Tip:
Highlight text to annotate it
X
AND SO, MY FELLOW AMERICANS,
ASK NOT WHAT YOUR COUNTRY CAN DO FOR YOU --
ASK WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR COUNTRY.
Narrator: WHAT IF THOSE WORDS HAD NEVER BEEN SPOKEN?
WHAT IF JOHN KENNEDY'S UNFORGETTABLE INAUGURAL SPEECH
HAD NEVER HAPPENED?
Naftali: ONE OF THE WAYS TO FIGURE OUT HOW A PERSON MATTERED
OR WHY AN EVENT MATTERED IS WHEN YOU SAY,
"WELL, WHAT IF IT DIDN'T HAPPEN?"
Narrator: JOHN KENNEDY WAS ASSASSINATED
BY LEE HARVEY OSWALD IN NOVEMBER OF 1963.
BUT FEW KNOW A DERANGED POLITICAL FANATIC
HAD TARGETED JFK ALMOST THREE YEARS EARLIER.
AND WHAT HE HAD PLANNED
WAS TO BECOME THE FIRST MAJOR SUICIDE BOMBER
IN THE HISTORY OF POLITICAL ASSASSINATION.
Narrator: HE WAS SECONDS AWAY FROM KILLING JOHN KENNEDY.
WHAT IF THE BOMBER HAD SUCCEEDED
AND LYNDON JOHNSON HAD BECOME PRESIDENT IN 1960?
HOW WOULD HE HAVE HANDLED THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS?
Greenfield: YOU HAD THIS OVERARCHING REALITY
OF TWO COUNTRIES ARMED WITH ENOUGH WEAPONS
TO WIPE OUT LIFE ON EARTH.
Narrator: NOW FOR THE FIRST TIME,
THAT ALTERNATE WORLD IS REVEALED
THROUGH ONE OF HISTORY'S MOST STARTLING "WHAT IFs."
WITHOUT JOHN KENNEDY'S LEADERSHIP,
COULD A SERIES OF SHATTERING EVENTS
HAVE LED TO FULL-BLOWN NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE?
-- Captions by VITAC -- www.vitac.com
CAPTIONS PAID FOR BY DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS
DECEMBER 11, 1960.
PRESIDENT-ELECT JOHN F. KENNEDY IS AT HIS FAMILY'S COMPOUND
IN PALM BEACH, FLORIDA,
GETTING READY FOR SUNDAY CHURCH SERVICES.
A MONTH EARLIER, KENNEDY HAD NARROWLY DEFEATED
REPUBLICAN RICHARD NIXON FOR THE PRESIDENCY.
YOU HAD THESE TWO MEN
REPRESENTING THE WORLD WAR II GENERATION
IN THE CLOSET ELECTION WE'VE EVER HAD,
0.1% OF THE POPULAR VOTE DIVIDED THESE CANDIDATES.
Narrator: MANY BELIEVED THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ELECTION
CAME FROM KENNEDY'S SHREWD CHOICE IN A RUNNING MATE,
LYNDON JOHNSON OF TEXAS.
IF JOHN KENNEDY HAD NOT SELECTED
THE MOST POWERFUL DEMOCRATIC POLITICIAN
IN THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME,
HE'S AN ALSO-RAN TO *** NIXON.
Narrator: THE INCOMING KENNEDY ADMINISTRATION PROMISES
A NEW BEGINNING FOR A NEW GENERATION.
FOR A FORWARD-LOOKING AMERICAN PUBLIC,
JFK's FAMILY RADIATES VITALITY.
Naftali: THERE WAS SOMETHING STRIKING
AND ALMOST OTHER-WORLDLY ABOUT THE KENNEDYS --
FAR MORE GLAMOROUS,
FAR MORE YOUTHFUL AND VIGOROUS THAN ANY OTHER POLITICAL COUPLE
THAT HAD EVER REACHED THAT POINT
IN THE AMERICAN SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT.
Narrator: TO HIS SUPPORTERS, JFK WAS THE PERFECT MAN
TO TACKLE THE UNIQUE CHALLENGES FACING THE COUNTRY IN 1960.
FOR THE PAST 13 YEARS,
THE UNITED STATES AND THE SOVIET UNION
HAVE BEEN WAGING A COLD WAR FOR STRATEGIC SUPREMACY.
THERE WAS A PUBLIC IMPRESSION IN THE LATE 1950s
THAT THE SOVIET UNION WAS, IN FACT,
A MORE POWERFUL NATION THAN THE UNITED STATES.
AND AS WE CAME INTO THE 1960s, THERE WAS GENUINE FEAR
IN THE UNITED STATES, IN THE WEST,
THAT SOMEHOW WE HAD FALLEN BEHIND
AND THAT WE WERE GONNA GET OUR BUTTS KICKED
IF THERE WAS EVER A SHOOTING WAR.
Narrator: AND IF FULL-SCALE WAR BREAKS OUT,
THE WHOLE WORLD KNOWS IT WILL BE FOUGHT
WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
THIS WAS A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN PEOPLE HAD TO ACTUALLY CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF A NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE.
Narrator: BUT ON THAT DECEMBER 1960 MORNING
IN PALM BEACH,
ANOTHER THREAT LURKS CLOSER TO HOME.
AT THE KENNEDY COMPOUND,
THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE IS HANGING IN THE BALANCE.
