Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
well it's a real pleasure
to be here and i have a chance just to meet with you and talk about some of the
problems that were facing
that some of these problems are local summer national summer global
but they're all tied together
they're tied together with arithmetic near athletic isn't very difficult
and what i hope to do is i hope to be able to convince you
that the greater shortcoming of the human race is our inability
to understand the exponential function
so you say what what's the exponential function
this is a mathematical function that you would write down if you're going to
describe the size of anything that was growing sadly if you had something
growing five percent per year
you'd write the exponential function to show how large that growing quality wise
year after year
and so we're talking about a situation
where the time that's required for the growing quantity
to increased by a fixed fraction is a constant
five percent per year the five percent is a fixed fraction
the per years of fixed length of time now that's what we want to talk about it
ordinary steady
beloved takes a fixed length of time to grow five percent
that follows a takes a longer fixed length of time to go a hundred percent
now that longer times called a doubling time
we need to know how you calculate the doubling time and it's easy
you just take the number seventy divided by the percent growth per unit time in
that gives you the doubling times for example five percent per year you divide
the five in the seventy to find that growing quantity will double in size
every fourteen years
well you might ask whether the seventy come from the answers that's
approximately one hundred multiplied by the natural logarithm of two
if you wanted the time to triple you'd use the natural logarithm of three so
it's all very logical
but you don't have to remember where it came from if you'll just remember
seventy
now i wish we could get every person to make this mental calculation every time
we see a percent growth rate of anything in a news story
for example if you saw a story that so things have been growing seven percent
per year for several recent years you wouldn't bat an eyelash
but when you see a headline that says crime has doubled in the back a hearsay
mine
heavens what's happening
on what is happening
seven percent growth per year
divide the seven in the seventy the doubling time is ten years
but notice if you're going to write a headline you'd never write crime growing
seven percent per year because
most people wouldn't know what it really means
now do you know what seven percent really means let's take another example
from colorado the cost of an all-day lift ticket to ski avail
has been growing about seven percent per year ever since vale first opened in
nineteen sixty three in at that time you paid five dollars
for an all day with tick
now what's a doubling time for seven percent growth
ten years so what was the cost ten years later in nineteen seventy three
ten years later in nineteen eighty three
ten years later in nineteen ninety three
and what we have to look forward to
now this is what seven percent means
most people don't have a clue
well let's look at a generic graph of something that's growing steadily
after one doubling time the growing quantities up the place is a natural
size to doubling time that's up to four times its initial size
then it goes to eight sixteen thirty two sixty four hundred twenty eight two
fifty six five twelve
in just ten dollar-billion times itself
thousand times larger than planet started you can see
if you try to make a graph about on ordinary graph paper the grapple
golbright through the ceiling
now let me give you an example to show the enormous numbers you get with just a
modest number of doubling
legend has it that the game of chess was invented by a mathematician who work for
a cane
became a very pleased is that i want to reward you on the mathematicians said my
needs are modest
please take my new transport and on the first quarter place one grain of wheat
on the next wear double the one to make to a man expert double that to to make
for just keep babbling tell you double for every square that will be an
adequate pain
probably can get sticking carter's foolish man
i was ready to give him a real reward only asked for just a few grains of
wheat
let's see what's involved in this we know terry trains on the fourth quarter
now i can get this number eight by multiplying three twos together hits two
times two times to its one to less than the number of the square
now that follows in each case so on the last square i'd find the number of
grains by multiplying sixty-three tunes together
now let's look at the way the totals build up when we have one grand on the
first part of the total on the borders one
we had to grains that makes a total three we put on for brains have a total
of seven
seven is a grammar so maybe it's a grand less than three twos multiplied together
fifteen is a grain less than four two's multiplied together will that continues
in each case so when we're done the total number of grains of the one grain
less than the number i got mauled applying sixty-four tunes together in my
question is
how much we did is that
you know would at the end i spy out here in the studio
would have filled the building
would recover the county to adapt for two meters how much we do we talking
about
the answer is it's roughly
four hundred
times the nineteen ninety
worldwide harvest of week
now that could be more if we when humans have harvested
in the entire history here it is too hard to get such a big number
over a simple we just started with one grade but we let the number gross
federal income of the double them near sixty three times
there's something else that's very important to growth and anne babbling
time is greater than the total of all of the preceding growth
for example when we put a greens on the fourth square the eight is larger than
the total of seven that were already there
when we put thirty two brains on the six where the thirty two is larger than the
total of thirty one that were already there every time the growing quantity
doubles it takes more than all that you used in all of the pre ceding growth
now let's translate that into the energy crisis here's an ad
from the year nineteen seventy five and have asked the question
could america run on electricity
america depends on electricity our need for electricity actually doubles every
ten or twelve years
that's an accurate reflection of a very long history of steady growth
of the electric industry in this country growth at a rate of around seven percent
per year which goes with doubling every ten years
now with all our history of growth expected the growth of just go on
forever
fortunately it stopped
not because anyone understood the arithmetic it's tough for other reasons
but let's ask what they have
suppose the growth had continued
and we would see here
the thing that we just on the chessboard
in the ten years following the appearance of this ad in that decade
the amount of electrical energy that we would have consumed in this country
would have been greater than the total of all of the electrical energy
we have ever consumed in the entire preheating history
of the steady growth
of that industry in this country
now did you realize than anything is completely acceptable a seven percent
growth per year could give such an incredible consequence that in just
ten years
you'd use more than the total
of all that have been used in all of pre ceding history
well that's exactly what president carter was referring to in his famous
speech on energy
one of the statements was this
he said in in in each of those decades
more or was consumed
than in all of mankind's previous history
not by itself that's a stunning statement
now you can understand it
the president was telling us a simple consequence of the arithmetic of seven
percent growth each year
in world oil consumption and that was the historic figure
up until the nineteen seventies
now there's another beautiful consequence of this arithmetic
if you take seventy years is a period of time and note that that's roughly one
human life time
than any of percent growth continued stanley for seventy years gives you an
