Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
>> Interviewer: This webinar runs about 35 minutes. Hello and welcome to the Blood Horse’s
informational session on the TrueNicks system. Renowned pedigree analyst Alan Porter has
prepared a short overview of this system and then he and TrueNicks co-founder Byron Rogers
will answer readers questions about the nicking program. As you watch the presentation you
may submit questions using the submission box below the video screen. Follow along as
Byron and Alan's responses are posted in the text box. Now I will turn this over to Alan
Porter, Alan. >> Alan: Hi, I'm Alan Porter. Welcome to TrueNicks,
the most sophisticated powerful and accurate nicking program ever devised. TrueNicks is
a program that evaluates a pedigree in terms of affinity between the siren broodmare sire
or sire line and mare sire line. The output is both a raw number and a letter grade score,
but that's not all. The TrueNicks program also provides a custom report with multiple
data fields. TrueNicks has been developed by a partnership between the Bloodhorse Publications,
publisher of the Bloodhorse Magazine, the official publication of thoroughbred owners
and breeders association; and Pedigree Research LLC. A Thoroughbred consultancy headed by
Byron Rogers and Allen Porter. Byron Rogers has been stallion nomination
and blood stock manager at Arrowfield Stud in Australia, and director of the stallion
division at Taylor Made Farm in Kentucky. He's now national sales manager of William
Inglis and Son, Australia's leading thoroughbred auctioneers. In addition, Byron has been involved
in the mating plans for numerous top class runners. For me, Alan Porter, TrueNicks represents
the realization of something I have wanted to achieve since entering the field of pedigree
research well over 30 years ago. TrueNicks is powered by data from the Jockey
Club information systems. TrueNicks is the only thoroughbred nicking program to have
access to what what is certainly the largest and most current thoroughbred database in
the world. As a result TrueNicks is the only thoroughbred nicking program that's able to
take into account all foals and all starches bred on a cross and the only one with overnight
updating. TrueNicks’ association with the Bloodhorse
and Jockey Club means TrueNicks is very much the industry's nicking system. While we keep
talking about nicks, so what are nicks? Well throughout the history of the thoroughbred,
breeders have noticed that some stallions tend to sire particularly good offspring when
mated to daughters of another stallion and that the daughters of some stallions produce
good offspring when bred to a specific sire or his sons. The best nicks occur when the
sire and broodmares both improve each other. That happened with two of the greatest horses
in American racing history, Man o' War and Secretariat. Both are products of famous nicks,
Man o' War representing the cross of Fairplay and Mares by Rock Sand, and Secretariat representing
the cross of Bold Ruler over mares by Princequillo. In the development of TrueNicks studies of
the pedigrees of over 100,000 horses confirmed the affinity between the sire and the broodmare
sire or the sire line and the broodmare sire line remains an important predictor of racing
success. The TrueNicks rating is achieved by studying real opportunity. First it takes
the sire or sire line and compares how that sire or sire line has done with mares of the
selected broodmares or broodmare sire line compared with all other mares. That results
in the sire improvement index, otherwise known as the SII. Then it looks to the mares bred
to a sire or sireline and compares the success of those mares when bred to that sire or sire
line with the success of those mares when bred to all other sires. This results in the
broodmare sire improvement index, or BSII. The combination of the SII and the BSII results
in the TrueNicks rating, which is then converted to a letter score.
The TrueNicks Program utilizes a complex algorithm to ensure that the calculation is based on
the minimum possible number of generations from the sire and broodmare sire.
Now to get a practical example of how the TrueNicks system works. If we consider AP
Indy we find that he achieves a high sire improvement index with heirs by Deputy Minister.
As a broodmare sire Deputy Minister achieves a high broodmare sire improvement index when
his daughters are bred to AP Indy. The multiplication of the sire improvement index and broodmare
sire improvement index results in the TrueNicks rating. An example of this process is the
mating between AP Indy and the Deputy Minister mare Better than Honor that resulted in a
2004 filly named Rags to Riches. Let's take a look at her TrueNicks report.
With a TrueNicks rating of 5.83, Rags to Riches, the champion three year old filly of 2007
and heroine of the Belmont stakes is an A-plus rated horse.
