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but it is a interest in the idea that there's 12 guys
in London call the luminosity running the world or pick pick your group but
that's just
just one thats in a way more comforting
another's company minutes in a way more on
I guess confident building that I have an understanding of the world if I know
that that's what's really going on
instead a what really is going on is a complex chaotic
economic social and political world that is a
bandied about and pushed back by all sorts have variables have no control
over we don't even really understand
and furthermore driven by just probabilistic
events and so I things that we deal with that a lot
that I think it's goes a long way to explaining a lot of weird things
wrote a book on weird things one other things that people have trouble with his
understanding
probabilities and I think it's because we didn't evolve to understand
probabilities we evolved
as a social primate species a moderate size
and the plane's about Africa able to see a moderate distance
a medium size objects that move around in our feel we're not used to thinking
long-term thousands of years are tens of thousands of years in Byram in a global
changes we're just not
who cares when a program to think about that program to thank next couple days
next couple weeks couple months at most
up just immediate environment a medium size objects not quantum
bacteria size objects not universal girl galactic size objects just
medium-size I sides it's hard to understand these long-term trends n
and we're not used to computing large in amounts of data because our brains
aren't very good at that
our brains are designed to thank anecdotally this happened then that
happened there's a causal
connection there it's just basic simple Association learning
just a connects to be and oftentimes they are connected
at least often enough that it matters for survival and the times that they are
connected
the time you twirl around three times counter-clockwise in the rain or
whatever
Inc Ilya so it doesn't get out the Darwin Awards where you get taken out
the gene pool for being stupid
I'm that didn't happen unfortunately often enough
antara evolutionary history to eliminate
a stupidity in there it is but it's really not stupidity is really
anecdotal thinking my Aunt Mary's
cousin took extractive seaweed enter cancer run away
well okay I'll try it a
I mean it work for work for me that's a normal way to take
to think scientifically we're gonna have a control group in experimental group in
a separate the variables gonna run along
six-year epidemiological study with a hundred thousand patients we have to
control for agent socioeconomic classes level but this is not a normal way
thinking this takes to now a some training and experience early some
some a organization so that's one of the reasons why
people are understand it million one odds happen three hundred times a day
in america on and just by probabilities
those things are inevitably going to happen and that's what makes the news