Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
>> Steve Cochrane: THE YELLOW
STATES ARE STATES THAT ARE
IN RECOVERY, BUT RECOVERY,
UH, IS VERY-VERY, UH, SLOW.
AND THERE IS SOME RISK THAT-
THAT, IF THERE WERE
A SLOW DOWN IN THE ECONOMY,
UH, IF THERE WERE TO BE
A DOUBLE DIP,
THE CHANCES ARE,
IT WOULD BE IN THOSE STATES
THAT ARE COLORED, UH, ORANGE,
UH, RIGHT NOW.
WE CAN BRING THIS
CLOSER TO HOME.
THIS IS A LITTLE
ODD-LOOKING MAP
OF CALIFORNIA.
UH, I FORGET ABOUT
NORTHERN CAL--
NO, UH, THE-THESE ARE
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS
OF CALIFORNIA,
THE NORTHERNMOST
METROPOLITAN AREAS--
REDDING, UH, SONOMA COUNTY,
UH, IS A SINGLE COUNTY
METROPOLITAN AREA.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT
I'VE GOT SONOMA, UH-UH, GREEN,
THAT-THAT MY ASSESSMENT IS,
IN THE STATE OF
THE BUSINESS CYCLE HERE
IS NOW VERY, UH, IS BETTER,
AND IT IS, UH, RECOVERING.
THERE ARE FOUR FACTORS
THAT GO INTO
THIS BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATOR.
I LOOK AT, UH, EMPLOYMENT
ON A MONTH-TO-MONTH BASIS
AND LOOK AT EMPLOYMENT
COMPARED TO WHERE IT WAS
SIX MONTHS AGO.
I LOOK AT INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION.
WE HA-- WE, UH, UH,
MAKE ESTIMATES OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BASED ON
THE VERY-VERY DETAILED, UH,
UH, INDUSTRY, UH, LEVEL DATA
THAT WE GET FROM
THE FEDERAL RESERVE
EVERY MONTH.
UH, I USE, UH,
HOUSING STARTS
AS AN ESTIMATE
OF, UH, LOCAL,
UH, INVESTMENT.
IT'S ABOUT THE ONLY MEASURE
WE HAVE AT THE LOCAL LEVEL
FOR, UH, INVESTMENT.
AND I USE HOUSE PRICES
AS A MEASURE
OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH.
IT'S, AGAIN, IT'S A PROXY,
BUT IT'S THE CLOSEST THING
WE HAVE, UH, HERE, UH,
AT THE COUNTY LEVEL
OR METROPOLITAN AREA LEVEL.
HERE IN SONOMA,
THE-THE TWO FACTORS
THAT-THAT REALLY, UH, CAUSE
THE BUSINESS CYCLE INDEX
TO-TO BE TURNING UPWARD
AND FOR US TO BE PUTTING
SONOMA COUNTY
IN THE RECOVERY CATEGORY
ARE EMPLOYMENT
AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION.
THOSE ARE THE TWO, UH,
OUT OF THE FOUR FACTORS
THAT ARE TURNING UP.
AND THE OTHERS ARE ESSENTIALLY,
UH, UH, FLAT.
SO, IT'S PRETTY GOOD.
YOU CAN SEE THAT, YOU KNOW,
THE-THE COUNTY FAIRS BETTER
THAN, UH, THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY,
UH, UH, MUCH OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
AND EVEN DOWN
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
L.A. AND THE RIVERSIDE
SAN BERNARDINO METRO AREAS,
ARE SEEING PRETTY, UH-UH,
MILD PACE OF, UH-UH,
OF-OF-OF RECOVERY.
IT'S HERE IN-IN THE NORTH BAY
AND IN SAN FRANCISCO
AND-AND SILICON VALLEY
WHERE WE'RE SEEING
THE STRONGER RECOVER-
RECOVERIES IN CALIFORNIA.
I MENTIONED- I MENTIONED
EARLY ON THAT, UH,
THE, UH, RECESSION
WAS PARTICULARLY PAINFUL
IN SONOMA COUNTY.
UH, MIKE MENTIONED
THE LOSS OF 20,000 JOBS
FROM A-A-A PEAK BACK,
UH, BACK IN LATE 2007,
ABOUT 190,000 JOBS TOTAL.
