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Rajab Safarov, director general of the Center for the Study of Contemporary Iran:
The situation around Iran is heating up with every day.
It is obvious that the transitional movement is continuing
and that this is in line with the policies of certain countries which have initiated this shady enterprise,
entitled the "resolution of the Iranian issue".
Now it has become absolutely clear why the IAEA report was published on December 9, 2011.
It has become obvious why this report came to such conclusions.
Western countries headed by the US needed an excuse,
the aim is already known and it is a change of the political regime in Iran.
For the solution of this problem any excuse might work.
So the situation is heating up, both sides are behaving on the verge of illegality
and are playing on each other's nerves.
In this situation any technical mistake, any minor provocation
or weakness of one of the sides can lead to already unpredictable consequences.
The USA is the most interested party in this conflict.
Many people think that Israel will be the first to bomb Iran.
In fact, Israel is extremely interested in escalating the situation.
Control over Iran will be established.
What will in fact happen?
What problems will be solved?
About two or three weeks after the establishment of control in Iran all the countries of Central Asia
would become oriented towards Washington.
The Caspian region would accommodate the military fleet of the US.
Georgia would join NATO within about two days.
Azerbaijan would lose its direction, or more precisely would also change it.
Appealing and promising statements from the West might also make it join NATO.
Armenia, separated from Russia and Iran, would pass Nagorno-Karabakh over to
Azerbaijan out of considerations of security and would also join NATO.
It is absolutely obvious that the CIS as a commonwealth of independent states would cease to exist.
It is obvious that such an important organization as the CSTO would also cease to exist.
It is absolutely obvious that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization would face extremely radical changes.
Via Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Southern transport regions, the energy resources of Central Asia
and the Caspian region would be relocated to Europe and other world markets, bypassing Russia.
The demand on energy resources and expected problems associated with transportation
would not allow Russia to make enough money in order to sustain a very serious military budget
or large-scale social programs.
Most importantly, Russia would lose political partners and face very serious challenges.
The US solves another problem this way – serious mechanisms of influence on China.
In fact, by establishing control over Iran, the US would become the single master, the country,
which in fact coordinates and solves any questions related to price formation,
energy market development and influence on this market.
The monarchies of the Persian Gulf for each ton or barrel of oil asks the permission of Washington already.
It asks for permission because the US is the guarantor of their personal safety.
The political system of Iran at the moment is very appealing to many people in the Islamic world.
The level of freedom and democratization in this country, despite what is being said,
is much higher and deeper than in many other states of the Islamic world.
The cynical application of double standards to Iran is absolutely obvious.
The Americans and the West do not care about the state of development of the nuclear program of Iran.
They are not interested in the level of freedom, human rights or other social conditions of Iranian citizens.
They are interested only in a political system that does not allow them to have access to energy resources
or control over Iran.
The objective of overthrowing the regime has been established.
What is the role of Russia? What will Russia's reaction be?
What will happen to Russia and how should we react to this possible conflict?
In fact, I believe that Iran is not in the biggest danger, the biggest danger is to be faced by Russia.
After the establishment of control over Iran, its territory will accommodate dozens of military bases.
With the help of Iranian influence in Central Asia, the US will dominate in these territories.
Russia should not become a passive observer of its execution,
which is currently being planned by Western countries headed by the US.
A change in the political system in Iran is the beginning of the collapse of the Russian Federation.
This is the danger faced by Russia, or at least this is the way I see it.
Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Institute for Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, professor:
The situation in the Middle East is heated up to the highest point.
What is the reason and the basis of it all?
It is the nuclear problem of Iran.
It was discovered almost ten years ago.
Before that there used to be an ideological confrontation between the US and Iran.
If an IAEA member is secretly conducting nuclear experiments uncontrolled by the IAEA,
it leads to a number of questions.
Since 2006, six resolutions of the UN Security Council have been issued,
by the highest international organization, so to speak.
Four of these resolutions contained sanctions against Iran.
In the autumn of 2009 Iran began to conduct a confrontational policy,
considering its nuclear program and decisions regarding its nuclear program.
Not refusing to take part in negotiations…
I remember that in January 2010, Istanbul hosted the last negotiations between the "six" and Iran.
Before that Iran had stipulated conditions for these talks.
We do not have the problem of Iran's nuclear weapons, we have the issue of the general security
of the Middle East, the issue of world disarmament, the issue of climate change, etc.
And the "six" had gathered to resolve precisely Iran's nuclear program.
As expected, this meeting was a complete failure.
Afterwards, Iran certainly did not initiate any compromises considering the "six" and suggestions
that were put forward.
I believe that first of all Europe became impatient and took a very serious step.
Undoubtedly they made this serious step after consultations with the US and other countries –
they have announced that an oil embargo would be introduced against Iran in Brussels on January 23.
Nothing like that had ever happened before.
Iran is in a very difficult situation.
According to the estimates of some economists, Iran is going to lose
from between 15 billion and 20 billion dollars annually.
The tension is growing and Iran, as is known,
or at least as it has been announced, will block the Hormuz Strait.
In fact, this will signal war to the US and the countries of the Persian Gulf.
In this case we would not guess any longer whether the US would launch an attack or not – it would.
Who would profit from it?
It seems to me that tensions surrounding Iran bring advantages to everyone, while no one needs war.
As we know, in March 2012 there will be parliamentary elections to the Iranian Majalis and
presidential elections in the summer of 2013.
The political situation in Iran is very serious.
There is a serious confrontation between the presidential supporters of Ahmadinejad
and groups supporting the chair of the Majalis, the so-called Larijani.
These groups are sometimes defined as conservatives and neo-cons.
I would say that young revolutionaries similar to Ahmadinejad
are confronted by old revolutionaries in turbans
who conducted the Islamic revolution and accumulated all the power in their hands.
If Iranians do not block the Hormuz Strait in the near future,
at least before the presidential elections in Iran, I doubt that any military activity
will be conducted against this country.
Vladimir Isayev, orientalist, researcher at the Institute for Oriental Studies:
The current situation in the Middle East, using the Russian terminology, is as ever close to an explosion.
In order to prevent this, we need the efforts of the international community,
which is at the moment occupied by other problems.
The crisis in Europe? Yes, of course. Recession? Yes, of course. Oil prices? Yes, of course.
No one wants to take responsibility in order to somehow develop peace processes in this part of the world.