IT'S A SUNDAY MORNING IN PALM BEACH, FLORIDA,
IN A BUCOLIC, BEACH-FRONT AVENUE.
Narrator: JUST OUTSIDE THE KENNEDY RESIDENCE,
A DISGRUNTLED AND DISTURBED MAN NAMED RICHARD PAVLICK
SITS PARKED AT THE CURB,
UNNOTICED BY U.S. SECRET SERVICE.
PAVLICK IS A RETIRED POSTAL WORKER
FROM BELMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE,
LONG KNOWN FOR HIS RADICAL POLITICAL VIEWS.
THIS IS A MAN WHO OPENLY TOLD PEOPLE,
"I'M GONNA DO SOMETHING BIG.
"I'M GOING TO GO AHEAD AND DO SOMETHING
YOU'RE ALL GONNA HEAR ABOUT."
Narrator: JUST DAYS AFTER THE NOVEMBER 8th PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION,
PAVLICK SOLD ALL HIS BELONGINGS
AND STARTED STALKING JFK AROUND THE COUNTRY
FROM ONE KENNEDY FAMILY RESIDENCE TO ANOTHER,
FUELED BY AN INTENSE HATRED OF THE KENNEDY FAMILY.
Greenfield: RICHARD PAVLICK BELIEVED THAT JOE KENNEDY
HAD BOUGHT THE ELECTION OF 1960 AND HAD DONE SO
IN THE SERVICE OF ESSENTIALLY TURNING THE COUNTRY OVER
TO THE CATHOLIC CHURCH.
AND HE WAS DETERMINED TO STOP IT.
Narrator: THE SECRET SERVICE
SHOULD HAVE BEEN WATCHING PAVLICK MORE CLOSELY.
HE HAD SENT A SERIES OF THREATENING POSTCARDS
BACK TO NEW HAMPSHIRE FROM DIFFERENT STOPS ON THE ROAD.
Greenfield: AND YET, ON SUNDAY MORNING,
RICHARD PAVLICK IS PARKED OUTSIDE THE KENNEDY HOME
IN A CAR, HOLDING A SWITCH
CONNECTED TO SEVEN STICKS OF DYNAMITE.
AND NOBODY'S CHECKING HIM.
Narrator: HIS PLAN IS CRUDE BUT DEADLY.
Gresham: HE WAS GONNA BE A SUICIDE BOMBER.
HE WAS GONNA RAM HIS CAR INTO THE LIMOUSINE, DETONATE IT,
AND BLOW THE WHOLE THING TO PIECES,
HIMSELF AS WELL AS JOHN KENNEDY.
Narrator: BUT WHEN KENNEDY WALKS OUT OF THE HOUSE,
PAVLICK SEES THAT HE ISN'T ALONE.
HE'S WITH HIS WIFE, JACQUELINE, AND THEIR TWO YOUNG CHILDREN.
CAROLINE IS A TODDLER
AND JOHN JR. IS LESS THAN A MONTH OLD.
THIS ISN'T WHAT PAVLICK WAS EXPECTING.
Greenfield: IN THE STRANGE, WEIRD, "TWILIGHT ZONE" WORLD
OF RICHARD PAVLICK,
THERE ARE THINGS THAT JUST AREN'T DONE.
AND ONE OF THEM IS TO KILL A MAN
IN THE PRESENCE OF HIS WIFE AND CHILD.
HE COULD KILL JOHN KENNEDY,
BUT WHEN HE SAW JACKIE AND THE KIDS COME OUT
TO JOIN HIM IN THE VEHICLE FOR A TRIP TO CHURCH,
HE JUST COULDN'T DO IT.
Narrator: PAVLICK ABORTS HIS PLAN,
BUT THE UNITED STATES CAME WITHIN SECONDS
OF LOSING JOHN KENNEDY BEFORE HE EVEN TOOK OFFICE.
IT CAME DAMN CLOSE TO HAPPENING
THAT HE NEVER GOT TO BE PRESIDENT AT ALL.
THE SECRET SERVICE CHIEF SAID
WE WERE SECONDS AWAY FROM DISASTER.
Narrator: BUT WHAT IF ONE SMALL ELEMENT UNFOLDED DIFFERENTLY
ON THAT SUNDAY MORNING IN PALM BEACH?
FREQUENTLY, IT'S THE LITTLE DETAILS --
WEATHER, CLOTHING,
WHETHER SOMEONE HAD A DECENT MEAL
A FEW DAYS BEFORE --
THAT CAN RADICALLY CHANGE THE COURSE OF HISTORY
WHEN EVERYBODY IS THINKING IT'S A DONE DEAL.
Narrator: WHAT IF PAVLICK SEES JOHN KENNEDY LEAVE THE HOUSE,
BUT HIS WIFE AND CHILDREN AREN'T BY HIS SIDE?
A SERIES OF EVENTS WOULD BE SET INTO MOTION
THAT COULD CHANGE THE WORLD FOREVER.
Greenfield: RICHARD PAVLICK GUNS THE MOTOR,
DRIVES HIS CAR INTO THE BACK OF THE SECRET SERVICE CAR,
TRIGGERS WHAT THE SECRET SERVICE CHIEF LATER DESCRIBES AS
"ENOUGH DYNAMITE TO LEVEL A SMALL MOUNTAIN."
