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Video conference Moscow-Tbilisi: Confederation of Georgia and Azerbaijan, challenges and capacities.
First vice-President of the Centre for Modeling for Strategic Development, Gregory Trofimchuk:
We are here to discuss a quite interesting matter on the Georgia and Azerbaijan Confederation.
We expect every participant of the discussion to explain what the Confederation of Georgia and Azerbaijan is.
Is it propaganda, provocation, utopia or an interesting format which we as experts should analyze and give suitable recommendations for?
Furthermore, I suppose we should discuss the reasons for forming this confederation.
I consider that Georgia's point of view is understandable; it has a lot of sense. We will discuss some of them.
Georgia lives in a modern world and is aware of current events, for example, in the EU.
Yesterday, there were many headlines "France is on fire".
We know what is happening in Greece, Spain, not to mention such countries in Eastern Europe like Bulgaria and Rumania.
The population of Georgia as well as of other countries of the former Soviet Union area wants to know, where we are moving and where we are encouraged to move.
Thus, I think the authority of Georgia acts quite pragmatically; it searches for alternative directions for development in Caucasus and tries officially to secure unions which do not relate to Europe.
Does West influence on forming of Confederation? This issue is discussed in media.
I can say that, unions formed with insistence of West in the former Soviet Union territory, for example, GUAM, the Eastern Partnership, didn't act in concert.
That is why, I consider any reasonable authority of any former Soviet Union republic analyzes this background and would not be there thrice.
In the conclusion, I would like to emphasize that Georgia as a wise country should asset this situation from the strategic point of view.
Probably, it should call for some extrasensory experts to raise ghosts of the dead of the late 18th century, when they united with Russia for some reasons, or it would be better to say searched for ways to preserve this great nation.
Deputy Head of Advisory council for national affairs of Ministry of regional development of the Russian Federation, representative of the Azerbaijani Society, Soun Sadykov:
We can see that 20 years later the CIS is still not successful.
The reason is that the CIS was formed in a very short term without necessary preparations.
Many economic and political problems, appeared during the rule of Michael Gorbachev were not solved.
People who formed the CIS had no idea how to solve these problems.
The idea proposed by Michael Saakashvili is not dangerous; there is no sense to talk about political problems.
He probably wants to see economic development of Azerbaijan and Georgia and South Caucasus generally.
Recently I have visited Georgia, Batumy.
I consider tomorrow is with Batumy, even Monaco will stand down in favour of Batumy, because it is developing in a speed way.
However, there is lack for investors, who left in 2008 after the war between Russia and Georgia had broken out.
Even though, little by little they are coming back.
Russian businessmen are glad to run serious business in Georgia, as well as Azerbaijani and Armenian businessmen.
Georgia is interesting for Azerbaijan, because it is an easy way to the Black sea which means an easy way to Europe and the world.
A couple of years later bad relations between Russia and Georgia will come to an end, people will forget problems of 2008, and then Russia probably should join this union.
Director of Caucasus Media Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan:
As to real prospects of forming Confederation, there is no any real prospect of Confederation between Georgia and Azerbaijan.
There are two reasons for it. First of all, I don't know any acting confederation in this world.
Secondly, I must say about relationships between Georgia and Azerbaijan.
If Georgia and Azerbaijan form Confederation, Georgia will play a part of a small brother, since Azerbaijan has more natural resources, better human resources, larger population and territory.
Chairman of Moscow Georgian community, Levan Posvianidze:
In this situation I ask myself, is it reasonable or not?
If it is reasonable and profitable, this union has prospects.
If it is not, then there is no any prospect.
Joined territory without customs, where it will be easy to invest money from the economic point of view is reasonable.
As Soun Sadykov said, attraction of both countries could be promoted by generation of mutual and foreign investments.
The fact that it was Georgia that proposed this idea is quite logical, because Georgia is interested in further development.
It is well known that Azerbaijan has strong economy, it is a rich country.
What's wrong with the fact that Georgia tries to use help of an assured neighbour to develop its own economy. I think it is very logical and reasonable.
If South Caucasus has stronger economy entity or the economic situation becomes better, it will be profitable as for West as well as for East, China, and Japan.
Today we have a perfect example of the European Union.
I consider founders of the EU didn't suppose that 50-100 years later it would lead to such a great breakthrough in history of humanity.
In the conclusion I would like to say, you will never know what tomorrow will be. However, I believe this union to be interesting for all of our countries.
First vice-President of the Centre for Modeling for Strategic Development, Gregory Trofimchuk:
To conclude with, I think at least we should pay attention to processes taking place in our countries.
As to the main question concerning Russia, I consider that this time Russia not withstanding with the form of this Confederation shouldn't judge it one-sided.
We have to put off mutual accusations and consider processes occurring in our countries positively.