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>>DALE: Good afternoon. So what's the projections for the real estate market nationally for
2014.
I'm Dale Snyder with The Snyder Group, a team driven real estate, here at Keller Williams
Realty in Las Vegas Nevada.
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This data is going to be an overview for the national trends in what we're expecting for
2014. If you'd like how this is going to impact the Las Vegas locally, whether it be in the
investor market, the luxury market in Summerlin or Green Valley, or the city in general make
sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel because we'll be giving those videos out to you as
well.
The data that we're going to be over today comes from Keeping Current Matters. Very great
information. And also I want to make sure to point out and this is going to be at the
end of the video. You'll be able to access this, where the resources are coming from.
It's important to know where this information is being gathered from.
So that will be in the description below at the end of the video. Alright, so let's jump
right in.
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Chief economist at Freddie Mac, Frank Nothaft says, "We expect single-family home sales
and housing starts to be at the highest level since 2007 - nationally." Meaning, we're going
to have a record year for housing sales nationally, is the projection by Freddie Mac.
This next slide is fantastic. I really like this year, shows the year-over-year price
changes by state. So you get a good overview of the nation and what the appreciation rates
were. In Nevada, 25.2%. I'm looking at this. We had a higher appreciation rate than any
other state in the country. California was close.
Alright, this next slide is very interesting. It talks about the sustainability of the current
price increases. You'll see the darker blue, purplish color is unsustainable and the darker
blue is sustainable, of which Nevada is included.
And notice the surrounding states, they're saying they're unsustainable. And then the
lighter blue is the undervalued markets. So contrary to what a lot people are saying about
Nevada, the expert analyst are projecting what we've seen in Nevada is a sustainable
price increase.
Next slide shows days on market nationally, you can see, this doesn't encompass the whole
country. You can see Las Vegas average days on market is 75 and the US average is 86 days
on market.
Days on market has increased as we've gone into our normal market here locally and we
project that the average days on market will increase, especially in the higher price points.
Alright, this next slide shows the distressed properties based on a month's supply. This
one's interesting, obviously to me, because we live in Nevada where we still have a lot
of distressed inventory to get through due to the bottleneck based on legislation changes.
You can find many videos we've done about the AB-284 and other laws that have impacted
the foreclosure pace in our state.
You can see a 6-8.9 months supply is what they're saying in Nevada. Only a few other
states on the East Coast that have a higher month's supply. So that's something we'll
discuss in more detail in our localized video.
Alright, year-over-year change in prices. You'll see here that this goes from last June
through September and this just validates what we're seeing locally, as well. The market
is stabilizing and it is nationally as well.
It's a simple supply and demand, right? As inventory goes up, prices start to stabilize.
This is a quote from Zillow's chief economist, "The conditions that led to the robust appreciation
experienced earlier this year, including historically low mortgage interest rates, high affordability,
low inventory and high demand, are waning. In their place, we're beginning to see more
inventory and rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further normalization in the
market going forward."
Bingo! That's exactly what we're seeing. I network with a lot of top agents from around
the country and Canada and where all seeing the same thing happen.
This next slide, you know, we've discussed this many times from previous videos. It's
about a 5-6 months supply of inventory of homes, which puts us in a normal market where
it's not a buyers market or a sellers market.
Right now, nationally, we're at a stabilization period where it's not a sellers market anymore.
Buyers are able to actually to go in and ask for closing cost, and the sellers are not
able to have all these crazy expectations of what the buyers have to do to get their
offer accepted.
Alright, this next slide is fantastic here. I like this one. As we see investors start
to pull out of the market we are seeing that back filled by the millenials and first time
home buyers. Millenials are around, you know, 32-33 years old or younger.
What is it? 1.2 million current households in the United States projected growth of over,
in the next 3 years, of 3.7%. And the number of additional households form 4.8 million.
This is big numbers here and a lot of it is millenials coming into the marketplace.
Okay, next slide here.
Just another quote that I like to share with you from Bill McBride, "Although the consensus
is the Fed will wait until 2014 to start to taper asset purchases, December is still possible."
And to clarify on that a little bit, what's projected is interest rates are going to go
up about a point next year. Just by the government talking about tapering on buying bonds had
interest rates spike earlier this year.
So it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when this is going to be happening next
year.
This is a great graph because it shows the 2013 fixed mortgage rates. As you can see,
we bottomed earlier in the year and rates have gone up drastically. That huge uptick
was when there was just talk about the Fed tapering off on the bond purchasing.
This slide's great here because it shows what the projections are from the analyst. You
can see Fannie Mae, National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac and Mortgage Bankers
Association are all in agreeance that the rates are going to go around 5%. So almost
a full point increase.
Alright, this next slide really should hit home for buyers and sellers as well, if you're
trying to sell your home. The cost in waiting if rates go up 1 point. And this is only on
a $250,000 mortgage. That's a $161 per month in your mortgage payment. So you multiply
that over a 30-year term, that's quite a bit of difference in payment.
Alright, so I hope this information was of value to you. Once again, I just wanted to
give you an overview of what some expert analyst are projecting for 2014. So whether you're
looking at buying, selling, investing, or you're just curious about the market, you
know once again here at The Snyder Group our goal is to get information out to you so you
can make educated decisions on your real estate investments and needs whenever the time arises.
If you'd like to have a more in depth conversation about how this national trend is going to
impact us locally here in Las Vegas, you know, reach out to me. Shoot me a message, I'd love
to have an educated conversation with you about your specific needs.
And remember, we're going to be including more videos talking about what we're projecting
for the local market. So subscribe to the YouTube channel if you haven't already.
This is Dale Snyder with The Snyder Group at Keller Williams Realty, team driven real
estate. I almost forgot. If you like it, "Like" the video, or "Share" it with your friends
and family. Have a fantastic holiday season. And we look forward to the opportunity to
help you with your needs in the year to come.