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good morning steven whiteside here with today's additional stock market timing
television for Monday February 3rd
2014 we're coming up to 8 a.m. on the east coast and things are fairly quiet
stock index futures are flat
energies down a little in gold is up a cult couple dollars in the pre-market on
Monday mornings or looking for a quiet open
at 9:30 now with the markets closing down in January
led lower by the dow a lot of people referring to what's called the january
barometer
that States as the S&P 500 goes in January so goes the year
and that work very well in the last century has worked out well in this
century
up probably because of all the said aggressive fed intervention in the
markets this century
i things like this and I find it very interesting I love them
I love seasonality is the market I love anything like that when I make my
decisions based on what the church
are doing not what I expect the church to do
and a sore right now things are holding up fairly well we're starting to get
some
weekly sell signals but the market hasn't started to break down
just yet another thing I was watching if you if you watch her and big picture
video
the star the year now one of the things that I I was referred to is the fact
that margin debt is a ad a major peak
and yes it could keep going in it did in December
but this is the time and place where markets usually turned down in head
lower
and the bull market that we're in right now is been running for a long time in
its gonna have a
take a break at some point and with margin debt
continuing to rise this is the time and place where would look for the market to
rollover let's on move on and take a look at
silver weekly charts I we saw the pics continue to rise last week of course
that is negative for stocks
the Dow and the S&P 500 our own weekly sell signals
as a last Friday's close we're still waiting for the
other indexes which have performed better than the major
Dow and S&P 500 index such as the nasdaq-100 the Russell 2000
in the Zacks micro cap or waiting for those indexes
to generate sell signals and that would happen this Friday if we closed below
last week's low for any of those in taxes now the ex a you is still on a
bicycle no change there
we continue to see bonds move higher in this course that's negative for stocks
US dollar had inside week last week's a fairly quiet
fairly quiet the Japanese yen closed slightly lower
a close above 9803 would give us a new
weekly by signal for the yen and that would be negative for stocks
gold still waiting for a buy signal their 12 6198 daily
weekly close above that this Friday would give us a weekly by signal
still optimistic for gold the pros are still coming back
if we do get a buy signal them
we were expecting a move up to $13.75 that would take us up to the moving
average is that would take us up to the flypaper channel
and that's probably as far as we would expect to go
at this time next up let's take a look at some daily charts and a one of the
things you have to be aware
right now is there's something controlling the market it happen on
Friday its gonna happen today and tomorrow
and that's called the end of month bias in the end of month spices actually
bullish in so when the market is negative
I the bullish bias can help prop the market up even if the market closes
lower
it still poppin the market up and the reason that there's a bullish bias
to the market at the end of the month in the start of a new month is a lot of
automatic money
comes into the market and that money can come from pension funds and it also
comes from personal retirement accounts
and so if you've ever had a deduction taking off your paycheck at the end of
the month
for pension or retirement account that money
flows automatically into the stock market right at the end of the month
in the start homes the new month the first couple of days
and so even if the market is negative there's that hand underneath
new money flowing into the market to hold it up and so I'm not expecting a
major breakdown in the market on Monday or Tuesday
so if we are expecting a positive bias for the first couple days in the week
then we're not expecting the pics to be able to break out above
last week's highs if you want to see the market turned higher we needed to start
raining down below 1485
where do we start last week well 1875 course was a mathematical target
it was also the bottom oven open gap and so we've got a little gap there
African take out that gap then 2031 in 2188 would be our next hearses
to the upside and of course if we start doing that day and now we're sure dove
taking out last week's lows
now something that's needed for the stock market is money continues to go
back into the bond market
and that is certainly a safety trading and
that safety trade continues then we're not expecting the stock market to be
able to go
much higher now money went back into the US dollar last Thursday and Friday were
back up that previous resistance
that we've seen since November if we can take out those highs then move up to the
Sept highs up to
to 82-81 would be our next target
look at the S&P 500 really you know and
so on Friday we could take out Thursday's high
that would be the first sign something positive is happening this week
we need a close above 18 1678
that level is going to continue to move lower throughout the week
the pattern that we're looking at here we are looking which compares flag and
that is bearish market signal
Indus or expected use break out below the bottom of that flag
and dad the next yr to the downside is 1750
if we take that out and 17 1875 would be a great place to stop
and that would be at the September highs
and after those people watching moving averages last week and traded between
the
the fifty in the 100 day moving average funny supported 208
if we take that out the two days continue to move higher
towards the 17 1875 level
now some the other indexes that for performing much better than the Dow and
the S&P 500
such as the nasdaq-100 they're holding the 50-day moving average is
clustering around them if we can take our last week's low then
you'd expect to find support at the 200-day and of course if that doesn't
hold a move down to the 200-day
now bank stocks closed at their low of the week and
course if the bank stocks take our last week's lows that would
certainly be negative for the overall stock market some sectors
such as energy took out last week's lows on Friday
so that's not a good sign going into the ended the week
and catch people watch the chip sector are
fairly optimistic at the moment we have been taken out those lows
from the start of the week and we're still on a cell signal here but
trading up through the chain also trading in the channel is a neutral zone
so even though we're on a cell signal that's neutral and another thing that's
neutral
or gold stocks they came down to the lower channel in on Friday between
did not close they're so close below last Friday's low
would give us a new cell signal on Monday
next up let's take a look at to commodity ETF so we saw copper continue
to move lower on Friday
a little bit applying in gold still haven't given up hope on goal just yet
the pros are still in control if gold going to turn around we're certainly
getting these
need to see platinum turn around first and
that hasn't happened just yet close lower on Friday but
certainly of the lows in the day so we're still a drag on
the precious metals complex no change there
looking at energy and we saw bearish reversal on
Thursday for crude oil moved up to the top to the open gap fill the open gap in
reversed
we're still trading above the upper channel line right now so not a major
concern on Monday
I look a gasoline we generated to sell signal on Friday
in lookin natural gas traded back into the channel on Friday closed above it
we still need a close below 2277 to generate a sell signal
on Monday that's a finish of this morning's presentation taking a look at
some the 60-minute charts are looking at the pics you can see
we've got an really nice range here we've got
last week's highs last week's lows a break at the range should be the first
sign that something
a new is happening the first positive sign for the market on monday is going
to be an early close below
1722 on the BX look at the S&P 500 was still below the flypaper channel that
flypaper channels can act as resistance
if we start to head up from here also those moving averages you can see
where we've got the 50 in you know that the 100 the 200 are moving average was
off to get over the fifty
but all those are gonna present resistance on the way up
last week's range 17 and ninety-eight on the upside
1717 change in the dam sites or twenty-eight the point spread
and we're right in the middle that at the moment the for senate strange
the stock market on monday is going to be an early close above 17
+91 28 and we're nowhere near that
in the pre-market on Monday okay folks that's all for Monday morning
I'll be back tomorrow morning to look at the Canadian stock market and will be
back on Wednesday morning to look at the US stock market
have a great day and talk to you again soon
well
do
the world