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Thanks to the Korea Foundation for Advanced studies and President Park In-kook.
As prof. Wu Xinbo talked about policy changes in China,
I extremely agree with him.
It was well-analyzed.
So I will not mention anything more about it.
Except, I'll talk about parts that need to be added.
After North Korea's third nuclear test was held,
definite changes had occurred in the policy toward North Korea.
The change happened in two sides, the action and attitude.
The change of action can be seen through
by China approving the 2094 resolution
during UN Security Council at March 10th.
And this time, an extremely severe resolution was approved.
For these changes, we think that North Korea was affected in some degree.
North Korea, recently, dispatched
Choe Ryong-hae and Kim Kyu-kwan to China as a special envoy.
They wouldn't have acted like this if they didn't felt the pressure.
The second change is the attitude.
As prof. Wu Xinbo said,
China publically criticized North Korea.
This is quite different with the past.
The biggest pressure that North Korea felt
is China discussing their issues with the US and South Korea.
This is really different when China discussed it privately.
This fact gave a huge pressure onto North Korea.
Action and attitude are changed facts.
Then how could we define today's change?
As prof. Wu Xinbo explained, a hasty decision is the least we expect.
It is because China is still changing.
I agree in this point of view
but will still try to define the change of China till this day.
The change of China is 'the alteration of tactics' not 'strategy'.
China has two goals up to now.
One is restricting China's radical and risk taking behavior.
The recent act of China was extremely radical.
China is stating an extreme position.
Personally, North Korea truly threaten the outside world,
especially the US, but they didn’t actually
behave threatfully.
Although North Korea recently surprised the US with video games,
this cannot be defined as a threatening behavior.
North Korea is standing firmly.
North Korea also had isolated communication.
Therefore, China is imposing sanctions and warning against
North Korea's risky behavior especially to extreme ones.
Applying sanctions against North Korea
are the first goal of China.
Second goal is to delay North Korea's nuclear development.
North Korea's nuclear development still lacks in the application aspect.
I think that the State has already drawn the Maginot line in North Korea policy.
The US will not allow North Korea's nuclear development to reach this line.
In other words, the US will not let North Korea to develop intercontinental ballistic
missile or to let them minimize the size of a nuclear weapon.
Still a gap exists between North Korea and the Maginot line.
China is earnestly worrying
about the method to delay North Korea's nuclear development.
Restricting the extreme behavior of North Korea and delaying the nuclear
development are China's two top goals.
The strategy hasn't changed yet.
The strategy and goal of China are still the same.
Which are 'antiwar, local stability, and non-proliferation'.
Antiwar is the first goal.
I agree with prof. Yan Xuetong's opinion.
Second goal is 'local stability'. What does this mean?
It means not accepting changes in regime theory.
Regime is currently in a process of change but China is not accepting it.
Last is 'prohibiting nuclear proliferation'.
China is taking an extreme stand on non-proliferation issue.
However, there is a precondition of 'antiwar' and 'local stability'.
Then, why did China made a political change?
Was this necessary even for a tactical change?
The cause is as in the following.
Firstly, Chinese leaders and foreign policy decision-makers feel uneasy about
North Korean leaders.
Leaders of North Korea are very young.
Some actions are unpredictable.
For example, the North Korean leader has replaced the chief of staff twice.
This is fearful. We cannot keep up with their pace.
Others are brinksmanship game, in foreign progress.
In this field, his father has a wide experience.
We know how far they will push.
Right now, China is worried about North Korea making oversteps.
This is very danger some.
As lot of concerns about inner stances and foreign policy of North Korea are expressed,
China is trying to handle this by sending some warning signals to North Korea.
Secondly, China is holding a grievance against North Korea.
The third nuclear test was held at February 12th.
This day was the lunar third day of the month,
when Chinese bride goes home to meet one's parent.
Because of this reason, China got mad with North Korea.
A change in public opinion is the third cause.
Currently, a huge change occurred in online opinion.
This is an unfavorable public opinion toward North Korea.
Chinese netizens showed great impression
during President Park Geun-hye's visit.
Strangely, however,
young Koreans in Tsinghua University seemed unpleasurable.
Chinese students gave applause but Korean student didn't.
Apparently, people over their 40s only like President Park in Korea
and the young folks did not like her.
It is strange but Chinese netizens like President Park.
They might felt for her elegant figure.
