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[All rights to this video belong to Radio Svaboda]
Welcome to Freedom Zone [Zona Svabody]
A war is going on in Belarus' neighbor, Ukraine.
Russia did not declare war but the Ukrainian territory was seized by troops which invaded that country.
[PRESENTER: ALEXANDER LUKASHUK]
This is the worst conflict since the Cold War.
This is the opinion of the West.
The Kremlin, however, says that Russia is regaining the power and influence it lost.
What does it mean for Belarus today and tomorrow?
For Belarusian economy and independence, for democracy and national culture...
This is the topic of today's program Freedom Zone. I am Alexander Lukashuk.
With me today my colleagues, Yury Drakokhrust, Sergei Naumchik
and from Minsk Andrei Dynko, editor in chief of the Nasha Niva newspaper
Colleagues, there are no territorial disputes between Belarus and Russia
There is no border between them either
No Russian diaspora and no difficulties for Russian-speaking population
Can Belarus find itself in the same situation as Ukraine?
Can Belarus find itself in the same situation as Ukraine?
This is the question which is interesting for many people in Belarus, so let us try to answer it.
Yuri, let's begin with you
Yuri Drakokhrust: I would say not now but I do not rule it out in the future. It all depends on Russia's behavior.
Sergei, what do you think?
Sergei Naumchik: I think Belarus has been in this situation since 1994
because army in Belarus is in fact not Belarusian
It receives orders from Moscow, from the Moscow headquarters
Lukashenko is pursuing the policy of internal occupation
You, Alexander said that we don't have a Russian diaspora but we do not have Belarusian-language schools
so that children could receive education in Belarusian, there are almost no such schools
that is why the situation is much worse than what we can see in Ukraine
The only difference is that there are no tanks
Andrei, what is your opinion? One of my colleagues says
that such a situation is possible, while the other says that it has already happened.
So how would you comment on this?
Andrei Dynko: If we take a formal pretext, i.e. the capture of Belarusian airports
special forces and tanks along BelTransGaz
then I would say yes, it may happen, and this is a great danger for the country's future.
Just one remark, please. Andrei talks about tanks along BelTransGaz
Those groups... I would like to remind you that Belarus is a member of the Collective Security Treaty system
And this system is controlled totally by Moscow and its military command.
There is no need to introduce any forces here. The highest-ranked generals of Belaurs studied in Russian military academies.
Read the military newspaper Vo Slavu Rodiny [To The Glory of the Motherland]: they wish the Soviet Union were re-created.
They are totally under Russia.
But Sergei, Andrei said 'formally'. Formally means precisely when you call a cat a cat.
I would add to Andrei's words. It is not only formally but in fact.
We should not use metaphors here.
Until 21 August 1968 Czechoslovakia was a Soviet satellite.
Czechoslovakian officers studied in Soviet universities
Everything was Soviet there but after 21 August
they understood the difference between being a vassal and being an occupied country.
So please do not mix up these things.
And, Sergei, believe me that you will not mix up a military occupation with anything else.
And this is why when the Warsaw Pact troops (from Hungary, GDR and Poland) entered Czechoslovakia
Czechoslovakian troops did not shoot at all
because generals who graduated from Moscow academies gave soldiers orders to sit in the barracks.
The situation before and after August 21 were totally different. This is my point.
I would like you to speak not about how to explain what is happening
but I would like to ask you a question which is quite obvious: did Belarus return to 2008
because of what had happened in Ukraine. Andrei, I mean
the situation in which society was in 2008 after Russia's occupation of part of Georgia
when Belarusian authorities did not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia or when the question arose
whether to recognize or not. And then the thaw began with the West.
And this liberalization lasted for quite a long time, until 20.00 December 20, 2010.
Do you think that something similar is going to happen now?
There are prerequisites for it
Silence from Alexander Lukashenko and Nursultan Nazarbayev during the entire week
after the Russian troops were deployed in Ukraine
It proves that the Belarusian and Kazakh leaders take very seriously the events in Ukraine.
