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welcome back to conversations with great minds i'm speaking with american
historian economist and author johal
uh... die just before before the break read this
rather lengthy
my apologies
as a brother here from you but i thought you know it just this was so prophetic
you basically said that
sometime after two dozen fire around two thousand by would be facing this great
crisis and over the next twenty years we would be making decisions that would
literally determine the fate teacher varnish
new elaborate on that
we've we've seen this pattern again and again
in our history and every time
let's talk about that profit archetype again right
born after a great crisis coming of age spearheading the next awakening
redefining the culture just like there
usually their parents redefined institutionalized
uh... going into this period when we come up there interning which is kind of
the the eighties and nineties minner
recover the the mid-eighties disillusionment
of this the allows right
visited the unraveling leveling and this is a period where
wherein stupid where institutions feel weak individualism feel strong ego and a
bookstore today and all the all the positive but serve any myself an eye on
the negative both serve at the end of family and if community if that were all
used to that today
and then history tells us
that this third turning
ultimately issues into a fourth carry and a forest areas when suddenly
something hats a crisis suddenly begins to emerge
and institutions are rebuilt
ultimately from the ground up
are socially dot a
reinvented to met in many ways and
and and also now if there's not a crisis of fourth turning leader might even
invent winter to galvanize collective action
for example well it's interesting we decide with rahm emanuel remember when
he came in and he told her he told obama crisis is something we shouldn't waste
too you know let's use this
well actually obama was not very successful in using that but i think
he's all into the fourth turning mood which is basically you use a crisis
uh... f_d_r_ did it
link in there
these are fourth turning erin's there were eighty years apart
there were only a two year sarah commemoration was lowered and you go
back to their lower the greg laurie's troubling you mean you can go back
but she has the deal
during the fourth turning we reinvent the world institutionally
and after its stock
right there these different parts of the four th turning there's the
there's the completed apparition of social trust
then there's the beginning of the regenerate seaworthy any gravitate
around new institutions
and then finally there's the climax
the greatest adverse circumstance whether it's
our foreign enemy whether it's economic depression whatever it is we surmount
and then there's finally the resolution if the signing of treaties the building
avail institutions
new world war two
that was you know the great depression and world war two and finally what ended
it
it was
the united nations the i_m_f_ value was britain words it was the world bank it
was all these institutions
unlike the end of world war one we wanted to remake the world and order the
world and we did
u_s_ lasted for a long period of spreading yourselves
the fibers for structure you know uh... grave inciting incident the rest of
complications crisis climax resolutions
and i'd said it was a little shocking
embalmed i'm wondering three we reinvented
the world's in november light of the
the enlightenment in the seventeen seventies by creating the united states
reinvented the diocese went from a
a weak central government his strong by central government and flip the role of
states with the civil war would literally reinvent america the great
depression franklin roosevelt reinvent america just ten years earlier the
walker court supreme court had ruled the child labor laws minimum wage laws you
the right unions were all unconstitutional
with f_d_r_ literally flipped upside down and we had
roughly eighty years of hosts
roosevelt lately even reagan's efforts notwithstanding drawback
where do we go and this turning what is this reinvention going to be well the
possibilities of it
the possibilities are obviously enormous i mean the united states plays
the united states is an empire and it plays in three overall in the week
we we we protect the sea lanes we judi kane in your intervene in issues all
over the world i mean the the increasingly in indian official for
that the everyone speaks english here the english in the way is the it is
becoming the official language and
and so that's why the first turning will affect the entire world i mean it will
have obvious global implications
the the thing that i think here is the key that people should know
is the whereas before the fourth ring starts
we kept always go back and say what we could have predicted what set it off
in the nineteen twenties
we could in fact some did predict based huge stock market crash right
our people did predict
bom bay a
a president who would be to some extent anti-slavery and perhaps a certain
amount of secessionist sentiment within the cell
but no one would have predicted
the destruction on the scale of the civil war
no one would have predicted
in nineteen twenty five go back to the scopes trial nineteen twenty five
to anyone at that time the predicted america's role
in nineteen forty-five looking ahead to enter three years before he wrote the
declaration of independence thomas jefferson wrote
you know the the rights of the british american citizens i think they wouldn't
you know how to be a citizen of the so here's here's our point
poverty-stricken
public history speeds up huge changes which they are n imaginable today in
washington we think
allegra sticks five years just to pass the most me your bill which i'll get to
water down the compromises
under the threat
of crisis under the threat of historical urgency
and sudden impending events which we feel that we cannot escape
suddenly we're impelled act much faster make decisions
in which you have abroad
you know wealth is is his transferred income is transferred to the extent
there was taken you know decades before
that suddenly happens history
moves fast
institution suddenly become fluid has become malleable
this is this is the nature of a fourth turning and