AND YOU CAN SEE HERE,
THIS IS JUST THE, UH,
PERCENT CHANGE A YEAR AGO
OF EMPLOYMENT, AND I COMPARE
SONOMA COUNTY, THE GREEN LINE,
VERSUS CALIFORNIA
ON THE ORANGE
AND THE U.S. ON THE BLUE,
AND IT WAS REMARKABLY
A-A DIFFICULT PERIOD.
UH, IT WAS VERY-VERY TOUGH.
UH, THERE WAS REALLY
NO INDUSTRY LEFT UNTOUCHED
IN TERMS OF THE DOWNTURN.
AND YOU CAN SEE EVEN FURTHER,
HOW FAR WE HAD TO GO
TO GET BACK TO WHERE WE WERE.
THIS SIMPLY TAKES EMPLOY--
THOSE SAME EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS
AND INDEXES THEM
BACK TO DECEMBER OF 2007,
WHICH WAS THE BEGINNING
OF THE, UH, THE-THE RECESSION.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT, UH,
IF WE-- IF WE COMPARE
WHERE WE ARE, RIGHT NOW,
WE'RE ABOUT AT THAT 90,
UH-UH, BAR.
THAT MEANS THAT EMPLOYMENT
IS STILL ABOUT TEN PERCENT
BELOW WHERE IT WAS BACK
IN ITS, UH, PEAK.
THAT'S THAT LOSS OF-
OF CLOSE TO 20,000, UH, JOBS.
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
IS IMPROVING A LITTLE BIT.
UH, IT PEAKED AT 10.5%.
NOW, IT'S, UH,
ESSENTIALLY 10% NOW.
NINE POINT NINE
WAS THE-THE-THE FIGURE
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY, UH,
WHEN WE ADJUST FOR SEASONALITY.
WHAT I THINK FI--
I FIND A LITTLE BIT
OF HEARTENING NEWS HERE, TOO,
IN FACT, IS-IS THAT YOU CAN
SEE THE GAP BETWEEN SONOMA
AND THE U.S. NARROWING IN
OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS HERE.
THERE'S A LONG WAY
TO GO HERE, OF COURSE,
BUT THE GAP IS NARROWING.
THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER
AND GETTING BETTER,
UH, A-A LITTLE BIT,
UH, FASTER.
WHEN WE, UH, WHEN WE LOOK
AT INCOME GROWTH,
THINGS ARE GETTING BET--
A LITTLE BETTER, AS WELL.
MY POINT HERE IS THAT,
ALSO, UH, IN TERMS OF
THE COUNTY,
THE DOWNTURN WAS HARDEST.
BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT
LATE 2010, EARLY 2011,
THE GREEN BAR IS ABOVE
THE, UH, ORANGE
OR THE BLUE BAR.
IT WAS THE SAME WAY
IN TERMS OF EMPLOYMENT
AND THE SAME WAY IN TERMS OF
INCOME THAT THE COUNTY, NOW,
HERE, IS SEEING A LITTLE BETTER
GROWTH MONTH TO MONTH,
QUARTER TO QUARTER,
UH, THAN WE ARE SEEING
IN CALIFORNIA, BROADLY SPEAKING,
OR ACROSS THE U.S.
SO, THE-THE RECOVERY IS,
I THINK, MEANINGFUL HERE
IN, UH, SONOMA COUNTY, NOW.
WHEN WE LOOK AT SOME OF
THE, UH, RISKS
THAT I MENTIONED EARLIER,
UH, IF WE LOOK AT, UH,
OR SOME OF THE FACTORS
THAT ARE, UH, ACTUALLY
HELPING THE ECONOMY
GET BETTER, ONE IS THAT,
HERE IN SONOMA COUNTY,
HOUSEHOLDS ARE DELEVERAGING
VERY QUICKLY, AS WELL.
UH, AND THAT WILL HELP, AGAIN,
AS THERE'S, UH-UH,
REAL JOB GROWTH RETURNS
TO THE COUNTY AND CONSUMERS
DECIDE IT'S TIME
TO SPEND, AGAIN.
WE LOOK AT TOTAL HOUSEHOLD
DEBT OUTSTANDING.
THAT'S THE ORANGE LINE
ON THE LEFT-HAND AXIS.
AGAIN, DATA FROM EQUIFAX.
