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>>> Coming up next on "Arizona
Horizon," the latest political
news in our weekly update with
the "Arizona Capitol Times."
Also tonight, Arizona could be
looking at an El Nino weather
pattern for later this year.
And Phoenix tons gather input
for walkable communities along
the light rail line.
>>> Those stories next, on
"Arizona Horizon."
>> "Arizona Horizon" is made
possible by contributions from
the friends of eight.
Members of your Arizona PBS
station.
Thank you.
>>> Good evening, and welcome to
"Arizona Horizon."
I'm Ted Simons.
>>> The battle over the budget
continues at the state capitol.
Here with more in our weekly
political update is Ben Giles of
the "Arizona Capitol Times."
Ben, it's good to see you.
The battle is a phrase, it's a
term, and we expected some
pushing and shoving and fighting
and biting, it's getting ear owe
serious down there.
>> The battle has come to a
standstill portion, I guess,
where you have six moderate
Republicans in the house who are
stalling any progress whatsoever
because they don't agree with
billion dollar
budget that the senate sent to
the house last Thursday.
They want more spending in areas
like CPS, particularly in
education, they object to some
of the cuts to education that
are --
Or rollbacks that is proposed,
and they actually came out and
had an impromptu press
conference to say there's no
deal still, and there's no
negotiating to be done because
we're not going to stand for
these cuts.
>> Basically the senate had its
budget, sent it to the house,
that budget a no-go, so much of
a no-go that we've now got a
group of six Republican
lawmakers in the house saying
we're serious about this stuff.
>> Yeah.
And six is just enough to
prevent house speaker Andy Tobin
from getting the 31 votes he
needs from his Republican caucus
in the house to send the budget
out and maybe back to the senate
in something that could go to
the governor's desk pretty
quickly.
It appears now as long as this
group of six moderate
Republicans and the rest of the
caucus both in the house and the
senate can't come to an
agreement, there's no end in
sight.
>> So when the senate sent the
budget over to the house, did
the house look at it and hear
the concerns of the moderates
and send something, maybe a
counter off back to the senate?
>> Not particularly.
The budget as it was supposed to
go to the floor on Monday, no
one really knew who was going to
vote how.
From what we've been told, no
one in the house is really
counting votes, even within the
GOP caucus before they sent the
budget to the floor to see how
it was going to shake out.
And it didn't take them long to
figure out that there's enough
of a block of Republicans in
their own party that are saying,
we can't go for this, we're
going to vote against this.
So rather than have it be
defeated on the floor they
pulled the plug Monday.
And every day since then it's
just been a waiting game to see
are negotiations going well, has
there been any progress?
We've been told that the six
Republicans sent a counteroffer
to Tobin and senate president
Andy Biggs saying this is what
we want the budget to look like.
That was rejected.
And now a counteroffer from
Biggs and Tobin we're told was
sent to the moderate
Republicans, that was rejected.
So we're going nowhere.
>> And again, this is a seat
that post-CPS, the new child
welfare a factor, it sounds like
the bigger factor is education,
specifically the idea of public
K-12 schools starting charter
schools in order to get more
state money.
Talk to us about this.
>> Just in the last fiscal year,
there were 59 schools
operated --
Public schools guy districts
converted to what are known as
district sponsored charter
schools.
And the benefit they get is in
addition to having access to the
local districts K-12 education
funding, they also get chart
school money from the general
fund.
Senate president Andy Biggs has
said that's an inequity in the
funding of schools because the
per pupil funding a district
sponsored charter school gets is
more than a public school
student and more than a normal
charter school student.
So his argument is been if you
want to be a charter school, act
like a charter school and deal
with the constraints a charter
school has to.
>> I think it's like a thousand
dollars more per pupil.
>> Roughly 1200 more, yes.
>> And which makes for an
interesting argument.
You're hearing the senate
president, a very much a
conservative Andy Biggs, opting
against school choice?
>> It was that, an
appropriations in the senate on
Tuesday, you had lawmakers
actually questioning if there
was going to be kind of a
competition for students in
districts as more and more they
anticipate opt for district
sponsored charter schools to get
more funding.