YOU WOULD HAVE HAD DEBRIS AND SHRAPNEL
AND, FRANKLY, FLAMING GASOLINE GOING EVERYWHERE.
THE PRESS POOL, WHICH IS NEARBY WATCHING HIM,
WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN DECIMATED.
Greenfield: AND JOHN KENNEDY IS BLOWN TO BITS.
THIS MAN WHO BARELY A MONTH EARLIER
HAS JUST BEEN NARROWLY ELECTED PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
IS DEAD.
Narrator: IF PAVLICK'S DEADLY PLAN HAD SUCCEEDED,
THE KENNEDY LEGACY WE KNOW SO WELL
WOULD NEVER EXIST.
Naftali: KENNEDY HASN'T GIVEN THE INAUGURAL ADDRESS.
HE'S NOT TALKING ABOUT THE TORCH
BEING PASSED TO A NEW GENERATION.
HE HASN'T TOLD THE WORLD THAT THE UNITED STATES
WILL BEAR ANY BURDEN OR PAY ANY PRICE.
Narrator: AND BECAUSE KENNEDY WOULDN'T BE THERE
TO GUIDE THE NATION THROUGH THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS...
THE COST OF FREEDOM IS ALWAYS HIGH,
BUT AMERICANS HAVE ALWAYS PAID IT.
Narrator: ...THE WORLD COULD BE THROWN INTO TOTAL CHAOS.
THERE WAS A VERY REAL SENSE THAT WE MIGHT BE SOON IMMERSED
IN A GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR
THAT WOULD WIPE OUT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE.
THIS WASN'T SOME BIT OF PARANOIA.
THIS WAS A GENUINE POSSIBILITY.
[ SIREN WAILS ]
Narrator: COMING UP NEXT...
WHAT IF A DIFFERENT PRESIDENT
WITH A VERY DIFFERENT TEMPERAMENT
HAD FACED DOWN THE RUSSIANS?
Gresham: UNFORTUNATELY IN THIS SCENARIO, THERE ARE NO COOLER HEADS.
EVERYBODY'S JUST GETTING MADDER AND MADDER
AND THE CASUALTIES ARE ESCALATING MASSIVELY
WITH EACH ACTION.
[ BOMB WHISTLING ]
Narrator: IN A LITTLE-KNOWN TWIST OF HISTORY,
JOHN F. KENNEDY WAS NEARLY ASSASSINATED
A MONTH BEFORE HIS INAUGURATION.
ONE OF THE MORE REMARKABLE THINGS
ABOUT THE RICHARD PAVLICK STORY
IS HOW FEW PEOPLE KNOW ABOUT IT, EVEN HISTORIANS.
Narrator: WHAT IF WOULD-BE SUICIDE BOMBER RICHARD PAVLICK HAD SUCCEEDED
AND PRESIDENT-ELECT KENNEDY
WAS ENGULFED IN A MASSIVE EXPLOSION?
IN THAT ALTERNATE REALITY,
THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT WOULD CHANGE FOREVER.
Greenfield: YOU'RE KIND OF ANTICIPATING
THIS YOUNG, EXCITING, ATTRACTIVE MAN
COMING INTO THE WHITE HOUSE,
AND NOW HE'S GONE.
NOW HE'S OUT OF THE PICTURE.
Narrator: FOR THE FIRST TIME IN U.S. HISTORY,
THE PRESIDENT-ELECT HAS DIED BEFORE TAKING OFFICE.
IN A FLURRY OF POLITICAL WRANGLING,
VICE PRESIDENT-ELECT LYNDON JOHNSON
IS ELECTED PRESIDENT BY THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
Gresham: IT WOULD BE LIKE GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING
FROM ABOUT FIVE DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS FOR HIM.
Narrator: IN AN INSTANT,
PRESIDENT JOHNSON WOULD BE SADDLED
WITH THE FORMIDABLE TASK OF TAKING OVER FOR JOHN KENNEDY,
WHO PERSONIFIED YOUTH AND NEW IDEAS.
Naftali: IT'S A VERY, VERY HARD CHALLENGE FOR LYNDON JOHNSON,
AND JOHNSON'S VERY SMART.
AND THOUGH HE'S ENORMOUSLY SELF-CONFIDENT,
HE UNDERSTANDS MANY OF HIS OWN WEAKNESSES.
Gresham: HE NEVER HAD ANY DELUSIONS OF BEING LOVED
BY THE UNITED STATES' POPULATION.
AMERICA LOVED THE KENNEDYS.
THEY LOVED THE IDEA OF THE KENNEDYS.
NOBODY EVER LOVED THE IDEA OF LYNDON JOHNSON.
Narrator: AFTER 24 YEARS IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE,
LBJ WAS RENOWNED AS A MASTER LEGISLATOR.
JOHNSON BROUGHT TO THE WHITE HOUSE
A COMMITMENT TO MAKE LIFE BETTER FOR AMERICANS
THAT WAS THE STRONGEST ANY PRESIDENT HAS EVER BROUGHT.
Gresham: THIS IS A GUY WHO WOULD COME INTO THE SENATE CHAMBER
AND YELL AT THE TOP OF HIS LUNGS,
"LET'S GO AND PASS SOME LEGISLATION!
LET'S DO SOMETHING!"
