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allan lichtman is joining me he is distinguished professor of history at
american university he is also the creator of the thirteen keys system for
predicting the result of presidential elections
i think a good place to start professors when did you create this system
and how did you create
well i created a long time ago
back in nineteen eighty one
when i was in nine years old of course
not exact
i would love to tell you know you your audience and i think we would like to
tell students
then i came up with the thirteen keys to the white house by spending years in
musty libraries you know
thousands of hours of contemplation
but if i would tell you that to quote
the late richard mc
x impact would be wrong
i came across the keys totally
by accident
that year in nineteen eighty was one i was at cal tech is a visiting scholar
and i met a man named alleged kailas blah rock
from moscow
who was a clear air member of both the soviet and u_s_ academy of sciences
and the world's leading expert on earthquake prediction
and i told him i did not come out of court history
and he said let's collaborate and i said no we're not
are you know i got to go back to washington d_c_ nobody cares about the
earthquakes and he said no no
at one o'clock breaded earthquakes
he said ever since i went to the united states in nineteen sixty three
as part of the scientific delegation that negotiated
the nuclear test ban treaty i've been a lot in love with politics
i live in the soviet union
predicting elections forget it
it's a prima leader or off with your and but ul about american
presidential
elections and that's how this
and it may seem a little bit
crazy to be combining earthquake prediction
political prediction but in fact it makes
because re rethought electric shins
not as republicans versus democrats liberals versus conservatives
word jimmy carter verses ronald reagan as was nineteen eighty-one but
geophysical terms
as stability buddy
the party holding the white house stays in office
or correct
the party
holding the war i'd house is tossed
of office
we had a theory
the theory was that basically you have stability or upheaval
based upon the strength and performance of the party
holding the white house
uh... big picture of the economy
foreign policy social unrest scandal
the challenging party in the campaign
don't matter
so we looked at every presidential election from eighteen sixty to nineteen
eighty
and we came up with
the thirteen keys
with thirteen key factors true false questions
that could be answered in advance of an election
and that both gave you insight into how elections really work
and can predict the outcome is that it's really simple
don't have to take your shoes off all to use the keys
distributive account
five
that is
the party
holding the lighthouse loses
more than five keys loses six or more keys
six strikes
and
your out
okay middle-aged parishes true false questions
so six false os
and the party in power loses
few within six to party in power winds and we have sent to use this system
to predict the popular vote out com to national system
over every american presidential election since nineteen eighty four
that's seven
elections in a row
know what the system
has that record of advanced predictions right all of us are every bit as are the
questions about that so
there's this system that's been going around that's being discussed from the
university of colorado which claims to have a great track record but a lot of
that great track record was retroactively right in other words their
motto applied retroactively with the knowledge of what took place would have
worked but when i looked at that system your system has a far longer track
record of actually in advance prediction correct me if i'm wrong
your off hundred-person right most people don't make that distinction but
is ab
salute lee critical not that hard although it is hard
to predict elections
we already know the outcome
awful lot harder to predict elections
when you don't know
the standards of their model you can say my model has been correct since eighteen
hundred and sixty co for over a hundred and fifty years
retrospect
that way so that that was a great at dual
big dance predictions
it's only been i wouldn't say only it's been correct since nineteen eighty four
i hate to say it
but the way these guys
talk about their model their frauds
there'd charlette ends
there no better than sellers of cycle the haven't protected those elections
and yet
you know i read
their press release i looked at their website base say
this model has predicted
the results of election since nineteen eighty that's not
for addiction
and as academics they should know better and it's a real shame that
you know my colleagues are perpetrating this kind of a
misleading information you know maybe even the big question though professor
but they have the big question is
applying your system to the upcoming election that's uh... fifty five or so
days away
uh... who's going away
first predicted the outcome of that
two thousand twelve election in january of two thousand
when i found that president obama the candidate of the party in holding the
white house
had already
for
negative heat
six
to count them out so i predicted
two-and-a-half years ago
that all bomb out was going to be re-elected
and i have stood by that prediction ever since in fact
he's gained one more cake
by taking out of some armor bin laden
so we now only has three negative keys it takes six negative keys
account amount focused on my question then becomes
do polls matter do the debates matter do campaigns matter all of these things
that have transpired and what transpired between your initial prediction january
twenty ten
and now can't visit did not none of that is in the keys directly but there's any
of that stuff make a difference
none of that is in the keys directly and none of that really matters
at all as i said
almost all of my predictions have been made before the campaigns even began i
predicted
george w_ bush is reelection and april two thousand and three
that said obviously it's not impossible
that things happen
dirt campaign that can matter
it's conceivable a candidate can emerge as
you know a ronald reagan or franklin roosevelt during the campaign or
that's never happened
uh... a horrific foreign policy disaster
critic are
economy could go down the drain
but those kinds of things don't happen
everybody talks about you know the apple or surprise name me one october surprise
they don't
okay let me ask you about a couple of the specifically so
for example some of the key seem a little bit subjective like for example
uh... affecting
major change in national policy right let's talk about that when it and we'll
talk about health care obama care the affordable care act that's one that you
give to obama has no bomb has that key but there's been this strong
misinformation campaign around obon a care such that their isn't really
overwhelming support nationally four what it did so
by what standard do we judge whether it is a major achievement in other words is
it based on some kind of public polling analysis is it based on what we pay if
there is such a thing as an objective analysis how do you measure that
well it's a very good question
and i have been attacked for
low more than uh... thirty years
for my system
having elements of judgment into and my answer to that is several fold one
the world
is not objective
thickly when you're dealing with human beings
historians have long known that has to be
some degree of judgment i got blasted for decades
by the professional forecasters but about it
that years ago
he suddenly change and they realized but that surely
quote-unquote objective napa ca
mathematical models didn't work
and all the sudden
my idea of judgmental forecasting became the hardest thing in forecasting tight
twice
she noted
the international forecasting some secondly
they all look a lot more subjective when you get to see online on a piece of
paper
here's the key
but when you buy my book
the keys to the white house two thousand twelve addition you'll see number one
every key is very carefully defined
and number two at and
to these questions thirty eight times before
next answer has to be can sister and the definition clearly
it's not weather
it is popular or not popular measured by the polls gospels change
all the time
six months ago it looked like
opa mishap healthcare was much more in popular
that it is today and in fact today's using it
in a positive sense all
that keep images
is have you in a significant way
change policy
from the previous
it ministration and costly really
uh... health care
is not only a change from the previous administration starkly
it's something that presidents have been seeking and failing to do since harry
truman i in the nineteen forties so why all the standards of the keys and
bystanders and previous comparisons that was not a difficult call quite frankly
arezzo round were typical calls them at will you even watch on election day
events as you already know what's going to have it with you then carried that
argued that certain that this is just in the back for obama
beloved other human being right
and human being
ms whenever perfect
proper black
absolutely convinced you know that all always be perfect of course not
equal all humans a fail
amaya actually convinced that this is the best
system available
july for newly believable hold this time
yes
well i russian jump off my roof of a doesn't
seven out of eight wouldn't be terrible
alright distinguished professor of history at american university
professor allan lichtman really great to talk to encourage people to to get the
book and also check out the keys and decide for themselves if they agree with
you on all baby that's really important is the world's only do it yourself
prediction system anyone can answer these questions
all right now i think so much with take a break we'll be back with plenty more
after this