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This is a special briefing video on Tropical Storm Karen from the National Weather Service
in Tallahassee. It was recorded around 5 PM on Thursday, October 3rd.
Because warning information and specific details could change with each advisory, it is always
best to check for the latest information on the National Hurricane Center website at hurricanes
[dot] gov, or on the National Weather Service Tallahassee website at weather [dot] gov [slash]
tallahassee.
As of the 5 PM Advisory, Tropical Storm Karen was located about 400 miles south of the mouth
of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 miles per hour with higher
gusts. The minimum central pressure was 999 millibars, and the storm was moving north-northwest
at 12 miles per hour.
The 5 PM forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Karen to move on a general
northerly or northwesterly course for the next 36 to 48 hours, before it begins to recurve
due to the approach of a cold front from the northwest. Because it is forecast to recurve
to the northeast as it approaches the Gulf coast, do not assume there will be no impacts
if it initially looks like the storm is headed west of our area. Track details are still
uncertain, so if you live in or near the white cone of uncertainty on the graphic, you should
be ready for impacts depending on the track. Be sure to consider what you would do if the
storm takes a more direct course for our area. Do not focus just on the center, as impacts
can extend outward from the center of a storm hundreds of miles. Karen may become a hurricane
over the Gulf of Mexico.
The next two slides will explain the track uncertainty. In the first scenario, if the
cold front moves a little slower, or Karen moves northwest a little faster, it will be
able to cover more ground before it recurves. This would lead to a more westerly track that
could focus impacts further west.
However, if the cold front moves a little faster, or Karen moves a little slower, the
tropical storm will cover less space in the Gulf before it begins to recurve, which would
mean a track much closer to our area, potentially a direct hit. This would lead to more significant
weather impacts in our area. Because of this possibility, it is very important that you
continue to monitor the forecast.
What should you focus on this evening? There is a chance that Karen could impact our area.
Even if the center passes to the west of our area, keep in mind that impacts can extend
outward hundreds of miles from the center. The most likely area to feel impacts is the
Florida Panhandle coastline west of Apalachicola. Heavy rain will be likely near and to the
east of wherever the center tracks. 2 to 4 feet of storm surge is possible in Apalachee
Bay, with 1 to 2 feet of storm surge in the Florida Panhandle. Finally, we should have
more specifics by tomorrow as confidence begins to increase.
Here are a few things you can do. Keep an eye on the forecast. It is likely to change
or be fine tuned. Review your hurricane plan. And finally, share what you know. Make sure
that people are aware of the potential impacts from the tropical storm.
One hazard that will begin to increase even on Friday, when the sun could be shining and
it may not be very windy, will be rip currents on area beaches. Swell arriving from Tropical
Storm Karen will begin to increase the surf and lead to dangerous rip currents. Do not
be fooled by otherwise pleasant weather conditions.
Thank you for watching our video briefing. For more information, connect with us on the
web or on social media.