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>> Clare: Life has changed dramatically in the last few decades, affecting the way we
live and the way we work. Technology has changed the way we think and the way we do things.
The 21st century will see the speed of change accelerate. Dorset Fire and Rescue Service
needs to be aware of, cope with, plan for and where possible influence this change.
We are already making a start with new buildings such as this brand new headquarters and new
fire station at Poundbury. There is no doubt that the Dorset sub-region - which includes
the areas covered by Dorset County Council and the Boroughs of Poole and Bournemouth,
which are both unitary councils - will be a very different place in the coming decades.
We need to assess how life will be affected by these changes in order to anticipate the
possible safety implications. Safer 2020 is a joint collaboration between Dorset Fire
& Rescue Service and Dorset Police and is based on research that brings together trends,
scenarios, forecasts and aspirations looking at the future. No one can guarantee what the
future will be like and Safer 2020 suggests a series of wide reaching scenarios that are
designed to stimulate discussion and challenge assumptions. This will enable us to develop
more informed plans - not just for next year, but for many years to come. So what could
living in Dorset be like in 2020? Safer 2020 Research suggests that the overall population
in the Dorset sub-region will rise by between 16,000 and 40,000 by 2020. People are increasingly
individualistic and self-centred and lead more self- indulgent lives. Leisure time is
increasing for most people but volunteering in their community is likely to be driven
by your own personal goals rather than just for the benefit of the community.
>> Hilary: People in higher earning households are more likely to volunteer than those in
lower earning households so we will need to work much harder to get people in low earning
households to volunteer, particularly in deprived locations.
>> Clare: Social trends see more people living longer and either not having children or delaying
having families until later on in life. There will be a decrease in 'typical' family households
with increases in single, cohabiting and multi-occupier households. More older people live alone and
there is a widening gap between young and old with some communities having no children
in them at all. >> Nigel: Well thankfully people are living
longer and healthier lives we know that a lot of older people now are living alone for
much longer in their own homes and these neighbourhoods are growing where we have large areas of older
people. Very often however, they live in housing that requires quite a bit of maintenance and
adds extra costs, and we do know that the dilemma in these houses which require a lot
of money to be spent on them, causes them to make decisions about maintaining their
homes and their other priorities. We also know whether a neighbourhoods with poorer
quality housing they are more subjected to anti social behaviour, crime and especially
fires. >> Clare: Overall, the quality of life remains
high, but although Dorset is a safe place to live and work, peoples increasing fear
for their personal safety and security will be disproportionate to the risk. Recreational
drug use is expected to increase and the fall in drug prices and increase in alcohol consumption
will have impacts on crime. >> Nigel: Well we know sadly that drug use
is increasing, and certainly in areas of Dorset we are noticing an increased use of drugs.
I think what we need to do as a Fire Service, and our partners is to help support people,
provide them treatment and access to that help that they require to come off drugs.
Really as a prelude to anything other than enforcement, I think we can work in partnership
to help others reach out to those who need our help and support and make the connections
to those who can help. >> Clare: There is likely to be an increase
in intensity of assaults during theft of high tech portable gadgets and more web-crime with
a rise in e-bullying, e-harassment, fraud, financial crime, ID theft and the theft of
intellectual and personal data. More older people could commit crime and society may
not be sympathetic to this trend, with prisons increasingly being full of older inmates.
There is a greater use of call centres to handle reporting of crime through new contact
points and on-line reporting and new mass surveillance technology achieves quicker arrests,
more convictions and more people caught for petty crimes. Cameras become pervasive and
less visible and weapons are easier to detect through the use of new surveillance equipment.
>> Nigel: We do know there is a direct link between crime, anti social behaviour and deliberate
fires being started. We know that in areas where there is low income or poor housing
or limited access to education and skills that we notice that there are more fires and
incidents that we attend. It really is for us to work with partners to reach into these
communities and help these people, give them access to better housing and make them feel
safe. >> Clare: Communities have more responsibility,
resources and technology to deliver their own services and protection. Deprivation remains
largely in the same locations, but now also accounts for people that are technologically
deprived, as more services become available via the internet alone. There are more people
from different cultural backgrounds either living or visiting the area. This brings an
increasing risk of tensions with the growing migrant communities in Bournemouth, Poole
and Weymouth. >> Hilary: Having more diverse communities
means that we will need to concentrate more on communicating with migrant workers. Many
migrant workers are in low paid, low skilled jobs such as tourism, leisure, social care,
yet in fact many of them are very highly qualified, and if we can tap into that, this could be
a very useful resource for us. >> Clare: The Dorset economy is likely to
grow, but is largely home grown and comprises mainly of small and micro sized businesses.
It is a diverse economy building on existing industries, strengthening high technology,
world-class marine engineering, creative industries, world status tourism and leisure, traditional
trades and products. The largest single growth sectors are in care, education and skills.
80% of the available workforce were in work in 2007 so the work force will be aging and
will need re-skilling, however a quarter of them will be retiring by 2017.
>> Alison: There are some issues for us about having an elderly workforce in terms of how
we recruit and retain them and train them and there are also other issues about housing
shortages and competition from other employers. >> Clare: Changing work practices see increasing
part-time, flexible and home working and more 24-hour activity.