overall increased by a factor
that's very easy to calculate
for example four percent per year
you find the factor biomol applying for tuesday gathered to factor of sixteen
now a few years ago one of the newspapers here in boulder quiz the nine
members of the boulder city council
and ask them what rate of growth of boulders population do you think it
would be good
to have in the coming years
now the nine members of the boulder city council gave answers ranging from below
of one percent per year
now that happens to match the present rate of growth of the population of the
united states we are not of zero population growth right now the number
of americans
is increasing by more than three million people every year
no member of the city council said voters should grow less rapidly than the
united states is growing
now the highest answer any councilmember date was five percent per year
well you know i felt compelled i had to write him a letter to speak it shoud
novel
the five percent growth
for just seventy i'd get remember when seventy years used to seem like an awful
long time that doesn't seem so long now
what i mean boulders population would increased by a
factor of thirty two
that is where today we have one overloaded sewer treatment plant in
seventy years we need thirty-two overloaded sewer treatment plants
now did you realize that anything is completely all-american is five percent
growth per year
could give such an incredible consequence
in such a modest period of time
our city council people had zero understanding
of this very simple arithmetic
well a few years ago i had a class of non science students were interested in
problems of science in society
we spent a good deal of time learning to use some are more remain graph paper
is printed in such a way that these equal intervals along the vertical scale
it represented increased by a factor of ten
so you go from a thousand e ten thousand two hundred thousand
and the reason he used a special paper is that on this paper
a straight line represents steady growth
uh... we worked a lot of examples i said to the students let's talk about
inflation let's talk about seven percent per year
it wasn't this high when we did this it's been a higher since then
unfortunately it's more now
and i said to the students as i can say to you you have roughly sixty years life
expectancy ahead of you
let's see what some common things will cost if we have sixty years of seven
percent annual inflation
well the students found that a fifty-five sent down my gasoline will
cost thirty five dollars and twenty cents
two fifty for a movie will be a hundred and sixty dollars
the fifteen dollars sacher groceries at my mother used to buy for a dollar and a
quarter of that'll be nine hundred and sixty dollars
a hundred-dollar suit of clothes six thousand four hundred dollars a four
thousand dollar auto mobile will cost a quarter of a million dollars anna forty
five thousand dollar home will cost nearly three million dollars
well i gave the students the state of these came from a blue cross blue shield
abby had appeared in newsweek magazine
me add gave these figures to show the cost escalation of gallbladder surgery
in the year since nineteen fifty one that surgery cost three hundred and
sixty one dollars
i said make a semi logarithmic plot let's see what's happening
distance found that the first four points lined up on a straight line
who slope indicated inflation of about six percent per year
but the fourth fifth and six rana steeper lime almost ten percent
inflation per year
well i said to the students run then steeper line on out of the year two
thousand
let's get an idea what gallbladder surgery might
cost
the answer is twenty five thousand dollars
the lesson that is awfully clear
if you're thinking about gallbladder surgery do it now
in the summer of nineteen eighty six
the news reports indicated that the world population
had reached a number five billion people growing at the rate of one point seven
percent per year
we reaction a one point seven might be to say that so small
nothing that could ever happen at one point seven percent per year so you
calculate the doubling time
you find it's only forty one years
more recently in nineteen ninety nine
we read that the world population had increased from five billion two six
billion people
the good news is that the growth rate had dropped from one point seven percent
per year to one point three percent per year
the bad news is that in spite of the drop in the growth rate the world
population today is increasing by something over eighty
million people every year
now if this modest current one point three percent per year
could continue in the world population would grow to a density of one person
per square meter
on the dry land surface of the earth and just seven hundred and eighty years
the mass of people would equal a mass of the earth and just twenty four hundred
years
now we can smile at those
we know they couldn't happen
this one makes for a cute cartoon the caption says excuse me sir
but i am prepared to make your rather attractive offer for your square
now there's a very profound lesson in that cartoon the lesson is the general
population growth is going to happen
now we can debate whether we like zero population growth and don't like it
it's gonna happen whether we debated or not whether we like it or not
it's absolutely certain people could not live with that density on the dry land
surface of the year
therefore today's high birth rates
will drop
today's low death rates will rise till they have exactly the same numerical
value
that will certainly be in a time short
compared to seven hundred and eighty years
so made here wondering what sort of options are available if we wanted to
address the problem
in the left-hand column i've listed some of those things that we should encourage
if we want to raise the rate of growth of population and in so doing make the
problem worse
just look at the list everything in the list is a sacred of motherhood
there's emigration
medicine public health sanitation
these are all devoted to the humane goals of lowering the death rate
and that's very important to me if it's my death or lowering
but then i have to realize that anything that just lowers the death rate
makes the population problem worse
there's peace
law-and-order
scientific agriculture's lowered the death rate did a famine that just makes
the population problem worse
the fifty five mile an hour speed limits saved thousands of lives
that makes the population problem worse clean air makes it worse
now in this column as some of the things we should encourage if we want to lower
the rate of growth of population and in so doing help solve the population
problem welders and stench in contraception abortion small families
stop immigration
disease war *** famine accidents
now smoking clearly raises the death rate
now that help solve the problem
well remember our conclusion from the cartoon of one person per square meter
we concluded the general population growth is going to happen
let's take that conclusion other terms and say it's obvious nature's going to
choose from the right hand list
and we don't have to do anything
be prepared to live with whatever nature chooses from that right-hand list
or we can exercise the one option that's open to office
and that option
is to choose first from the right hand lest we gotta find something here we go
out and campaign for
anyone here for promoting disease
we now have the capability of incredible war would you like more *** more
famine more accidents
well here we can see the human dilemma
because everything we regard as good makes the population problem worse
everything we regard as bad help solve the problem
welfare is a dilemma if
ever there was one
no one remaining question is education is a go on the left-hand column on the
right-hand column
might have to say that's far it's been firmly on the left-hand column that
wasn't done much about reducing
ignorance of the problem
and nature is already choosing from that right-hand list you read about the
aids epidemic
that's devastating the continent of africa i had a front back from zimbabwe
people he said are dying on the streets
nature's taking care of the problem
so when we start well it started in boulder colorado
