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Evgeni Arkusha, president of the Russian Fuel Union
Prices in the country are affected by several main factors.
There are seasonal fluctuations associated with the balance of supply and demand in the country,
related to individual repair work in the factories,
spring planting, autumn harvesting and so on.
These factors cause sinusoidal changes in prices, but the sine is growing,
because the general upward trend in prices is caused by global concerns.
First, the influence of world prices, of course, exists, but, even with stable world prices for oil,
price increases in the country are affected by two main factors.
The first is the inflationary component,
and the second is the annual increase in the tax burden due to the increase in excise tax.
Excise taxes have changed, increasing since 2010.
And this change is planned for several more years.
If we look at the statistics for the last few years,
we will see that by 2010 the prices increased at about the level of inflation:
somewhere around 20% in the early 2000s, with a gradual decrease in the growth rate.
The biggest increase was in 2008, it was related to inflation,
but in 2009 it was negative, prices even fell in comparison to 2008.
Even in 2011, despite the unprecedented efforts of the government to curb rising prices due to the political situation,
prices increased by about 13-14%.
This caused confusion for the President of our country,
he has instructed the relevant ministries to report on why it happened, but, in my opinion, it did not end there.
But still, even in 2011, the rise in prices was quite substantial.
This 11-14% was composed of two components: 7% of inflation and 7% of an increase in excise tax.
If we look at the data of 2012,
we will see that prices changed in 2012 by only 6-7% for petrol and around 13% for diesel fuel,
which is well below expectations.
The official inflation accounted for around 6%, in fact it is more, as you know,
and excise taxes increased by about 7%, if we convert them to retail prices, that is, we expected them to increase more.
I think the shortage of rising prices, so to speak,
that is, the loss of the oil companies at the expense of administrative pressure on prices, I gently say,
is felt now in the growth of prices. This is the first point.
The second point is, of course, the increase in excise duties. Excise taxes rose from 1 January.
Indeed, on July 1, they will be raised for the 4th and 5th class
to reduce the excise duty differentiation between 3th and 4th-5th classes.
But the increase of excise duties from January 1,
considering also that VAT is calculated with the excise duty,
since the excise tax is not considered to be a tax,
this growth would lead to prices higher by around 1.7 rubles.
Of course, this is not an instantaneous process, but within a year, surely the market must feel this.
And the third thing that contributed to a gradual increase in prices today,
we see it in wholesale and retail, is the fact that consumers seem to feel that prices have reached bottom,
and they actually fell during the end of last year,
and begin purchasing fuel and making stockpiles, knowing that prices will continue to grow.
So, in fact, public policies for the annual increase of the tax burden do not help lower prices.
Add inflation to this.
Therefore, I believe that we will not see a decline in prices without some fundamental changes in the world situation,
for example, a decrease in the price of oil, as it was in 2009, when after the crisis it fell significantly.
If the situation on the world market remains as it is today, prices will gradually rise.
We would like this price increase not to exceed inflation plus rising prices by increasing the tax burden.
Anatoly Golomolzin, deputy head of the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service
Based on recent years, we have, unfortunately, encountered a practice where oil companies have promised
that they will engage in the modernization of refineries,
but as a rule, our colleagues from the Department of Energy have provided the information about it:
the plans that have previously been stated were half carried out.
The other half, of course, has not been implemented,
and this was accompanied by questions on the adequacy of the supply of petroleum products to the domestic market.
So we should, even though it was not our function in a pure form, enter into such agreements
in order to prevent the possibility of shortages of fuel of the right quality on the market.
Also, we had to do this at a time when we moved to a new technical regulation
which set requirements for fuel supplied to the domestic market.
Also, we had to do this given the experience
that we have once tried to go to a higher quality of fuels
and found that we cannot produce a sufficient amount of it.
So now the situation is controlled, respectively, by Rosstandart and Gostehnadzor
implementing control within their jurisdiction.
Together with the Ministry of Energy, we combine these issues
with the question of balancing in the supply of fuel to the domestic market,
that is, the adequacy of its production and if necessary, the possibility of supply, in particular, from Belarus.
In the past year, significant amounts of fuel from Belarus were sold on Russian exchanges.
Therefore, there is a fast connection to the situation to change and improve it.
Indeed, in recent years there was a significant increase in excise tax.
On this chart, you can see the situation related to gasoline and diesel fuel.
In general, the levels of excise duties on petrol are higher than the levels of the excise tax on diesel fuel.
This is due to the additional measures to stimulate involvement of diesel fuel in the fuel mix.
But the excise tax on diesel fuel grew at a faster pace than the excise duties on petrol.
On the one hand, this was due to the fact that the original base was more in excises on gasoline.
On the other hand, it was also connected with the reconfiguration and the formation of differentiated tariffs for different classes of fuel.
Hence, the state encouraged the oil companies to ensure that they produce fuel of higher quality.
These goals have generally been achieved.
This measure of economic stimulus really has proved effective,
and many oil companies in the Russian Federation produce only fuel of the 5th class.
There are those that produce 4th-5th class, and there are those that produce the third class,
which is permitted in accordance with the regulations.
By the way, our Belarusian colleagues also have long switched to the production of fuel of the 4th-5th grades,
and the state of the oil refineries of our neighbors is at a very high level.
Viktor Kolesnikov, Director of the Institute of Economy, Energy and Housing complex of HSE
Our oil companies calculate the domestic price of oil as an export price:
plus deliveries by rail, minus the customs duty, thus linking our domestic prices to world prices.
This is one factor, or its explanation.
The second important factor, in my view, is geographical dominance.
The oil companies have divided the country into some areas of influence.
And if an oil company has a filling station in another area, not the one on which there is a refinery,
these transport costs are accordingly included in the price of oil sold at gas stations.
I think there is a vast field of work for the regulator, so that the oil companies trade among themselves,
and perhaps it also in some way will affect the price reduction.
This is my subjective point of view.
The third factor is certainly high taxes.
The fourth factor is seasonal adjustments.
These seasonal fluctuations with the introduction of custom duties by the regulator are completely ignored as a factor;
the oil companies, by the way, also do not consider this. But still, this affects the situation.
Pavel Fedorov, Deputy Energy Minister
On January 1 this year, the country has moved to a new class of ecological fuel.
Some of the larger cities, especially Moscow, went to the 4th class.
It is, in fact, a very big step forward. There is three times less sulphur and other pollutants in the air.
After all, in fact it is done for the environment of big cities, we are still not feeling this,
but in the coming months, we should feel it. This is important.
Secondly, the market is working. We do not have government regulation of the prices of petroleum products,
but the market is working.
There is a real exchange trading, which creates a transparent, clear benchmark for the pricing of petroleum products.
There is a definite growth in demand, there is a constantly improving supply,
because the modernization of refineries is being implemented at a faster pace:
190 billion rubles were invested in the construction of 15 new refineries.
Next year we expect more investment. There has been quite a fundamental rethinking of the principles of taxation;
this concerns oil production and refining.
Therefore, if we talk about the general premise, the market is balanced,
the product is available, market mechanisms are working and continue to improve.
There are inflationary factors, factors of external markets,
all factors are related to the current market conditions,
and prices will go up or go down,
depending on what is happening on the stock exchanges in Rotterdam, depending on what is happening in the world markets in oil prices.
But we are working with all of this, and our job is to ensure maximum transparency,
to ensure availability of petroleum products in all regions of Russia,
and to create the most competitive market with plenty of offers for the consumer.
This is the most important task. And after that,
I think, step by step we will move forward to ensure that petroleum products,
given the inflation and so on, are becoming more affordable.