And some superintendents who
came to testify were kind of
aghast because the thought is
school choice and innovation in
schools, which is what these
charter schools are doing,
that's exactly the kind of thing
that Republicans always talk
about when they say this is how
we want to improve schools.
So to now have the senate
president proposing initially a
$33 million rollback of funds
for that program, retroactive to
July 1st, 2013, that would
mean the 59 schools would have
to go back to being public
schools.
But now he's also proposing just
a more widespread change to the
funding of that program, that
would basically discourage any
school from doing it in the
future.
>> And we should note that one
of the major areas that would be
impacted here is where a certain
lawmaker, her district happens
to be.
Talk to us about this.
Some people say this as
retaliation by the senate
president.
>> In fact, the senate president
did say on Monday when he
introduced this bill to change
the governance, change the
funding of district sponsored
charter schools, he was doing so
essentially as a threat to the
house, where you had
representative Heather Carter
sponsoring a measure to take out
his rollback of the $33 million
that the president says I'm not
sure we want to spend on this
program, her amendment did also
include a moratorium so that
schools couldn't convert, but --
And that would give the schools
and the state a time to study
the issue.
But it wasn't enough for senate
president Biggs and kind of
furious that the rollback might
be removed, his threat is this
bill, which democrats and these
moderate Republicans say would
be far worse than the program.
>> Yeah.
So you basically --
You've got democrats ho are
saying, go charter schools, move
over to charter schools because
at least the district gets more
money.
And you've got conservatives
like Biggs saying, no, we don't
need to see more of these kinds
of --
What --
Education establishment, what
are they thinking?
>> The argument from senate
president Biggs too is that this
is the fiscally responsible
thing to do, and depending on
who you ask, there are estimates
that more and more schools as
you said are going to try and
convert to gain access to this
funding.
Which admittedly they've been
doing, because for the past
three years or so billions of
dollars have been cut from K-12
education funding.
But as this program grows
larger, the senate president has
predicted in the next three
years it could be a half billion
dollar budget item.
That is coming from the general
fund that he fears Arizona won't
be able to fund without
increasing taxes.
>> A vague ALT fuels feel from
the dim and distant past.
Last point, you said six
moderate Republicans are a
factor.
Who are those six Republicans?
>> Heather Carter, Kate Brophy
Mcgee, Jeff dial, ethan ORR
and bob Coleman.
Those are our six.
>> All right.
>> And they say they also have a
couple of other Republicans who
share their concerns in the
house, just maybe not willing to
go public in a press conference
as those six did this afternoon.
>> Never a dull moment.
Good to have you here.
Thanks for joining us.
>> Thank you.
>>> Meteorologists are
suggesting the possibility of a
developing El Nino weather
pattern, which means Arizona
could be in store for a wetter
than normal winter.
Joining us now is the state
climatologist for Arizona, Nancy
Selover.
God to see you.
And I'm just --
I'm happy to hear that El Nino
is a possibility.
First of all, tell us what is
El Nino?
>> El Nino is a circulation
pattern where we get warmer than
normal waters in the Equatorial
Pacific, and that allows us
potentially to get a stream of
subtropical moisture that comes
underneath that high pressure
and catches the lower tier of
the U.S.
>> So instead of going above us,
and we just get a dry winter
like we've had, we get tropical
moisture during the winter.
>> Yes.
>> And this is because of what,
weaker trade winds?
>> The trade winds move from
east to west, and so they weaken
and we end up getting more of
the warm water from the eastern
Pacific to move to the central
Pacific.
>> So --
>> Western Pacific to the
central Pacific.
>> What are meteorologists
seeing right now?
>> We've been in a La Nina
situation where we have colder
weather there in the Equatorial
Pacific and we're starting to
see the development of little
bit warmer water, we thought
this was going to happen this
past winter as well.
But about October it just sort
of fizzled out and went away.
>> I was going to ask that, is
it possible we could see an
El Nino forming now and then by
the time El Nino is supposed to
appear, later in the year, it's
all kaput?