Now using Rags to Riches as an example, let's take a closer look at the TrueNicks report.
At the top left of the page we find the name of the horse. Underneath that comes the cross
on which the rating is based, in this case the AP Indy / Deputy Minister cross. Below
that is the name of the breeder. At the top right hand side of the page is the TrueNicks
letter grade and the variant TrueNicks rating. Also at the top right of the page, we find
the time and date stamp, a permanent reference to when this pedigree was run. The page also
features a five cross pedigree. The TrueNicks calculation does not analyze
inbreeding or line-breeding. But realizing these are important factors for many breeders,
the TrueNicks page highlights in color any ancestor that appears more than once. Each
different ancestor is shown in a different color. Shifting to the lower half of the TrueNicks
report, the feature which is unique to TrueNicks, a list of the five best runners bred on the
cross along with the level of their best win in a group, graded stakes, or listed race.
This is accompanied by the name of the sire and the broodmare sire of the horse. With
the Jockey Club Database constantly being updated new stakes will appear on this list
within 24-hours of the race. At the bottom of the page on the left hand side you will
find the Roman Dosage Profile along with the dosage index and center of distribution.
We've mentioned the TrueNicks rating or variant and the letter grade. Now it's time to explain
them in detail. To assist in better understanding of TrueNicks rating, which is the product
of combining the sire and broodmare sire improvement index, the TrueNicks raw score is converted
to a letter grade, from A to D and F, as in the academic system. This conversion to a
letter grade was carefully calibrated on a test group of over 100,000 horses and took
due consideration of the percentage of stakes winners and percent of the overall percent
of the population that fell into each grade. For example, only around ten percent of the
entire population are rated A double plus but 37 percent of the stakes winners achieve
that rating. Horses rated B or better represent around a third of the entire population, yet
more than three quarters of stakes winners rate B or better. The group of horses rated
C, that's average, has a stakes winner production percentage that is virtually identical to
the percentage of the population that it represents as a whole. Nearly half of all thoroughbreds
are on the lower end of the scale, rated C or below, yet they provide only eight percent
of all stakes winners. The TrueNicks rating is designed to educate
a breeder or buyer and is therefore something that should be intelligently interpreted rather
than followed blindly. Studies of over 100,000 horses show that the nick rating is a very
strong indicator of potential success, but there are numerous other factors that should
be considered. For example, the TrueNicks rating does not take into account the class
of the sire or the dam. Although the class aspect of a pedigree is
a very important fact, in general breeders or buyers are usually comparing like with
like: stallions in a similar price range, or eunuchs in a same price range in a sale,
for example. Obviously it is also extremely important to consider the confirmation of
a potential purchase or the physical suitability of the sire for the mare. The list of the
best horses bred on a cross also yield very valuable information for intelligent interpretation.
Take for example, the cross of Dynaformer over mares by Mr. Prospector and his Sons,
this cross only earns a C TrueNicks rating; however, when we look at the best winners
bred on the cross we can see Dynaformer sired four graded winners and three grade one winners
mares by Mr. Prospect and his Sons. So while Dynaformer ‘s percentage of stakes winner's
on the cross is only a little better than Opportunity. When the crosses worked, they
worked very well, so it could still be worth considering.
On occasion, instead of a letter grade and a variant, the letter box will show no rating.
This means that even after going back three generations for the sire line and three generations
of the broodmare sire line, there are insufficient stakes winners or starches to achieve a valid
rating. To achieve a TrueNicks rating the cross must have had either 15 starters or
two stakes winners out of different mares. Unlike some nicking programs TrueNicks does
not give a rating on the basis of only one stakes winner.