Narrator: BUT JOHNSON CAME ACROSS
AS AN OLDER GENERATION OF LEADER.
Greenfield: JOHNSON WAS A MAN OF CUSTOM-MADE SUITS AND CUFF LINKS
AND A WHOLE WORLD OF THE ELDERS.
THERE'S JUST NO WAY THAT YOU SEE LYNDON JOHNSON
AS THE FACE AND VOICE OF A NEW FRONTIER.
Narrator: AND FAR MORE PERILOUS ISSUES WOULD DOG HIS PRESIDENCY.
SINCE THE END OF WORLD WAR II,
THE COLD WAR HAS BEEN FUELED BY MUTUAL ANXIETY AND MISTRUST.
Naftali: WITH THE SOVIET LAUNCH OF SPUTNIK IN 1957,
AMERICANS HAD TO COME TO TERMS WITH THE FACT
THAT THE SOVIETS WERE ABLE TO BUILD ROCKETS
THAT COULD SEND A NUCLEAR WARHEAD
AGAINST AN AMERICAN CITY.
THAT CHANGED EVERYTHING.
THAT CREATED A SENSE OF ANXIETY IN THE UNITED STATES
THAT AMERICANS HAD NEVER FELT BEFORE.
Narrator: BY THE EARLY '60s,
BOTH SUPERPOWERS HAD ENOUGH NUCLEAR WEAPONS
TO KILL MILLIONS OF INNOCENT PEOPLE.
Greenfield: IT MEANT THAT CITIZENS
THOUSANDS OF MILES FROM A BATTLEFIELD
COULD BE SUBJECT TO ANNIHILATION.
A THIRD WORLD WAR HAD AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL
TO WIPE OUT MUCH, IF NOT MOST, OF HUMAN LIFE.
THE U.S. ALREADY HAD STRATEGIC NUCLEAR MISSILES
IN EUROPE POINTED AT THE SOVIET UNION.
AND IN JUNE 1960,
THEY DEPLOYED JUPITER MISSILES IN TURKEY,
CONFIRMING SOVIET PREMIER NIKITA KHRUSHCHEV'S WORST FEARS.
Greenfield: KHRUSHCHEV'S NOTION WAS,
"HOW WOULD YOU LIKE IT IF WE DID THIS TO YOU?
"HOW WOULD YOU LIKE IT IF WE PUT NUCLEAR MISSILES
"ON YOUR DOORSTEP?
THIS IS A THREAT TO US."
HE SAW IT AS AN AGGRESSIVE ACT.
Gresham: NOW, THE FUNNY THING IS, OF COURSE,
THERE WERE MANY MORE MISSILES ACROSS THE OCEAN IN AMERICA,
BUT IT WAS THE FACT THAT RIGHT NEXT DOOR TO KHRUSHCHEV,
THERE WERE THESE JUPITER MISSILES
THAT HE SAW AS A COCKED GUN AT HIS HEAD.
AND HE DIDN'T LIKE THAT.
Narrator: LOOKING FOR A WAY TO TILT THE BALANCE OF POWER
BACK IN HIS FAVOR,
PREMIER KHRUSHCHEV SAW OPPORTUNITY
IN THE SMALL CARIBBEAN NATION OF CUBA,
JUST 90 MILES FROM THE COAST OF FLORIDA.
Greenfield: IT WAS A HUGE CONCERN TO THE SOVIET UNION
THAT IT BE SEEN AS MILITARILY EQUIVALENT TO THE UNITED STATES.
CUBA WAS A NATURAL AIRCRAFT CARRIER
LYING RIGHT ASTRIDE THE SOUTHERN UNITES STATES.
THIS WAS AN OPPORTUNITY
IN THE CHESS BOARD OF STRATEGIC POWER
TO PUT SOME VERY, VERY IMPORTANT PIECES
RIGHT NEXT TO THE ENEMY.
Narrator: CUBAN RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. DETERIORATED
WHEN FIDEL CASTRO TURNED TO THE SOVIET UNION
AS A NEW TRADING PARTNER AND ALLY.
Greenfield: BY 1960, FIDEL CASTRO AND THE UNITED STATES
WERE GETTING TO THE POINT OF BEING SWORN ENEMIES
AND MORE TO THE POINT, THE UNITED STATES WAS DECIDING,
"WE GOT TO GET RID OF THIS GUY."
Narrator: THE C.I.A. FORMULATED CLASSIFIED PLANS
TO REMOVE CASTRO FROM POWER
BY TRAINING AND SUPPORTING A REBEL ARMY TO INVADE CUBA.
Gresham: IT BASICALLY INVOLVED TRAINING A BRIGADE
OF ABOUT 1,300 CUBAN EXILES
IN AN ATTEMPT TO GO AND TRY TO OVERTHROW
THE REGIME OF CASTRO IN EARLY 1961.
Narrator: IN OUR ALTERNATE SCENARIO,
PRESIDENT JOHNSON APPROVES THE C.I.A.'S PLAN,
TODAY KNOWN AS THE BAY OF PIGS INVASION.
BUT THE APRIL 1961 CUBAN OPERATION
IS A FAILURE ON ALL FRONTS.
Greenfield: THE BOATS WERE CHEWED UP
TRYING TO HIT THE BEACHES.
THE SORTIES ATTEMPTING TO WIPE OUT
THE CUBAN AIR FORCE DIDN'T WORK.