>> Yes, that's possible.
We've had that happen.
>> Is it likely?
>> I don't know.
Right now the confidence that we
have that El Nino is going to
form is not real high.
The climate prediction center is
putting out all their outlooks
through the next 18 months, as
being equal chances of a wet or
dry year for us.
>> The idea of an El Nino
forming in the southern
hemisphere in the next few
months, how does that play into
what happens to us, again, later
in the year?
What is that dynamic all about?
>> It's just the ability to tap
into that subtropical moisture
and if we get that, we still
have to have storm systems form,
just because we have moisture
doesn't mean we'll get any rain.
So we really need --
It's the possibility of being
able to tap into that additional
moisture.
>> And the rain here in the
United States would mean
Arizona, California, how far
north?
>> Kind of the --
It's the lower tier of states.
It might catch southern
Colorado, southern Utah, but
definitely Arizona, New Mexico,
Texas, and the southeast as
well.
>> Because these are tropical --
This is tropical air, does that
mean higher snow level, and is
that necessarily a good thing
for Arizona?
>> If we can get the
precipitation at the moment I am
not too concerned about
whether --
Exactly where that snow line is,
because if we get a cold enough
weather system, we will end up
with snow as opposed to rain.
>> El Nino, obviously right now,
we would take it in a heartbeat.
However, if it's a strong
El Nino, you could be looking at
some flooding, you could see
mudslides, a lot of damage too.
>> Sure.
Southern California and much of
California has that as a big
problem for them.
We don't quite have as much
flooding here from the winter
precipitation.
>> As far as Atlantic
hurricanes, do I understand
fewer of those with an El Nino?
Or do we know that?
>> I don't really know that.
I'm not an expert on that, so
I'm not going to put my neck out
there.
>> Again, still no guarantee of
an El Nino, but it's worth
watching.
>> Oh, yes.
It's definitely worth watching,
and cross your fingers.
>> When will we be more sure?
>> September-October when we
see, have we really swung that
direction.
But even earlier in the summer
we'll see if we're starting to
swing towards those much higher
than normal temperatures in the
sea surface in the Equatorial
Pacific.
>> Do those temperatures have
anything to do at all with our
monsoon?
>> No.
>> Not a bit?
>> No.
>> Every year I get you guys on
and I try to figure out how can
we predict the monsoon?
And you always say, there's no
way to do it.
>> We have yet to find a way to
do it there.
Are very short-termTELE
connections is that happen, but
they're on the order of 30 days
out.
If we see one of those we can
have a good idea we might be
getting wetter in that short
period, but this far we don't
have a good clue.
>> El Nino, La Nina and the
neutral in the middle,
absolutely nothing, either
before or after a monsoon
season.
>> Right.
>> That's no fun.
>> I know.
>> That's foot going to help us.
>> I know.
>> You can tell us about the
next few months in the spring,
and it sounds like we're going
to be hot and dry?
>> We're looking like we could
be hot and dry.
There were a couple models, 23
different models that predict
things, and two of them thought
we might have a wet may.
I'm not going to hang my hat on
two of the 23.
Because we couldn't really see
why they were saying that.
>> So it's going to be warmer
and it's going to be --
Dryer than usual, or just dry
period?
>> Just dry period.
We don't have a signal of wetter
or dryer or normal monsoon.
We turned out to be a wet
monsoon last year, that was
good, because we've had this
will be our third dry winter in
a row.
>> Not only that, but did I read
this was the second warmest
winter on record for Arizona?
>> I believe it is, yes.
>> So what is going on?
In the grand scheme of things,
in the 50,000-foot view of our
weather pattern, what's going
on?
>> Well, this winter we had that
huge high pressure that set up
off the coast of the --
Off the West Coast, and that
caused all the storm systems to
go over the top, and then they'd
come down on the other side of
the Rockies, and then they'd
sweep through and they would
suck in that cold Arctic air.
So they were really cold and
snowy, yet here we are under
high pressure, nice clear skies.
Sunny conditions.
