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I want to start with some rather basic sayings
You can't see it if you don't know it.
2010 was actually the hottest year ever recorded
I had this confirmed two days ago by some researchers working on this
And although its rather banal i think its quite important
to emphasize the obvious now and again
Man is a strange creature
we can imagine a lot of things
but, yet when it's snowing outside
It's as if, problems we don't like
maybe just dissappeared by themselves
While this summer in Pakistan,
this summer Mr Putin
President Putin in Russia
Right now in Brisbane and many other areas in Australia
People start to realise when it's coming close
that something strange is happening, and then they start to reflect
Just a few fact to set the scene on what challenges we're in for
I read a few days ago that while we globally now have 800,000 000 cars
in the next 20 years, that amount will double
into 1.6 Billion cars
You don't have to be a climate expert to understand
that we are in for a challenge in such a field
for many reasons, not just environmental reasons
We know that when my children are my age, there will be 9 Billion on planet earth
I mean you don't have to live through it, to know
that if we continue the present way of creating our growth
then 9 Billion people spells trouble
I also heard from a professor yesterday
That these 9 Billion, will eat the equivalent of 12 Billion
as the average income comes up, and consumer patterns change
And final thing, it's very very easy to make
the prognosis that with great certainty
Oil prices will sky-rocket in the next decades
there is no way that they wont
Actually i read a rather interesting article
Maybe you saw it, it was a small one in the FT yesterday
That right now coal prices are the highest for several years,
why, because of the flooding in Australia
Not flooding the coal mines, but now its not possible
to transport the coal from the mines to ship it
Isn't that an ironic story
So, again you do not have to be convinced about climate science
to know that we are in for some very very
expensive solutions if we just continue business as usual
In many many ways
We already see it
Last weekend i was in Denmark
all over the place the news was now
gasoline prices are the highest ever
In financial terms last Tuesday
you could see that the increased bill for imported oil
in the OECD countries, in 2010, the hottest year ever
The increased bill for oil was equivalent to 0.5%
of the OECD countries GDP
and in Europe alone
we payed 70 billion US dollars more for imported oil than we
did for the year before
I mean it's just a kind of economic discussion, choices
that we do not normally discuss
thats just bills we pay
But if we discuss whether we should invest 20 or 30 billion
in innovative solutions, then it is a huge discussion
There is some irony in that i think
So my question is do we really have to
feel the heat before we understand that for many reasons that its imperative
to pursue a more sustainable and green kind of growth
Actually i think, thats the point the whole debate on climate
over the recent 3,4,5 years has helped drive home
Today climate is about much more than climat
for instance suddenly makes energy policy sexy
that was not the case 5 or 10 years ago, i can tell you
I know that to start my intervention here by repeating
these things for you is unnecessary as
if you were not aware of this you would not be here
But i have stated it as i think there is still some basic information
and some basic thinking that we need to communicate out there
Also that the climate issue is not just about 2 degrees and 450ppm
Its about our growth model, and how to make innovative solutions more
resources efficient solutions
About how to increase jobs, and increase energy security
and i think iot;s this broader narrative that we need to focus on
That of course is also what internation climate negotiations
like Cancun, basically are about
and im not going to dwell on the results of Cancun because i take it
that those of you who want to know the details
you know them already
But very briefly, what was politically interesting was that
we managed sort of to save
multilateralism, it was proved that multilateralism
can still provide results
sometimes it takes longer than some would like
But actually it provided results
Also because people knew and the parties knew
Well one thing is that, the only forum where you agree to negotiate these things
then it would die out
not in the formal sense but in reality
and nobody wanted to get the blame for not delivering
So we actually got all the elements from the Copenhagen accord
the financial part, the 2 degrees, the new language on MRV, the pledges
All of this is now anchored in the form of UN documents
But we also go the adaptation framework, the technology,
the foresrty part, and subtantial progress on MRV.
