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Mike Rudibaugh, Lake Land College,
Regional Economic Report.
Community Audit and Critical Skills Shortage Analysis.
What you're looking at in the slide is the southeast economic
development region with the three identified subregions
for the CSSI study--Region 1, South; Region 2, West;
and Region 3, North.
At times analysis will be covering all three regions
at once at the aggregate level, and on some types of analysis
we will break down to the individual subregions.
The focus of this talk is to look at the southeast economic
development region on a variety of issues concerning economic
development and demographic characteristics of the region.
Primary issues for the talk will be population, demographics,
county business patterns, labor trends, income, and overall
commuting patterns of workers in and out of the region.
So the analysis will begin with the six to seven topic areas
over the southeast economic development region, and
the first analysis will be on population.
Population trends of the region were referenced from using
Bureau of Economic Anaylsis data from 1969-2005.
The map on the slide indicates overall trends at the county
level, how population trends moved over the time period.
Counties that are in orange and red actually went down, and
as you can see on the map five to six counties that
actually declined in population over that time frame,
whereas counties in yellow and green drifted or
moved up in population.
The darker the green the higher the population growth
for that county.
So as identified on the map, Effingham had the largest
population growth over the time period in the southeast
economic development region.
The overall population growth for the region was a total
net increase of 11,000 which was a 4% growth from 1969-2005, and
the trend for the overall state averages during that
same time frame was a little over 15%.
This information is important to economic developers and
regional planners in that the region itself is being outpaced
by other areas of the state of Illinois, and obviously there
are major economic and political implications as an area is not
growing in relation or as fast as other areas of the state.
So as a whole, the state's low population growth is certainly
being outpaced by other areas of the state, which
could potentially lead to more marginalized political
and economic positions in state and national politics
and economic planning.
The image you're looking at now is the county population
trends for the 13 counties in the southeast
economic development region.
This graph just captures sort of the in-between years
between 1969 and 2005, and clearly indicates a fairly flat
overall population growth for most counties.
Barring the anomoly of Effingham County, which shows some
population growth in some linear trends from about the mid 1980's
up through 2000, most counties do not demonstrate any kind of
population or significant population growth barring that
of Effingham County in the western region.
Demographics.
This map you're looking at here will be an animation of
looking at population trends from 2000-2012.
And what it generally shows is over time that the population
of your prime workforce from 20 to 54 is actually
shrinking over time.
And the 19 and younger crowd, which is your next generation
of workers, they are also decreasing.
These pie charts clearly demonstrate that the
workforce is aging, and that from 2000-2012, the only
age cohort that is growing in terms of percentage is
over the age of 55.
This would lead to major implications with how employers
potentially fill employment needs, as some of these
employment needs could be met by workers that are
older than the age of 55.
So how employers market and potentially recruit workers of
this age will have to be accounted for potentially
as the workforce is aging.
The following slide will show you trends in the state,
the southeast region, and the other subregions within the
southeast economic development region.
The next slide is a trend of median household income
for the three subregions, the region as a whole,
against state trends in Illinois.
And what the graph clearly demonstrates is over time,
that the subregion and the southeast region as a whole,
that a gap is increasingly widening up in terms of
median household incomes.
This graph tends to suggest that salaries are not growing at the
pace salaries are growing in relation to the state.
So this graph could have major implications in terms of how
potential employers could be losing employees in the region
as they begin to tap into other areas of the state
with higher salaries.
So this could be potentially one of these graphs in the
presentation that long-term plans or strategic planning
could lead to some suggestions of how we could potentially
close this gap and potentially become more competitive with
salary bases within the region.
The following graph shows educational trends of workers in
the southeast economic region over the age of 25 in terms of
educational attainment in relation to the state.
And when we look at the educational attainment of
workers in the southeast economic development region,
we can clearly see that the percentage of workers without
a high school degree is fairly close to state trends.
Where our real gap appears to open up is when we look at
workers at the other end of the educational attainment ladder,
and we can begin to see a significant gap between
workers in the state versus workers in the southeast region
in terms of the percentage of the workers with some sort
of post-secondary degree.
This graph could potentially indicate that long-term planning
should occur with education and industries of how this gap could
be potentially closed and how it could benefit the
overall economy of the region.
Clearly about 22% of the workers in the southeast economic
development region have some sort of post-secondary degree,
whereas the number is around 32% to 33% in the state.