IT WAS A COMPLETE ***-UP FROM START TO FINISH.
Narrator: ALMOST 1,200 AMERICAN-TRAINED CUBAN EXILES ARE CAPTURED
AS CASTRO'S FORCES QUICKLY PUT DOWN
THE POORLY PLANNED AND EXECUTED REBELLION.
THE BOTCHED OPERATION WAS A MAJOR EMBARRASSMENT
TO PRESIDENT JOHNSON AND HIS ADVISORS.
IN REALITY, JOHN KENNEDY'S ADMINISTRATION
WAS ALSO BLEMISHED BY THE BAY OF PIGS INVASION.
BUT AS A STUDENT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS,
JFK TENDED TO RELY ON HIS OWN IDEAS
WHEN IT CAME TO FOREIGN POLICY.
Greenfield: JOHN KENNEDY HAD A MIX OF PRUDENCE
AND A KIND OF UNUSUAL VISION FOR A POLITICIAN.
HE HAD A MUCH DEEPER UNDERSTANDING, I THINK,
OF HISTORY AND THE WAY NATIONS WORKED
THAN MOST POLITICIANS.
Narrator: LBJ, ON THE OTHER HAND, COMES TO THE PRESIDENCY
AS A CAREER LEGISLATOR.
Naftali: JOHNSON HAD SCHOOLED HIMSELF
IN THE INTRICATE DETAILS OF CONGRESS.
THAT IS A LIFETIME'S WORK.
BUT IT MEANT THAT HE DIDN'T SPEND TIME
LEARNING ABOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD.
AND SO, WHEN HE BECOMES PRESIDENT,
HE DOESN'T HAVE A SENSE OF THE REST OF THE WORLD.
Narrator: TO AVOID MILITARY BLUNDERS IN THE FUTURE,
PRESIDENT JOHNSON MIGHT RELY LESS ON HIS INTUITION
AND MORE ON THE GENERALS IN CHARGE OF THE ARMED FORCES.
Naftali: LBJ HAD ENORMOUS RESPECT FOR THE U.S. MILITARY
AND FOR THE JUDGMENT OF THE U.S. MILITARY,
AND HE WAS NOT IN A POSITION TO SUBSTITUTE
HIS OWN JUDGMENT FOR THAT OF THE U.S. MILITARY.
Narrator: AFTER THE BAY OF PIGS,
TENSIONS BETWEEN THE SUPERPOWERS WOULD CONTINUE TO MOUNT.
Greenfield: YOU HAD THIS OVERARCHING REALITY
OF TWO COUNTRIES ARMED WITH ENOUGH WEAPONS
TO WIPE OUT LIFE ON EARTH OR SOMETHING CLOSE TO IT.
Narrator: THEN IN OCTOBER 1962,
NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR McGEORGE BUNDY
KNOCKS ON PRESIDENT JOHNSON'S BEDROOM DOOR
CARRYING A NUMBER OF AERIAL SURVEILLANCE PHOTOGRAPHS.
Greenfield: McGEORGE BUNDY WALKS INTO LYNDON JOHNSON'S BEDROOM
WITH THESE PICTURES UNDER HIS ARM.
AND JOHNSON SAYS TO HIM, "HOW BAD IS IT?"
AND HE SAYS,
"I'M AFRAID IT DOESN'T GET ANY WORSE, MR. PRESIDENT."
Narrator: THE PHOTOS CONTAIN SOLID EVIDENCE
THAT THE SOVIETS ARE MOVING STRATEGIC MISSILES INTO CUBA,
MISSILES WITH NUCLEAR WARHEADS
CAPABLE OF EXPLODING OVER WASHINGTON, D.C.,
IN 13 MINUTES.
Narrator: IN OUR ALTERNATE WORLD,
PRESIDENT-ELECT JOHN KENNEDY
WAS ASSASSINATED IN DECEMBER 1960
AND LYNDON JOHNSON ASSUMED THE PRESIDENCY.
TWO YEARS LATER,
AN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS LOOMS FOR HIS ADMINISTRATION
WHEN U-2 SPY PHOTOS CONFIRM
THAT THE SOVIETS ARE SHIPPING BALLISTIC MISSILES INTO CUBA.
Gresham: THE PROMISE HAD ALWAYS BEEN FROM THE RUSSIANS
THEY WOULD NOT PUT "OFFENSIVE," I.E. THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS,
BALLISTIC MISSILES, AND SUCH, INTO CUBA.
THIS WAS A CLEAR VIOLATION OF THAT PROMISE.
Narrator: THE SOVIET INTERMEDIATE-RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES
COULD HIT TARGETS ON THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND GULF OF MEXICO IN A MATTER OF MINUTES.
Naftali: SO, EVEN THOUGH THE MISSILE DEPLOYMENT
WAS AT AN EARLY STAGE,
THE UNITED STATES KNEW WHAT WAS COMING.
AND THIS GAVE PRESIDENT JOHNSON THE OPPORTUNITY
TO DEAL WITH THE MISSILES BEFORE THEY WERE OPERATIONAL.
Narrator: LBJ'S ADVISORS HOLD STRONG OPINIONS
ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE SOVIET THREAT.
NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR McGEORGE BUNDY
FAVORS A POLITICAL SOLUTION, MAYBE A BLOCKADE OF THE ISLAND.
