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WHERE THEY ARE TODAY SO THERE'S
A VALUATION COMPONENT TO OUR
DOWNGRADE AND I'LL MENTION THAT
YOU CAN'T PULL UP THESE FORWARD
ESTIMATES ON BLOOMBERG OR ANY OF
THE DATA FEEDS BECAUSE OF THE
FACT THAT THEY DON'T HAVE THEM,
BUT WE ACTUALLY HAVE OUR OWN
ESTIMATES FROM THAT TIME, AND
THAT'S ACTUALLY WHAT WE FOUND.
OTHER THICK THAT I WOULD TELL
YOU IS IF YOU LOOK AT THE STOCKS
ON A FUNDAMENTAL BASIS, THERE'S
ONE VERY IMPORTANT THING THAT
THEY ARE MISSING.
WHAT THEY ARE MISSING IS THE
FACT THAT NEW HOME PRICES HAVE
DRAMATICALLY OUTPACED EXISTING
HOME PRICES, AND THE REASON FOR
THAT IS BECAUSE YOU HAVE A VERY
CONSTRICTED MORTGAGE MARKET
TODAY.
THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO CAN BUY ARE
PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY WELL OFF.
THAT'S GRATED A MAKESHIFT,
POSITIVE MAKESHIFT, BUT IF
EVERYBODY'S HOPES AND DREAMS
ABOUT HOUSING COME TRUE, DRIVING
VALUATIONS ON THE STOCKS, GUESS
WHAT HAPPENS?
YOU'LL GET A LOWER MIX OF BUYERS
COMING INTO THE MARKET WHICH IS
GOING TO BRING NEW HOME PRICES
DOWN, EVEN AS EXISTING HOME
PRICES ARE GOING UP.
WE DON'T THINK PEOPLE HAVE
MODELED THAT CORRECTLY AND
THAT'S ANOTHER REASON WE'VE
DRAWN ATTENTION TO THE
VALUATIONS ON THE STOCKS.
>> OKAY.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR EXPLAINING
THAT.
STEVEN JOINING US THERE FROM
BARCLAYS.
>> SHARES OF APPLE ARE OFF TO A
ROUGH START.
MANY WOULD SAY THE COMPANY IS
WILDLY UNDERVALUED.
NOT THIS GUY.
BILL GUNDERSON, PRESIDENT OF
GUNDERSON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT.
BILL, WHY NOT?
>> WELL, I WOULDN'T SAY THAT
IT'S NOT WILDLY UNDERVALUED.
I -- I REQUIRE THREE
CHARACTERISTICS IN THE STOCKS
THAT I OWN.
I REQUIRE PERFORMANCE OR
MOMENTUM.
I REQUIRE VALUATION, AND I
REQUIRE A HEALTHY STOCK CHART
AND GOOD SENTIMENT.
WHILE APPLE MAY BE UNDERVALUED
RIGHT NOW, IT'S MISSING THE
OTHER TWO COMPONENTS, AND THOSE
ARE VERY IMPORTANT COMPONENTS.
>> IT REQUIRES LONG-TERM
PERFORMANCE, INTERMEDIATE
PERFORMANCE AND SHORT-TERM
PERFORMANCE.
I HAVE A MOMENTUM GRADE OF
F-PLUS.
F-PLUS, ON APPLE RIGHT NOW.
I SOLD APPLE AT 650, AND I'VE
BEEN RIGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
450.
I DON'T CONSIDER APPLE REGAINING
THAT SENTIMENT.
I DON'T SEE THE RELATIVE
SHORT-TERM PERFORMANCE COMING
BACK, AND I DON'T SEE THE CHART
GETTING HEALTHY ANY TIME SOON.
>> SO YOU THINK IT'S STILL
SEARCHING FOR A BOTTOM.
WHERE, IF YOU HAD TO MAKE A
GUESSTIMATE, WHERE DO YOU THINK
THE BOTTOM IS?
HOW MUCH DO YOU THINK IT'S GOING
TO FALL?
>> I THINK APPLE WILL PULL A
NETFLIX, A MUCH FURTHER DROP
THAN APPLE.
NETFLIX FINALLY FOUND A BOTTOM
IN THE $50 AREA OR FALLING FROM
317.
THEY ACTUALLY FOUND A SIDEWAYS
BASE.
NETFLIX ROSE UP TO NUMBER ONE
THREE OR FOUR WEEKS AGO AND
BROKE OUT OF THE BASE TO THE
UPSIDE AND NOW IT'S UP 70% IN
THE LAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS.
APPLE WILL EVENTUALLY FIND THE
BOTTOM.
IT NEEDS TO GO SIDEWAYS PROBABLY
FOR SEVERAL WEEKS OR SEVERAL
MONTHS AND NOW WE'LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE NEGATIVE SENTIMENT
TO ONCE AGAIN HEEL AND WE'LL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE STOCK TO
BREAK OUT TO THE UPSIDE ONCE
AGAIN, AND THINK IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME.
>> BEFORE WE LET YOU GO.
CAN YOU GIVE US A NAME MEETING
ALL YOUR CRITERIA RIGHT NOW?
>> I WROTE ABOUT A STOCK FOR
THESTREET.COM LAST WEEK OR TWO
WEEKS AGO, AND IT HAS ALL THE
CHARACTERISTICS, BREAKING OUT TO
NEW HEYS, OCN, AND IT'S CHEAPER
THAN APPLE.
>> THANKS SO MUCH FOR THE NAME
AND THANKS FOR YOUR THOUGHTS ON
APPLE.