That gap is potentially a source of economic development and
workforce development issues that need to be addressed
to diversify potential job recruitment and diversify
the economy in terms of new economy industries.
The next graph is a more pin-pointed targeted view
of educational attainment within one of the subregions
of Illinois, within the southeast economic
development region in particular.
This is the northern region, or Region 3, and what this graph
shows is how a GIS mapping program could use census data
to show where there are potential targets of where
people do not have any sort of post-secondary degree,
and the highest densities of areas with people without a
post-secondary degree are identified on the map in
little dark brown one square mile cubes or squares.
And so on the map you can clearly see where there's
the greatest sort of potential target where
educational planners and regional economic developers
could begin to see where within one of the regions where the
greatest potential is to improve on educational
attainment trends within the region.
And clearly on the map there is the clear corridor between
Eastern Illinois and Lakeland College of where there is a
prime market near major community colleges and
universities that can help meet that need.
County business patterns.
This pie chart indicates the breakdown of the payroll
for the region in 2005.
In 2005 the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates that the
southeast region is a $2.5 billion economy and payroll.
Fifty-four percent of that payroll was accounted for with
the three targeted industries within the CSSI study.
Forty-six percent of the payroll in the region was accounted for
outside of these three targeted industries.
So interesting trends here reveal that the three targeted
industries do represent over half of the payroll economy in
the southeast region, but nearly as much of the payroll
is accounted for outside the region.
Any comprehensive planning to coordinate workforce and
economic development issues would probably have to account
for this other 46% in terms of what sectors are these,
where are they, and what do their employees look like
in terms of educational and demographic trends.
So just an interesting point to make with looking at the
three targeted industries in the CSSI study within
the southeast region.
Within the three targeted industries, manufacturing
represents almost 33% of the $2.5 billion payroll within
the region, healthcare 16%, and TDL.
So perception in the region of a non-existent manufacturing
economy at times might not be reflected in the actual data
that indicate that manufacturing is still a viable and
significant portion of the southeast economic
development region economy.
The next graph shows the overall trends which is the number of
employees working in the region using BEA statistics from 2005.
And similar trends with the payroll are revealed with
this graph as well, that 57% of the employees in the region
are working within the three targeted industries of
manufacturing, TDL, and healthcare, with a little over
40% coming from industries outside the
three targeted industries.
So clearly a critical mass of employees does exist within the
three targeted industries.
However, another significant piece of employees is out there
in terms of employees that are working in industries outside of
the three targeted industries.
And clearly manufacturing is the largest of the
targeted industries, representing 37% of the
workforce in the southeast economic development region
with close to a little over 92,000 employees.
This graph demonstrates how, or this map indicates
how the different targeted industries are distributed
across the region.
This map here is the location of TDL employers located within
the southeast economic development region.
And all the purpose of this map is to clearly demonstrate that
there are clusters of activities within the sub-regions.
The stars in blue, green, and red colors indicate where,
for example, the geographic center or major cluster of
employers are located, either based upon the number of
employees or sales volume, which would be a weighted variable,
or just a geographic location of the TDL industry employers.
Clearly maps like this indicate that the western region
in particular around Effingham County, is where the
main cluster of employers is located, as indicated by the
three stars identifying three different mean centers of
distribution on the map.
So clearly these industries are not necessarily equally
distributed across the three sub-regions, as some regions
will be more important than others for certain industries.
And clearly for the transportation distribution and
logistics industry, it is located within the western
region, anchored around Effingham County, near where
Interstates 57 and 70 intersect.
The next map is a subregion view of how to use this analysis
within the northern region.
And the map here indicates the five counties representing the
northern region and where the geographic mean center would be
of all of the healthcare employers within just one
of the regions, so we are looking more at a micro view
of the data here.
And the map clearly indicates, using stars, where every
healthcare employer is, and the blue cross on the map
represents where the geographic center is of the distribution
of healthcare employers.
And as the map indicates within the northern region,
that maximum cluster would be in Coles County just
east of the city of Charleston.
This slide here is the actual healthcare mean center of
employers within just one of the sub-regions, so this is more of
a micro view of the data, and it shows just the five counties
in the northern region.
So if we wanted to pinpoint within one of the regions
how we can identify a given industry sector's mean center
or maximum cluster of activity.