>> Nigel: We are increasingly seeing that the 24 hour society is coming to Dorset. We
are noticing that pubs, clubs and restaurants are open throughout the night this places
increasing demands on the Emergency Services to look after the wellbeing and safety of
people. >> Clare: Dorset is a place of contrasts where
people enjoy and protect traditional pastimes yet comfortably embrace new technological
advances. There are new alternative fuels for energy, more nuclear and renewable energy
generation and handheld fuel cell powered devises. Robotics move from the factory to
the home helping people live independently. Transport and travel see the introduction
of assisted lane keeping systems, car positioning systems, GPS and engine management linked
to speed limits. Black boxes are built into all new cars. Three-dimensional online mapping
takes over from the current two-dimensional online maps.
>> Nigel: Technology is developing at an alarming rate, we are noticing much more mobile devices
and differing power sources. They are having a significant impact on the way we all live
our lives, and of course the risks are changing because of them.
>> Clare: The number of dwellings will rise with over 33,000 new houses being built by
2020. Many are smaller properties. New build stock should increase environmental standards
and make dwellings more secure and safe but older stock will rely on maintenance to keep
up-to-date. House prices continue to rise and there is an increase in the number of
people living in privately rented accommodation. Employers are likely to increasingly look
at ways to provide homes for key workers. Higher levels of people will be in temporary
accommodation or homeless with people increasingly using mobile and static caravans. The numbers
of second homes are likely to rise. >> Alison: The increase of second homes ownership
could actually make some of our communities empty during the week and could actually result
in ghost settlements. As another consequence it could be that we get more gated communities
to protect those areas and at the other end of the scale we could see more problem areas
and even squats. >> Clare: Expansion of Bournemouth airport
will see over 3 million passengers per year, 30,000 aircraft movements and 80 hectares
of additional employment land. Stimulated by the 2012 Olympics, there will be an expanded
ferry port and marine industry in Weymouth. Expansion of commercial land brings an on-going
tension between conserving the high quality environment of the Dorset sub-region against
pressures for residential and commercial development. >> Alison: It's going to be a real issue for
us to effectively cover areas where there is increased residential and commercial properties
and we need to look at how we could be effectively involved in the early stages of how buildings
are made. >> Clare: The need to accommodate increased
traffic will see several major road projects. There are more road traffic collisions due
to traffic congestion and older drivers but there are fewer injuries and deaths thanks
to safer technology. >> Hilary: Better road safety needs to be
enforced giving the changing technology of cars and the different profiles of drivers
and we need to make maximum use of satellite technology to pin point where incidents are
occurring. >> Clare: Future flood alleviation requires
major civil engineering works to support it but more severe weather is likely with increases
in flooding from heavier storms, coastal and tidal flooding and groundwater flooding. Increased
droughts are expected in the summer along with the risk of heat waves. One in five households
are without household insurance. By 2050 the average temperature is likely to rise by 3.5Âșc.
There will be drier summers and autumns and wetter winters. Ice is much less common. The
warmer weather sees more tourism with increased pressures on the local environment. Shifts
in biodiversity could see an increased need for wildlife protection as changes in species
population and distribution lead to the need for greater protection. There is an increased
risk of wild habitat fires on heathland and plantation woodland.
>> Alison: Climate change is an issue for us and we need to ensure that our personnel
are really well trained and equipped to face the changes and we also need to ensure that
we effectively understand what our lead role is in climate change and in disasters or incidences
that occur. >> Clare: There is a continued high demand
for energy consumption and an increasing gap between supply and demand causing likely blackouts.
Improved energy efficiency allows for CO2 to decline per head of population. There is
likely to be a significant incident involving major land contamination, a major air quality
incident and a major pollution of controlled water is very likely.
>> Nigel: We all know that the environment is changing and that has bought significant
challenges from the events we've seen throughout the country. We know technology is changing
and again that brings significant risks. We don't have a crystal ball that tells us exactly
what will happen but we do have a wealth of information that is showing us what Dorset
might look like in 2020 and we are planning to make sure that people are safe. We know
that there are large events coming up in our county such as the Olympics and we know that
we have large numbers of students coming in and out of our county so there are people
living here, working here and coming to visit for long or short periods of time and we need
to work together to make sure they are safe. >> Clare: I'm joined now by Dorset's Chief
Fire Officer, Darren Gunter. Darran, there are some serious implications that have come
out of the Safer 2020 research. >> Darran: There are some serious implications
and what it does provide for us very much is a 20 year vision a 20 year blueprint of
where we want to take our Service and how we can best prepare to provide safer communities
in Dorset. >> Clare: And there are financial implications?
>> Darran: There are financial implications and people look at us and say well in days
of tightening budgets surely this is a bit 'pie in the sky', but what it allows for us
is to concentrate on doing the right things, and doing the right things well, and certainly
within the report we look at where the communities will be where the risks will be the different
age profiles the different technology the different road infrastructures, all of that
is vital to making sure we make the best possible use of our budgets.
>> Clare: What about your partners? >> Darran: Well our partners are absolutely
key. I mean our vision is working in partnership to make Dorset safer and certainly some of
the issues we've identified such as the elderly groups, people who are suffering with disabilities
and other issues it would be dependent on us working with Social Service, Health Service,
Primary Care Trusts to reduce risks to these people.
>> Clare: And what do you say to people who look at this and say that it is just conjecture?
>> Darran: Well it's not conjecture, and every year now for the last 15 years we've provided
an annual Community Safety Plan and every year in honesty, sometimes our direction has
slightly changed. What this provides is absolute clarity about where we are going as a Service
and where we are looking to take safer communities in Dorset.
>> Clare: Thank you very much indeed. So there you have it, whilst we can never predict exactly
what will happen in the future Dorset Fire and Rescue Service are putting plans in place
to cope with the changes.