here's our graph or boulders population
there's a nineteen fifty u_s_ census figured nineteen sixteen nineteen
seventy
in that twenty year period the average growth rate of boulders population was
about six percent per year
now we've been able to slow the growth someone there's a two thousand census
figure
well i'd like to ask the people let's
start with the two thousand census figures go another
seventy years one more human life time and i asked
what rate of growth of boulders population would we needed that seventy
years old at the end of seventy years boulders population
would equal today's population of your choice of major american cities
or boulder in seventy years could be as big as boston is today if we just grew
two point five eight percent per year
now if we thought detroit was a better model will have to shoot for three point
two seven percent per year
and remember the historic figure in the preceding slide six percent per year
if that could continue for one lifetime
boulder it would be larger than los angeles
now this is in boulder plus broomfield lewisville lafayette the other towns in
the county this is just boulder
well it's obvious you couldn't put
los angeles in the boulder valley therefore it's obvious boulders
population growth will stop
now the only question is
will we be able to stop it while there's still some open space
or will we wait until it's wall-to-wall
people and were all choking to death
now it's interesting to read what stress-strain
some years ago we read the doubling its population in ten years boulder is
indeed a stable
community
cynical world are they talking about you go on a hundred miles an hour
seven percent growth per year and doubling in less than ten years
when someone makes a anyhow take statement that were stable
we're standing still when i'm overly
they don't even understand
the meaning of the words that they put down on paper
well everyone saw somebody said but you know of bigger city might be a better
city
and i have to say wait a minute
we've already done that experiment we don't need to wonder what will be the
effect of growth fund boulder because boulder tomorrow
can be seen in los angeles today
and for the price of an airplane ticket we can step seventy years into the
future mc exactly what it's like
and what is it like
well here's an interesting headline
los angeles
that have lied probably has something to do
with this headline
book how're we doing in colorado
the denver post tells us that river growth capital of the u_s_a_ and proud
of it
the rocky mountain news tells us to expect another million people in the
front range in the next twenty years
but in the post there was an interesting story someone was quoted as saying
colorado has a three percent growth rate that's like a third world country with
no birth control
we stand for any
family planning assistance to countries
that have smaller population growth rates
and colorado harris
well as you can imagine
growth control is very controversial
and i trade in the letter from which
these quotations are taken
now this letter was written to me
by leading citizen of this community
he's a leading pro-parliament of controlled growth
now controlled growth just means growth
this man writes i take no exception to your arguments regarding exponential
growth
i don't believe the exponential argument is valid at the local level
so you see arithmetic doesn't hold in boulder
now i have to admit
that man has a degree from the university of colorado
it's not a degree in mathematics and science
or an engineering
let's look now at what happens when we have this kind of steady growth in a
finite environment bacteria grow by doubling in one bacterium divides to
become to the to divide to become four
before becoming sixteen and so on suppose we have bacteria that double the
number of this white every minute
suppose we put one of these bacteria in an empty bottle at eleven in the morning
and then observed that the bottles full it's well known
now there's our case of dust ordinary steady
it as a doubling time of one minute
it's in the finite environment of one bottle
i want to ask you three questions
number one at what time was the bottle half-full
well would you believe
eleven fifty nine one minute therefore trial because they double the number
every minute
and the second question
if you are an average bacterium that baba what time
would you first realize that you were running out of space
now think about this
this kind of steady growth is the centerpiece
of the national economy and out of the entire global economy think about
well let's just look at the last minutes in the bible
at twelve minutes for one minute before it's half-full two minutes before it's a
quarter full that i may ten a sixteenth
let me ask you at five minutes before twelve
when the bottles only three percent forum as ninety seven percent open space
just yearning for development
how many of you would realize that was a problem
now in the ongoing controversy over growth and boulders someone wrote to the
newspapers some years ago and said look
than any problem with population growth in boulder because the writer said
we have fifteen
times as much open spaces we've already used
so let me ask you what time was that in boulder
when the open space was fifteen times the amount of space we'd already is
the answer is it was four minutes before twelve
in boulder valley
well suppose attitude minutes before twelve some of the bacteria realize that
they're running out of space
so they're larger great search for new bottles
may search offshore
on the outer continental shelf in the over thrust belt than in the arcade
and they find three
models now that is a colossal discovery
that discovery is three times the amount of resources ever know about before
they now have four bottles
before the discover there's only one
now surely
this will give them a sustainable society
would you know what the third question is how long can the growth continue
as a result of this magnificent discovery
well let's look at the score at twelve noon one bottles filled there are three
to go
twelve oh one two bottles are filled their to go
and at twelve oh two all four are filled and that's the end of the line
if you don't need any more arithmetic than this
to evaluate the absolutely contradictory statements we've all heard and read
from experts
who tell us in one breath we can go on increasing our rates the consumption of
fossil fuels
in the next breath they say but don't worry
will always be able to make the discoveries of new resources that we
need to meet the requirements of that growth
with some years ago in washington are energy secretary observed
that in the energy crisis
we have a classic case of exponential growth
against a finite source
so let's look at some of these finite sources from the work
of the lake dr n kane harbor
we have here is some i log remain plot of world oil production
lines that approximately straight
for over a hundred years clear up here to the year nineteen seventy average
growth rate
very close to seven percent per year
so it's logical that school how much longer could that seven percent continue
well that's answered by the numbers on this table
in the top line the numbers tell us that in the year nineteen seventy three
world oil production was twenty billion barrels of total production and all of
history including that twenty was three hundred billion the remaining reserves
seventeen hundred billion
now those are data
the rest of this table is just calculated out assume that they have
stark seven percent growth
continued stanley each year following nineteen seventy three
exactly as it had been for the pre ceding one hundred years
now in fact the growth stopped
not because of the arithmetic it's not because opec raise their oil prices
so we're asking what are you
suppose the growth had continued let's go back to the year nineteen eighty one
by nineteen eighty one on the seven percent curve the total usage of all of
history would add up to five hundred billion barrels the remaining reserves
fifteen hundred billion
the reserves at that point of three
times the total of all that have been used in all of history
et cetera or miss reserve
but what time is that when the remaining reservist three times a total of all of