And on this map the red cross indicates where the maximum
cluster is of healthcare employers within the northern
sub-region, and as the map indicates, the maximum cluster
is identified just north of the city of Charleston.
Employment trends by industry indicate that the
Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that from 2001 to
2005, most of the counties actually saw a decrease in
the total number of employees in the region.
Only five counties were able to demonstrate employment gains,
total net gains, over the four- to five-year period
in the first part of this decade.
So Moultrie, Edgar, Cumberland, Fayette, and Lawrence Counties
were the only counties that actually demonstrated
employment gains.
And the map clearly indicates that the recession of
2001 clearly had long-lasting effects and impacts on
employment trends within the region.
This map specifically targets counties with employment gains
for the three targeted industries, and as the map
indicates using the legend, only no county could actually
demonstrate employment gains in all three sectors as a part of
the three target sectors of the CSSI study--
manufacturing, healthcare, and TDL.
Four of five counties--Moultrie, Coles, Cumberland, Effingham,
and Lawrence--actually saw two industries grow
over that time period.
Edgar and Crawford had one of those targeted industries
grow for the same time period, and the rest of the counties
experienced no growth in the three target sectors
of the CSSI study.
Specifically, you can see to the right which sectors had growth
and which counties for manufacturing, healthcare, and
TDL on the right hand side of the slide.
The next and last section will be on commuting patterns.
Map 1 here indicates the location of employee by county
for the southeastern economic development region for 1970.
So this tells us where employees are coming from into the region,
and the map clearly indicates areas in red, or
counties in red had zero.
And as the shades go to orange, yellow, light green, and
dark green, the number of workers coming from
those counties increases.
And clearly the most workers are coming from the counties
within the region.
But this map is to show you sort of the commuter shed of
workers coming into work within the southeast
economic development region.
The next slide will transition to 2000 to show how the
commuter shed changed over time.
In 2000, the first and obvious thing you should see is how the
commuter shed has expanded to a number of counties that were
initially red, have flipped to yellow and orange colors,
indicating that those counties were feeding commuters into
the southeast economic development region.
More importantly it indicates that over time, workers are
coming from further and further away for jobs and employment
within the southeast economic development region.
The following slide will attempt to put a number to
how significant this transistion has had on the percentage of
workers within the region coming from outside the southeast
economic development region.
The next slide is the reverse process of where
workers are heading, so this is the out-migration
of workers in 1970.
And this slide shows you where workers' destinations are
for jobs from the counties inside the region of study.
Clearly the dark areas in red, those counties have no workers
from the southeast economic development region
currently working in 1970 in those counties.
Any county that has a color non-red has workers, and the
number of workers increases from orange up through dark green.
Clearly most of the workers within the southeast economic
development region were obviously within their
home region, as indicated on the map.
What we will begin to do is look at the commuter shed
in terms of the out-migration of workers within the
southeast economic development region.
The next map shows you 30 years later, how that commuter shed
had changed or evolved for workers within the southeast
economic development region.
Clearly and obviously the map indicates that increasingly
a number of counties that were red now have again flipped to
oranges, light greens, and yellows, indicating that indeed
workers from the southeast region are migrating out to
counties further and further away from their home region.
Obviously this has impacts on the length of commutes and the
percentage of workers in the region that no longer work
necessarily locally.
Some general trends of this employment pattern indicate that
in 1970 about 5% of workers were outside the southeast
economic development region.
By 2000, 11% of the workers were from outside of the southeast
economic development region.
The implications of this are, is that workers obviously are
increasingly being pulled upon from areas outside the
southeastern region.
This not only refers to workers coming from outside the region,
but increasingly workers are leaving the region as well.
Now one of the keys for this trend is assessing are there
more workers coming out versus coming in to the region, and
this will be assessed with later slides in the presentation.
Key questions that will need to be asked of these commuter maps
are, why are workers increasingly being pulled upon
from outside the region?
This will be a critical outcome of the CSSI study, in that
employers, economic developers, researchers, need to really
assess why this trend is happening, and also in turn,
why are workers increasingly leaving the region
in reverse of this.
This will have a critical impact on how employers meet local
work force demand, and how local economies will move forward or
retract as a response to work force and supply relationships.
One thing that the commuter patterns do indicate is the
growing sense of regionalism between the southeastern region
and the counties adjacent and further out from the
southeast region in terms of commuter patterns.