Note that Putin thought these autocrats would definitely give him 100% support
The person who wanted to become a Ukrainian dictator was unsat.
It would be understandable that autocrats from other Eurasian countries would feel sympathy for him
By protecting Yanukovych Putin also protects them.
But in this case national interests appeared to be stronger for Lukashenko and Nazarbayev than their personal interest as leaders.
That is worth a lot.
Sergei, do you think Belarus has a good chance now to come closer to Europe?
For Belarus or for Lukashenko?
Unfortunately, Belarusian authorities think that these two notions are the same
Of course, after the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko ceased to be dictator No.1 for the West
Pariah No.1 or dictator No.1 is now Putin, not Lukashenko.
But I don't agree with Andrei Dynko who said that national interests appeared to be more important for Lukashenko than his own power.
Do you mean only for Lukashenko or for both him and Nazarbayev?
I think Nazarbayev is more oriented towards the nation
He is a statesman to a greater extent than Lukashenko, who is totally a pro-Russian politician.
if not a marionette
and yes, there are some new prospects for him but he will not use them in the interest of the nation, of Belarus
but he will use them in order to consolidate his own power
or his authoritarian power over this people.
So this will not bring anything positive for the nation
Is such independence worse than the loss of this independence?
There will always be a possibility of Belarus losing its independence during Lukashenko's rule.
He will give away this independence in two seconds if he is offered guarantees and a place in the Kremlin.
Well, but during 20 years of his rule this has not happened.
This means that he did not receive any good offers.
Or your approach is inappropriate
Yuri, when he is offered a place in the Kremlin in exchange for uniting Belarus and Russia into one state he will agree in 2 seconds.
How do we prove this theory if this did not happen in the last 20 years?
Yuri Drakokhrust: You simply believe in your theory! Alexander Lukashuk: Many things did not happed in the last 20 years
but people were afraid that something would happen.
What is your attitude to the Russian-Ukrainian confluct?
This is the question we asked passers-by in Minsk
Is there any conflict between Russia and Ukraine. I don't see one.
For now it's calm. I don't know what will happen in the future.
Russian troops have always been in the Crimea region, this is not the invasion.
My nephews live in Ukraine. You know, they really feel some oppression there.
And want Russia to help them.
You know, they are treated badly there.
They are said that they will be evicted from their homes and that their apartments would be taken away.
Ukrainians say there is no place for Muscovites there. However, my nephews are Belarusians.
Our attitude is negative. Because according to social networks
I like this citation very much. It reads "Hitler would turn over in his grave if he found out that Russia attacks Ukraine while Germany tries to defend Ukraine.
Russia's version of events differs much from the situation on the ground.
I think both sides have worked themselves up.
I think both sides have worked themselves up.
They could do it in a legal way, for example through impeachment
It was clear that Yanukovych could not lay claims for power.
But to bring the country to a civil war is not a good choice for either side.
Of course it's bad. Vita always watches news reports and worries about what is happening there.
We are for peace and only for peace.
We worry more about Ukrainians, not for Putin of course.
I welcome the Maidan and wish them success.
Because such is our country. I have children and grandchildren.
These were opinions of people in Minsk streets, of course this is not a poll and we cannot draw any conclusions from it.
But Sergei, what have you noticed?
The older generation believes Putin's propaganda
The younger generation understands the situation in a proper way
but one thing: there was a woman, third as far as I remember, who said that her nephews are treated badly. What does it mean?
They are going to be evicted from their apartments
But you understand that this is a sheer absurdity. No one was going to evict them.
It is impossible to imagine this.
Even if they lived somewhere not in Kiev or Donetsk but in Lviv
I cannot imagine this
Sergei, it is her understanding of the world.
But she didn't provide any arguments. This is what the propaganda is about: they say 'Russians are oppressed there
But she didn't provide any arguments. This is what the propaganda is about: they say 'Russians are oppressed there
and the Russians are suffering there' but they cannot prove this with facts.