To be honest with you, that was the most interesting result of Cancun
that we agreed to increase substantially
the transparecy in this area
and i think that was a rather big achievement
There are many reasons why
we achieved this, as i said lessons were learnt
and nobody wanted to take the blame
everybody knew that if they didnt deliver,
the process risked failure
The Mexican president did a very fine job
and they also had a number of very good allies
trying to manage expectations, and give specific imput to solutions
and i would say that among those allies were the Europeans
We suggested already in March 2010
what we called a step-wise approach
we came up with very specific imput, in specific areas
and much of what you see in the text is inspired by European suggestions
And i think strategically it meant we were open to take
a second committment period
You could also put it this way....
If everyone had said 'no we are not' i dont think you would have agreement
with all the countries onboard, except for Bolivia
So i would briefly say that Europe produced results
and that we also managed this time to speak with one voice
That was very important to see from a European perspective
So what now? Well Durban is coming up
there is a huge work program, lots of details
lots of implementation to be done
and of course lots of discussion about what should happen after 2012
How to add to the pledges, lots of things
The work will continue and 6 moths after
Durban in December we will have the real G-20 conference
where the whole world will have to define what in the 21st century
what it means to talk about sustainable global growth
so there will be an opportunity there to set some global targets
But enough about these international negotiations
because this is very important for many reasons
You know them, but it's not enough
Now ministers, regions, countries, sectors must start doing things
Of course also in Europe.
And the last part of my intervention will sort of
focus on some of these key things left to do
Last year in May, in a communication, the Commssion adressed
whether we should step up form 20 to 30%, what's the cost, benefit,
what would it require, what are the challenges
and in that communication we actually introduced
one new way of seeing things
Yes, Europe links going beyond 20%, to what others are doing
and in that sense, to the international negotiations
where are they heading, to try to use this
to give some leverage in the negotiations
But we introduced a new thing.
The European Self interest, that ambitions target can stimulate innovation
growth and job creation
I think that was a rather important power change in the way we see this
that was a new dimension
And in the Commissions work program for 2020, resource efficiency,
and the low carbon society is made one of the flagships
It's a pillar in whatever we do, and in the new Commission we really work
like mainstreaming, not only will the climate commissioner be responsible for
mainstreaming, thats my key responsibility, but i mean i cant really do that if
the transport commissioner would not also think that whatever he does
if we are talking about 2050, that when he comes up with his
white paper for transport, or the energy commissioner
comes up with energy efficiency action plan,
or when we come up with the 2050 roadmap for a low carbon society
then these things will have to be seen in a sort of holistic approach
That's why this Commission think about mainstreaming
if we are working together in innovation in budgets etc then we can come back together to the details
This is not something for the future, this is what we are presenting in two months from the Commission
And by the way in the 2050 road map we can see where we need to be in 2030
I mean it's not always that difficult to discuss what will happen 40 years from now
But you have to get on track to be there
and then we will also discuss how to move beyond 20% is that possible
As you know a number of member states have said now that yes,
they think so, and they think that's the right policy
United Kingdom, Germany, France, Denmark, Finland, Spain and more on thier way
and thats also a discussion we will have here in the first half of this year
I know that some indistries would fear
that, if we are really being ambitious in this field
wouldn't it harm our competitivness...? What about carbon leakage
I think it's very important to realise that carbon leakage is not a one way street
There are many ways of loosing jobs
There are also some inevitable ways to lose jobs.
I mean Europe has for decades lost jobs
functions that, we do not have in out societies anymore, which have been outsourced
so it's not a question whether you will lose jobs, you always lose some as things change
But the big issue is do you create new areas, new strongholds
where you can also create new jobs.