Apparently our local economy is getting more connected to
counties outside the region, and this clearly indicates that
workers in the region are becoming more interconnected
with county economies not only inside the region but
outside the region as well.
Commuting known patterns indicate that an economic node
as identified by the State of Illinois is an area where major
industries are located and the in-commuting is greater than
the out-commuting by workers.
When looking at the county commuting patterns for the
13 counties within the southeastern economic
development region, only 4 counties met this criteria of
actually bringing in more counties than sending out.
These four hubs of employment were Coles, Effingham,
Clay, and Crawford.
These trends would have to be clearly accounted for by
regional planners and economic developers in terms of assessing
which counties are operating as epicenters for potential
local economic development.
These counties in 2000 clearly indicate that they do have a net
in-flow of workers versus out-flow of workers.
When examining some of the other counties, the following slide
shows you some of the specific data of migration patterns of
workers in and out of the county.
The fourth column indicates whether or not it had node
status in 2000, and from the table you can see some of the
counties within the southeastern economic development region
in 1970 and in 2000, and you can begin to see how the
migration in and migration out patterns have changed.
Clearly more people are coming in and out from 1970 to 2000,
that's clear by the data.
But it's also clear that the migration out patterns are
clearly greater than coming in for most counties, so this table
provides a sense of some hard numbers of the net gains and
losers in terms of the commuting patterns in the region.
The following maps will be more of a sub-region view of the
commuter shed of where workers are kind of the out migration of
commuters in the southern region.
So the following map shows the four counties in the
southern subregion, which was Region 1 of the CSSI study.
And you can begin to see where workers are heading in terms of
the southern regions commuter shed.
And clearly on the map this subregion's commuter shed
has increased, and in particular for the southern subregion is
the role of these counties beginning to send workers at
an increasing rate into Indiana as identified by the rise of
Knox County and many of the other counties
around Vincennes, Indiana.
The following map is the commuter shed of where workers
are heading within the western region, which was
Region 2--Effingham, Fayette, Marion, and Clay.
And clearly the map indicates an expanding commuter shed with
increasingly workers within the western region moving farther
north, south, east, and west in terms of work opportunities
further away from their home region of residence.
Specifically with the west region, numbers can be assessed
to show the overall trend of how significant it has been, is in
1970 there were 29,000 workers, and 27,000 of them were from
within the western region, which was a 93.4% market share.
By 2000, the region had 50,000 workers and 44,000 of them, or a
little over 44,000 of them, were from the western region and
the local market was only 88% locally driven.
So that means that increasingly, workers within the
western region are clearly being impacted by other counties'
workers coming in to the labor shed for jobs.
Region 3 shows the trends for the northern commuting trends,
or Region 3, 1970 versus 2000.
And again a similar trend is revealed when looking at the
two commuter sheds for 1970 and 2000 side by side.
These maps indicate that over time increasingly, workers are
moving further and further out to tap into economic and
job opportunities outside of the northern subregion.
Specifically, in 1970 we can see that 91% of the labor market
remained local with commutes, whereas by the year 2000,
this number had dropped down to 82% of the labor market
remains local with commute.
This clearly indicates a sign over the 30-year time frame
that workers were increasingly migrating outside of the
northern region to access opportunities in employment
markets outside the region.
Specifically just to show in detail where they were heading,
in the year 2000 the counties on the map indicate
the top five destinations of where workers within
the northern region were heading.
And clearly the map indicates that the regions of
prime destinations for northern subregion commuters was
Vigo, Douglas, Macon, Effingham, and Champaign Counties, and
they are identified in black on the map.
To show how significant these counties are to the regional
economy of the northern subregion, these counties
represented 8.15% of the destination of workers in 1970.
By 2000, these counties then had now represented 13.67% of the
workers were now working in these five counties.
So clearly over time, increasingly workers from
the northern subregion are migrating out to
counties outside the region.
And here are the maps side by side again showing in migration
patterns for 2000, so this is the reverse process showing
where workers are coming from.
So this is the in-flow of workers, or the in migration
of workers into to subregion.
And you can again see a similar trend as clearly the
commuting patterns indicate through repeated maps, that
the commuter sheds are expanding both incoming and
outgoing workers, so consistently across the region
we see a constant trend is that increasing worker mobility
is changing the commuter sheds and employment searches
of workers within the state of Illinois.
