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According to British expert Bill Hayton, the situation in the South China Sea is somewhat
calm at present largely due to calculations from China.
Recently, China and ASEAN have agreed on a framework for the Code of Conduct in the South
China Sea (COC) to prevent conflicts in this strategic waters. But does the draft COC framework
lead to a legally binding agreement to end territorial disputes in the South China Sea?
DW's interview, Asian expert Bill Hayton of consulting firm Chatham House (UK), is skeptical
about the prospects of an early agreement on an acceptable COC. However, Mr. Hayton
emphasized that the COC discussion process is a useful measure of trust. In any case,
China and ASEAN are arguing and arguing over the dispute over the South China Sea better
than nothing.
It is reported that last week, China and ASEAN reached an agreement on a draft framework
for the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea (COC). So what does this process mean?
-Bill Hayton: I do not think this framework will soon lead to anything. But I think this
discussion process is a useful measure of trust. Actually, all the parties sitting around
the round table, talking and arguing with each other ... is much better than not talking.
But there are a number of reasons why I do not think of reaching an agreement (COC binding)
soon. First, I believe that China still wants to build on Scarborough Shoal. And so China
will not sign an agreement that would prevent it from doing so.
Another area of disagreement is that China does not want to be legally bound by an agreement,
but that is what Southeast Asian nations want. For these countries (Southeast Asia), it would
be futile to sign a law that is not legally binding. And they want a kind of tool to control
China's behavior, and Beijing does not want its behavior to be controlled.
Another area of controversy is that China is trying to limit the scope of the
Code of Conduct for the Spratly Islands, while others like Vietnam and the Philippines want
to include the pants Paracel Island and Scarborough Shoal. It seems that until now, nothing has
resolved these disagreements.
- The situation of the Korean Peninsula now seems to attract much of the international
attention and territorial disputes in the South China Sea seem to have disappeared from
the agenda. Please tell me your opinion about this?
- I believe that there are several things happening at the same time. Firstly, China
is carrying out a "seductive attack" in Southeast Asia and does not do any antipathy to its
Southeast Asian neighbors.
Everything seems to have become quieter in almost three years. Since the tensions between
China and Vietnam have escalated after China blatantly set up a controversial drilling
platform in disputed waters (deep within Vietnam's exclusive economic zone and continental shelf
), China seems to have behaved more cautiously. I think Beijing realizes that they have lost
a lot from the incident and since then they have avoided doing anything like that again.
At the same time, China built (illegally) these giant (artificial) islands in the region
(South China Sea). Perhaps that has absorbed all of China's energy. When the construction
of the islands is completed, we can see (China) return to more assertive behavior.
Another thing to note is that China is also in territorial disputes with Japan and focusing
more efforts on the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands chain. Historically, China has never been
active at the same time on both fronts. Normally, when this front is in flames, the other front
is settling down. And that seems to be what is happening now.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress will be held this year and perhaps the Beijing
authorities do not want to destabilize the region ahead of this important event. Moreover,
China is trying to make people support the country's "One Ring Road" (OBOR) initiative.
This is another reason why China may want to remain quiet at the present time.
+ Some people say that China has achieved what it wants in the South China Sea and that
is why the situation is now a bit down. What do you think about this?
-I think this argument is somewhat correct. The Chinese have occupied the Paracels and
they are building bases there.
They are also building artificial islands in the South China Sea, but they are not yet
complete. These will be strong bases.
Many experts say that China also wants to build a base on Scarborough Shoal. And that
would make this shoal the third highest point of China's "iron triangle" in the South China
Sea.