Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
Hello everyone this is Joe at the National Weather Service in Billings. Let's take a
quick look at the outlook for the 2013-2014 winter season.
Recently, the Climate Prediction Center released its official outlook for the 2013-2014 winter.
For the mid winter months, December through February, the outlook calls for slightly increased
chances of wetter and cooler conditions for our region. Outside of the blue highlighted
areas, the term "equal chances" is used, which is to say that above, below and near normal
temperatures and precipitation are equally likely. Notice that although our region is
highlighted, the probabilities for wetter and cooler than normal conditions are increased
only slightly, and this is due to the fact that the overall climate signal for this winter
is weak. The El Nino Southern Oscillation, a condition in the tropical Pacific Ocean,
is expected to remain neutral this year and will not be a big player. Seasonal climate
predictions are difficult to make. It's kind of like rolling a pair of dice. Although 7
is the most common number (and thus the best "prediction"), there is still only a 1 in
6 chance it will come up, and sometimes you roll snake eyes!
So let's take a quick look at our winter climatology and why we see what we see. Our location along
the east slopes of the northern Rocky Mountains plays a very large role in determining our
winter weather. Because of the mountains, we are prone to dramatic warm ups in the middle
of winter, as winds blowing down the eastern slopes are warm and dry, and often quite strong.
Also because of this, we do not see snow cover last for long periods of time. These strong
downslope winds are called "Chinook" winds in our region, sometimes referred to as "snow
eaters." Also, notice that there are no mountain ranges to our north, meaning there are no
obstructions between the Canadian arctic and us. Thus we are also prone to periodic surges
of very cold Canadian air. The combination of being in the northern plains and on the
eastern slopes of the Rockies gives us wildly variable weather during the course of a typical
winter. Just pay attention to the wind direction: southwest or west winds usually mean it will
be dry and warmer, and a north or east wind can signal snowy and colder weather.
So what should you do this winter? The same as every winter...be prepared! Remember that
alternating periods of cold/snowy and warm/dry/windy weather are NORMAL during the course of a
winter. Keep yourself, your home and vehicles ready for winter weather. We will keep you
posted of pattern changes and weather which will impact the region, as best we can. And
as always, monitor the forecast for your specific location. Thanks, and have a good day.