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"Charting the Map"
Presented by Jean-Christophe Victor
News from Bangladesh
Today I'm going to talk about Bangladesh.
It's a little-known country with not much tourism, and only gets media attention when there are typhoons or floods.
But it's a country with a rich history and has become a prime location for new investors.
So let's take a closer look at this country.
Bangladesh is located on the northeastern edge of the Indian subcontinent.
It's located in the Indian Ocean, in the Bay of Bengal.
Its neighbors are India and Burma, and it was formerly part of the British Empire.
The 1947 partition divided the empire into Hindi-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan.
The British Empire was comprised of two blocs.
West Pakistan and East Pakistan, both separated by 1,600 kilometers of Indian territory.
With support from India and the Soviet Union, East Pakistan becomes independent from West Pakistan
and becomes the Republic of Bangladesh in 1971.
Let's find out a little more.
Dhaka is the capital of Bangladesh.
The country is 144 kilometers squared, fours times smaller than France.
There's a large delta formed by the confluence of two rivers from the Himalayas: The Ganges and Brahmaputra.
The delta is one of the most fertile of the planet because of soil deposits from these rivers.
Rice, tea, and jute are the country's main agricultural crops.
Agriculture is favorable due in part from the tropical climate and rain from the monsoons.
Bangladesh also has natural gas reserves that are exploited at 20 different sites.
Natural gas is the main source of energy, but investments haven't been pursued and infrastructure is lacking.
The economy did well in 2012.
Growth for 2012 was at 6.3%, which has been the average for the past 10 years.
Growth is a result of consumer spending, since the country has a population of 161 million inhabitants.
It's the most densely populated country in the world with 1,018 people per square kilometer.
In France, for example, population density is at 119 people per square kilometer.
99% of Bangladeshis are of Bengali descent and 90% are Muslim.
Bangladesh is the 4th largest Muslim country after Indonesia, Pakistan, and India.
The remaining 10% are mostly Hindu.
15% of Bangladeshis live in urban areas with a population greater than 1 million.
Dhaka counted 15.5 million people in 2012 and will have about 23 million in 2025.
It will become the 8th largest urban area in the world.
The cities of Chittagong, Khulna, and Rajshahi will see their populations explode.
Another contributor to the country's growth is the movement of immigrants.
The majority of the 7.5 million Bangladeshis who live outside their country
work in the Arabian peninsula, in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
They send money home to their families.
This money represents 12% of the country's Gross Domestic Product, roughly 10 billion Euros.
A final growth factor is the textile industry.
It's the most important industry and represents 80% of export revenue.
The industry experienced 30% growth in 2011, making the country the 2nd largest
clothing exporter in the world after China and before India.
It's not the country's raw materials, which come from Uzbekistan and India,
that make the textile industry so competitive on the world market.
It's because of the cheap cost of labor.
The average monthly salary in Dhaka is about 38 Euros.
In comparison, the average salary is 157 Euros in Jakarta, 303 Euros in Mumbai, and 404 Euros in Beijing.
Which is why a number of European companies are leaving China to implant themselves in Dhaka.
Chinese companies are also moving their production, following the example of Vancl,
the largest online retail clothing store in China.
The company outsourced its production from the industrial zones in Shanghai to Dhaka.
Business has been good for the textile industry and the country has experienced positive growth for awhile,
but at the expense of deplorable work conditions in the factories.
There have been a number of labor protests at the end of 2012,
ever since 112 people died in the Tazreen Fashions factory fire in the Dhaka suburbs.
It's no surprise then that the country has a bad reputation for building safety in the world.
The Gross National Product per person, on level with consumer spending, is only 1,430 Euros per year.
Which is around the same level as that of North Korea.
Bangladesh is also a corrupt country.
According to Transparency International's 2012 Corruption Perception Index,
Bangladesh is number 26, with 0 being the most corrupt and 100 being the least corrupt.
The objective of the authorities and of the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
is to go from a third-world economy to an emerging one
between now and 2021 to later celebrate its 50 years of independence.
Let's take a closer look at regional politics.
Bangladesh is the only country landlocked by India.
And relations with its historically-significant neighbor have recently improved.
Dhaka and New Delhi have resolved a land dispute regarding the state of west Bengal on the Indian border,
and have also resolved an administrative division over Rangpur on the Bangladeshi side.
Both sides reached an agreement over the administration of the territory in September 2011.
The 55 million people who live in these territories can continue living where they are or freely move to either side.
However, there's still disagreement over the sharing of the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers,
which cross India before flowing into Bangladesh.
India is in a position of control, and the diminution of the rivers' flow upstream is problematic for Dhaka
since half of Bangladeshis work in agriculture.
Thus, Bangladeshi farmers go to India to find arable land for cultivation.
Between 10 and 20 million illegal immigrants live in the neighboring Indian states.
In order to limit a large wave of immigrants,
the central Indian government is building a wall along the Indo-Bangladeshi border:
3,286 kilometers in length, making it the longest wall in the world.
But the border is not well-guarded and is a place for all kinds of trafficking.
Burma is Bangladesh's other neighbor.
There's still tension over the Rohingya, who live between Chittagong and the state of Arakan.
Culturally closer to the Bengalis, this Muslim minority of 800,000 people live in Arakan state, which is majority Buddhist.
Fleeing persecution from Burma that's lasted 20 years,
about 250,000 Rohingya live in the Kutupalong and Nayapara refugee camps in Bangladesh.
Dhaka refuses to register new refugees since the beginning of the 1990s.
The Burmese government has stripped these refugees of their nationality and refuse to repatriate them.
Bangladesh closed its border in the summer of 2012 due to violent opposition towards Burmese Buddhists and Rohingya.
Despite these tensions, Beijing wants to link Chittagong port to China by passing through Burma.
Chinese authorities are financing the port's construction,
because Bangladesh is an alternative trade route in which Beijing can supply itself with oil from the Middle East.
China is also a major investor in Bangladesh's energy and industry.
A final issue I'd like you to consider is that of climate change.
There will be direct consequences for the country because of increased rainfall during monsoon season,
and the acceleration of melting glaciers in the Himalayas.
All of which results in a higher sea level.
This map shows the possible coastline at the end of the 21st century if sea levels rise 1 meter, as estimated by the GEC.
Other studies estimate that 14% of the current population could become climate refugees between 2025 and 2050.
The topic is sensitive for Dhaka, who will see the largest population increase by 2025 in all of Asia.
This would occur as riverbanks weaken and erode.
Bangladesh is faced with the following contradiction:
The country could leave the group of less advanced countries as a result of its increasing growth.
But the country is subject to potential damage from climate change.
Which is why Bangladesh is an important since it's representative of the Asia-Pacific region.
It's surprising to note that most vulnerable and exposed developing countries
haven't come together as a negotiating bloc when it comes to international climate talks,
especially since it concerns their economy, population, stability, and, for some, their survival.
References/Bibliography
There's a new collection called 'L'Asie Immediate' if you want to learn more about Asian geopolitics.
The first volume focuses on the next major Asian player to emerge in 2025.