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Boris Dolgov, senior scientis and, expert on the problems of the Middle East of the Oriental Studies Institute of the RAS
Geneva-2, which is planned to be held, is an important step for a political settlement of the Syrian crisis,
whether it will take place or not.
I think Geneva-2 is a sign that all countries which are somehow involved in the Syrian crisis
and the situation over the Syrian crisis are ready for political dialogue.
But possible definite results of Geneva-2 are thought to be doubtful.
Support for anti-government armed groups in Syria,
there are more than 1000 of them involving more than 70,000 militants, is cynical.
Several tens of thousands of the militants are foreign soldiers of fortune
from Arab countries, the Arab Muslim world, diasporas of Arab Europe, including Russia.
Obviously, armed groups do not compromise, they donít need Geneva-2.
Their motto is the military overthrow of Bashar Assadís regime
and the establishment of an Islamic state on the territory of Syria.
This idea is their keynote.
That is why it is difficult to speak about definite results from Geneva-2.
First of all, it is necessary to stop the military conflict in Syria between anti-government groups and the Syrian Army.
This isnít happening. Even if Geneva-2 is to be held and all the parties are to participate in it,
including Iran, Turkey, representatives of the Syrian opposition, the foreign opposition,
the National Coalition of Revolutionary Opposition Forces and the internal opposition,
and certain decisions are made, it is obvious that the situation
in which the armed conflict continues in Syria wonít provide an opportunity to fulfil the decisions
which would be made at Geneva-2.
I mean the most positive scenario of the conference.
For sure, some of the forces involved in the Syrian conflict will boycott the conference.
These will be armed groups, the National Coalition which still has no united position, and certain persons,
i.e. delegations which can take part in the conference,
but donít agree to the participation of Iran in the conference, even though this is nonsense.
How can any organization say that it doesnít agree to the participation of such a power as Iran?
The participation of Iran, as well as the participation of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, is necessary.
The Syrian crisis cannot be solved without Iran.
This is obvious.
Returning to the possible results of Geneva-2,
I repeat that it is a positive symbol that all parties involved in the Syrian conflict,
I mean foreign forces and states which are connected with the conflict somehow,
agree to holding Geneva-2 and the political process.
Whether it will be held on January 22nd or will be postponed, the question will be discussed.
I think the fact that the question of holding Geneva-2
in which interested superpowers will participate is raised means that we are moving toward a settlement of the Syrian crisis.
Finally, I would like to say that the settlement of the Syrian crisis is a political dialogue,
consent between conflicting parties; but a different solution is possible here.
Probably the Syrian leadership, the Syrian Army will win the war.
This scenario is quite possible ñ military war, the destruction and elimination of armed anti-government groups.
The West is supporting the opposition less actively.
The USA declared that it is stopping military aid to certain groups;
the EU says that it will deprive people who participated in the military conflict in Syria of their European citizenship.
This is a new position, a change of the Western position toward the Syrian crisis.
In conclusion I would like to say that we need a compromise between the superpowers.
Yes, a military victory is possible, but international guarantees are needed for recognition of the victory
and providing further political process.
This is impossible without foreign forces, and a compromise and political steps are needed.
The role of Russia is huge, it is growing in the Middle East.