Gresham: AND ON THE OTHER SIDE, YOU HAVE THE WAR HAWKS,
THE DEAN ACHESONS, THE CURTIS LeMAYS,
MEMBERS OF THE JOINT CHIEF
WHO JUST SAW THE SOLUTION REAL SIMPLY AS,
"LET'S GO OUT, LET'S BOMB THESE THINGS,
WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT AFTERWARDS."
Narrator: FOR PRESIDENT JOHNSON,
THE PATH AHEAD WOULD BE A CLEAR ONE.
JOHNSON BASICALLY BELIEVED THAT THE WAY YOU STAND UP
TO THE SOVIET UNION IS THE WAY YOU STAND UP TO A BULLY.
HE SAID THAT IN SO MANY WORDS.
YOU SHOW THEM YOU'RE TOUGH,
YOU SHOW THEM YOU'RE WILLING TO USE FORCE, THEY'LL BACK DOWN.
Narrator: JOHNSON WILL PUBLICLY ANNOUNCE
THE DISCOVERY OF OFFENSIVE MISSILES IN CUBA.
THEN IF THE SOVIETS REFUSE TO BUDGE,
U.S. FIGHTER-BOMBERS WILL MAKE A LIMITED SURGICAL STRIKE
ON THE MISSILE SITES.
Naftali: JOHNSON HAD BEEN PUBLIC
ABOUT HOW THE SOVIETS COULDN'T PUT MISSILES IN CUBA.
THE SOVIETS HAD DENIED THEY WERE DOING THIS,
AND NOW THEY WERE DOING IT.
IF THE UNITED STATES DID NOT WIPE OUT THOSE MISSILE BASES,
WHO WOULD BELIEVE AMERICA'S WORD IN THE FUTURE?
Narrator: PRESIDENT JOHNSON SEES A SURGICAL AIR STRIKE
AS A PRUDENT AND MEASURED RESPONSE TO SOVIET PROVOCATION.
WE'RE NOT GOING TO INVADE CUBA.
WE'RE NOT GONNA DO SATURATION BOMBING.
WE'RE CERTAINLY NOT GONNA HIT THE SOVIET UNION,
BUT WE GOT TO TAKE THESE MISSILES OUT.
Naftali: JOHNSON IS LUCKY, IN A SENSE.
HE CAUGHT THE SOVIETS AT THEIR GAME
BEFORE THEY HAD FINISHED THE OPERATION.
THIS WAS THE TIME TO ACT.
Narrator: OF COURSE, THE REAL HISTORY TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY.
JOHN KENNEDY'S DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
WAS NOTHING LIKE JOHNSON'S.
Greenfield: PRESIDENT JOHN KENNEDY
WOULD VERY LIKELY HAVE ASKED MUCH MORE SKEPTICAL QUESTIONS.
HE NEVER LIKED TO MAKE A DECISION TILL HE HAD TO.
"HOW CAN WE DEFER MILITARY ACTION?
WHAT OTHER ALTERNATIVES DO WE HAVE?"
Narrator: KENNEDY WANTED TO BE SURROUNDED BY DIFFERENT OPINIONS.
HE INVITED DISSENT.
Greenfield: JOHNSON WAS THE REVERSE.
JOHNSON DID NOT LIKE DISSENT. HE DIDN'T TOLERATE IT.
HE WANTED CONSENSUS,
AND THAT LEADS TO VERY DIFFERENT DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES.
Narrator: JFK AT FIRST FAVORED AN AIR STRIKE,
BUT HE ULTIMATELY TURNED AWAY
FROM THE MORE HAWKISH VOICES IN THE ROOM
AND DECIDED ON A NAVAL QUARANTINE OF CUBA
TO BUY TIME.
Naftali: HE KEPT THINKING, "THIS BLOCKADE GIVES ME TIME
"AND IT GIVES THE SOVIETS A CHANCE TO TAKE A DEEP BREATH
"AND THINK ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES
OF WHAT THEY'VE DONE."
KENNEDY, BY NOT CHOOSING FORCE,
GAVE KHRUSHCHEV AND HIS ASSOCIATES
BREATHING SPACE TO STEP BACK FROM THE BRINK.
Narrator: BUT IN OUR ALTERNATE SCENARIO,
RICHARD PAVLICK KILLED JOHN KENNEDY
WITH A SUICIDE BOMB.
LYNDON JOHNSON IS PRESIDENT NOW,
AND HE AND HIS ADVISORS HAVE SETTLED
ON A LIMITED SURGICAL STRIKE OF THE CUBAN MISSILE SITES.
HE FELT HE HAD NO CHOICE BUT A SURGICAL STRIKE,
AND HE BELIEVED THE AIR FORCE COULD DO IT.
Narrator: BUT THERE'S CRITICAL INFORMATION THAT NO ONE IS AWARE OF.
Greenfield: LOOK AT WHAT THE UNITED STATES DOESN'T KNOW.
IT DOESN'T KNOW THAT THERE ARE
THESE ENORMOUS NUMBERS OF SOVIET TROOPS
WHO HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH THESE MISSILES.
Narrator: THE C.I.A. HAD DRASTICALLY UNDERESTIMATED
THE NUMBER OF SOVIET TROOPS IN CUBA.