This map shows for the northern subregion where
workers are coming from.
And these are the top feeder counties into the southeast
region in terms of where sources of workers are coming from.
And this map, you see some similar counties, but now you
begin to see as well some different counties that you did
when you saw the out migration patterns of commuters.
This map indicates that Shelby, Douglas, Macon, Vigo, and
Effingham counties are the biggest supplier of workers
into the northern region, and these counties represented
4.3% of the workers in 1970, and now they represent
9.05% of the workers in 2000.
So clearly this trend at the subregion level indicates that
worker mobility is increasing both in and out of the
southeast economic development region.
So what do the commuting trends mean?
Workers are increasingly expanding the economic geography
of the region, and as suggested earlier, the in migration and
out migration patterns are clearly changing and expanding.
What does this mean for employees?
In terms of employees, employees are increasingly coming into
competition with workers from outside the region.
Also you could argue that for employers, employers are also
increasingly coming into competition with employers
outside the region as workers have demonstrated increasing
trends to being able to tap into employers and job opportunities
outside the region.
So, clearly it cuts both ways in terms of employees, and
employers are increasingly seeing competition from
outside the region.
Of interesting note, the flow of workers is clearly moving out
faster than the flow coming into the region for work,
as identified with the commuting node study.
Questions for regional leaders, in terms of political and
economic and educational networks in the region,
is this trend truly sustainable in today's environment?
Will the cost of energy, as it is increasing, how will that
effectively impact maybe some of these commuter trends
in the future?
Are we reaching the tipping point of what regional commuters
can economically tolerate for expanding commutes?
So clearly, and also what would the signs look like if we are
approaching this tipping point?
Clearly the region has over time been connected to expanding
commutes, both in and out of the region.
As gas prices continue to go up in 2008, interesting questions
should be posed to regional leaders is how will these trends
effectively impact a region that has more out migration than
in migration, and what would be the implications to workers
that can no longer viably afford longer commutes?
Clearly the stakes are high and the answers to these questions
will be significant to any comphrehensive strategy for
any workforce and economic development future plans.
The following slide is the summary points associated
with this presentation.
Flat to low population growth from 1969 to 2005, other regions
in the state are higher.
Obviously this has direct impact on the ability of the region to
adjust the economy, or inability for that matter, and obviously
will be a question that planners and local leaders will have to
address for any comphrensible long-term planning.
Demographics indicate a decreasing percentage of
the population between 20-55.
Below incomes for the state as well.
How will our aging work force and lower-than-average salaries
impact our comphrehensive regional planning strategies
to recruit new industries or support the existing industries
in the region.
Educational attainment trends are comparable in terms of
high school graduation rates of adults.
However we are significantly below the percentage of adults
with some sort of post-secondary degree.
How will this impact how we support rising educational
trends in many of the existing industries in healthcare,
manufacturing, and TDL, and maybe even new sectors in the
economy that require some sort of post-secondary degree.
This clearly is an important trend that will have to be
addressed for economic progress for the southeast region.
Business patterns indicate that 54% of the southeast
region's economy or payroll is accounted for within the
three targeted industries.
However, 46% is coming from other sectors.
What are these sectors?
What specfically are the educational skills requirements
will be important to address for any comprehensive planning.
In addition, it's important to note that manufacturing still
accounts for a significant portion of the regional payroll,
and the region clearly has to clearly pay close attention to
manufacturing and not give up on a sector of the economy
that accounts for one third of the payroll.
And the recession of 2001 has had lasting effects on the
southeastern region's labor market.
Only five counties had more employees in 2005 versus 2001.
Commuting trends suggest that our labor market is
significantly expanding both incoming and outgoing.
This indicates that workers and employers are increasingly
coming into competition from outside.
So, more importantly as well, increasingly there are more
workers leaving than coming into the region.
So as the region tries to identify trends for the
local economy, one of the clear indicators that the
economy of the region could be lagging behind the state
is the fact that most of the regions, or most of
the counties in the southeast region are supplying workers
and then bringing them in.
And this will clearly be a strategy that will have to be
a part of any comprehensive plan, is to begin to see
the reverse of this, is to be seeing more hubs.
Only four counties in the region were classified as commuting
nodes in 2000, and clearly long-term planning would have
evolved to convert many of these counties into
commuting nodes for employment.