- Is it important to you that propaganda produces such an effect
- Of course... - ...that this influences both political and economic behavior and has a strong effect in general? - Of course...
Andrei, you've heard this, too, and you can now elaborate on what you said. I suppose you hear these voices every day
I would like to tell Mr. Naumchik that it is not correctly to say that someone's perception of events is right and someone's not.
You can have different views on the situation.
There can be no right or wrong points of view
It is a pity that people who were asked know nothing about the situation in Ukraine.
At least the majority of them. And you are right, Mr. Naumchik, when you say that sometimes what they say is a sheer absurdity.
It is the same as to come to North Korea and ask their opinion about Russia's behavior
The effect is very similar here. Why does it happen?
Because there is very little information about the situation in Ukraine in Belarusian media.
No information. And what is the most important in this conflict
is that Russia's decision to deploy forces in Ukraine violates the entire system of international agreements.
We see the same thing which happened in the late 1930s when Hitler was doing the same
and said Germany had the right to seize territories where Germans lived. Isn't Putin doing the same now?
He is doing the same thing. But all those people did not say this because they cannot find this out from Belarusian media.
He is doing the same thing. But all those people did not say this because they cannot find this out from Belarusian media.
Meanwhile, what is happening is a real threat to the entire world.
If the system of international treaties breaks apart
If the Budapest memorandum means nothing (this memorandum gave Ukraine and Belarus security guarantees
in exchange for nuclear disarmament)
this means that the world is going to plunge into World War III.
No one will win in this war. Only dead bodies everywhere.
Andrei points out to the peculiarity of this interview, i.e. lack of information.
This may not only be attributed to lack of information in mass media
Maybe people do not want to search for information. Why is it so?
Because this information will not influence their lives. Information has a high value only in a democratic society.
When you can choose between candidates' programs, decisions, biographies, behavior and then compare them
If there is no such a system in place so why should people read unnecessary things?
Yuri, tell me please... No, I will ask you this question a bit later...
Was the age division important for you in these answers?
There were three points of view. Some are against Ukraine, some are against Russia and the third way was to try to solve the problem in a peaceful way.
I noticed that the predominant Belarusian position is to choose the third way
And it is voiced by both the younger and the older generation.
I would not agree with Andrei who compared us with North Korea
Comrade Kim-Chen-Yn would not be criticized in North Korea.
Here people say 'Yes, I'm against Putin, I'm for the Maidan'
Lukashenko said a couple of days ago that no Maidan will ever happen in Belarus
and after that a woman says 'Yes, I'm for the Maidan'
So let's not mention North Korea here
But I think that anti-war sentiment is predominant in our society
In this case we hear the Belarusians projecting their sentiment onto Ukraine. 'Just don't start war!' they say.
Today's stance of the Belarusian authorities is in keeping with the public sentiment.
This is Freedom Zone. We continue the program.
Several days ago your newspaper, Andrei, published an article
an editorial which reads (I will remind our viewers)
Quote: "In the case of escalation in Ukraine Belarus will need a national unity and restraint.
All disagreements between the authorities and the opposition should be put aside.
And the conflict between Belarus and the West should also be stopped.
The release of all political prisoners and the further consolidatoin of national consciousness would be a prerequisite for this.
These words are a general description. But tell us before we start discussing it:
did you change your mind in these several days of conflict?
No, this is a fundamental approach.
If something extraordinary happens in the world, and we have felt the breath of war,
a possibility of this war turning into World War III has emerged
In moments like this such small nations as Belarus should be united
and should be able to reach consensus
which would let Belarusians remain uninvolved in the conflict.
The experience of the 20th century when the entire territory of Belarus was ruined twice
as a result of two world wars teaches us not to be involved in these wars once again.
This was the idea behind our commentary.
Another thing is the reaction of Belarusian politicians. I would like to remind you
that Alexander Lukashenko had said that the main thing for Ukraine is to maintain its territorial integrity
long before information appeared about the deployment of Russian special forces at the Crimean airport
He said this on the same day when it became known about Victor Yanukovych's escape.