UH, WE ARE ACTUALLY BACK DOWN
TO ABOUT A 2006 LEVEL,
IN TERMS OF TOTAL DEBT
OUTSTANDING IN THE COUNTY.
THAT'S A REALLY GOOD THING.
THAT MEANS THAT THE-
THE DEBT SERVICE BURDEN
IS FALLING IN A REAL WAY.
UH, DELINQUENCY RATES
ARE STILL A LITTLE BIT HIGH.
THE-THE BLUE BAR
AND THE ORANGE BAR HERE
ON THE RIGHT-HAND AXIS
ARE THE DELINQUENCY RATES
FOR THE COUNTY,
UH, WHICH IS THE BLUE LINE,
AND FOR THE U.S.,
WHICH IS THE GREEN LINE.
YOU CAN SEE THAT
THE-THE RELATIVE,
UH, RATES HAVE SHIFTED
OVER THE LAST DECADE.
FOR YEARS,
UH-UH-UH-UH, DELIN--
CONSUMER DELINQUENCY RATES
WERE ALWAYS LOWER
IN SONOMA COUNTY,
GIVEN THE-THE HIGHER
PER CAPITA INCOME HERE.
UH, BUT STILL, IT-IT SWITCHED,
AND DELINQUENCY RATES
ARE STILL A BIT HIGHER
IN THE COUNTY THAN THEY ARE,
UH, NATIONWIDE.
HERE, AGAIN, THE GAP
IS BEGINNING TO NARROW.
I THINK I SEE REAL PROGRESS,
IN TERMS OF GETTING BACK,
UH, ON TRACK.
HOUSE PRICES ARE-
ARE NEAR BOTTOM.
THEY ACTUALLY STARTED
TO RETURN, UH-UH-UH,
TO A LITTLE BIT OF
PRICE APPRECIATION
BACK LATE LAST YEAR
WHEN THERE WERE FEDERAL
AND, HERE IN CALIFORNIA,
STATE LEVEL TAX INCENTIVES,
UH, THAT HELPED SPUR
THE HOUSING MARKET.
GAVE US, I THINK, A LITTLE
FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY
THAT THE BOTTOM WAS, UH, HERE.
AND THEN, WHEN ALL THOSE
INCENTIVES DISAPPEARED,
ALL OF A SUDDEN,
UH, HOME BUYING,
UH, SLOWED DOWN, AGAIN.
AND PRI-- AND AT THE SAME TIME,
THAT THERE WERE MORE
MORTGAGE FORECLOSURES,
MORE REO PROPERTIES
OUT ON THE MARKET.
AND SO, WE BROUGHT--
SEEN PRICES FALTER, AGAIN,
UH-UH-UH, LATE 2010
AND INTO THE EARLY MONTHS
OF-OF, UH, UH, 2011.
BUT, UH, I THINK WE,
AS I SAID, I THINK-
I THINK THE LIGHT
IS AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL,
IN TERMS OF THE HOUSING MARKET.
WE GET THROUGH THE END
OF THIS YEAR--
I THINK WE'LL SEE
A BETTER 2012,
SOME STABILITY IN 2012,
IN TERMS OF-OF HOUSE PRICES,
AND THAT WILL MAKE
A REAL DIFFERENCE
IN TERMS OF-OF
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
AND, UH, CONSUMER SPENDING.
THE PRESSURE IS-IS STILL THERE,
AS I MENTIONED, IN THE COUNTY.
THIS IS THE, UH,
MORTGAGE FORECLOSURE INVENTORY.
THIS IS THE NUMBER
OF FORECLOSED MORTGAGES,
AND I, UH, NORMALIZED IT
BY DIVIDING IT
BY THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS.
SO, IT'S THE NUMBER OF
MORTGAGE FORECLOSURES
PER THOUSAND HOUSEHOLDS.
THIS IS DATA THAT, UH,
WE OBTAINED FROM REALTY TRAC,
UH, WHICH IS ANOTHER FIRM
THAT TRACKS THE-
THE MORTGAGE MARKET.
AND YOU CAN SEE HERE
THAT, UH, IT STILL IS
PROBLEMATIC IN THE COUNTY.
THE-THE MORTGAGE FORECLOSURE
INVENTORY RATE, IF YOU WILL,
IS STILL ABOVE
THE U.S. AVERAGE.