INSTEAD OF 12,000 AS GUESSED,
THERE WERE MORE THAN 40,000 SOVIET SOLDIERS
SUPPORTING THE MISSILE OPERATION.
Gresham: THE SIMPLE FACT WAS,
ANY AIR STRIKE WAS GONNA BE BRUTAL,
THERE WAS GONNA BE MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE,
HUGE CASUALTIES,
AND IT WAS GONNA KILL RUSSIANS.
Narrator: ON TOP OF THAT, THE AMERICANS DIDN'T KNOW
THAT ALONG WITH THE LONG-RANGE STRATEGIC MISSILES,
DOZENS OF TACTICAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
HAD BEEN SHIPPED TO CUBA.
TACTICAL NUKES ARE DESIGNED TO BE USED ON A BATTLEFIELD.
IN THIS CASE, THEY COULD RESPOND TO AN AIR STRIKE
WITH DEVASTATING POWER
AND ALMOST 10,000 AMERICAN TROOPS
ARE STATIONED AT GUANTANAMO BAY.
Gresham: THEY HAVE THE ABILITY
WITH VERY FEW OF THESE WEAPONS EVEN BEING USED
TO TURN GUANTANAMO INTO A GLOWING GLASS PARKING LOT,
THE INVASION BEACHES ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
INTO KILLING ZONES
THAT WOULD MAKE OMAHA BEACH LOOK LIKE A TEA PARTY.
Narrator: IN OUR ALTERNATE WORLD,
JOHNSON DRAFTS A COMMUNIQUé TO KHRUSHCHEV
STATING THAT AN AMERICAN AIR STRIKE IS COMING
UNLESS THE OFFENSIVE MISSILES ARE REMOVED IN 24 HOURS.
BUT BEFORE HE CAN SEND THE MESSAGE,
A DISPATCH ARRIVES FROM THE AIR FORCE.
WORD COMES IN THAT AN AIR FORCE U-2 HAS BEEN SHOT DOWN
BY A SURFACE-TO-AIR MISSILE OVER CUBA.
AND THIS JUST BRINGS EVERYTHING TO A CRASHING HALT.
Narrator: AND THE PILOT, RUDOLF ANDERSON, IS PRESUMED DEAD.
THEY KNOW IT WAS SHOT DOWN, AND THEY DEDUCE
IT MUST HAVE BEEN SHOT DOWN BY AN SA-2 MISSILE
BECAUSE U-2s FLY WAY TOO HIGH
FOR ANY OTHER TYPE OF WEAPON SYSTEM TO HAVE HIT IT.
AND THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT THIS IS NOT AN ACCIDENT,
THAT THE SOVIETS DID THIS DELIBERATELY.
Narrator: FOR PRESIDENT JOHNSON, THE DOWNING OF THE U-2 CONFIRMS
THAT IT'S TIME TO ACT DECISIVELY.
FOR JOHNSON, THE SHOOTING DOWN OF THE U-2
WAS ONE MORE REASON TO MOVE AHEAD
AND GET THIS PROBLEM SOLVED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.
Narrator: BUT AT THIS POINT IN THE CRISIS,
NEITHER SIDE WOULD HAVE A CLEAR UNDERSTANDING
OF WHAT THE OTHER IS DOING
OR HOW DANGEROUS THE STAKES ARE.
THE EQUIPMENT AND THE ABILITY TO CREATE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION
WAS WAY AHEAD OF THE THINKING.
SO, YOU HAD MEN WITH THE ABILITY TO DESTROY EACH OTHER
WITHOUT ANY OF THE WISDOM REQUIRED
TO PREVENT IT FROM HAPPENING.
Narrator: COMING UP...
WHAT IF A DIFFERENT PRESIDENT AND A MISUNDERSTANDING
TRIGGERED THE START OF A GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR?
Gresham: THIS WOULD HAVE GONE AND LAID WASTE
TO THE ENTIRE AREA,
GUANTANAMO WOULD HAVE BEEN ERADICATED
FROM THE FACE OF THE PLANET.
Narrator: AN AMERICAN U-2 SPY PLANE
HAS BEEN SHOT DOWN OVER CUBA BY A SOVIET MISSILE.
IN OUR ALTERNATE REALITY, LYNDON JOHNSON BECOMES PRESIDENT
AFTER JOHN F. KENNEDY WAS ASSASSINATED
BEFORE EVEN TAKING OFFICE.
AND NOW JOHNSON'S ADMINISTRATION ASSUMES THE WORST ABOUT CUBA.
Gresham: FOR US, GOING AND SHOOTING DOWN A U-2
MEANS THAT MAYBE THEY'RE GETTING READY TO ATTACK
BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT US MONITORING THEM
AS THEY BUILD UP AND GET THE MISSILES READY TO FIRE.
Narrator: FOR JOHNSON, KHRUSHCHEV'S AGGRESSIVENESS
IS ONE MORE REASON TO LAUNCH AN AIR STRIKE.
BUT HE HAS NO IDEA
OF THE REAL REASON THE U-2 WAS SHOT DOWN.
SOVIET COMMANDER IN THE FIELD,
PERHAPS BECAUSE HE HAD THE JITTERS,
PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE WHOLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE CUBANS WERE ON EDGE, AND THE SOVIETS WERE ON EDGE,
HE SAW THIS U-2 AS THE BEGINNING OF AN INVASION ARMADA
AND HE SHOT IT DOWN WITHOUT AUTHORIZATION.