And a month ago when shooting begain in Kiev and it became clear that this is an escalation
in which third parties will take part, he said that what was happening in Kiev is a nightmare and a catastrophy
This was called a nightmare because in fact it meant a threat of the country's breakup.
This is why we published this editorial, at the same day when it became clear that
that the parliament and the airport was seized.
Andrei, I will now ask your colleagues to express their opinions but tell me please
What comments did you get from your readers? How would you divide them?
How many for and how many against, in percent.
It is clear that points of view are different on such a difficult problem
But it was interesting for me to note that those readers
who support Lukashenko praised this editorial
It was also supported by.. centrists, I would put it in this way.
And also national democrats.
But we got a negative response from those who, as Mr Naumchik, totally disbelieve Alexander Lukashenko.
They think Alexander Lukashenko is a person with whom no negotiations can be held and no business conducted.
So they criticized that editorial. But it is interesting
that some of them returned to this editorial later after some days
when they saw the developments in Ukraine and said maybe the idea of the article had been reasonable.
Thank you, thank you Andrei, it will be interesting to watch
how points of view of the active part of society will be developing
But let's get back to the first editorial
Sergei, what do you agree with and what would you contest?
Sergei Naumchik: Of course I agree that it is necessary that political prisoners be freed.
This is obvious. It is clear that national unity is required.
But this national unity cannot be reality given the authorities that rules Belarus.
And which Alexander Lukashenko personifies.
About what national unity can Andrei Dynko speak
with regard to Alexander Lukashenko who has been destroying this unity for 20 years?
He has prevented the Belarusian language from developing and distroyed Belarusian identity.
So you say that Lukashenko cannot change
There is no way this happens.
He will never change. His mentality is pro-Russian
But the most important is that he is a pro-imperialist person
It this respect no compromise may be reached with him.
He has always been the biggest danger for Belarusian independence.
Yuri, Sergei expresses a popular opinion.
Popular among the most active Internet users, as far as I can see.
An 'anything-but-not-war' stance does not seem to gain ground in Belarus
Arguments do not work in this case.
What are the strengths and weaknesses of Nasha Niva's declaration in that editorial?
Well, concerning the national idea I would like to ask a historical question:
which national identity could there be between then-lieutenant Vasil Bykov [famous Belarusian writer] and Iosif Stalin?
But there was some identity. Vasil Bykov served in the army and fought
As far as the newspaper's stance is concerned
I... well.. I agree with it that when there is an external threat
then maybe you should put internal quarrels aside.
I mean fundamental quarrels. But I think that
one of the sides here is too strong, I mean the authorities.
And in this case it is probably not reasonable for the opposition to swear allegiance to authorities.
I think that in the case of external conflict these quarrels will wane away automatically, it is natural.
The authorities, being a more powerful force, should make some steps towards the other side.
But if no steps follow, then there will be "unity by default", so to say
I would like to remind our viewers that
the prerequisite is one of the most important parts of this declaration, to my mind.
A prerequisite for it would be created by the release of political prisoners and further consolidation of Belarusians' national consciousness.
This is a kind of stupulation but a very important one, I think.
And now you will see another public opinion poll, this time in Bobruisk.
Did your attitude to Russia change after it occupied the Crimea?
[woman]: What's happened in the Crimea? [man]: The consequences can be serious. I did military service in a hot spot, in Baku, I know what the war is.
[woman]: What's happened in the Crimea? [man]: The consequences can be serious. I did military service in a hot spot, in Baku.
It is really terrifying. But nothing like this has happened in Ukraine.
To be hotest, I'm not interested in politics.
Ask the youth, they want to go and fight there..
They don't know what war is but they think it's cool and want to go and fight there.
No, thanks, we would not like to give comments...
I have always respected Russia even despite what is happening now.
I think it's all wrong and it should be stopped immediately.
Do not let the war happen!