you used and all of history
the answer is
too
minutes before twelve
well we know for seven percent growth of doubling time is ten years we go from
nineteen eighty one to nineteen ninety one
by nineteen ninety one on the seven percent curve the total usage and all of
history would add up to a thousand billion barrels and be a thousand
billion left
at that point the remaining or would be equal in quantity through the total of
all that we had used in something like
a hundred and thirty years of the oil industry on the served by most measures
you'd say that is an enormous remaining reserve
but what time is
when the remaining reserve is
equal all that you used in all of history
the answer is it's one minute before twelve
so we go one more decade of the turn of the century that's like right now
that's one seven percent would finish using up the oil reserves of the year
now let's look at this in a very nice graphical way
suppose the area of this tiny rectangle represents all the oil we used on this
earth before nineteen forty
then in the decade of the forties we use this much that's equal to the total of
all that have been used in all of history
in a decade of the fifties we use this much that's equal to the total of all
that have been used in all of history in a decade of the sixties we use this
months and again that's equal to a total of all the preceding usage now here we
see graphically what president carter told us
now if that seven percent had continued through the seventies eighties and
nineties there is what we need
but that's all the oil there is
now there's a widely held belief that if you throw enough money holes on the
ground orderly sure to come up
rather we'll be discoveries in new orleans a_b_ major discovers but look
we have to discover this much new orleans we would have that seven percent
growth continue ten more years
well ask yourself what do you think he is the chance
the royal discovered after the close of our class today
will be an amount equal to the total of all that we've known about and all of
history
and then realize if all that new oil could be found
that would be sufficient to let the historic
seven percent growth continue ten
more
years
well it's interesting to read what the experts say there is an interview in
time magazine
with one of the most widely quoted or allexperts and all of texas they asked
him but haven't many of our bigger feels been drilled nearly dry
he responds anger still as much oil to be found in the u_s_ is as ever been
produced
now let's assume he's right
what kind is it
and the answer is it's one minute before twelve
i've read several things this guy's written i don't think he has any
understanding of this very
simple arithmetic
well in the crisis back in the seventies had such as this appeared
this is from the american electric power company it was a bit reassuring sort of
thing now don't worry too much
because we're sitting on half of the world's known supply of coal
on now for over five hundred years
where did that five hundred your finger come from
well it may have had its origin in this report to the committee on interior an
insular affairs
of the united states senate because in that report we find this sentence
at current levels of output in recovery of these american coal reserves can be
expected to last
more than five hundred years
there is one of the most dangerous statements in the literature
it's dangerous because it's true
but it isn't the truth that makes it dangerous the danger lies in the fact
that people take the sentence apart
they just say call last five hundred years
they forget the caveat with which the sentence started and what were those
opening words
levels now what does that mean
it means if an only we maintain zero growth
of coal production
in this country
so let's look at a few numbers
we go to the annual energy review published by
the u_s_ department of energy
they give this figure as the cold demonstrated reserve base and that
carries a footnote that says about half the demonstrated reserve base
is estimated to be recoverable
you cannot recover and use a hundred percent of the cold it's in the ground
so this number is half of this number and we'll come back to those in just a
moment
now the report also tell those that in the year nineteen seventy one we were
mining coal in this country at this rate
twenty years later in nineteen ninety one were reminding at this rate put
those numbers together
and the average growth rate of coal production in those twenty years was two
point eight six percent per year
and so we have to ask for how long could a resource last
if you had steady growth in the rate of consumption till the last bit of that
was used
well are just show you that equation further exploration time i'll tell you
it takes first-year college calculus to derive that equation so it can be very
difficult
you know i have the feeling that must be dozens of people in this country of had
first-year college calculus
but let me suggest i think that equations probably the best kept
scientific secret of the century
now let me show you all
if you use that equation to calculate the life expectancy
of the
reserve base or the one-half the reserve base is estimated to be recoverable
for different steady rates a growth you find if the growth rate is there or
their small estimate would go about two hundred and forty years the larger
undergo close to five hundred years
so that report to the congress was correct
but look what we get only plugins steady growth
back in the nineteen seventy's we had national goal of achieving eight percent
per year growth rate in coal production in the united states
if that could be achieved and continued call one last between thirty seven forty
six years
president carter cut federal roughly in half hoping to reach four percent per
year if that could continue cold last between fifty nine and seventy five
years
here's that two point eight six that we just saw the average for a recent twenty
year period
if that could continue call would run out between seventy two and ninety four
years
that's within the life expectancy of children born today
the only way we're going to get anywhere near this widely quoted five hundred
year figure
is to do sign all taneous lee
too
highly improbable things number one we've got to figure out how to use a
hundred percent of the cold it's in the ground
number two
we've gotta figure out how to have five hundred years of zero growth of coal
production
now these are simple fact
just look at those numbers
i got a report recently
from the coal fields and kentucky west virginia virginia
these giant by two men as coal fields that supply in large fraction of the
electricity in the eastern united states
they estimate that maybe they have another thirty years of coal mining
before it will be come on economical
remind their
and then what will we do when we wanna switch on the lines
let's now go back and note that in the nineteen seventy's there was great
national concern about energy
that this concern disappeared in the eighties
now the concerns about energy in the seventies prompted experts journalists
and scientists
to assure the american people that there was no reason to be concerned so let's
go back now and look at some of those assurances from the seventies so we can
see what to expect
as the energy crisis returns
here is the director of the energy division of the oak ridge national
laboratories
he's telling us how expensive it is too important
telling us we must have big increases in are used to call
under these conditions he estimates america's core reserves are so huge they
could last a minimum of three hundred years
probably a maximum of a thousand years
now you've just seen the facts
now you see what an expert tells us
and what can you conclude
there was a three-hour television special on c_b_s_ on energy the reporter
said they're the lowest estimate
we have enough coal for two hundred years where the highest enough for more
than a thousand years
you've just seen the facts
now you see what it journalist tells after careful study
and what can you conclude
in the journal of chemical education on the page for a high school chemistry
teachers
an article written by the scientific staff of the journal
we read that are prove coal reserves are enormous and they give a figure these