IT'S ABOVE, UH, THE SAN JOSE
AND SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREAS.
UH, BUT, YOU KNOW,
IT'S KIND OF IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE PACK FOR THE BAY AREA.
WE LOOK A LITTLE BETTER
THAN OAKLAND, A LITTLE--
OAKLAND A LITTLE BIT BETTER
THAN, UH, SOLANO COUNTY
AND A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE CALIFORNIA,
UH, AVERAGE AS A WHOLE.
SO, UH, HERE AGAIN,
THIS IS SIMPLY, UH,
A PART OF THE-THE RISK
FOR THE ECONOMY.
BUT I THINK THAT THE-
THE FUNDAMENTALS
ARE GETTING BETTER,
AND ONE OF IT
IS SIMPLY IMPROVING
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS,
UH, IN THE COUNTY.
AND THIS, I TAKE A LONGER VIEW.
THIS, I GO BACK TO 1980.
AND, UH, THIS ALSO HELPS ME
SEGUE A LITTLE BIT
INTO SORT OF THINKING ABOUT
MY EXPERIENCE HERE
IN THE COUNTY OVER THE LAST,
UH, 15 YEARS OR SO.
UH, WHEN YOU LOOK AT
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS HERE,
WHEN WE WERE FIRST--
WHEN I BEGAN FIRST WORKING
WITH THE COUNTY BACK IN 1995
AND 1996, THERE WAS A-
A REAL-REAL SENSE
OF OPTIMISM IN THE COUNTY.
IT'S INTERESTING.
WE-WE PUT TOGETHER
A REPORT, UH,
OUR FIRST REPORT FOR THE COUNTY
WAS DONE IN 1996 WHEN WE DID,
UH, AN-AN ANALYSIS OF
THE ECONOMIC VITALITY
OF-OF THE COUNTY,
AND, UH, I WAS GOING OVER
THAT REPORT YESTERDAY,
AS I WAS, UH, ON THE PLANE
COMING OUT HERE.
AND, UH, I REALLY DID GET
THIS FEELING OF,
READING THE-THE-THE-
THE RECOMMENDATIONS FROM
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BOARD
AND OUR ASSESSMENT
OF THE ECONOMY, OF A--
OF A REAL SENSE OF OPTIMISM
IN THE COUNTY.
AND YOU CAN SEE IT SIMPLY
IN THE- IN THE DEMOGRAPHICS,
THAT YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT,
POPULATION GROWTH
WAS STRONGER IN THE COUNTY
THAN IT WAS, UH,
IN THE STATE AS A WHOLE.
AND-AND I DON'T HAVE THE U.S.,
BUT WAY AHEAD OF-OF THE U.S.,
AND THIS WAS JUST
ONE VERY-VERY POSITIVE FACTOR.
BUT LOOK AT AFTER
THE DOT COM BUST, THE WHOLE,
UH, FIRST DECADE OF
THIS CENTURY, AND YOU SEE
THAT THERE WAS VIRTUALLY
NO POPULATION GROWTH.
IT WAS JUST A COMPLETE CHANGE,
A COMPLETE TURNAROUND,
IN TERMS OF THE-THE,
UH, THE ECONOMY.
UH, AND, UH, THAT WAS-
THAT WAS TOUGH.
IT REFLECTED THE DOWNTURN
IN THE HOUSING MARKET.
IT REFLECTED, UH, VERY, VERY
HIGH HOME PRICES EARLIER
IN THE DECADE
AND THE INAFFORDABILITY,
UH-UH-UH, TO LIVE HERE.
BUT LOOK AT THE CHANGE, AGAIN,
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
ONCE AGAIN, SONOMA COUNTY
IS ATTRACTING PEOPLE,
THAT NET MIGRATION
INTO THE COUNTY IS POSITIVE,
THAT THE NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
IS GROWING, AND THAT IS
GENERATING LONG-TERM DEMAND
FOR HOUSING,
LONG-TERM DEMAND-
DEMAND FOR SERVICES
LIKE-LIKE-LIKE HEALTHCARE
AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
AND EDUCATION
AND-AND THE LIKE.
THIS IS A REALLY
POSITIVE FACTOR FOR THE ECONOMY
AND VERY, VERY POSITIVE
IN TERMS OF CREATING DEMAND
FOR, UH, THE HOUSING MARKET.
