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Klaus Schwab: Good afternoon.
It's a pleasure and a privilege to introduce to you again
Dr. Mahmoud Jibril, the chairman of the Executive Committee of the National
Transition Council of Libya.
Dr. Jibril, we really recognize with great gratitude that you took the time to join
us here and to share with us your ideas, your thinking about the historical events
which happened in your country, and as I mentioned yesterday in my opening speech,
we all should celebrate the rebirth of Libya.
Now, you have explained in the plenary session and in some other locations during
the meeting already some of your thoughts about the future of Libya.
I would like to have here maybe a more fundamental analysis, and my question,
my first question to you, Dr. Jibril, would be when you look at what's happened in
Libya, is it an isolated case or how do you see the intellectual, if I may say so,
background? It's a historical event, as I've just said, but is it a historical event
focusing on Libya or is it a historical event for the world?
Mahmoud Jibril: Thank you very much. First of all, I am glad to be here
and thank you for the invitation.
I think what took place in Libya cannot be isolated from what came to be known as
the Arab Spring. It's a new wave and my belief is that this
is part of a new paradigm taking place because of the globalized trends which
came into action in the late '80s.
Now, we are starting to see some results in the financial realm as well as the
physical and financial crisis, 2008. Now, at the cultural and social thing,
new values have started to develop, you know. I always tell me colleagues that if you
take a sample of 5,000-10,000 young people, 15 until 30 years old,
for instance, you will be surprised that they listen to the same music, they get dressed
the same way, and they support the same soccer players, and they listen -- this
is a new globalized age, whether they are coming from Africa or from Asia or from
North America, from Europe, wherever. It doesn't matter.
So there is a new value system because those young kids were exposed to
a different socialization process from the one we got exposed to.
Therefore, their dreams, their values, their behavior is completely different
from ours.
This is very important because if you want to address the concerns and the
dreams and the values of those young kids, we should take this into consideration.
Our old thinking is not suitable at all to address their concerns.
As long as we ignore this fact, I expect that instability is going to continue.
Turmoil is going to continue and those young kids will keep coming to the streets.
We, our mission, I believe, to be mentors to those kids.
We sit back. We help them develop their own programs,
translate their own values, their own dreams into concrete programs.
We help them to produce their own leadership and take things in their hand.
As a matter of fact, I invited some of the Egyptian young people.
I talked to Mr. Essam Sharaf, the prime minister.
I talked to the prime minister of Tunisia with the same effect.
And we are trying now to gather and convene the three young, three states,
the young kids from three states in one conference trying to develop a common
language between them.
Klaus Schwab: This means in the old times, let's say, there was a two-class
society and it was very much based on an ideological struggle.
But today, you have a conflict, if I may say so, between those post-Facebook
and before Facebook.
Now, you say those people are very impatient.
How, in a country like Libya, which has, if I'm not mistaken, about 70% of the
population below the age of 30, how can you manage?
I mean what do you have to do in order to get those people on your side and to
construct together your future?
Mahmoud Jibril: Well, I think the first step is involvement.
We have to involve those people.
We don't act on their behalf.
We don't perceive ourselves as we have a mandate over those people, that we know
more than them. As a matter of fact, you will be
surprised that in some cases and most cases, they know much more than we do
because they are exposed day and night to the Internet.
They are exposed day and night to the satellite TV while we expose ourselves less.
If we take a sample of our age of 50's and 60's, you will discover that no more
than 60% of us use computers.
But when you come to those young kids, it's not unlikely at all that more than
90% use computers. You'll find a student knows more than his
teacher and this is empirically proved through different studies because they are
day and night chatting all over the world. What I am trying to say, that this is
a new political party.
It's convened over time, 24 hours per day, because the time difference between
the continents, they chat with the United States, with China, with Africa, all over
the place. It's not a party in the traditional sense
where they have address, they have a building. The police cannot quote it, by the way,
in those dictatorship.
So this is a new phenomena, and if we don't address it properly, I think
a missed opportunity will be in place in the Middle East.
Klaus Schwab: But when you look at those young people, do you feel that in essence,
they are -- I mean they are demanding but are they idealistic?
Do you see a positive spirit?
Mahmoud Jibril: Yes, I did. I had many opportunities to meet with
those young people.
Some of them are involved within some civil society organizations.
They are brilliant. I think I was surprised with the maturity
of their thought, their exposure to different ideas.
