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PEGGY: THE UNIVERSITY OF SAN DIEGO'S TRANSBORDER INSTITUTE'S NEW REPORT FOUND CROSS BORDER
ARMS TRAFFICKING IS WORSE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. JOINING ME WITH DETAILS IS THE LEAD
RESEARCHER ON THE STUDY, ASSIST PT PROFESSOR AT THE JOAN CROCK SCHOOL OF P STUDIES, TOPHER
MCDOUGAL. WHAT WERE SOME OF THE KEY FINDING OF THIS REPORT?
>> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: WE FOUND THAT ABOUT 2.2% OF DEMAND IS TO DEMAND RISING SOUTH OF
THE BORDER, MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THAT TRANSLATES INTO ROUGHLY 250,000 FIRE
ARMS PER YEAR PURCHASE WITH THAT INTENTION. AND PROBABLY AROUND 127ÊMILLION DOLLARS.
>> >>PEGGY: HOW MUCH OF THOSE TRAFFIC OF 250,000 ARE SEIZED BY AUTHORITIES ON THIS SIDE OR
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BORDER? >> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: AT LAST COUNT AROUND
2009 IT WAS ABOUT 37,000. SO ABOUT 5,000 OF THOSE WERE SEIZED BY U.S.
AUTHORITIES, REVENUEING ABOUT 2% OF THE TOTAL. >> >>PEGGY: JUST 2% OF THE GUNS LEGAL TRAFFICKING
OF THE GUNS ARE BEINGÊ >> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: SEIZED BY U.S. AUTHORITIES,
AND THEN ANOTHER 2 AND A HALF PERCENT OR SO ARE BEING SEIZED BY MEXICAN AUTHORITIES.
>> >>PEGGY: SOME OF THE GUN SHOPS HERE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER CAN MAYBE OR ARE PROFITING
FROM THE SMUGGLING? TELL ME ABOUT THAT. >> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: YES, WELL, BECAUSE WE
WERE JUST ESTIMATING DEMAND IN TOTAL, WE CAN'T SAY WHERE THESEÊ WHERE THE PURCHASES ARE
ACTUALLY BEING MADE. WE DON'T HAVE THAT DATA. BUT WHAT WE CAN SAY IS THAT THAT 2.2% DEMAND
REPRESENTS PROBABLY ABOUT 45 TO 47% OF U.S. GUN STORES WHO ARE IN SOME WAY ECONOMICALLY
DEPENDENT UPON THAT. >> >>PEGGY: FOR THE DEMAND, SELLING IT TO
WHOMEVER. THESE ARE LEGITIMATE GUN STORES OR LEGITIMATE RETAILERS HERE IN THE UNITED
STATES. >> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: ABSOLUTELY. THEY HAVE
A FEDERAL FIRE ARMS LICENSE TO RETAIL. >> >>PEGGY: CALIFORNIA IS JUST ONE LEGAL GUN
SHOP FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY. DO YOU THINK THAT THIS INCREASED DEMAND FOR WEAPONS COULD HAVE
SOME LEGITIMATE BASICALLY REASONS NOT JUST FOR THE DRUG CARTELS? COULD IT BE THEY DON'T
HAVE ACCESS, THERE'S ONLY ONE SHOP. THEY HAVE TO GO MAYBE THE NON REGULAR ROUTE.
>> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: ABSOLUTELY. I THINK THAT THERE'S PROBABLY A LARGE PENT
UP DEMAND IN MEXICO SIMPLY FOR PRIVATE SECURITY REASONS.
I'VE GOTTEN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS SOME E MAILS FROM PEOPLE LIVING IN MEXICO SAYING THEY HAVE
BOUGHT ILLEGAL FIRE ARMS THERE, THEY CONTRIBUTE TO THIS DEMAND THEMSELVES SIMPLY BECAUSE AS
WE'VE SEEN AFTER A DECADE LONG DECLINE IN THE HOMICIDE RATE IN MEXICO SINCE 2006, THERE'S
A SPIKEÊ ROUGHLY 120,000 PEOPLE HAVE DIED AS A RESULT OF DRUG VIOLENCE THERE IN THE
PAST FIVE OR SIX YEARS. >> >>PEGGY: PEOPLE MIGHT BE BUYING THESE TO
PROTECT THEIR FAMILIES OR THEMSELVES FROM THE CRIME THAT'S GOING ON THERE.
>> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: ABSOLUTELY. >> >>PEGGY: I CAN'T IMAGINE THIS WAS EASY
DATA TO GET AFTER ALL THESE ARE ILLEGAL OPERATIONS. >> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: WE DON'T HAVE DATA ON
ACTUAL PURPOSES. THE SEGREGATED DATA ON PURCHASES IS PROHIBITED FOR THE ATF TO COLLECT THAT.
WHAT WE DID WAS LOOK AT COUNTY LEVEL STATS PROVIDED BY THE ATF ON GUN STORES, ON THESE
FEDERAL FIRE ARMS LICENSES AND TRIED TO PREDICT THE NUMBER OF SSL'S IN EACH COUNTY AS A FUNCTION
FROM THE DISTANCE OF THE BORDER. WHERE THIS DISTANCE SE EFFECTIVELY A PRICE YOU ARE INTERRING
THROUGH FUEL COSTS AND TIME SPENT GETTING THERE.
>> >>PEGGY: SO LOOKING AT SORT OF THE GEOGRAPHY OF IT. CERTAINLY THERE'S SOME LIMITATIONS
ON THE DATA THAT YOU GOT. I'M SURE BECAUSE OF THIS.
YOUR REPORT LAID OUT SOME POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO THIS SORT OF RISING TREND.
CAN YOU TELL US A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THOSE? >> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: ONE REALLY OBVIOUS ONE
IS TO START A MORE ROBUST KIND OF BACKGROUND CHECK WHERE YOU WOULD BE LOOKING FOR PROFILES.
RIGHT NOW, EVEN IF THE LEGISLATION THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED AT THE FEDERAL
LEVEL IS PASSED AND PURCHASES ARE MADE ILLEGAL, WE HAVE NO WAY OF TELLING WHO IS A STRAW PURCHASER
AND WHO IS IT. TYPICALLY THEY DO NOT HAVE THE TYPES OF BACKGROUNDSÊ
>> >>PEGGY: TELL US WHAT YOU MEAN WHEN YOU SAY STRAW PURCHASES.
>> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: THIS IS SOMEBODY WHO'S HIRED BY SOMEBODY ELSE WHO HAS A CLEAN RECORD,
TO GO INTO A STORE, AND MAKE A PURCHASE ON BEHALF OF THIS OTHER PERSON AND THEN PASS
THE GUNS ALONG TO THEM. THEN THESE GUNS WILL BE TRAFFICKED SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. >> >>PEGGY: IS THERE A WAY TO TRACK THEM,
YOU THINK? >> >>TOPHER MCDOUGAL: I THINK THERE'S PROBABLY
A WAY OF FINDING A PROBABILISTIC MODEL THAT WOULD SAY HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT YOU ARE A
STRAW PURCHASES. I THINK OTHER WAYS WE COULD GET AT THIS PROBLEM WILL JUST BE TO COLLECT
AND DISSEMINATE SEGREGATED DAD DATA ON PURCHASES. >> >>PEGGY: WE ARE OUT OF TIME. I WANT TO
LET FOLKS KNOW THEY CAN SEE THE ENTIRE GUN TRAFFICKING REPORT ON OUR WEBSITE KPBS.ORG.