could satisfy present u_s_ energy needs for nearly a thousand years
let's still long division you take the call and say is their divide by what was
then the current rate of consumption
you get a hundred and eighty years
now they didn't say current rate of consumption they said president u_s_
energy needs
cold today supplies about one-fifth around twenty percent of the energy that
we use in this country
so if you'd like to calculate how long this quantity of coal consent us five
present u_s_ energy needs
you have to mollify vista nominated by five when you do that you get thirty six
years they said nearly a thousand years
newsweek magazine and a cover story on energy setup present rate of consumption
we have enough coal for six hundred and sixty six point five years
and the point five means they think it'll run out in july instead of january
now if you're around that often say roughly six hundred years six hundred is
close enough to five hundred ally within the uncertainty of our knowledge of the
size of the resource
so with that observation that is a correct statement at present rates
meeting zero growth
we have a tough call for around six hundred years
the whole point of the story that this lead into was that we have to have rapid
growth in coal consumption in the united states
notes obvious is that if you have the growth the writing about
it won't last as long as they said it would last was there oh growth
he never mention this i wrote on the long letter column i thought this was a
serious misrepresentation
to give the readers the feeling that we can have all the growth of the writing
about and still have call around for six hundred and fifty years
i got back on nice form letter it had nothing to do
with what i've tried to explain to them
i gave this talk about high school in omaha after the talk the highschool
physics teacher came to me and they had a book or the set of using this
i hadn't seen it he said look at this
we've got a call coming out of our ears
as reported by forbes magazine now that's a problem a business magazine
united states has four hundred thirty-seven billion tons of known coal
reserves that is a good figure
this is equivalent to a lot of b_t_u_'s
or it's enough energy to keep one hundred million
large electric generating plants
going for the next eight hundred years or so
now the teacher said to me how can that be true
that's one large electric generating plant for every two people in the united
states said of course it can't be true it's absolute nonsense
but still long division to see how crazy it is
so you take the coal a sales there divide by what was then the current rate
of consumption you find you couldn't keep that rate up for a hundred years we
hardly have five hundred large electric generating plants they said it would be
good for a hundred million such plans
time magazine tells us them the needs of the tabs of appalachia and the ohio
valley
and under the sprawling strip mines of the west
like old seems rich enough to meet the country's power need for centuries
no matter how much energy consumption may grow
and so i give you a very fundamental observation don't believe any prediction
of the life expectancy of a non renewable resource
interview
have confirmed the prediction by repeating the calculation
as a corollary we have to know
that the more optimistic the prediction the greater is the probability that is
based on faulty arithmetic orono arithmetic apple
again from time magazine
energy investors agree
the to achieve some form of energy self-sufficiency the u_s_ one's mind all
the call that account
now think about that for just a moment
let me paraphrase it
the more rapidly we consume our resources the more self-sufficient we'll
be
isn't that what it says
with david brower call this the policy of strength to exhaustion
now here's an example of strength through exhaustion here is william simon
energy adviser to the president of the united states
simon says we should be trying to get as many holes drilled as possible to get
the proven oil reserves
the more rapidly we can get the last about oil up out of the ground and
finish using it
the better off will be
well let's look at doctor roberts graph for oil production in the lower forty
eight states
there was a long period of approximately steady growth indicated by the straight
line on the semi logarithmic plot
but for quite a while now production has fallen below the growth curve ardham and
continued on out this growth curve until the nineteen seventies
now it's obvious the difference between those two percent to be made up with
imports
and it was in early nineteen ninety five
that the news told us that the year nineteen ninety four was the first year
in our nation's history in which we had to
important moral when we were able to get out of our own ground
rob maybe you're wondering does that make any sense to imagine that we could
have steady growth the rate of consumption of a resource
till the last bit of it was used and then the rate of consumption would
plunge abruptly to zero
i say no that does not make sense you say all right why bother us and with the
calculation of this exploration time
my answers this every segment of our society our business leaders government
leaders political leaders
the local level state-level national level everyone aspires
to maintain a society in which all measures of material consumption
continued to grow stanley
year after year after year world without end
now since that so central to everything we do
we ought to know where it would lead
and the other hand we should recognize that his are better model
we turn again to the work of the late doctor herbert
he s plotted the rate of consumption of resources have already expired he finds
yes
there is an early period a steady growth the rate of consumption
but then the rate goes to a maximum comes back down in a nice symmetric bell
shaped curve
twenty-fifth this curve to the date on u_s_ oil production
back in the nineteen seventies he found that at that point we were right about
there we were one half way through
that enormous resource
now that's roughly what that texas expert said
in the quotation we start earlier
now let's see what it means
it means that from now on domestic oil production can only go downhill and it's
downhill all the rest of the way
and it doesn't matter what they say inside-the-beltway in washington d_c_
now that means we can work hard and put some bumps on the downhill side of the
curve you'll see their bumps on the appeals side
the debate is heating up over drilling in the arctic wildlife refuge
i've seen the estima
that they might
find three point two billion barrels of oil up there
three point two billion is the area of that little tiny square
that's less than one years consumption
in the united states
now let's look at the curve in this way
the area under the entire curve
represents the entire resource of u_s_ petroleum
before any of it was used
now that area's been divided here into three parts on the shaded on the left
that's the or we've taken from the ground we've used it it's gone
this radical shaded band that's the or we drove until we found that were
pumping on it today
shaded in green on the right is the undiscovered or
we have a very good ways now of estimating how much oil remains
undiscovered
this is the undiscovered oil this is the r_ word looking for and all those places
were growing is going on
this is the or we've got to find
if we're going to make it down the curve on schedule
where everyone saw someone reminds me that a hundred years ago someone did a
calculation
and predicted
that the u_s_ to be out of oil perhaps in twenty five years we obviously were
not
the calculation must have been wrong therefore of course all calculations
were wrong
when i let's understand what they did a hundred years ago
this band of discovered are allotted years ago was way over here someplace
at that point they had no idea of how much oil was undiscovered
so they just took the discovered oil divided
byob rapidly was ending consume
come up with twenty five years
now it's clear you have to make a new calculation every time you make a new
discovery
we're not asking today how long will the discovered oil last
were asking about the discovered and the undiscovered we're now asking about the