I think that if you are too complacent as a region, if you are to hesitant
then you can also risk loosing jobs, in the new geo-strategical picture
where we see some competitors embracing this agenda
of Energy efficiency, resource efficient solutions, new technology innovation and so on
Im not going to dwell a lot with the next 5 years Chinese plan
I will just say that i bvelieve that many Europeans will be in for a surprise not to talk about
many Americans, when they see the next 5 year plan
If we take what we have been able to read about it,
there will be pricing mechnism for energy, carbon targets
there will probably be pilot projects for some kind of carbon trading system
and we can see when we look at the new industrial priority area
for industrial innovation, there are 7 areas and almost all of them
are related to energy, environment and climate, thats just the reality
And by the way the reality is that in China they tripled investment in education over the last 10 years
and they are also putting education and innovation forces into the areas we are talking about here
Through the Copenhagen accord, around 80 countries
in the world have now set domestic C02 reduction targets
some real reductions, some deviations from business as usual
But basically 80 countries have now domestic targets
So not just talking about China but also Korea, Brazil, Indonesia
Many other countries, it is clear to see that in an area where Europe
used to be the undisputed frontrunner, our leadership is being challenged
I think that this market, its very important for our economies to have a frontrunner position here
Some would say it will double the market for energy efficient products
it will double before 2020
Some argue, HSBC for instance, that it will triple to a combined value of 2.2 trillion in 2020
I think its rather obvious theimportance of a front running position in such a market
So finally, what can we then do?
I think we have a long history in the environmental field in Europe
that proves that targets help to get things done
Target helps politicans to focus, to keep focus get things done, and get them done faster that in another case
We need some pricing mechanisms, thats what the ETS system is about
but we also need, outside of the ETS system, without the emmissions trading system
to be able to a higher degree, to price energy and resources
I saw that an American paper company has named me the EU's new tax Commissioner
so maybe that would be an interesting portfolio, as i think thats one of the areas where we need
a paradigm shift. The big challenge in Europe is high labour costs
among one of the reasons, high taxation on labour
maybe if we taxed our energy and resources more, that would also benefit our overall model
Not going to dewll a lot on this, but briefly if we taxed more what we burn, and less what we earn
i think there is really room for a paradigm shift there
It's not going to come in a year or two, but as a vision
we should tax labour less, when we need people to work more, and attract a labour force
and we should tax resources more when we need to focus on resource efficiency
So, we need to have the price mechanism, the incentive must be there for investment in these areas
and also for investors, when they are looking for innovation
It's very important that the incentive stucture is right in this area
And then finally, we must address innovation, we could do more at the European level
recently we had this new entrance serivce, technically surplus money from auctioning
it generates 4.5 billion euro, quite a lot of money
and it goes into innovative energy efficient projects and CCS
I think that at European level we could get more output
if we were better at pooling our resources in research and development,
particularly when it come to demonstration projects
so thats one of the area we could get more added value at European level
by pooling our resources.
Finally, i think, that what we also need, now i;ve mentioned targets,
i would also mention standards, price mechanism, incentives, and investments in innovation
as some of the key tools.
But finally,then i also think that we must have a more 'future oriented' discussion on growth
Growth in the 21st century can not only be GDP growth
what about the depletion of nature, raw materials, the consequences to health, air quality, clean ater
that kind of growth, i believe is very important in the world of the 21st century
and there I think that out methods so far to measure growth, is probably very inadequate
So here a shift is necessary, and i think the basic choice we are faced with in Europe is
whether we want to be the ones delivering these transformational new solutions first
so that we can gain from the solutions ourselves, or we will hesitate, ponder shake our hands
wait and see while others take up the frontrunner position in this race
I really believe that to keep Europe in a winning position, we need the targets, standards
we need to invest more in innovation, we need positive incentives, we need some other pricing mechanisms
then finally we need all stakeholders, including of course business that can prove
that its not just something that some of us claim
that you can make a fun interesting and prosperous society through green solutions
That you can actually prove in practice that it's not pure theory
and in practical life you can deliver solutions
and thats where i think that to collaborate with business is absolutely key
if this is going to go from what you called it in the introduction,
'nice to have' and i hope we can have some imput to inspire further discussion