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TO THE MINISTER OF FINANCE.
YEST
ERDAY'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
PUTS ONTARIO'S GROWTH AT
PALTRY 1.8% IN 11 AND 12 AS
OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES OF 2.7 AND 2.5%
RESPECTIVELY.
THIS MEANS REVENUES WILL BE
$1.3 BILLION LOWER
THAN
ESTIMATED IN THE LIBERALS'
SEPTEMBER ELECTION
PLATFORMMENT AND I ASK
MYSELF, HOW COULD THE
NUMBERS CHANGE SO
DRAMATICALLY IN ONLY A
MATTER OF MONTHS?
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT THE
LIBERAL NUMBERS
WERE JUST A
LITTLE INFLATED?
>> Hon. Dwight Duncan, (L):
MR. SPEAKER, I THANK THE
MEMBER FOR HIS QUESTION AND
HE IS A THOUGHTFUL AND
INTELLIGENT GUY.
HE KNOWS HOW WE SET OUR
GROWTH
ESTIMATES AT THE TIME
OF THE BUDGET.
WE TOOK THE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 13 LEADING
ECONOMISTS AND SET OURS 2
POINTS BELOW THAT.
THOSE ECONOMISTS CONTINUE TO
RAISE THEIR PROJECTIONS
RIGHT UP UNTIL SEPTEMBER,
MR. SPEAKER.
AND I
T'S ALL WELL DOCUMENTED
PUBLICLY.
THEY STARTED TO BRING THEM
DOWN IN SEPTEMBER,
MR. SPEAKER.
THE CONSENSUS IS NOW 2.0
AMONG THE ECONOMISTS.
AND OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF
CAUTION IN THE FALL
STATEMENT WE SET THAT GROWTH
ESTIMATE AT 1.8% AND THAT
HAS BEEN HOW SUCCESSSIVE
GOVERNMENTS HAVE CHOSEN TO
APPROACH THESE IMPORTANT IS
ASSUMPTIONS.
AS I SAID, MR. SPEAKER, WE
HAVE TO RELY ON THE BEST
EVIDENCE AVAILABLE AS WE
MOVE FORWARD WE HAVE DONE
THE PRUDENT THING AND I LOOK
FORWARD TO WORKING WITH
THE
MEMBER AND HIS COLLEAGUES AS
WE MOVE FORWARD.
>> Rosario Marchese, (NDP):
THERE ARE 443 MILLION LESS
THAN PREDICTED IN THE
BUDGET.
MOSTLY BECAUSE OF LOWER
PERSONAL INCOME TAX
COLLECTED AND LAST MONTH'S
GRIM EMPLOYMENT N
UMBERS
SUGGEST PERSONAL INCOME TAX
REVENUES WILL CONTINUE TO
LAG BEHIND PROJECTIONS.
NEW DEMOCRATS BELIEVE
ONTARIANS DESERVE AN
EXPLANATION.
HOW COULD THIS GOVERNMENT BE
SO FAR OFF IN ITS
PROJECTIONS IN SUCH A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME?
>> Hon. Dwight Duncan, (L):
MR. SPEAKER THIS IS
HAPPENING TO GOVERNMENTS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY INCLUDING
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENTP THE
UNITED STATES.
ECONOMISTS PRIVATE SECTOR
ECONOM
ISTS WERE VERY CLEARLY
PROJECTING MUCH MORE ROBUST
GROWTH IN THE SPRING THAN
THEY ARE NOW.
EVERY GOVERNMENT IN THE
COUNTRY HAS REDUCED THEIR
PROJECTIONS AND AGAIN, WE
BASE OUR PROJECTIONS ON THE
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 13
LEADING ECONOMISTS.
IT IS S
OMETIMES IT IS
REMARKABLY ACCURATE WE ARE
IN A MUCH MORE VOLATILE
WORLD, MR. SPEAKER, THE
MEMBER OPPOSITE I KNOW
FOLLOWS EVENTS IN EUROPE
CLOSELY AND THE UNITED
STATES IN CHINA AND JAPAN.
JUST YESTERDAY, TWO DAYS AGO,
A THIRD QUARTER U.S.
GDP WAS
DOWN STATED AND THAT HAS AN
IMPACT ON THE FORESTRY
INDUSTRY IN NORTHERN
ONTARIO.
AND THESE ARE ALWAYS
DIFFICULT BUT THAT IS THE
REALITY WE ARE FACED WITH.
I KNOW WE CAN WORK TOGETHER
TO FIND REASONABLE SOLUTIONS