Especially, during Tsinghua University lecture,
as President Park did,
President Park won favor by saying everything in Chinese.
South Korea won points
but North Korea lost points from public opinions.
Public opinion also does important work in China's foreign policy.
The influence is increasing day by day.
It might not have an immediate effect but is very important in the long term.
China's political figures are also aware of Chinese netizens.
They have secretary for checking internet public opinions.
The person directly criticized from netizens, will worry a lot.
The fourth cause is relatively a direct reason.
China is a responsible stakeholder, carrying through on International liability.
That is why China is keeping distance with the unliable North Korea.
Last cause, based on my subjective judgment,
is related with the personality of China's leader.
The new leader tends to be more honest compared to the past leader.
I think this is the cause of China's change in policy.
What will follow is the significance of change.
Although China tried to make a different policy,
only the tactics changed, not the strategy.
However, cooperative relations of Korea-China and China-US relation
about North Korean nuclear issue have progressed a lot.
We need to make good use of this.
We must not be in a hurry and must not have many demands.
We need to make the most of this situation.
Lastly, I'll explain about China's Northeast Asian policy.
For Northeast Asian policy, China is still sticked to the old policy.
Aiming sustainable development for oneself
is the priority in the policy of domestic challenge.
This did not change.
Chinese leaders are making a exact judgment.
If you have seen 'the 18th Communist Party', you will understand.
In 'the 18th Communist Party', there was this writing.
In the original it says that 'The early stage of socialism is China's greatest custom'
meaning that China is still in the early stage of socialism.
Internationally, China is the most developed country.
This is a view that developing itself is the start of every foreign policy.
There are three points of China's Northeast Asian diplomacy.
First is the China-US relations.
If China-US is trying to build 'New Relation between the Powers',
the beginning of it is Asia pacific.
Specifically, it is Northeast Asia.
A stable relation of China-US is the starting point of China's diplomacy.
Second point is China- Russia relation.
A stable relation of China-Russia
will cause a stability of twelve thousand kilometer border in the north of China.
Another point is the new branch, the Korea-China relation.
Relation of Korea-China will hold a sit in China's Northeast Asian diplomacy.
Therefore, making the base of one's development and
maintaining stable relationship with three countries, Korea, US, and Russia
are the two goals of Northeast Asian policy.
Security of Northeast Asia is currently facing two problems.
One is North Korea and the other is Japan.
North Korea, internally, is going through failures of politics.
Obviously, it would be better if North Korea follows the path of reformation opening
as China did but they are not accepting it.
They are rather planning to solve problems by holding nuclear tests,
which is same as walking toward death.
What is the best way to help North Korea?
I think this is the problem that all of us should deeply consider.
North Korea is becoming the biggest obstacle for the future of Northeast Asian security.
And this will be performed consistently over a period of time.
Another problem is Japan.
The status of Japan is collapsing in Northeast Asia and all over the world.
However, they are not ready for accepting the history.
The entire Japan is not prepared.
During a century and a half, Japan successfully achieved industrialization,
and has been enjoying its status.
For its success in industrialization, Japanese culture was treated as upper handed.
This is a kind of nationalism but is not right.
As South Korea and Chinese industries developed,
Japan was not superior any more.
By forming modernization technically,
the distinction with Japan was about a day.
This just was the difference of time and was not impossible.
As South Korea and China fulfilled modernization,
the predominance of Japan disappeared.
So Japan needs to return back to the normal stance in Northeast Asia.
However, Japan was not ready.
It must have been hard for them to accept these changes.
It is a bit hard to express but it is quite similar to climacterium.
These processes are hard to adapt.
Therefore, Northeast Asia is facing two big problems.
One is North Korea and the other is Japan.
One last thing to say is that South Korea is a funny country.
They are not powerful enough but have medium size power.
Professor Zhu Feng always said this.
"Korea is a Star like country"
It quite sounds like a celebrity.
South Korea is making good use of this kind of influence.
Characteristics of South Korea are as followings.
South Korea is actually an Island. A man-made island.
Originally, it was a peninsular state but due to political influences,
it is located off of continent.
Therefore, South Korea is practically a man-made island.
It is also historically special.
Because of these points,
South Korea, internationally, has a plenty of name recognition.
However, islands are generally weak.
Especially the security is extremely weak.
South Korea must maintain a good relationship
with China and US, at the same time.
This is a favorable way for both sides and especially for South Korea.
That's about it. Thank you.