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Greetings and Salutations. This is JJ Brost from the National Weather Service in Tucson
Arizona. Today is Wednesday, December 12, 2012 -- or 12/12/12 -- and we have a fairly
significant change in the weather heading to Arizona tomorrow. This short briefing will
describe the approaching system and how it will impact southeast Arizona.
A strong low pressure system is currently churning off the northwest coast of California.
This system will move south along the coast of California and strengthen a bit before
it moves inland toward Arizona. For the most part, we've been fairly warm and dry over
the past few months so this system will provide a substantial change in weather for southeast
Arizona. As this system approaches on Thursday afternoon,
we will first experience strong and gusty winds. Initially, the winds will be out of
the south at around 20 to 30 mph -- which are represented by the blue colors on this
map. The lighter shades of purple indicate weaker wind speeds closer to 10 to 20 mph.
Wind gusts of around 40 mph are also expected. The winds should subside a bit overnight,
then increase again on Friday mainly over Cochise county.
By Thursday night, the precipitation should begin. For the lower elevations, mainly below
4,000 feet, rainfall is expected overnight Thursday into Friday morning with some chances
lingering all the way into Friday afternoon. For those folks above 4,000 feet, you can
expect a bit of snow with this system, which I will discuss further in a moment.
This system will also bring cooler temperatures to Southeast Arizona. We expect high temperatures
to fall about 10 degrees below average with the coolest day on Saturday. Low temperatures
will also be on the cool side but we are not expecting a widespread hard freeze for the
lower elevations with this system. In fact, low temperatures should only fall just a few
degrees below normal with the coolest morning on Sunday.
We currently have a Winter Storm Watch in effect for some of our mountain regions north
of Interstate 40 which is represented by the light blue shaded areas on the map here. The
snow may begin Thursday afternoon, but the heaviest snowfall is expected to occur overnight
Thursday into Friday morning, then slowly dissipate through Friday afternoon.
Snow accumulations between 5,000 and 7,000 feet should run in the 5 to 8 inch range.
If you go up above 7,000 feet, then we are looking at snow accumulations in the 8 to
14 inch range. If we manage to combine some of the gusty winds Thursday with snowfall,
then we would also experience some visibility restrictions. So if you either live in the
higher elevations, or plan to go into the mountains on Thursday or Friday, please be
prepared for slick roads and the potential for poor driving visibility.
Our office is located on the Campus of the University of Arizona so we are well aware
the Wildcats are playing in a football game this Saturday in Albuquerque. We do not issue
official forecasts for any football games, but we know many southeast Arizona residents
may be traveling to New Mexico for the game. So for you folks, please monitor the weather
and drive safely. There are precipitation chances in the forecast across Western New
Mexico on Friday and the higher elevations could receive snowfall.
Please check your road conditions for New Mexico by going to splash.nmroads.com or by
calling New Mexico's department of transportation hotline at 1-800-432-4269. If you are interested
in Arizona road condition information, you can go to www.az511.com or just dial 5-1-1
from any phone within the state. Thank you for your time today. You can contact
me at John.Brost@noaa.gov for any questions. Or visit our webpage at www.weather.gov/tucson.
You can also find us on Twitter at twitter.com/NWSTucson, or Facebook at www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Tucson.gov.
We also have a new YouTube account at www.youtube.com/NWSTucson.
Enjoy the change in weather.