again you could predict
touch it off
you can never predict
the world i think of the year
of the late twenty points
and that will be on the other side of our current fourth turning
and it could be a time of tragedy as you were saying total war i happen as people
uh... five you know what what what what what do we have done with a weapon of
mass destruction doing with the civil war if we had had a
i think just ask that question is answered you-know-what
what either side would have done with such a weapon
what what do we have done with that during the world war two
well in fact we invented our brightest scientists when that such a weapon and
we used it
uh... i think
that's that
and then you look at our next fourth ring right where we are a have them in
fact we are all different kinds of such weapons so
that's the dark side
then there's the positive side and that is a fourth turning of the time
when we clear away all the institution of the brave we reinvent the
institutions that really service
whether it's fiscal policy whether its economy stable economy rebuild the
middle-class protecting the environment
whatever we're talking that suddenly it works
and that's why the hero archetype
that helps invent announced creates this
becomes a renowned for the rest of their lives that's why they become so
institutionally powerful
because later generations differ
to their obvious power
and they're obvious skillet there you know the date and developed these
institutions
he was the parallel i wanted to make notice hal whenever we talk about
politics are institutionalized in america we generally say
postwar
right since world war two
but when we're talking about the culture
retirement entertainment we're talking about the interior world
we say since the sixties stripes
and that's because
the profit architect coming of age spells ground zero for the inner world
the hero architect coming of age spells out ground zero or years they're up
for the political institutional world
this fourth turning is giving resetting the clock to your zero
not on the cultural
not on the religious world
bet on the institutional political world that's coming up
and we have a generation coming of age now the moa needles
who in many ways
not entirely appreciated yet
are the perfect generation for this role
that's interesting
a it has been observed
it may perhaps armistice new writings
the united states in germany both experience world-wide crisis the
nineteen thirties and one of the significant differentiates between the
two was that we had f_d_r_'s president germany had
had hitler's chancellor and had those roles been reversed we might have
actually seen history be completely different on two different continents
is that is there anything to that your mind and and and it is the current state
of political leadership important
it is there there were actually where people in the nineteen thirties sinclair
lewis of water actually wrote a novel about heard about the dangers of
the cabinet was about the dangers of fascism and f_d_r_ publicly worried
about
father coughlin and you will i know what else is going off a so so silly
they did
i mean it did and then both societies you had a very civic-minded uniform
wearing brought generation neo coming of age
this was
at here is the year is an important point remember and that is
it's not that history is for a game the events are not for a game accident of
history can always happen
and staples and has asked me that how can history be predetermine how do you
know when there's an attack on pearl harbor sec
and my answer is that when you look at history carefully
you see that it's not
the accident
that determines history
it's our response
to the accident and as a function of the general attitude of who's in charge in
what's the mood of the time
the blue sitting here with sign for the norm is loss of civilian lives have
gotten premeditated act of war in in indicted near the end of world war one
there is a roman telegram
immuno germans wiping codes with mexico
we still couldn't get in america in the war
intel for another year it was an enormously controversial warren soon as
it was over every american soldier came up and we dad never again another war
contrast that with pearl harbor
the next day we declare war almost unanimously in congress
not only against japan because germany when you're in private
van damme and weak
overnight regional america
so that all those plans producing ford
company armada layers and all those other things were suddenly now freezing
tanks and jeeps and liberty ships and so on
that is a fourth turning merit
another words the move
of society
prepare is it to react
to any sparking history in a certain way sos twenty eleven we have about three
minutes twenty eleven
how close are we harp how long will it take
what should we be looking for
well we are definitely in the in the first stage
of a fourth turning which is the evaporation of social trust we we've
seen levels of dissatisfaction in distrustful tolliver public institutions
i'm unresolved emotional was broke on both sides and ended the boomers are
still totally into their culture wars you know mode
the next stage will be
in the face of a real crisis this could be another meltdown of financial markets
the the disappearance of the euro
this could be something happening in the streets of our news get block any there
are all kinds of accidents out there waiting shabazz just-announced right
the wells christopher right so we can say that anything can happen
in the face of that
begins the regeneration
and the regenerate sees when we say
time has run out
we can't differnt delay any more
you know i have a cheery three array quantitative easing three industry
chartres weekend inflate our way too much
now it's time to bite the bullet
and suddenly
the coral stop
the hope begins to rebuild at a time which will at the time see parallax were
not sure we can make it
that becomes in a way the great swing all the way up to the climate and that's
where reinvent the world of news that's going to reinvent the wheel venereal
fact know-how thanks so much for being
list thank thank you for your belly and that's really were called reports there
are such exception a lot of four times what they were put on a very good for
their old stuff but he's a very nice