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Here's what we're gonna do
where having a debate format here because that about the next 10 minutes
doing this
the start off by giving them a chance to ask a short question
each and have 30 seconds to answer it to be a 15 second rebuttal
love that answer after that that we're going freestyle for
a bit and then at the end though have a chance to wrap up so
know if you guys are ready for this public a star
with you and whether you have a question for Eric I see that Watson
does a very good job in jeopardy I see that deep blue does a very good job
in chess but these are also a single-purpose
machines do you see this
combination which individual computers can replace
humans with the wide range of things that humans do
will have to confess that I've been wrong about
artificial touches like I made I underestimated its potential the latest
wave
love AI work has taken been injured big data
to solve problems in a totally different way not the way people
solve problems but in but by throwing a lot of data that's how they're doing
machine translation now that's how they got the Google car
to drive down the road and and the result is
that have complementary skill to them what they can do is very different than
what we can do
I don't see that it the goals of me to make a up to mimic us
but to actually create some tools that can
reinforce what we're doing quick rebattle
you lost her battle to win over that gotta go ahead but let her
right you could ever ask a question objective of what will Bob you mention
the first headwind
arm was the that people are working fewer hours
I think that's right I'm but we're economist and
you know the goal is not to produce more stuff it's to make us happier increase
utility in in
the terms of your textbook rates arm so is not a good thing they were able to
work you're so we can retire more
earlier or people could take more vacations is not
kinda one of our goals for small
early retirement I is the source
a pension problems early retirement is cause the Greek fiscal
I'll blow up you need to have the retirement age
increase steadily with life expectancy the whole reason we have retirement
is primarily because it used to be the jobs were manual
now most other white-collar they're not difficult from
so I i just 101 draw out
the difference between your text you actually do agree on on quite a few
things
there too big things that I heard 1 but you're arguing basically that the
type of innovation of the 20th century is just far more significant
than anything we've seen in the last ten years and are likely to see
going forward you disagree with that
you have a view of history that is 6-2-1 in this audience we have a
basically above accelerating progress so far not anymore after bob stock it's
probably more like to wonder wonder what's
we'll see on you if I could
if I could interpret that blip that you had into a growth thing it means that
you
I think you love you love history is like this a long long two percent
.2 percent growth search have growth four hundred years or so
150 years and then flattening out to to
.2 percent for ever after that so it's you believe in that and you believe in
the F
what we've got the history we know we we accelerated
a we know that there are such great things I mean think
the significance three big inventions that occurred in the first two decades
after world war two
air conditioning it opened up the South interstate highway system vastly
increased
the productivity the supply chain a and truck drivers
if they're possibility that your basically subject to adjust the human
psychological allusion that we see change
naturally and we think we're in this fast-changing era but actually compared
to what happened a hundred years ago
it's just not nearly as significant the grandfather in 1950s or much more
changed his life than the grandfather today
well there's no question changed a different we've taken care of a lot of
our physiological needs like that
toilet knowledge that that's great I know I wouldn't want to go back in now
with
I was thrilled when my when when my kids learn how to be toilet trained
together but there's more to life than just take care those basic needs
and i think is that there is a psychological a basic mistake people
make is that
you sitting on top of an s-curve your use inventions go through S curves
you seen top aback when you think you can see what you've gotten so far
it's a lot harder to look forward and see the things that haven't been
invented yet
so we I think have a bias that we see got two hundred years ago
popcorns grandfather might have said that we have reached the pinnacle of
course you manufacturing you just can't make it any better
are but you have to look at what the next inventions a good
he thinks of the
the charge here is that is that you just
you like imagination you're not I
what what what we all do why is that wrong well
Eric really nailed it when he's when he said we've got this disconnect between
productivity and employment
me take the robots the robots
are gonna make money for the people who invent them they're gonna make money for
the people who
own them and they're going to do displaced workers the refrigerator guy
said that's the only thing I know how to do with my life and many of them are
dropping out
what good is a world in which we have these really snazzy machines
and we listened always great music for free on the internet
but we don't have gainful employment and we have the next generation coming up
with high school dropouts so so this is the key difference between you know
actually
I agree this is their I think a key source
