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Gapcast #3 deals with aging Europe, that is the proportion of people about 65 years in
Europe. On this axis here, we show whether it’s 2%, something 10 years or up to 18%
of the population are about 65 years of age. And here we show the family size, whether
it is 1to 2 children per woman or whether it up to 7,8 children per woman. Every bubble
is the country, the size is the population, and the colour shows the continent. The Brown
over here are the European countries, this is North America, and that is Japan and you
can see that the industrialised countries in 1961, they had 2 to 3 children per woman,
and they had about 4,5 up to 10% of the population about 65 years of age. And the developing
countries were ?ALL?? down here, with 5 to 8 children per women and very low percentage
of people about 65. Now, let’s see what has happened, I run now the world, from 1961
and you can see how our Europe start to age immediately, higher and higher proportion
here of the population is about 65 years, and China get a small, this is China, China
get a small family size, but remains with a low proportion of old people; India, is
the big new bubble, moves with there and in 2004 you really see that what we used to
call developing countries all have very few old people in the population, but many of
them, the middle income countries now have small families. Up here are Europe, and let
me show you rich these countries are. In the top here, it’s Japan, and about that it’s
Italy. Italy has about 20% of the population about 65 years of age, and 18% in Germany,
and we can make a blow up of the European region, and I start from down here, and we
take this part of the chart and we enlarge it, and then we can see that down here we
have Turkey, Turkey with only five per cent about 65 years; a giant population in Turkey,
still a family size of 2 and half child per woman. So they will remain with a very young
composition of the population for a long time, you know. Then this is a little difference,
there’s one group of countries there, who are they? The promenant one is France , here,
which have a relatively high fertility rate. But United Kingdom , and then you find Sweden
and Belgium, and the other northern countries, they have a little more children per woman
and relatively high old people: that means that they will balance the population more
then those who are on this side here, with very few children born, and there you find
Spain , and you find Ukraine, you find Bulgaria, and you find Germany up here. But of course,
most prominent is Italy in the top. And it’s interesting to see that, down together with
Turkey here, you find countries like Mexico, like Vietnam, and of course, this is China,
which will have a much more favourable, economically favourable population composition than Europe
for a long time to come.