Having explained what TrueNicks is and what it does, we should now answer the questions:
Where do I find TrueNicks? and How do I use TrueNicks? TrueNicks can be found on the TrueNicks
website at www.TrueNicks.com. The website is not only a source for TrueNicks ratings,
but also contains a blog that has valuable pedigree and breeding related updates, analysis,
and insight. TrueNicks is also found on the Bloodhorse stallion register online where
there is a link to the TrueNicks homepage. TrueNicks links to Subscribing Stallions can
also be found in the stallion register online searches and on the individual stallion, stallion
pages. Finally, they're also on equine line, the official source of reports from the Jockey
Club. Now let's consider who can benefit from TrueNicks
and what are it's applications. For broodmare owners the TrueNicks hypothetical mating report
complimentary for Subscribing Stallions is a very valuable tool. With conclusive evidence
of the correlation between nick ratings and performance, the TrueNick rating can be used
to give an increased chance of racetrack success. It's also well known that buyers are attracted
to horses bred on proven crosses, so breeding on patterns that give TrueNick ratings also
gives the opportunity of increased commercial desirability.
For buyers at auction, running a named full report, or a hypothetical mating for an unnamed
foal will provide a strong indication of the individual stakes potential relative to other
horses at the same commercial level. In both instances, in addition to the rating,
studying the best winners bred can give an indication the type of horse one might expect
form the mating. Or the dosage analysis can give more information on potential aptitude.
The five generation pedigree with highlighted inbreeding and the inbreeding summary makes
potentially valuable inbreeding and line-breeding patterns easy to detect.
There are also many benefits for stallion managers who subscribe their stallions to
the TrueNicks program. Subscribing a stallion to TrueNicks not only allows unlimited in
house use but also provides links from the stallions home site, from the bloodhorse register
online, and the TrueNicks site. All allowing broodmare owners to run complementary reports.
The ability to run complimentary reports for their mares is likely to attract interest
from breeders. TrueNicks page makes it easy for them to run reports on other subscribing
stallions at the same farm. In addition to generating interest in a stallion, the TrueNicks
program considerably increases the chance of breeders booking mares that compliment
a sire, increasing the chances of stud success and equally important it helps avoid crosses
that are proven failures. We're happy to announce that the next few
monts will see some important announcements regarding the TrueNicks product line. The
rating has already begun to appear in both the pre and post sale Bloodhorse Data Digest,
and will soon be incorporated into other Bloodhorse products. These include the stakes results
sales in both the Bloodhorse Magazine and Bloodhorse Now Online, as well as the Auction
Edge Premier Edition. In addition, products for pedigree professionals, automated mated
reports, stallion nicking reports, and other custom tools for stallion farms and managers
are currently in development. >> Interviewer: Over the past week, several
customers have emailed with questions about how the TrueNicks works and who benefits from
the system. Let's join TrueNicks co-founders Alan Porter and Byron Rogers as they respond
to each question. Allen comes to us from the studio and Byron is connected by phone from
Australia. Alan, let's start with you. What is the difference between TrueNicks and other
nicking programs? >> Alan: TrueNicks uses the Jockey Club database
to compare how a sire or sire line has done when crossed over a broodmare sire or broodmare
sire line. It takes the percentage of stakes winners and then compares them with how well
that sire or sire line has done when crossed with all of the mares. It then takes only
the mares bred to the sire or the sire line and looks at how they have done when bred
to all other stallions. By comparing and combining those two numbers, TrueNicks gives a rating
that is based on true opportunity. Another unique aspect of TrueNicks is that the Jockey
Club database is updated daily. This means that the breeders and buyers can act in confidence
knowing that they will always be working with the newest possible information.
>> Interviewer: Another reader is wondering if they can call in with their credit card
to purchase reports. >> Alan: There's not a call-in facility for
TrueNicks, but you can use your credit card to purchase TrueNicks. You can do this by
going to the TrueNicks site or by going to the Jockey Club site, from there you will
be given the opportunity to purchase a TrueNick online, using a credit card.
>> Interviewer: Now we understand that some of the stallions on the list are sponsored,
where could we find that list? >> Alan: You can find which stallions have
free reports by going to the TrueNicks website, there the stallions that have subscribed for
free reports are sorted alphabetically and they're also sorted by farm. TrueNicks subscribed
stallions can also be found on the Bloodhorse Stallion Register Online. The TrueNicks logo
appears on the individual stallion page and also alongside any subscribing stallions name
in a list of horses sorted by region or stud fee. You just click on the logo and you're
able to run a complimentary TrueNicks report for any mare with that stallion. In addition,
many farms that subscribe to TrueNicks have the TrueNicks logo on their website.