It's completely opposite to our old thinking that we believe that those kids
lack maturity, lack understanding. That's not true at all.
Klaus Schwab: So it's a complete paradigm shift and [cross-talking]
-- Mahmoud Jibril: That is a paradigm shift.
Klaus Schwab: And Libya was, in some way, let's say seismic point of such a paradigm shift?
Mahmoud Jibril: That's true. I think if we can manage to have
stability and order taken care of quickly in Libya, I think Libya has a chance to
produce a model of development unprecedented in the Middle East.
Klaus Schwab: But when you take this paradigm shift, so under your assumption
of the change which happened in Libya,
will practically spread around the world
even in countries which are not characterized by a terrible dictatorship
as your country was, but it will spread around and we will have the same situation
everywhere in the world.
Mahmoud Jibril: I think this trend is unstoppable I think either at the Middle
East or elsewhere.
Technology is advancing so fast and I think by 2020, I think the technology will
take care of itself, where genetic growth will start emerging at that point,
and this is a scary thing, you know. But the gap between the human intellect
and the technological advancing is widening badly and this keeps us frustrated.
The moment we get a new software, the moment, by the time we get trained, we get
surprised that a new generation of technology is coming.
So we don't have the ability to comprehend and connect things together.
And this is unprecedented in history and it's going to cause some problems in the future.
Klaus Schwab: Dr. Jibril, I argued in an editorial that the technological evolution
which is taking place is different from what we are used to because all technology
revolution changed the way how we did things.
But the new techno -- for example, steam engine -- but the new revolution
is changing our identity. And I say most people have not yet
recognized that we have now identity-changing technological revolution
in place and it's actually not only the Internet and digital interaction but we
will have to see a reinforcement of such a -- of this type of technological evolution
with gene technology, stem cell technology and so on, which will alter ourselves
and which will create a completely new dimension as well.
Do you agree?
Mahmoud Jibril: I agree with that. As a matter of fact, I remember that --
in too many press conferences warned the world and humanity that we are coming to
the convergence of technology by the year 2023 and that would be very scary where
the logic of technology will supersede the human logic, where technology will
dominate the brain of human beings, and that's a very scary thing.
The most devastating implication for those technological advances was the
results of those technological advances for those starving continents and countries.
My argument is that, Professor Schwab, is that always, we have this triangle between
population, wealth, and technology,
or know-how or knowledge.
The moment we have know-how and population, we can create wealth.
But the moment we have population and wealth only without knowledge, we're going
to waste wealth. The first model, we have Singapore,
we have Israel, we have Ireland. What matters is that if technology
is associated with the human beings for the sake of the human beings.
Now most of the world economies are shifting towards a service economy,
this virtual economy. Probably this was one of the grassroots
reasons for the financial crisis that took place. The speed is too fast.
Now we are coming to a paradigm where wealthy created wealth.
In the past, it was wealth creating production. Whether agricultural,
wherever industrial, we find jobs for people. Now with this virtual paradigm,
it's wealth creating wealth, whether it's in the stock market, and the time difference
is making it worse. For instance, Bill Gates in New York can
push a button of his laptop and taking an opportunity in some -- and taking use of
some opportunities in China, for instance. Because of the time difference, he can do
it again in a different continent without even interference from any bank.
The structure of our banks which resulted from the treaty of agreement of Bretton
Woods in 1947 are completely irrelevant to today's world.
So I think the question of speed is a problem but it gives a chance to a small
country to capitalize on that. Small is beautiful today.
They can capitalize on this.
Klaus Schwab: And young people can capitalize on it too.
We all have to move away from the traditional definition of employment to
self-employment, entrepreneurship and so can create hope even for a poor country
because it can leapfrog if it captures this entrepreneurial spirit.
Mahmoud Jibril: I think this is very important. I can expect in the future some
inter-countries projects where kids virtually can combine their efforts for
one project. Maybe the center is somewhere in Europe
but who took part in that project? It is spread all over the world.
The problem with what I am saying is that population growth is exponential.
If we have today the world population around 6,000,700,000, it's going to be by
2050 something like 9.5 billion. Africa in particular, which is I think
the fruit of the -- economy of the world would rest with Africa.
Africa today is 900,000,075.
By 2025, it's going to be 1,258,000,000. But by 2050, it's going to be approaching
two billion, while Europe is shrinking.
Europe, by 2050, is going to be less 72 million people.
