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Have you ever worried you might lose your job to a robot?
I have. Hari Sreenivasan finds it could well happen with advances in artificial
intelligence
or AI transforming the workforce. That's the latest report in our series on
invention and
innovation, Breakthroughs. All! All
in! In a closely watched brains verses
artificial intelligence poker match held in Pittsburgh earlier this month, humans
pulled off
a slim win over a computer program called
cloud echo. Alright, good job. Good game guys!
Thomas n home a computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon University
created the algorithms that one cloud echoes AI
those algorythms figure out how you should act strategically
how do you avoid hour ordeal with humans trying to defeat you
and how do you defeat human San home predicts cloud ago will be able to beat
its human opponent within 125 years much to the chagrin
up your only the leading poker player in this tournament
when that happens Poker will pretty much be that but putting probe poker players
out of work is not once and hope focuses all is time on
there are other things that cloud eagle can already do better than humans
in my lap we have developed an algorithm more solving
the matching problem for the nationwide he'd make change for
sixty percent of the transplant centers in the US and their
twice a week our algorithms make the transplantation plan for the whole
country
without any manual intervention when they started your Morgan at AI
making those decisions and optimal way matching the right kidney to the right
patient
is one example if an algorithmic artificial intelligence
but there are much larger demonstrations hitting the road quite literally
dialer has developed a prototype dubbed the
Freightliner inspiration truck it's being test-driven
across Nevada the hope is that computer-driven trucks can reduce the
number of accidents there are currently five thousand fatalities a year
involving trucks
drivers would function more like pilots overseeing computerized systems
but it begs the question: what jobs will survive in a new economy
driven by automation Watson when his
katmandu katmandu remember Ken Jennings
the Jeopardy game show champion who lost IBM's Watson in 2011
he says the writing is on the wall here years in a text talk
and I remember standing there behind a podium as I think another insect or I'd
from and you can hear that little d and
and I remember thinking you know this is it I I thought obsolete
I felt like a a Detroit factory worker in the ATC a robot that can now do his
job on the assembly line it was
friggin demoralized it's not just quiz show contestants that are at risk
as more and more jobs are automated Jennings's experience could be a
harbinger of things to come for american workers
that's the argument made in a new book rise other robots
technology and the threat a jobless future by Martin Ford
going forward we may see automation kinda unfolding top-heavy
pattern where a lot of the best chance for once to get impacted
lawyers
pharmacist certain areas and medicine my path ology in radiology
on any kinda white-collar job where you're sitting
at a computer at the deaths what the people you might call off its crown
there with those again be very susceptible to this and there could be
major disruptions to the US economy says Daphne Koller
she's an AI scientist and also president of the massive Online Learning Company
course era we're already starting to see job
that were follow as intelligent being
army would force the computer so for example
a large part of a paralegal stop which is hunting down
the relevant references for a particular problem is something that you would have
thought requires intelligence and
now there pretty good software systems and do not 100 percent to the paralegal
job
eighty to ninety percent will artificial intelligence software
due to the paralegal what the tractor did to the former
it's quite likely that that will happen and I think that there will be entire
job categories
that will go well
we humans have always been resilient with each Industrial Revolution
we've adapted creating new jobs with new technologies
the optimistic perspective is that this will happen here
and that the jobs that will be created wall by nature be higher
and more cognitively interesting jobs that are being on the spectral
on what and artificial intelligence program lil
home leaving the less interesting jobs to robotic helpers like Butler
and automated bellhop cruises the halls at this aloft hotel
is that such a bad thing to russell who directs the AI lab at the University of
California Berkeley
doesn't think so some people think that inevitably
every robot that does any task I is a bad thing
the human race because it could been taking a job way but that isn't
necessarily true
can I also think the robot is making a person more productive
enabling people to do things that McCartney
economically infeasible person plus the robot or
32 robots could do things that would be really useful
a perhaps simple example cleaning up graffiti
in many many cities the graffiti is just left
back is it too expensive but if I had a team a robot's that I could
take around the city with me in point and what needed to be cleaned up
I could get ten times as much done and they will be positions for
graffiti cleaning supervises which didn't exist before
graffiti cleaning supervising robots might exist in the future but
our economy is already involving there are plenty of jobs that didn't exist ten
years ago
that are now in high demand in feels like digital marketing
and data analysis in fact according to McKinsey & Company
the United States faces a shortage updated analysts almost 290,000 people
are needed
to analyze and understand big data the Willows jobs ultimately be filled by
people
or bite deep learning machines deep learning is a new type of me I
that relies on neural networks their computer programs modeled after the
human brain and nervous system
yes has a training pay shipping at the Palo Alto office
have met in mind engineers are using the technology
help computers see by quickly identifying images and placing them in
categories
the software can also understand new ones in the written word
never Richard so sure is cofounder and CT 0 he says the technology will
aid humans not replace them if you can bring
the intelligence up the smartest people in a field
and still at an algorithm with in learning
you could really help a lot of people one example he says is in the field of
medicine
if the best doctors in the world training algorithm
find I'm you know various different
problems in CT scans and xrays mammograms for instance
I'm you could build an algorithm that is almost as good as the best doctors in
the world
human can only look at so many mammograms in their lifetime
an algorithm could look at you know millions and millions and eventually
find subtle things that may have not even been that
obvious to you now so how will society
adapt to a computer intelligence they can do work which
until now only humans could what people have
going from that computers as a PR golden
incredible that ability in peking mine the ability to learn new skills the
ability to
million that unexpected situations and so what we really need to do to help
people become even better at that
just like in a poker game we don't know what the outcome will be
we humans are raising the stakes as we continue to drive advances in
AI technology so we'll be up to us to stay at the table
for the PBS Newshour I'm hari Sreenivasan then you can watch more
stories from our thinking machine series
on our website PBS .org flash news hour