>> Interviewer: Now here is a reader that's a stallion owner and has a small advertising
budget. What would they get out of subscribing their stallions?
>> Alan: Well the ability of breeders to run a complimentary mating with a given stallion
is likely to give considerable additional interest in that horse. Breeders are far more
likely to have confidence in breeding to a stallion when they have a positive indication
that the mating will work and is a strong one. In addition, the TrueNicks makes it easy
for a breeder to consider all the stallions of a farm, so it encourages them to look at
potential mates with other stallions there. Of course, the TrueNicks program gives unlimited
access to run reports with a chosen mare and subscribing stallion and it makes that an
invaluable tool for the farm to use in house. The ability of breeders to obtain TrueNick's
reports for a stallion also greatly increases the chances of that stallion receiving mares
likely to compliment him on pedigree, and that is a highly important factor for potential
sire success. TrueNicks is also developing a number of important
reporting tools that will inform stallion owners when a nick is run, the identity of
the mare, and the resulting output. Breeders will also be able to register to put direct
email contact with the subscribing farm. TrueNicks is also in the process of developing a number
of exciting stallion management aids. These will only be available for subscribing stallions.
>> Interviewer: What benefit do breeders get from this system versus another system?
>> Alan: I'm going to pass that question to Byron Rogers.
>> Byron: It's a very big benefit because it does provide reality based information.
The key probably and I think Alan will agree on this, Truenicks as a pedigree rating system
is a very good system it works well, but it is not the only key available to breeders
when they are considering matings. Paper doesn't run very fast. The reality is, this is one
part of the pedigree we're looking at and it is a great place to start and there is
a strong correlation between A plus and B-rated horses going on to stakes success but it is
not the only thing. Conformation and aptitude all need to be considered and weighted appropriately.
From the viewpoint of a breeder and an owner this system is a great starting point and
a great tool to use to refine selection or if you've got a mare just to look at the stallions,
that really do suit the mare from the start. >> Interviewer: Can breeders sign up for unlimited
reports running any mare against any stallions they might want?
>> Alan: There's no limit to the number of complimentary reports that be run for subscribing
stallions. For named horses or for hypothetical foals by stallions that aren't subscribing,
TrueNicks can be obtained for a $20 dollar charge.
>> Interviewer: What is the highest variant score possible, and does that mean that the
foal is hundreds of times more likely to be a stakes winner?
>> Alan: The highest variant I can remember seeing was around the 500's, but that's not
statistical reflection of likelihood of that horse becoming a stakes winner. What needs
to be understood is that the TrueNicks rating is not a linear rating. Horses that are below
average can score anywhere from zero to just under one, but an above average horse can
be scored from anywhere between one and the high hundreds. One of the reasons we introduced
the letter grade was to make this easier to understand. What we find is an excellent horse
with a rating of A double plus can be rated anywhere from 6.5 upwards.
>> Interviewer: So what do these numbers mean? >> Alan: We'll let Byron Rogers answer that
question. >> Byron: From a practical standpoint, if
I was just looking at it in simple terms and thinking "What am I trying to achieve?" Anything
with a B-plus or better is about where you want to start to think, this is a solid mating.
>> Interviewer: One of our readers notices that they've seen the green logo on the Stallion
Register webpages, what does that signify? >> Alan: The TrueNicks logo on a stallions
page, signifies that stallion as a subscriber to TrueNicks and you can receive complimentary
reports to that stallion with any mare by clicking on the logo.
>> Interviewer: Alan, here's an interesting situation, we have a reader who has a mare
in foal, they ran a TrueNicks report and the report shows that the mare will be a D cross,
but they also ran reports on the mare and the stallion and they got an A plus rating.