rest
of the oil
and what is the geological survey telus
back in nineteen eighty four
they said that the estimated supply in the u_s_ from undiscovered resources and
demonstrated reserves
is thirty six years
at present rate of production
or nineteen years in the absence of imports
five years later in nineteen eighty nine
that's thirty six years is down to thirty two years
the nineteen years is down to sixteen years of the numbers are holding
together as we marched down
the right hand side of the harbor occur
summit here wonder why didn't somebody tell us this
he was back in nineteen fifty six
doctor robert addressed a convention of petroleum geologist an engineer's who
told him that his calculations
led him to conclude that the peaks of u_s_ oil and gas production that you
just saw
can be expected to occur between nineteen sixty six in nineteen seventy
one
no one took him seriously
so let's see what's happened
the data here
are from the department of energy
so this is u_s_ oil production we see a long period of approximately steady
growth
here's the year nineteen fifty six one doctor robert did his analysis
and he said at that time that the peak whitaker between nineteen sixty six in
nineteen seventy one
well the peak occurred in nineteen seventy
it was followed by a very rapid decline
then the alaska pipeline started delivering its first oral and there was
a partial recovery
that production has now pecan everything's going downhill in unison
and when i go to a spreadsheet on my computer at home
and i find the parameters of a curve that is the best fit to be scattered
u_s_ data
from that best fit curve it looks to me as though we have consumed
three quarters of the recoverable oil that was ever in our ground
and we're now coasting downhill on that last twenty five percent
of the oil
well we have to ask what's the department of energy doing about this
and here in nineteen ninety eight we read about our new comprehensive
national energy strategy a set of policy goals
that include
halting the slide
in u_s_ oil production
by the year two thousand five
now ask yourself what do you think is the chance
that we can do anything more than put a little bomb
on the downhill side
vicar
but what does this mean
let's look at the definition of modern agriculture it's the use of land
to convert petroleum into food
and we can see the end
of the patrol
we have to ask about world
patrolling
and in nineteen seventy-two doctor harbor produce this curve and he
suggested that he thought the peak of world production would occur around
nineteen ninety five
so we have to go to the data and see has happened
hear again from our department of energy
but this now is world oil production
we can see a long period of steady growth of our production there was quite
a major drop right there than there is a recovery than a simple an enormous drop
and a partial recovery here so it's clear we're not yet over the p
each of those drops that you saw there
was due to a price hike from okay
and i think that those drops in delaying the arrival of the peak
are the reason for
the fact that the people occurred later than doctor herbert have projected to be
well i go back to my spreadsheet on my computer at home
and now in addition to just fitting the curve
since the curve has not started down i can get a very good fit for the
her for the area under the for
what i have to do then is to go to the geology literature
and find out what is the fm consensus figure among geologist as to the total
amount of oil
will ever find on this for
well this consensus figures two thousand billion barrels now that's uncertain it
has an uncertainty maybe forty percent plus or minus forty percent as a very
uncertain figure
but that's the consensus figure if i do that and do the fed there is a curve
the curve as a p
in the year two thousand four
now fight
say let's assume there's fifty percent more oil than the geology consensus
them if it gives me the year two thousand nineteen for the peak and if i
assume that's twice as much oil as a consensus figure than the peaks back to
the year two thousand thirty
to look at those kurds
in your life expectancy you are going to see
of world oil production and you've got to ask yourself
what's life going to be like on this earth
when we have
production declining
and we have a growing population and a growing per capita demand for a while
just think about this is an rocket science
this is something that we can all think about
in the march issue of
scientific american for the year nineteen ninety eight
there was a major article by two real petroleum geologist
ones in england ones and friends
they said that their estimate for the speak
was that it would occur but for the year two thousand tam
so their estimate and the one i'm showing you here that i've made
these are in the same ballpark
and we're talking about the same kind of numbers
now that i'm alice's that was in scientific american cost a lot of
discussion
and in particular in fortune magazine in nineteen ninety nine
commented on the scientific analysis that was done by petroleum geologist
we find in a merit is professor of economics at m_i_t_ and saying that this
analysis is a piece of fallish in us
the world will never run out of oil
not in ten thousand years
and so we have not a scientist telling us a petroleum reserves are greater than
ever before in history
and we have geologist telling us
there were finding only one barrel of new oil for every four barrels we take
out of the ground and consume
is going on here
you see the figures
here in nineteen ninety nine
u_s_ lower forty eight st january are a lot but hit up fifty year low exactly
what you expected you're going down the right hand side of the harbor occur
one of doctor herbert's favor graphs is this one
missus on a time scale from five thousand years our goal to five thousand
years in the future
in the age of fossil fuels a little blip in the middle of the screen
anti-war
well we have to ask about new discoveries
here in nineteen ninety three
we read about the largest oil discovery in the gulf of mexico on the past twenty
years
an estimated seven hundred million barrels of oil now that's a lot of oil
but a lot compared to what
at that point we were consuming in the united states sixteen point six million
barrels of oil everyday
do the long division and you find that entire discovery would serve our needs
for forty two days and that's the biggest discovery
they've made in the gulf of mexico and twenty years
on the front page of the wall street journal in nineteen ninety seven
we read about the new hibernian oil field off the south coast of
newfoundland
please notice one line in the headline now it will last
fifty
years
and let's go to that story in the wall street journal and read about the
hibernians field
it's one of the largest oil discoveries in north america and decades
it should deliver its first or by the end of the year at least twenty more
feels may follow offering well over a billion barrels of high quality crude
promising a steady flow of oil will be just a quick tanker ran
away from the energy thirsty east coast
they may find up
billion payrolls of oil in that under cedras deposit
so i a billion barrels we're not consuming something like eighteen
million barrels a day do the long division
and that whole supply
would need meet our needs in the united states for fifty six days
and what did that headline saying
it said fifty years
well some people favors nothing to worry about
and here we have a very prominent figure who says that we should
grow corn distillate end ethanol
and we can run the entire fleet of u_s_ vehicles on ethanol derived from corn
and in support of this e says today ethanol production displaces over forty
three and a half million barrels
of imported oil annually
now that sounds pretty good
and tell you think
now the first thing that you have to do is that ok forty three and a half
million
fraction is that of the annual consumption of petroleum in vehicles in
the united states
the answer is it's one percent
yet at the mall apply corn production devoted ethanol by a factor one hundred
just to make the numbers come out right and i've seen this suggestion that that
would take over and they all of the agricultural land in the united states