agreement I think technology is racing at the problem is
that instead have this freeing up time for us all to
you know have a digital Afghans and write poetry whenever
some people are going becoming unemployed
lot of people are sharing this so the problem is not with our technology
it with ourselves we need to reinvent your organization so we can share
this prosperity more body fat this aside we wanna live in how do we do that
I don't have the answer yet
I got some thus how do we do that I've got some okay
first thing we have too many old people not enough young people
we not only need to legalize all the illegal immigrants
we need to let people come in when they want
it is total insanity that we have tourist visas
we have millions of people in China the wanna come and visit this country
why not let him come and visit this country and hopefully if you're the
smartest ones will stay
in a bit more good stuff and something else
we have a walk have young african-american men
going to prison because we penalize
drug use we could simultaneously
cut fifty billion dollars in costs we could
really cream those drug gangs and cartels in Mexico
if we just legalize drugs right
who are you we knew we were having in it and its director
above comments from you a
mitts K four is pointed out that in rural China you housing lacks indoor
plumbing but
everyone has a cell phone if the other choice do that vote here
I don't forget Palm Springs on do it there as well I'm into a version of your
experiment if you had the choice between
living in a place with indoor plumbing hot showers in a toilet
but no internet no internet
no access or internet and no indoor plumbing
whatever you had to just make do go off to the river a setup
but so you can retain the answer and this is by the way for the next
year yet to carry the water markets
remember you have to know pipes are who will retain
indoor plumbing
who would say the Internet in
you know that is about sixty four seasons help
we have I knew we had at least forty percent Nerdist tendency people it said
yeah if you've read it because you made him give up the whole internet and I
only made him give up
the last 30 years governments okay one more 10
from that marks on just saying that look it's not about economic growth that the
issue is better
human lives in and this this seems to be the core this issue
you're saying you're both saying that so much of the growth that
is that is being lost because it's not going to
the bottom 99 percent that's what you're measuring when you say that growth
is is over and I think you agree that that is a serious problem in a day or do
agree
is some redistributive tax part of your solution here
we have a lot of tax loopholes we have a lot of tax subsidies
and I think we need wholesale tax reform
but also we need something else and that is we need
early remedial childhood education for the poverty popular
price he said heat until
was was going to be a couldn't couldn't make it was me but this debate he
famously said
you know we dreamed a flying cars and what we got is a 140 characters
I'm on the put to use you know you talk about this wonderful future innovation
but then your example was cat robots you know that would move a catalog I think
the most important inventions
I but isn't their a worry that or this amazing things
out that your student created just it put pictures on a grid or whatever
it's not that significant as what has happened before no no I disagree I mean
so let's take the Bobby the example that we can go faster than the speed of sound
I set up my learning physics in fact you can go a lot faster than that
and recently I had how very uncommon speak at my class at MIT
and up less than a second later he was talking to Larry Page
in California how did he do that because he came in by videoconference
and so we have a lot of innovations that are
completely doing and run around the horse carriage
or that 707 and just because they made a bits
doesn't make them any less valuable if they're changing the way people live
but I think it's okay how come you came out here on a plane instead video
conferencing here
I we made a out
my last on a specific process few you made a good case
in terms have the physical way that we live our lives has been spectacular
chains Law Center not so much now
but couldn't someone say that what we're getting now is spectacular innovation in
knowledge
on that the question is what matters more the way you commute to work
the way you live your life or what you actually no I'm just gonna say
knowledge for what what is the value have all this knowledge
what is the actual value with Facebook what is the value our friendship
okay well those are great questions to those a great questions to
reverberate during and the rest to this week we're at a time on this and I would
like to to have another vote though so just stay here and watch this will bring
up palm springs plays
on on the thing and you at home do your own little vote and tell us what the
answer is
I want to I'm just going back to that original simple question do you believe
that all things considered
that I the story of our history and
are likely future is accelerated program of
I'm yes o no who but who votes know now having the students who votes now
K
and who votes yes so
as shakespeare said much sound and fury about nothing no one's mind was changed
o.o
itself it paths can work Asik
you know what you know what I think happened I think everyone
dots to a more nuanced and rich understanding of these issues and I'm
telling what this is going to infuse
the rest of this conference thank you both so much thank you.