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We're gearing up for what looks to be a very busy three day period for severe weather across
Oklahoma and north Texas. Good morning from the National Weather Service Forecast Office
in Norman. I'm Rick Smith and this is a brief look at what we're expecting.
Tomorrow will be the first of three days in a row with the potential for severe thunderstorms
across our area. We're tracking a combination of weather ingredients that will come together
over the southern plains states beginning Saturday, and that combination gets more potent
Sunday and Monday, when we expect the most intense storms to happen. We're fairly confident
about the potential for significant severe storms, including tornadoes, over parts of
the area Sunday and Monday, but there is still uncertainty about exactly where the best chances
for tornadoes and more dangerous storms will line up this far in advance. We never want
to sound the alarm unless we really need to, but we think this is one of those situations
where you would be very wise to get ready for severe weather and make sure you have
a plan in place to deal with tornadoes just in case they happen.
Here's what we think the weather map will look like by late Saturday afternoon. The
dry line will be just into far western Oklahoma by that time, and with very warm and humid
conditions east of the dry line, we would expect to see a few storms develop. However,
it looks like there will be a fairly strong cap in place that could prevent any storms
from forming. The cap is a layer of warm air above the surface that acts like a lid on
a pot of boiling water, preventing clouds from getting tall enough to form a thunderstorm.
Because of the strong cap, the chance of a storms developing is very low. But, if a storm
can break through the cap, it will likely be severe. This will be one of those days
to just keep an eye on the skies and the radar for developing storms. If you see a storm
on radar Saturday afternoon or evening, you should probably assume it means business.
Things change on Sunday when more of the ingredients start to line up right on top of us, and depending
on where those key elements set up, we could see significant and dangerous storms across
much of our area. Here's the weather map as we expect it to look by late Sunday afternoon.
The dry line will be deeper into the body of Oklahoma and ahead of that boundary, we
expect to see very muggy warm and unstable air. The cap will be weaker on Sunday, and
we think we'll see severe storms form along the dry line by mid to late afternoon. With
very strong wind shear in place and a lot of unstable air to fuel the storms, those
storms will quickly become supercells, and the most intense storms will be capable of
producing tornadoes and large damaging hail. As of right now, we think the highest tornado
potential will be in the area shaded in orange on this map, which would include areas along
and east of Highway 81, including the I-35 corridor from Ponca City down through the
OKC metro area, then down toward Ada. Again, please don't focus too much on this exact
area. The exact placement of the tornado risk area will likely change in later forecasts
as we get more data. If you're anywhere near that area, be very alert and check later forecasts.
Everyone in the yellow and orange shaded areas should be ready for severe storms for large
hail and damaging winds.
Details are even less clear about Monday, because the exact locations of the boundaries
will be determined in part by what happens on Sunday and Sunday night. But here's our
best forecast for Monday afternoon. We see the dry line hasn't made a lot of eastward
progress, and with the other severe weather ingredients still in place, just about anyone
east of the dry line could be dealing with another round of significant severe storms,
including the possibility of tornadoes. We haven't drawn out a tornado risk area for
Monday just yet due to the uncertainties in the position of the various weather features.
However, you should really pay close attention to Monday's potential, as well, as we could
see more dangerous storms across our area.
OK, that's what we're expecting. Now, the rest is up to you! You have to be sure you
and your family are ready to deal with severe thunderstorms, and maybe even tornadoes, Sunday
and Monday. So what should you be doing today? Most of the things on this list are things
we talk about all spring long, so if you've been paying attention, most of this will be
very easy for you. A few things you might consider include making sure your storm shelter
is ready for action, just in case you need it. Have you freshened up your emergency supplies
kit with water and snacks lately? Do your flashlights still work? Maybe you need to
pick up some batteries at the store before Sunday. How about a weather radio? If you
have one, does it work? If you don't have one, you might consider picking one up today.
They start at around thirty dollars and can literally save your life. We encourage everyone
to have at least three different ways to get a warning, including a weather radio. And
finally, one of the most important things you can do is to just stay in touch with the
weather. The forecast will change between now and Sunday, so be sure to check back in
with us frequently between now and then.
There are more places to get weather information these days than ever before, and there is
almost zero excuse for anyone to ever say "it struck without warning." If you live in
any of the counties shaded in white, we are watching the weather for you, and the best
place to get the most current information is on our website. We're also very active
on social media, including Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, but remember that we do not routinely
post warnings on any of those. We're watching the weather for you, but it's up to you to
pay attention and take action when the weather turns nasty. Help us get the word out by sharing
our information with family and friends in the area who may not be paying attention.
We appreciate your help!