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SQUADDING OF CLAIMS MADE BY
RUSSIAN OFFICIALS.
THANK YOU SO MUCH.
>> THE U.S. IS SUSPENDING
UPCOMING TRADE AND INVESTMENT
TALKS WITH RUSSIA OVER THE
CRISIS.
OFFICIALS ARE CONSIDERING A
FURTHER SERIES OF ECONOMIC AND
DIPLOMATIC STEPS TO ISOLATE
RUSSIA.
ALL MILITARY TO MILITARY
ENGAGEMENTS WITH RUSSIA HAVE
BEEN PUT ON HOLD ACCORDING TO
THE PENTAGON INCLUDING
EXERCISES, BUOY LATERAL
MEETINGS, PORT VISITS, PLANNING
CONFERENCES.
WE'LL HAVE KEVIN RYAN JOIN ME
LIVE FROM RUSSIAN SHA JOINING U.
HOW BIG IS A DEAL IS THIS TO PUT
ON HOLD THE MILITARY
RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA?
>> WELL, AS FAR AS I KNOW THIS
IS ONLY HAPPENED MAYBE TWICE
BEFORE SINCE THE END OF THE COLD
WAR.
IT IS A BIG DEAL.
IT HAPPENED WHEN RUSSIA INVADED
GEORGIA.
IT HAPPENED WHEN NATO FORCES
WENT INTO BOSNIA.
IT'S A BIG DEAL WHEN THIS
HAPPENS.
EVERY YEAR THE TWO MILITARIES
SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO DO ANYWHERE
FROM 60 TO 100 JOINT ACTIVITIES
OF WHICH PROBABLY FROM 40 TO 50
ARE ACTUALLY DONE.
IT'S A ROBUST COOPERATION PLAN.
TO PUT IT ON HOLD IS A BIG
IMPACT.
>> DO YOU THINK OUTING IT ON
HOLD IS THE RIGHT MOVE.
>> >> ABSOLUTELY AT THIS POINT.
IT'S ONE OF THE THINGS THE
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO AN IMMEDIATE
RESPONSE TO WHAT RUSSIA HAS
DONE.
I HEARD THE CONVERSATION EARLIER
ABOUT WHETHER THIS IS AN
INVASION OR WHETHER THESE ARE
RUSSIAN TROOPS.
I CAN TELL YOU FOR SURE.
I SERVED IN BERLIN DURING THE
END OF THE COLD WAR.
MY JOB WAS SPOTTING RUSSIAN
TROOPS AND EQUIPMENT.
THESE ARE UNQUESTIONABLY RUSSIAN
FORCES THAT ARE IN THE CRIMEA.
ANOTHER THING THAT'S IMPORTANT
TO NOTE IS ALL OF THESE FORCES
ARE SPENDING HUGE AMOUNTS OF
TIME ENCIRCLING POLICE AND
UKRAINIAN FORCES AND NOT
PROTECTING THE POPULATION.
THEIR ACTIVITIES AND OPERATIONS
INDICATE A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT
MISSION THAN WHAT PRESIDENT
PUTIN IS SUGGESTING.
>> YOU SERVED IN MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE.
GIVE US A SENSE OF THE
CAPABILITIES THAT RUSSIA HAS AND
WHAT YOU THINK BASED ON THEIR
MOVEMENTS ON THE GROUND SO FAR
THEY MIGHT BE CONSIDERING.
>> WELL I THINK FIRST OF ALL THE
RUSSIAN MILITARY IS CAPABLE.
AS LONG AS YOU KEEP IT WITHIN
THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION.
IT'S NOT ABLE TO PROJECT POWER
OVER TOO LONG A DISTANCE.
THE CRIMEA EASTERN UKRAINE IF IT
HAPPENS, THESE ARE PLACES THAT
ARE WITHIN THEIR REACH AS
GEORGIA IS.
THEY HAVE ALL MODERN EQUIPMENT.
THEY HAVE THE HELICOPTERS,
AIRCRAFT, SHIPS, TROOPS, TROOP
CARRIERS.
THEY ARE AN OVERMATCH FOR THE
UKRAINIANS.
UKRAINIANS HAVE A GOOD MILITARY,
PATRIOTIC.
I'M SURE THEY'D FIGHT FOR THE
WESTERN PART OF THE UKRAINE.
THEY WOULD FIGHT AND SHOW
THEMSELVES WELL, BUT THE
RUSSIANS WOULD BE OVERWHELMING
IN THE NUMBERS.
I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO COME
TO THAT FIGHT.
I HOPE IT DOESN'T.
IN TERMS OF THE CRIMEA, THE
CRIMEA IS ALREADY LOST.
THE RUSSIANS CONTROL IT.
THERE'S NOTHING THE WEST CAN DO
TO GET IT BACK.
>> SELF-PROPELLED ARTILLERY
UNITS, RUSSIAN ONE, SEEM TO BE
IN CRIMEA NOW.
EXPLAIN TO US, EXPLAIN TO
VIEWERS WHY THAT IS SIGNIFICANT.
WHAT ARTILLERY UNITS,
SELF-PROPELLED ARTILLERY, WHAT
THAT CAN DO AND WHAT THAT MIGHT
INDICATE RUSSIANS ARE PREPARING
FOR A FIGHT?
>> IF YOU HAVE INFANTRY UNITS,
FOOT SOLDIERS AND SMALLER GAUGE
WEAPON, THEN YOU'RE NOT REALLY
LOOKING FOR A BATTLE WITH THE
OPPOSING LAND ARMY.
YOU'RE BASICALLY DOING LOCAL
OPERATIONS, POLICE WORK,
SELF-DEFENSE AND SO ON.
BUT BY BRINGING IN ARTILLERY,
RUSSIANS WOULD HAVE SIGNALLED
THAT THEY'RE PREPARED TO TAKE ON
LARGER FORMATIONS IF THE
UKRAINIAN MILITARY FOR EXAMPLE
ATTEMPTED TO MARCH INTO THE
CRIMEA IN LARGER GROUPS.
ARTILLERY WOULD BE VITAL TO
REPELLING THAT FORCE.
>> AND LASTLY SIR, AS YOU SAY,
RUSSIA SEEMS TO BE IN
OPERATIONAL CONTROL OF THE
CRIMEA.
THE NEXT CONCERN ACCORDING TO
U.S. OFFICIALS IS WHETHER OR NOT
THEY START GOING INTO EASTERN
UKRAINE.
WHEN THEY WENT TO CRIMEA, THEY
HAD A BASE THEY WERE COMING OUT
OF.
HOW WOULD THEY START LAUNCHING
INTO EASTERN UKRAINE?
ACROSS THE BORDER OR WOULD THEY
COME UP FROM THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA?
>> YEAH, I'M PRETTY SURE WHAT
THEY WOULD DO IS COME ACROSS THE
BORDER.
THEY WOULD USE THE NUMBER OF
HIGH SPEED AVENUES OF APPROACH
INTO THE EASTERN UKRAINE, ROAD
NETWORKS RAILS AND AIRPORTS.
IT WOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR
THEM TO CROSS THAT BORDER AND TO
POSITION THEIR FORCES WHEREVER
THEY WANTED THEM.
LET ME SAY THAT I THINK -- WELL
ALL OF US MAY HAVE BEEN
SURPRISED BY THE MOVE INTO
CRIMEA.
NOTHING SHOULD BE DISCOUNTED.
I DON'T THINK IT'S -- I THINK
EASTERN UKRAINE HAS A LOT TO
SWALLOW FOR THE RUSSIAN
MILITARY.
ALTHOUGH THEY WOULD HAVE A LOCAL