So how can the foal be so bad? >> Alan: Because TrueNicks reflects the affinity
between the sire and the dam or the sire line and the broodmare sire line, it's possible
for both the sire and the mare to have an excellent nick but not have an affinity for
each other. An example might be the mating that's going to happen now between Giant's
Causeway and Rags to Riches. Giant's Causeway is an A double plus nick rated horse, Rags
to Riches is an A plus nick rated horse, but the foal only has a nick rating of C. That's
because Giant's Causeway sire, Storm Cat, has two stakes winners for only seven foals
out of mares by Rags to Riches sire, AP Indy, but there have been 42 starters by Storm Cat's
sons and AP Indy mares and only one stakes winner. So although their parents are very
highly rated, the nick doesn't have such a high rating.
>> Interviewer: Alan, can you explain the flexibility of nick ratings a little bit?
Perhaps explaining how the grade might change if the horse goes out and wins a stakes race.
>> Alan: The TrueNicks program is created and constructed so that it quickly updates
and reflects recent stakes winners. That means that breeders and buyers can act in confidence
knowing that always have the most recent available data. It sometimes happens that a stakes win
will change a rating. This often happens when there's been little opportunity for the mating
so far; however, TrueNicks is also carefully constructed so that once a high rating is
established, it is very difficult, and takes a long time for that rating to change negatively.
>> Interviewer: Now the logo for TrueNicks says "Do More Than Just Hope For The Best"
what does that mean? >> Alan: There is an old saying "Breed to
the best and hope for the best" we hope that using TrueNicks, an intelligent application
of the tools available, breeders can do a lot more than just hope for the best.
>> Interviewer: Alan, we understand that you do pedigree recommendations for a lot of the
major breeders. Do the TrueNicks numbers factor in to your evaluations.
>> Alan: Firstly, I would like to say that I have always considered nicks and sire line
affinities when planning matings. However, until the advent TrueNicks there's been no
solid measurable way of knowing any certainty how strong a nick is. It's only when you have
all the data that you are able to conclusively measure that. This was one of my main motivations
behind creating TrueNicks. I've been using the test version of TrueNicks for several
months now and have found it an invaluable tool. It's provided some real surprises. However,
while you think you know nicks, it isn't until you fget a solid reflection with all the data
available, you never really know the strength of an affinity and the opportunity it's had.
>> Interviewer: As an example, would an unproven son of AP Indy really be as good as his sire,
and if not then why would they have the same ranking with the same mare?
>> Alan: Well firstly, we should say that a son of AP Indy and AP Indy himself are probably
not going to have the same ranking. If we look to the mare by an unproven son of AP
Indy, say Bernardini, we would find that that ranking included AP Indy and his sons so the
rating would be different from AP Indy. Let's consider for the moment a stallion that doesn't
have an sons that have had runners, then yes, the son will have a similar rating to the
sire. However, it doesn't mean that the son would be just as good or better than it's
sire. Take for example, a son of AP Indy standing inexpensively in a regional market and compare
it to AP Indy, I think that everybody would agree that they would rather breed their horse
to AP Indy if it was affordable and if the mare would get in. However, in a case where
a sire is by a stallion who does not have any other sire sons, the rating for a sire's
horse might not be the same. At this stage it is important to understand what TrueNicks
is and what it isn't, TrueNicks is the most powerful, sophisticated, and accurate nicking
program yet created. Studies of over 100,000 horses indicate that nicks as calculated by
TrueNicks are a strong indicator of future success. What TrueNicks does particularly
well is to compare like with like, between similar stallions in a price range for matings,
or yearlings with a similar commercial value, for example. Do you have any thoughts on that
Byron? >> Byron: Yeah, that's the mathematics behind
it and it's an important part of it but there was also a series of logic steps which we
had to use, a series of cutoffs and requirements for a calculation to be made. We had to deal
with unique situations like the stallions having hyper-books. In these days where a
young stallion will serve a big book of mares these ratings can get creative or calculated
very quickly on the young stallion when the opportunity for their foals to actually perform
on the racetrack hasn't quite been fulfilled. So basically these young sires that are serving
these big books of mares tend to generate their own data sets very quickly without that
data set having, the foal opportunity to perform. There's a lot of logic steps in between to
actually come up with some fair ways of dealing with unique situations.
>> Alan: Thank you Byron, that's a very good point.