now the second problem is
it takes diesel fuel to plow the ground to plant the corn
it takes fossil fuels to make the fertilizer to make the corn grow it
takes more diesel fuel to tend the corner of the harvest of corn it takes
more energy to do the distillation you finally get a gallon of ethanol
you will be lucky
if there's as much energy in the gallon of ethanol as it took
to produce it
so loser
yet this crisis don't worry
everything will be all right
there's a lesson here in the lesson is that we cannot let other people
do our thinking forks
let's take another look at world oil production
now the graph ears slightly different from the one i showed earlier
what i'm showing here as per capita production of oil
which means that at every point i take the world production divided by the
world population that year
now the scale here on the vertical axis is liters per person each day
there's the number two not really does a person of the eight
two leaders is about half a gallon
not notice that the peak occurred in the nineteen seventies
and it's been going downhill and in the nineteen seventies it was a little over
two leaders of person the day
and now it's down to about one point seven meters per person he'd stay
so we can say with confidence that anyday
that anyone of us uses
more than one point seven leaders of petroleum directly or indirectly
we're using more than our share
now what's the average consumption in the united states in the answer is up
it's up around eight
leaders
a person
a day
so think about the inequity that's represented there
now there's something even more important in this graph
that peak in the nineteen seventies i think that historians in the future
we'll look back at this p
and say that was a major turning point
in all of human history
that's the point
per-capita consumption of
petroleum
reached its peak
before it started it's inevitable decline
there isn't anyway i concede that we can reverse that
trend that downward trend
given the world population growth and given the fact that we're right close to
the peak
world production
well doctor herbert addressed a committee of the congress he told them
that the exponential phase of the industrial growth
which is dominated human activities during the last couple of centuries is
now drawing to a close
yet during the last two centuries of unbroken industrial growth we have above
what amounts to an exponential growth culture
i would say it's more than a culture it's our national religion
because we
worship
pick up any newspaper you see headlines such as this state forecast robust
growth
have you ever heard of a physician diagnosing a cancer in the patient
and telling the patient you have a robust cancer
we had americans being killed in the gulf war
what's this person worried about
he doesn't care about people
he doesn't care about people being killed
always worried about it
of the gulf situation may hurt colorado's growth
now this incredible addiction is not limited to the united states
the wall street journal tells us of the japanese this or custom the growth
that economists in tokyo usually speak of a recession this anytime
the growth rate
bolo
percent
per year
so what do we do
in the words of winston churchill sometimes we have to do what is required
we must educate all of our people
to an understanding of the arithmetic and the consequences of growth
especially in terms of populations and in terms of the years finite resources
we must educate people to recognize the fact
their growth the populations and growth the rates the consumption of resources
cannot be sustained
now the world is full of people who are yakking about sustainability
some of them are doing serious good things like trying to reduce energy
consumption and things like this
some of them are just trying to attack the word
tack toward sustainability on the whatever they're doing whether it's
sustainable or not
we've got to understand the first law of sustainability in an follows directly
from what i've just been talking about
the first loss sustainability is this population growth
and or growth in the rates a consumption the resources cannot be sustained
now this follows from the arithmetic of steady growth that we spend time
developing
so this isn't an opinion opinions are debatable is the fact
there's not nothing here to debate you cannot sustain population growth
you cannot sustain growth in the rates for consumption of resources
and so it's intellectually dishonest to talk about sustainability
without stressing the obvious fact
the stopping population growth is unnecessary
condition for sustainability
now it's not sufficient stopping population growth
in itself
is not sufficient but there's no way you can have sustainability if you don't
stop population growth
we need to educate people to see a need to examine carefully the allegations of
the technological optimists who assured us
that science and technology will always be able to solve all of our problems
of population growth food energy and resources
now chief among these optimus
was the late doctor julian simon
formal a professor of economics and business administration at the
university of illinois
and later at the university of maryland
with regard to copper simon has written that we will never run out of copper
because copper can be made from other battles
well the letters to the editor john paul overdraw limo bach chemistry
he just brushed it off his adult worry
if it ever important
we'll figure out
how to make up a lot of other metals
simon had a book that was published by the princeton university press
and in that book is writing about oil from many sources including biomass
nasa's clearly there's no meaningful limit to the stars except for the sun's
energy
he goes on but nobody even if our son or not so fast as it is
there may well be other sons elsewhere
simon's right
there are other sons elsewhere
but now the question is
would you based public policy
on the bully
that if we ever need another son will figure out how to go get a call it back
into the solar system
now don't laugh
for decades before his death this man
was a trusted
policy advisor at the very highest levels
in washington d_c_
here's our quotation from one of the strong supporters
there was a u_n_ report that talked about the possibility of resource
collapse because of population growth
someone ask about the report hud secretary jack kemp said nonsense
people are not a drain on the resources of the planet
malcolm forbes junior editor in chief of forbes magazine
tell us in an editorial that c_n_n_ recently ran a silly series purporting
to show that the world's in mortal danger because they're too many of us
in the report countries the many miles mean poverty and richer countries a
wrecking the earth's atmosphere with pollution
all nonsense
bill moyers
interviewed isaac asimov
yes decimal what happens to the idea of the dignity of the human species is this
population growth continues
now the mall says it'll be completely destroyed
i'd like to use what i call my bathroom metaphor
if two people live in an apartment in the two bathrooms and both have freedom
of the bathroom
you go to the bathroom anytime you want stay as long as you want for whatever
you need
and everyone believes in freedom of the bathroom it should be writes their in
the constitution
but if you have twenty people in the apartment and two bathrooms and no
matter how much every person believes in freedom of the bathroom there's no such
thing
you have to set up times for each person at the *** on the door aren't you
through yet and so on
and asimov concluded with what i think's one of the most profound observations
i've seen in years
asimov says in the same way democracy
cannot survive overpopulation
human dignity cannot survive overpopulation
convenience indecency cannot survive overpopulation and you put more and more
people into the world the value of life not only declines it disappears and as a
matter of someone dies the more people there are
the last one individual matters
now let me give you two examples of this destruction of democracy by population
growth
are joined the faculty here in nineteen fifty at that time the population of
boulder was about twenty thousand
there were nine members of the city council