I am Ukrainian myself
Yanukovych symbolizes corruption.
The other people assumed power but nothing's changed.
Whose who came are reactionarists who forbid people to speak their native Russian language
and impose their own order
I think Russia really wants to support Ukraine now
support the rights of the Ukrainian people
I think in this case it is very positive
And I can only welcome it because I took part in the war, too.
Of course my attitude to Russia changed
When such a situation happens in peaceful time it is always worrisome.
My attidute to them doesn't change.
My attitude to Ukraine is changing
Because of what is happening there.. and we have to watch that..
I don't understant why they fight for power there.
The fact that Russia's troops are there is right to some extent.
As far as I know they asked for help.
Forces are there to guarantee the rights of Russian-speaking people, not to impose their own order
Why should we criticize Russia? It protects its own citizens.
Even if Russians come, so what? We are the same Russian people as they are.
I don't see anything strange about that.
Such aggressive methods do not correspond to present-day politics.
As far as I understand, this conflict spoiled Russia's relations with other countries
They are sawing off the branch they're sitting on
I am not interested in politics
I don't know exactly. But I think Russia is more humane than other countries, because the latter don't care about Ukraine at all.
Ukraine, Russia.. I am not especially interested in these things..
I know that everything will be normal there.
Colleagues, will you also comment on this? Sergei.
Let's begin with you. This was in Bobruisk. Do you see any difference with Minsk residents?
The impression is dreadful
Poor people who were brainwashed.. Except for one girl..
Andrei, a poll in Bobruisk and in Minsk. Do you see any difference in the answers?
In Minsk more people have access to news on the Internet
People in Bobruisk watch the standard package of channels.
They read the newspapers they have access to. What was in the Sovetskaya Belorussiya newspaper, which can be found everywhere?
What did they read about Ukraine there? Nonsense from those chauvinist political analysts?
I do not even want to retell what they wrote there...
People always read what is available. Take an average Pole. He or she reads Gazeta Wyborcza where tens of articles on Ukraine were published.
American, Lithuanian newspapers also wrote everything. And here... People severely lack information.
So we can see a truimph of propaganda in the century when information is available to anyone.
We can summarize your, Andrei, and your, Sergei points of view.
From the beginning of the program you said that one thing unites the people and the authorities - neither of them want war.
There is a phrase that not everything bad was connected with Adolf Hitler
And people say that not everything bad is connected with Vladimir Putin.
Can this describe Belarus' attitude to Russia?
First of all, I would like to diagree with my colleagues.
Of course propaganda has its influence, information influences people's minds...
But first of all let's not overstate it.
A man said there in the video: "I am from Donetsk and I know"
So he did not only watch TV
The same was with the woman in the first video. She said "My nephews live there and I know how they live. They are mistreated there!"
So this is now right to blame it all on propaganda.
In Bobruisk, it's evident that Russia is supported by young people
who may use the Internet and read Nasha Niva, New York Times or Gazeta Wyborcza.
If they want, of course.
But what impressed me is what we did not hear in Minsk.
We did not hear that Russia does the right thing, Russia's actions are reasonable.
There were many more points of view in favor of Russia in Bobruisk.
And thus we should bear in mind that this is the public context in which both the opposition and the authorities have to act.
Ukraine is in trouble and the trouble came from the East. But today we discussed Belarus.
In 2008, Belarus' refusal to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia became the first signal of the official Minsk to the West
meaning that Belarus is ready for rapproachment.
But the real approachment began only after the last political prisoner was freed.
Still in jail are Igor Olinevich, Nikolai Avtukhovich, Ales Belyatsky, Evgeny Vaskovich, Nikolai Dedok
Eduard Lobov, Vasily Parfenkov, Artyom Prokopenko, Nikolai Statkevich and Vladimir Yaromenok [freed on March 11 - note by Belarus Times]
All together they spend 28 years 6 months and 6 days behind bars.
Their names and their destinies worry us. That is why we think, analyze, argue and search for answers together.