>> Interviewer: Alan, do all horses go through the same calculation or are some assigned
A s because of their performance. >> Alan: No horse or hypothetical mating gets
a rating without going through the calculation process. That basic process is the same for
all horses. The only thing that differs is how many generations one has to go back to
achieve a rating. The TrueNicks program is carefully designed to ensure that we go back
a minimum number of generations from a sire to achieve a rating.
>> Interviewer: Now we know that mares are half the pedigree, if TrueNicks doesn't take
the female family into account how is the system useful?
>> Alan: The quality of the female line is obviously an important one, both in reproduction
and commercial value. However, in terms in planning a mating or evaluating stock, studies
have shown that there is a higher correlation between the nick rating the affinity between
the sire and the broodmare sire line than there is between the sire line and the family.
>> Interviewer: Alan, would you tell us a little bit about some of the best nicks in
history? >> Alan: The importance of nicks has been
well known since the early days of the thoroughbred. Even back in the late 1700s the nick between
Eclipse and mares by Herod was a known one. Since then there have been nicks that have
basically framed and created the breed. Hermit with Stockwell, Bend Or with Macaroni, the
Phalaris Chaucer nick. Most American stallions trace back to a horse bred on the Phalaris
Chaucer nick. Now two of the most important horses in American racing history, Man o'
War and Secretariat, are products of famous nicks. Man o' War was the product of the Fair
Play/Rock Sand nick, Secretariat who incidentally is an A plus nick on TrueNicks, he was a product
of the Bold Ruler/Princequillo nick. >> Interviewer: Are they any stallions that
nick particularly well with all mares? >> Alan: There are stallions out there that
nick with a wider proportion of the broodmare population some stallions work with more different
broodmare sires and more different broodmare sire lines than others. However, we find that
nearly all stallions have specific reference and specific dislikes. Even a stallion like
Wild Again who had stakes winners out of more than 60 different broodmare sires cross less
well with some sire lines. >> Interviewer: What should I consider along
with the TrueNicks report when I choose a sire for my mare?
>> Alan: In addition to the TrueNicks report, there are several factors one should consider
before planning a mating. One has to consider temperament of the sire, aptitude the mating
has, the physical suitability, and from a pedigree standpoint one should also consider
any interesting inbreeding or line breeding factors. For commercial breeders you also
have to consider the value of the stallion and what commercial appeal the offspring of
that stallion is likely to have. >> Interviewer: Alan, one of our readers would
like to know whether everyone at TrueNicks has an accent?
>> Alan: The quick answer is no, only the Americans. Seriously however, Byron Rogers
is an Australian. He's worked in the racing industry in Australia, Asia, Europe, and in
North America. Obviously, I'm English, I've worked in the industry in both England and
North America. I've been involved in the matings that have produced champions or classic winners
in twelve countries. Combine this with the reservoir of experience available at the Jockey
Club and the Bloodhorse and it's clear that those involved in TrueNicks have had a tremendous
experience of the industry on a worldwide level.
>> Interviewer: Is there anywhere I can see TrueNicks ratings for real horses so I can
see for myself how it works? >> Alan: The TrueNicks rating has already
begun to appear in the Bloodhorse Data Digest. It also appears in the blog at TrueNicks and
very soon we'll be added to the state shells in the Bloodhorse magazine. Also, in the Bloodhorse
Now Online and premium editions of the auction edge.
>> Interviewer: Some other programs don't include state bred stakes into their calculations,
if you're a breeder standing a stallion outside of Kentucky, will TrueNicks include those
stakes? >> Alan: Unlike other programs, TrueNicks
does include state bred and restricted stakes winners in it's results. The TrueNicks program
was carefully designed so we can include these horses without damaging the integrity of the
results. This makes the TrueNicks program particularly valuable for stallions standing
in a regional market. >> Interviewer: I'm afraid that's all the
time we have for right now. Alan, Byron, thank you for being here today. To our viewers,
if you have any questions that weren't covered in this presentation please send them by email
to admin@TrueNicks.com or use the question submission form at the bottom of your screen.
Alan and Byron will address additional questions over the next few days within their post on
the TrueNicks blog located at www.TrueNicks.com. Thank you for joining us and we hope you leave
with a better understanding of the value of pedigree nicking and the TrueNick system.