>> Is that a La Nina or a
neutral pattern?
>> This was neutral.
>> Because La Nina usually ends
up with stuff like that.
>> Yeah.
We've had wet La Ninas, we've
had dry El Ninos, and wet
neutrals.
>> So a state climatologist, are
you --
Do you feel more confident every
year?
Is the science and the research
and the data, is it improving
every year on this kind of
thing?
>> We're discovering more and
more little nuances with the
teleconnections, so we'll be
able to do a little better at
our forecasting, but when
there's no signal there, there's
really no way to read anything
into it.
>> And as far as the drought is
concerned, it continues
regardless of El Nino, La Nina,
or all points in between.
>> Yes.
Because we've had --
We're somewhere in the
neighborhood of the 18th year
of drought, and that doesn't
mean all 18 years have been
dryer than normal.
We had really wet years.
But they're sporadic.
A nice winter would be good, but
we need several in a row to
bring us back.
>> Is there any indication that
it's going to end soon?
Historically, how long have
these droughts gone in Arizona?
>> In the mid 40s to the mid
70s was about 30 years.
>> Oh, my goodness.
>> In recorded history we have
had them longer than this.
Way before that in the 1900s
there was a 60-year drought.
So we're hoping that's not where
we are.
>> Indeed.
As far as wetter than normal, do
those last as long, or is
drought usually lasting longer?
>> They're kind of similar.
The mid '70s to the mid
'90s, about 20 year fairly wet
before and before the '40s we
had about 20, 25 really wet
period as well.
>> We'll keep an eye on El NiƱo
and hope for the best.
It's good to have you here.
>> Thanks.
>>> Phoenix city officials are
conducting community workshops
to get ideas and input regarding
development along the city's
light rail line.
The goal, to develop walkable
communities that work in
conjunction with mass transit.
Alan Stephenson is the acting
planning and development
director for the city of
Phoenix.
Good to have you here.
Thanks for joining us.
>> Thank you.
>> This is not necessarily --
This reinvent Phoenix thing has
been going on a couple years.
>> It is.
We're in our second year of a
multiyear grant effort from the
department of housing and urban
development, it's about a
$2.9 million grant to work in
collaboration with other
community partners to develop a
walkable transit and development
around our light rail stops.
>> I think ASU and saint loops
also involved in the process?
>> Correct.
>> When we talk about shaping
development along light rail,
what shapes are we looking at
and how close to light rail?
>> Well, we're looking about a
quarter mile around each of the
light rail stops.
And we're looking at a more
urban style of development that
you would see typical of
downtown, and other large cities
where they have more urban and
walkable development as opposed
to our more typical suburban
development standards, Phoenix
has really been a picture
perfect city related to suburban
development, and this is a look
at creating a new option and
more of an urban style of
development.
>> When people hear about
transit oriented development,
what does that mean?
>> It's really about creating
development style that has a
little bit more building height
associated with a typically mix
of uses, and it's a much more
walkable pedestrian friendly
environment that is easily
accessible Via bicycles as well,
more shade, it's a little bit
easier to provide infrastructure
and services from a city
standpoint as well.
>> And the focus would be what,
from downtown Phoenix to
Christown and out again to Sky
Harbor?
>> Yeah.
There's two segments.
From downtown to the city's
eastern limits, which
encompasses east lake Garfield
and gateway areas, and then
north of downtown which is three
different areas to Bethany home
south.
>> That one that goes east along
Washington, it seems to me there
are stretches where there's note
a stop for a long way.
How do you get development and
especially the walkable
communities, bike riding, the
whole nine yards when the stops
are so few and far between?
>> Well, you have to put in
infrastructure to make it so
people want to walk more.
One of the key focus of this
effort is to increase
walkability.
So that's done natural shade,
like landscaping, but man made
shade from overhangs and things
from buildings, to make it more
walkable and create a more
inviting pedestrian environment
so you have small buildings that
break things up, a mix of uses
that create some vitality along
the street and what seems to be
a very inhospitable walk isn't
so.
