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NARRATOR: AMI Presents...
Welcome to another edition of Oliver's Twist.
I'm Dave Brown, joined by CTV Chief Political Correspondent
Craig Oliver. Hello, Craig.
Hi, Dave.
Well, Craig, Russia and the Ukraine
have been on the forefront of, uhh,
not just the international agenda
but the domestic agenda of late.
And I guess it It's murky waters.
But I suppose the starting question is
"What should the international response be to Russia now?"
Well, that's what world leaders have to decide.
The Prime Minister has been rhetorically very supportive,
very *** the Russians.
Very strong,
as strong as any world leader.
But now he's going to have to back it up
when the time comes for sanctions.
There's not very much Canada can do on its own.
There's a lot we haven't done yet.
I mean, we could pull our ambassador, the
our ambassador out of Russia.
We could pull the Russian ambassador out of here
and declare him persona non grata.
But in terms of economics,
they're about 21 on our list of trading partners.
We don't have important trading relations.
But we do have important reasons
to deal with the Russians on the Arctic.
A lot of big decisions have to be made there.
But, essentially, what has to happen here is for
The U.S. will take the leadership
at the, uhh, at the G7.
My guess is there will be a G7 meeting before too long,
at which, G7 leaders will sit around.
And there's where Canada can be influential
and decide how far they want to go.
I think they'll come up with
some kind of calibrated sanctions.
In other words, "If if you go any further than you go,
"this is what we'll do.
"But if you try to move east into, sort of Ukraine
"Ukrainian-speaking Eastern Ukraine,
then more serious sanctions will take place."
The Russians can be badly hurt by sanctions.
Their economy is a mess. Their growth is 1%.
The rouble isn't worth anything.
And they've got serious economic problems.
But I think there's no doubt
Putin is ready to take whatever costs he has to take.
Despite the economic issues inside of Russia,
they're still a very powerful country.
Does that temper the response
the international community and Canada can levy at Russia?
Uhh, well, of course.
Basically, it rules out a military response
by the West.
Umm, so, that's why You know, they're a nuclear nation.
They still They have violated the sovereignty,
which they did guarantee in a 1994 document.
And in exchange for that agreement, the Ukraine
Ukrainians agreed to get rid of nuclear weapons.
Imagine the situation they'd be in now.
They'd be in a lot better shape if they had nuclear weapons.
But the world would have a lot more to worry about.
But, uhh, at the moment,
the I think this is a fait accompli.
I don't think the
that the Russians will be moving out of, uhh, the peninsula
they're in now, the Crimean peninsula.
They need a warm water port.
They have no other ports that aren't frozen in the winter.
And so, they these are their vital interests.
They ruled Crimea for 168 years.
They gave Crimea to the Ukraine.
The world changed, they want Crimea back.
There is no circumstance under which
Putin would agree to move out.
And so, that's a fait accompli.
The danger now is does he try to go further?
Does he try to go into Eastern European
Eastern Europe? And that could spark a war in the region.
Now, I guess, just at a very broad level,
if Canada were to sort of create
a dissidence in terms of diplomacy,
either expelling their diplomats or taking away our diplomats,
can diplomacy solve geopolitical conflict
or apparent geopolitical conflict?
By the way, I said moving into Eastern Europe.
I meant moving into Eastern Ukraine.
Eastern Ukraine.
Well, there are limits to diplomacy.
But the efforts of diplomacy now, really,
in terms of realpolitik
nobody will say this, leaders won't say it
is to persuade the Russians not to go any farther,
not to move into, as I've just said, into
into Ukrainian-speaking rest of that country.
Where they are now in the Crimea
is 55% to 60% Russian-speaking.
They've had historic rights there, in their view.
This is a vital national interest, in their view.
And so, they're there. They're not leaving.
Now the diplomacy is working on
trying to prevent them going any farther.
Craig, we really appreciate the perspective.
It's certainly a complicated issue.
And we'll be keeping close eye on this one.
For Craig Oliver, I'm Dave Brown.
Thanks so much for stopping by.
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