today it's approaching a hundred thousand there are nine members of the
city council so i'm a little over fifty years
the number of people per member of the city council has increased by a factor
of five democracy in boulder has declined a twenty percent of what it was
fifty years ago
mistaken example has to do with the year two thousand national census
this show that in the decade of the nineties the u_s_ population increased
by about thirteen percent
now this means every house seat in the house of representatives
now has thirteen percent more constituents on the average
than they did ten years ago
and in the last one hour of the world population has increased by about ten
thousand people
and the population of the united states and this one hour
has increased by about two hundred and an eighty
and we have to ask
why don't more u_s_ environmentalist an environmental organization speak out
about the problem of population growth
here in the united states
the simple arithmetic makes it excellently clear
that long-term preservation of the environment
in the u_s_
is impossible in the face of continued u_s_ population growth
but you hear all sorts of political leaders are what we can have our growth
will cost for growth
and smart growth will save the environment where we need to know about
smart growth
smart growth destroys the environment
dumb girls destroys the environment
now smart growth just destroys the environment with good taste
so it's a little like buying a ticket on the titanic if you're smart you go first
class
if you don't you go spirits but the results the same
so central to the things that we must do is to recognize the population growth
is the immediate cause of all of our resource and environmental crises
and of all the crises
i think this one global warming looms larger and more threatening
than anything
in all of human history
now because of our enormous per-capita consumption of resources
we can say with confidence
the world's worst population growth problems right here in the united states
the jury hear all sorts of well-meaning people
pointing to distant underdeveloped nations and saying there's a problem
with overpopulation
a have a rich person in the united states in a lifetime will consume
something like maybe thirty times are not a resources that'll be consumed by a
person in a lifetime in an underdeveloped nations
we are the problem
we have the responsibility and we have the authority
to deal with the problem
here as a domestic problem in the united states
and some years ago speaking here on the campus of the university of colorado
our united states senator tim wirth said that the best thing we can do to help
other countries stop their population growth
is for us to set an example
and stop our own population growth here in the u_s_
we have sent representatives to international conferences to tell the
underdeveloped nations you're the problem you've gotta stop your
population growth and they just laugh and say look here the problem with all
of your high per-capita consumption
now except for the petroleum graphs of things i tell you are not predictions of
the future
i'm only reporting fax in the results of some very simple arithmetic but i do
this with confidence that these facts
this arithmetic and more important
our level of understanding of them
will play a major role in shaping our future
now don't take what i said blindly ron critically because of the rhetoric for
for any other reason
please you check the facts
please check my arithmetic
if you find errors please let me know
but if you don't find errors
then i hope you'll take this very very seriously
you are important people
you can think
and if there was ever time on the human race needs people who will think
is right now
it's our responsibility as citizens in a democracy
two things
and so to be successful
with this experiment of human life on earth
we have to understand the laws of nature
as we encounter them in the study of science and mathematics
we have to remember the message of this cartoon
thinking is very upset
it tells us things we'd rather not know
we should remember the words of galloway oh he said i def do not feel obliged to
believe
that the same god who has endowed us with sense reason an intellect
has intended us to forgo their use
we should remember the words of aldous huxley he observed that facts do not
cease to exist because they're ignored
and we should remember
h_l_ mencken social philosophy he believed that it was that the nature of
the human species to reject what is true but on pleasant
and to embrace what is obviously falls
but comforting
and we should remember eric separates law
he was a newscaster who made the transition from radio to television back
in the nineteen fifties
he observed that the chief source of problems is solutions
now let's just
look at an example
the nile river for thousands of years would flood in the spring and the cells
that was carried down by the river would be deposited on agricultural lands on
the two sides of the river
and this renewed the fertility of the land they have a sustainable agriculture
for thousands of years
but now the flood was sort of a nuisance as you have cities develop along there
and the city people didn't like the floods and then this
uh... city people needed electricity so that was a problem
what was the solution
the high dam anasquan
so now let's look at the problems caused by the solution
first of all
although still
is carried out by the river is deposited in the reservoir behind the damp
so this means of them has a life time maybe a hundred two young two hundred
years it certainly is not very long
so it'll be filled and then there won't be the storage capacity that it was
designed to have
the water that's left out from the damn today is very clear water so this means
all of the erosion patterns downstream is change the used to be deposited here
pick up there and so on
now it's pretty much just picking up because it starts out from the damas
clearwater
down at the delta in alexandria where the nile enters the
mediterranean sea
washing away
agricultural land because it's no longer being deposited in the river just
washing it out into the mediterranean
and he used to be the load of biological nutrients that were brought down in this
river all the time supported a major fishery in the eastern mediterranean
that fisheries and serious decline because the nutrients no longer reach
there
and now in order to have their agriculture they're gotta do irrigation
you've gotta buy fertilizer it takes energy to make the fertilizer nor could
easily be that some of the energy to make the fertilizer comes from the dam
and now there lots of more agricultural workers waiting barefoot in the air
gation ***
and they're subject to a system i have some switches of
some kind of a parasite that carried by things in the water they can get through
this again and if you're barefoot in the
in the water why you can get this everything went bad because of the
solution to the problem nobody looked at what the
problems would be called by the solution this as one of the most important things
that we need to remember
now here's a challenge
do you think of any problem
on any scale
from microscopic can blow ble
whose long-term solution
isn't any demonstrable way hated assisted her advanced
by having larger populations
at the local level
at the state level
the national level are globally can you think of anything that will get better
if we crowd more people
into our communities into our state into our nation
or on this for think about it
will anything get better
with increased population
and i'd like to words of the late reverend martin luther king junior
he said a unlike the plagues of the dark ages or contemporary diseases which we
do not yet understand
the modern plague of overpopulation is soluble
by means we have discovered
and with resources we possess
what is lacking is not sufficient knowledge of the solution
but universal consciousness of the gravity of the problem
and the education of the billions
who are its victims
and so i hope i've made a reasonable case for my opening statement
that i believe their greatest shortcoming of the human race is our
inability
to understand this very simple
arithmetic
i thank you very very much
i'd be happy to entrust
fact