>> So if you're walking in shade
the whole time, there's a coffee
shop here and a restaurant there
you don't ream eyes how far
you've walked.
>> Correct.
>> Investment strategies, I know
that's a big factor as well.
Talk about the commercial
involvement and what you're
looking --
You're basically looking for
ideas from everyone.
>> Correct.
Right now we're in a two-week
planning process.
We have our consultant in from
out of state, and so we have a
number of meetings over this
two-week period.
Our kickoff meeting was Monday
night and we had about 250
people attend.
So we're getting a broad
spectrum of the community to
participate.
One of our key partners is the
urban land institute as well as
local first Arizona.
Both of those groups are focused
on business and development, so
they're helping us with that
aspect as well.
>> What are you hearing
regarding concerns from business
and development with what can be
done and the challenges of
getting things done along light
rail?
>> A couple of the things we're
hearing are some infrastructure
challenges related to existing
infrastructure that's there,
like water and sewer.
Electric, some of those things
that will have to work through
with them.
Some of the other challenges are
really getting development --
Developers to understand the
different style of development
here and trying to get them to
focus on building something
that's a little bit different.
It's done a lot of other cities,
but it's different here for
Phoenix.
So we're working through a lot
of those issues.
>> You mentioned other cities,
are there models in other cities
that you're looking at or that
you want folks to look at?
>> Yeah, there are a number of
other cities that have light
rail lines that have been
successful.
There's one in San Diego,
Denver, Portland, there are a
lot of cities that have added
those elements to their downtown
areas, and then as you extend
out, you have some more of that
same kind of urban development.
>> I asked about the input
you've heard from the business
community and --
For investment purposes, what
are you hearing from just plain
joes and Janes, the citizens who
really want to be a part, Burt
they're there are stretches of
light rail where there's not
much going on right now.
>> Some of the big things we're
hearing, protect our historic
neighborhoods, and kind of come
up with some compatible design
guidelines so you have interface
from some of the taller
buildings to existing
neighborhoods.
We're hearing a lot about making
those areas walkable, pedestrian
friendly, shade, bicycle
friendly in terms of complete
streets, that the city is
undertaking as well.
We are hearing a lot about local
first and trying to get local
businesses involved and make it
successful for them, not just
some of the larger chains and
suburban shopping mall style.
>> And when you talk about
residential along the line, how
close to the line could that be
and what kind of residential are
you hearing about?
Are you talking about?
>> For the most part it could be
rental, apartment or
condominiums woulds be ownership
type of product.
There's also some single-family
attached style development that
could be built.
A little bit off the light rail
line, that's kind of like a row
house you might see in other
cities, a little more urban,
more dense than we see here, but
it still allows for an ownership
style development.
>> Someone has an idea or they
want to get involved in this,
how do they get involved?
>> We have a website,
reinventphoenix.org.
They can go there and find out
all kinds of information about
this.
We also have upcoming workshops,
including one tonight.
If you're a resident or property
p.m. at
the Phoenix financial center,
which is the northeast corner of
central and Osborne, we have a
p.m., if you're
close by you can race over
there.
We also have workshops coming up
on this Friday, again, the same
to 8:00 p.m. is the
mid term report where the
consultants will give us what
they came up with for the first
week.
And a couple other meetings next
week on Tuesday, April 1st
there's a local first meeting
that's being put on for local
to 8:00
p.m. and the following Friday on
to 8:00 p.m.
the consultant will unveil their
designs for the final two-week
process.
>> And all that is information
on the website?
>> Correct.
>> Last question, when dot
workshops end and the action
begins?
>> So the workshops will end on
April 4th, and then the
consultant will take that final
about it of input they did, go
away to finalize the design and
development our walkable urban
code and come up with parking
strategies to help us, and those
things will be brought back to
get additional public input, and
then adoption by council in the
fall end of the year.
>> All right.
Great information.
Good to have you here.
>> Thank you.
>>> That is it for announcement
I'm Ted Simons.
Thank you so much for joining
us.
You have a great evening.
>>> "Arizona Horizon" is made
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Members of your Arizona PBS
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Thank you.
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