IF I MOVE ONTO THE NEXT CHART,
UH, THIS REPEATS
THE POPULATION GROWTH RATE
FOR THE COUNTY.
THAT'S THE GREEN BAR.
AND YOU COMPARE THAT WITH
OUR, UH, ESTIMATE OF
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
IN THE COUNTY.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY,
UH, THE WAY YOU,
UH-UH-UH, INTERPRET THIS
ON THE RIGHT HAND AXIS,
IT'S ABOUT 90, RIGHT NOW,
AND THAT MEANS THAT
A HOUSEHOLD EARNING
THE MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
COULD AFFORD TO BUY A HOME
PRICED AT ABOUT 90%
OF THE MEDIAN SALES PRICE
OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES,
RIGHT NOW, GIVEN CERTAIN
ASSUMPTIONS LIKE
A 20% DOWN PAYMENT,
CURRENT MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES,
ASSUMPTIONS FOR INSURANCE,
UH, AND-AND-AND, UH,
NEEDS AND THE LIKE.
AND YOU CAN SEE
THAT IT'S A NEAR RECORD.
AND ACTUALLY, IF I HAD
OUR QUARTERLY DATA FOR 2011
ON THIS CHART, WHICH I DON'T
'CAUSE I'VE, UH,
BECAUSE OF THE LENGTH,
I WANTED TO GO BACK TO 1980'S
ANNUAL DATA, BUT IT'S ACTUALLY--
AFFORDABILITY IS ACTUALLY
AT A RECORD HIGH.
SO, AGAIN,
ONCE THERE'S A PERCEPTION
THAT THE HOUSING MARKET
HAS STABLED, I THINK WE SEE
A PRETTY STRONG TURNAROUND,
UH, IN THE HOUSING MARKET.
BUT THAT-THAT-THAT
CHANGE IN SENTIMENT
AND THE ABILITY
TO ACCESS CREDIT
WILL BE VERY, VERY CRITICAL
IN GETTING THAT, UH, GOING.
SO, OUR FORECAST IS--
I THINK I'M AGREEMENT WITH YOU
IN THAT I'M FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT THE ECONOMY,
AND OUR FORECAST IS, UH,
FAIRLY OPTIMISTIC.
THIS CHART, THE ORANGE BAR
IS THE HISTORICAL
JOB GROWTH RATE,
UH-UH, SINCE, UH, 2000.
UH, THE GREEN--
WHAT-WHAT I'VE DONE HERE,
THIS IS, IN A SENSE,
UH, HOW DO I SAY THIS?
IN-IN THIS
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT,
BEING A ECONOMIC FORECASTER
HAS ITS PERILS.
AND SOME-SOMETIMES
I FEEL THE NEED
TO DEFEND MY-MY-MY FORECASTS.
AND I PUT THIS ON BECAUSE,
UH, I WANTED TO SHOW
THAT FOR 2010,
THE FORECAST WE DID A YEAR AGO
WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE.
I THINK WE KINDA NAILED IT
FOR 2010.
WE HAD A-A-A 2% DECLINE
IN-IN EMPLOYMENT IN 2010,
AND WE WERE FORECASTING
JUST A LITTLE BIT OVER
A-A, UH, A 2%, UH-UH, DECLINE.
SO, WE GOT IT RIGHT.
I WANT YOU TO KNOW THAT.
AND OUR FORECAST IS
FOR A RETURN TO, UH-UH,
JOB GROWTH THIS YEAR.
WE'RE SEEING IT HAPPEN ALREADY
IN STRONGER GROWTH
IN 2010-2011.
UH, THESE ARE
PERCENT CHANGE NUMBERS.
IF WE TAKE THIS IN TERMS OF-
OF JUST JOB COUNTS,
WE'RE LOOKING AT JOB GAINS
IN THE RANGE OF MAYBE,
UH, STARTING OUT
AT ABOUT 3,000 PER YEAR
IN 2011, MAYBE 3,500
NET NEW JOBS IN 2012,
ABOUT 4,000 NET NEW JOBS
IN, UH, UH, 2013.
THAT GETS US ALMOST BACK
TO THE PREVIOUS PEAK
OF EMPLOYMENT-- NOT QUITE.
IT'LL BE MID-DECADE
BEFORE WE'RE BACK,
BUT I THINK IT'S A LITTLE
TOO MUCH TO ASK
FOR ANYTHING MORE.