Know-how is in Europe and poverty is spreading in Africa.
Africa by 2050 will have 359 young people in the age from 15 to 39 marching north.
So there is a problem. And here, where I see a real opportunity
for Libya to be a real help to transform the skills of those Africans and export
them to Europe where they can fit the needs of the European economy.
So I think Libya in the future is fitted to play a very cardinal, very pioneering
role to serve not the interest of Libya but the interest of the European economy
in particular.
Klaus Schwab: Dr. Jibril, I think it was very important to put the Libyan situation
into a general context. But coming back to Libya for a moment,
or to conclude this session, let me ask you what do you see as the most positive scenario?
I know you have been a professor for strategic planning as I have been, so we
like to speak in terms of scenari. What is your most, let's start with the
most pessimistic scenario and then let's end with the most optimistic scenario
and let's take a time horizon of three to five years. Mahmoud Jibril: Well, the most
pessimistic and the worst case scenario is that we fail as Libyans or as TNC or
Executive Office to collect arms from the streets, tribalism surfaced again and try
to play havoc in the social fabric of our countries, then those will be serious
and very grave impediments to those visionary statements I just made.
This the most -- and this might result in anything that you can expect the -- at
least those visionary developmental scenario will be postponed for a while.
And I don't think the Libyans, with their knowledge, with their awareness after
those 42 years of agony and suppression,
the moment they think of those 42 years, they will stop from anything that might
impede those developmental ambitions.
Klaus Schwab: And your most optimistic?
Mahmoud Jibril: My most optimistic is that we'll get to business immediately,
that stability and order will be done in record time.
There will be a national consensus about a national vision of development.
By the way, we had developed one in 2025 called Vision '25 for Libya which is mixed
modeling and scenario planning together. We came with three different scenarios.
I hope that this scenario prevails in the near future.
Klaus Schwab: My last question is you went through an extraordinary time.
I mean being at the head of the executive committee of the transition council,
the last weeks, I mean we can only imagine what pressures were on your shoulders.
And if you would share the experience you have taken out of those months, if you
would share your experience with the
audience, what did you learn out of this here in terms of leadership?
Mahmoud Jibril: Well, first of all, I would admit that those young Libyans kept
surprising me every time.
I remember a time when we were squeezed badly by the international community,
asking us for a middle way because there was a military stalemate in the ground
and everybody was pushing, trying to accept a middle way solution and some sort of
compromise with the regime.
It was for those young kids who proved that everybody was wrong.
They took things in their hand. I was trying to buy time.
At that time, Tripoli uprising was about two weeks away.
It was for those kids that they started rolling a new spirit and all of a sudden
came out and they started rolling back the military machine of Gaddafi.
And everybody was surprised, including we at the TNC or the Executive Office.
So I would really want to salute those young kids for the heroic and courageous
activities that took place in the ground that changed the whole picture.
The other thing, my own humble opinion, I was and still the head of what's called
the Executive Office, there were some people on the ground fighting and I was
giving or devoting most of my time to the political side, how to get recognition of
this TNC. And I was racing with time from country to country.
Sometimes the flights took me 22ֲ½ hours continuously, for instance, from Beijing
to Durban, South Africa.
My understanding was if I manage to get the legitimacy for the TNC even if the
battle on the ground is not over yet,
then the case is over. If we manage with my colleagues to sit
the TNC in the seat of Libya, the United Nations, then the case is over.
And this is what happened, by the way.
TNC was seated in the United Nations in September 16th, while the liberation of
Tripoli and the liberation of the total country just took place three days ago,
or four days ago. So it was not an easy task without money,
without arms, without -- but there was a real will, a strong will, and there is --
the real support was from those young people on the ground spilling their blood
for the sake of their own country. So I cannot resist but salute their
heroism and those who passed the way for the sake of their own country.
[Applause]
Klaus Schwab: Dr. Jibril, we should also pay tribute to you, to your leadership,
I would say collaborative leadership with the young people.
Mahmoud Jibril: Thank you.
Klaus Schwab: And we wish you personally and we wish the Libyan people all the best
and we hope that all their aspirations will be fulfilled in a not too far -- I
underline not too far -- future.
You can count certainly on the support of many here in the room and on the support
of the World Economic Forum. Mahmoud Jibril: Thank you very much.
Klaus Schwab: Thank you very much. Mahmoud Jibril: Thank you.
[Applause]