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And Michael as we mentioned before I'm in the middle of writing a book that is entitled "Real
Estate's Future". And again what it is, is essentially a scoring model, where we have taken hundreds of
different factors enter them all together and what we look at is this model can actually call the top and
bottom of the real estate market. With this model we were actually able to call the top of the real
estate market in Phoenix, Arizona six months before it happened. Now were working on creating a
it for a national level. What we're seeing here today in the building numbers came out really bad. And
there was something on zillow the other day that said that Americans have lost two trillion dollars in
real estate value and you get all emotional about this especially if you're one of those people, who is
losing their homes. And you are one of the people in trouble but eventually we get to the bottom
market again. Hopefully by then I'll have my model complete and we will be able to warn people that at
least we think it's going to be the bottom of the market. I make the joke about, you know if the
bottom of the market when something happens called capitulation. When essentially everyone has
given up, and if you'll both recall when we were at the top of the market back in 2005 or 2006 you
could not go to a party without having at least 10 people to you about all the real estate that they were
buying. And all the millions of dollars that they were making. And now my definition of when we
are going to hit the bottom is when you go to a party you tell someone you are going to buy some real
estate and they all take you out back and slap you around because the think you have gone crazy. And
that's how you are really going to know that we have hit the bottom because you are not going to
know. We have hit the bottom. So I think that right now is the absolute fabulous time. Especially for
first time home buyers to jump in there and I said my brother went to out the other day and picked up
a couple of repos for like $30,000 apiece. One of them, he moved tenant Into a week later. It was
broom it out paint and carpet, and put the tenant in the house.
Brett we need to get a couple of those
I could use two of those myself right now that's the price of a car
Now, we talked about, to tie this all back into the economy you mentioned the jobs market I think. Do
you have those numbers
I do and one of the things that still sticks out in my mind from the previous broadcast last week is Dan
pointed out some numbers talking about housing sales
in Maricopa County as compared to this time a year ago and what those numbers represent now, that
number has actually increased pretty significantly. And when I look at and start thinking through the
process of what that means in terms of the marketplace, the real estate market specifically
there is a number of positive influences that the media sure is not going to sell any papers with it so
that is why it's become such an important discussion. Do you still have information about this,
Yeah Brett I still do have those numbers here and that's one of the things that we look at in the book
that I am working on writing, real estate's future. And actually if you want get on the list to get a free
copy of the book. I am going to give away the first hundred copies free you can go to my website,
realestatesfuture.com and just put in your e-mail address and your name and I'll make sure you get a
copy as soon as were done printing it which could honestly be more than a few months from now but I
am guessing before we see the bottom of this market. But one of the things we look at is year over
year home sales in the last six months we have seen a home sales increase from 07 to 08. In some cases, 30
to 40% per month. The home sales have gone up. And at the same time were seeing the median home
price come down to the $150,000-$160,000 range. Now we're definitely in a place where the median
income family can go out there and afford to buy that house. When you have 78% of the houses
selling for less than $250,000. Virtually every family in Maricopa County can afford to buy one of
those houses
We want to talk a little bit more deeply about that Dan Havey when we come back and Brett you also
have some great questions for Dan. So when we come back. We are going to look at more about this
a little bit deeper to kind of help you understand what it is that could work for you and your family
and other information in regards to the economy. You are listening to KFNX Arizona's news talk
leader and to get more information on Brett Fallon, Dan Havey, "Real Estate's Future", or velocity
financial call 480 velocity and we will be back with you in just a moment