AND YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE
THAT WE HAVE TRIMMED
OUR FORECAST BACK.
THE GREEN FORECAST--
THE GREEN BARS REPRESENT
WHAT WE WERE FORECASTING
A YEAR AGO.
UH, AND-AND GIVEN, UH,
WHAT WE SEE, UH,
IN THE SLOWDOWN
IN THE ECONOMY TODAY,
WE-WE'RE BEING
A LITTLE MORE, UH,
CAUTIOUS IN OUR OUTLOOK
BUT STILL-
STILL QUITE POSITIVE.
AND I MENTIONED BEFORE,
AND I KEEP HEARING THIS
FROM PEOPLE
THAT I'M TALKING TO,
THAT THE-THE TRAVEL
AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
REALLY SEEMS TO BE, UH,
LEADING THE WAY.
I'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THIS
CAREFULLY BECAUSE THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT INDUSTRY
FOR MANY AREAS AROUND-
AROUND THE COUNTRY,
AND IT-- WHAT IS--
WHAT I FIND REALLY FASCINATING,
IS THAT WHEN USING EMPLOYMENT
ANY WAY AS A MEASURE
OF A TURNAROUND
IN THE TRAVEL
AND-AND TOURISM INDUSTRY--
I USE THE LEISURE
AND HOSPITALITY CATEGORY
FOR EMPLOYMENT--
THE GAINS ARE ACTUALLY
REALLY LIMITED AND LIMITED
TO THE MAJOR NATIONAL,
UH-UH-UH, TOURIST, UH,
CENTERS IN THE COUNTRY.
IF WE LOOK AT, AGAIN,
THIS IS EMPLOYMENT-- THIS,
I'VE INDEXED IT BACK TO
JANUARY TWO-- OF, UH, 2008,
AND, UH, NEW YORK
HAS BEEN VERY STRONG.
ORANGE COUNTY, DISNEYLAND
HAS BEEN VERY STRONG.
ORLANDO, DISNEY WORLD
AND OTHERS, UH, HAS BEEN
VERY STRONG, AS WELL.
BUT, AS I GO AROUND
AND LOOK AT ALL THE OTHER
METROPOLITAN AREAS
AROUND THE COUNTRY,
I DON'T SEE THESE KINDS
OF TURNAROUNDS ANYWHERE ELSE.
AND I THINK FROM, AGAIN,
FROM TALKING TO FOLKS,
AS I TRAVEL AROUND THE COUNTRY,
THAT THERE IS A LOT OF
PENT-UP DEMAND
FOR TRAVEL AND TOURISM.
HOUSEHOLDS ARE FEELING BETTER
ABOUT BEING ABLE
TO SPEND MONEY ON,
UH-UH, ON VACATIONS.
AND THE-THE BIG VACATIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN PUT OFF
DURING THE RECESSION
ARE THE ONES THAT PEOPLE
ARE DOING RIGHT NOW.
IF THE PROMISE WAS MADE
TO THE KIDS THREE YEARS AGO
THAT THEY WERE GONNA DO
DISNEYLAND BUT DECIDED,
OH, WE JUST--
SORRY, WE CAN'T DO IT.
YOU KNOW, JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT OUR FINANCES.
NOW, THE FINANCES
ARE LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER.
PEOPLE ARE TAKING
THOSE BIG VACATIONS.
UH, AND I THINK THIS IS
A VERY, UH, CLEAR PRECURSOR
OF WHAT THE SMALLER MARKETS
ALL AROUND THE COUNTRY WILL SEE,
AS WE GET INTO THIS SUMMER
AND-AND THIS FALL,
THAT WE ARE GONNA SEE A BETTER,
UH, YEAR THIS YEAR.
AND YOU ACTUALLY CAN SEE,
I'VE PUT SONOMA COUNTY
ON THIS CHART, AS WELL,
AND YOU CAN SEE THE UPTAKE
IN EMPLOYMENT IN THE INDUSTRY
HERE IN THE COUNTY.
SO, WHILE IT'S NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG AS IT WAS, UH,
UH-UH, AS IT WAS
IN THESE OTHER MAJOR,
NATIONAL MARKETS,
UH, THINGS ARE, UH,
GETTING BETTER.