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who's gonna win that's the bigger question right
whatever election let's give you all the numbers
national model wrote
president obama
waddell eight forty seven point nine before six point eight now this hoping
imposed
it's not their campaign
in on the numbers
what their pollster does is it combines all the different national
polls okay
so now lives the popular vote does early matter it is not how elections are
decided in america
but is interesting they present oh mama
has stopped mitt romney's momentum nationwide and has regained
uh... the momentum on his own he used to be trailing in that
until very recently so right now
got a little bit of a b uh... lead in the popular vote
now of course
much more poorly za swing states most important was ohio so i was he doing
that if you combine all the polls as ivan impose those
forty nine point one
before he five-point seven
well over three points
for president no bother now we say singing in and i mean twelve right
uh... but it is outside the margin of error
and as tight as these elections are
that is a pretty solidly in other words if i was on the ground inside i'd be in
mid panic
and in fact
i've seen these elections
and we've seen them over and over again as much as one poll but was one poll is
out
can overcome
accommodation of all those polls
that means you're going to do so scott
and right now the thing about alternative career paths
so now that's all i have for you i a lot very important swing state as well
how's he doing over there forty eight point six to forty five point nine for
president obama
so how's he doing in when i see is the most important
set of swing states
always
all high o wisconsin iowa and nevada now we told you to all of those let me show
you combination that will clear politics is dot is a different website that
combines the polls
there we have all bomb up by five in ohio
wisconsin is up by three i waz up by five even better than the argument was
combination bozeman just showed you
nevada he's up by four if you wins all four of those states plus the solemnly
blue states you have two hundred seventy seven electoral votes
and when his second term in fact
he doesn't mean i walk and nobody he only needs one of those states and you'd
be eight to seventy one at that point
and still get reelected now let's go to the third
as said people that come by in the polls in the different factors
as they saw over the new york times
well this he have a different analysis of the two we just quoted you nope
in fact this is even stronger
expected electoral votes from president obama three hundred and seven point two
to run these two hundred and thirty point eight of course they don't get the
small points that is that ab ridge to present all mama's near three hundred
and seven he blew him out
okay
now chance of waiver present all bomb a day before the election
eighty six point three percent
this why the conservative so mad at me so like how could you do has got a bath
but that is that i don't want to recall or
but the reality is this is not his opinion
it is a combination of the polls in the different factors that he has combined
to come up with that number and obviously his whole career rides on it
so these wrong
he will be embarrass it will cost them
perhaps jobs money et-cetera et-cetera
he's not doing this
before any bias or anything that is the only because he had hoped that it's
he's on the right analysis and by the way
glass omron he got forty nine of the fifty states
correct
that's why he's now with the new york times now
uh... when it goes to the popular vote
heat is present on bomb was getting older women
according to a again the numbers in the polling that at this for his legacy
before though
day before the election
uh... president all bala fifty point six to forty eight point five almost a
two-point lead their little surprised by that that's a little larger than
every other poll that i've seen on that issue
how about health
fourth set of numbers here
we showed you those three
now entry in trading is where they'd better on
uh... that outcome of the election
answers his money on the line and markets are pretty good at predicting
which we think zero in fact
this is been
fairly accurate not because i am undersell yasmin stunningly accurate
in other elections as they get every state right
of course not but they have been very very good in the last three elections
and right now
uh... the better sap reso bomb at sixty seven point three percent
andromeda thirty two point eight percent
when you combine all of those numbers it seems obvious
president all bombing is signifi at least favored
to win this election
in fact when you hit all those numbers it would be shocking
if he didn't win this election