Narrator: IT LATER BECAME CLEAR
THAT KHRUSHCHEV NEVER KNEW ABOUT AND WOULD NEVER HAVE APPROVED
SUCH A PROVOCATIVE ACT.
SOMETIMES THE FIELD COMMANDERS GET TWITCHY,
ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU'RE RIGHT ON THE BRINK OF NUCLEAR WAR.
AND THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED HERE.
Narrator: BUT THE WHITE HOUSE ASSUMES
THAT KHRUSHCHEV IS BEHIND THE U-2 DOWNING
AND PRESIDENT JOHNSON IS ABOUT TO AUTHORIZE
AN AIR STRIKE IN RESPONSE.
IN REALITY, THE KENNEDY ADMINISTRATION,
AT THE SAME MOMENT IN THE MISSILE CRISIS,
ACTED DIFFERENTLY.
AFTER THE DOWNING OF THE U-2,
THE JOINT CHIEFS DEMANDED RETALIATION.
BUT THE PRESIDENT SAW THINGS ANOTHER WAY.
Greenfield: WHEN THE U-2 WAS DOWNED, WHAT KENNEDY SAYS IS,
"WE DON'T REALLY KNOW WHO DID THIS.
"MAYBE THIS WAS A CUBAN.
"MAYBE THIS WASN'T A SOVIET ATTEMPT
"TO START SOMETHING.
"LET'S BE CALM ABOUT THIS.
DON'T DO ANYTHING UNTIL WE HAVE TO."
THERE'S ALWAYS THIS KIND OF FEELING --
WE'VE GOT TO FIND A WAY TO GIVE KHRUSHCHEV RUNNING ROOM.
Narrator: THAT'S BECAUSE JFK SUSPECTED
THE MISSILE WAS LAUNCHED WITHOUT KHRUSHCHEV'S OKAY.
Gresham: HE REALLY DOESN'T WANT TO GET INTO A SHOOTING WAR
OVER ONE SHOT-DOWN AIRPLANE AND ONE DEAD AMERICAN PILOT.
HE WANTED TO FIND A WAY
TO NOT GO AND FIRE THAT FIRST SHOT
THAT MIGHT START WORLD WAR III.
Narrator: AND HE HAD AN INSTINCTIVE AWARENESS
OF HOW MUCH THE WHITE HOUSE MIGHT ACTUALLY NOT KNOW.
KENNEDY WAS THE KIND OF GUY
WHO WOULD HAVE TRIED TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WENT WRONG,
WHY DID PEOPLE MAKE ALL THESE ASSUMPTIONS.
HIS BIG NOTION, ONE OF HIS CENTRAL IDEAS,
WAS MISCALCULATION, MISUNDERSTANDING.
THINGS WERE HAPPENING TOO FAST, TOO CLOSE TOGETHER,
TOO VIOLENTLY TO REALLY BE ABLE TO KNOW,
"AM I DOING WHAT I REALLY SHOULD?
IS THIS GOOD INFORMATION I'M WORKING WITH?"
Naftali: HE RECOGNIZED,
"WE'RE NOT IN CONTROL OF THIS EVENT.
"WE'RE NOT IN CONTROL OF WHAT'S GOING ON HERE.
"IF I DON'T MOVE FAST,
"IF I DON'T FIND A WAY TO GRASP THE NETTLE
"AND SETTLE THIS DIPLOMATICALLY,
"NEITHER THE KREMLIN NOR THE WHITE HOUSE
WILL BE ABLE TO PREVENT WAR."
Narrator: BUT FOR LYNDON JOHNSON'S ADMINISTRATION,
EVENTS MIGHT TAKE A DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT COURSE.
Naftali: JOHNSON DID NOT HAVE THE SUBTLE VIEW
OF THE SOVIET UNION THAT KENNEDY DID.
JOHNSON DIDN'T SEE THE PROBLEM
AS A SERIES OF MISUNDERSTANDINGS.
WHAT HE BELIEVED IN
WAS THE IMPORTANCE OF JUST STANDING UP TO THEM.
THERE'S NOTHING IN JOHNSON'S PERSONALITY
TO MAKE YOU BELIEVE
THAT HE IS GONNA RESIST PRESSURE FROM THE MILITARY
AND THAT HE IS GOING TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT.
Narrator: JOHNSON AGREES WITH THE GENERALS AROUND THE TABLE
AND GIVES THE ORDER FOR A LIMITED SURGICAL STRIKE
ON THE CUBAN MISSILE SITES.
U.S. FIGHTERS ATTACK THE LAUNCH SITES
AT SAN CRISTOBAL AND REMEDIOS.
Swedin: THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN THOUSANDS OF SORTIES
OVER A SEVERAL-DAY PERIOD
IN ORDER TO OBTAIN AERIAL SUPERIORITY OVER THE ISLAND
AND DESTROY THE SS-4 AND THE SS-5 LAUNCH SITES.
Narrator: THE SOVIET MISSILE SITES ARE DESTROYED,
BUT THERE'S A PROBLEM.
THE AIR FORCE ONLY ATTACKED THE MISSILES THEY KNEW ABOUT.
Naftali: THE TARGETS THE U.S. AIR FORCE SOUGHT TO DESTROY,
IT DESTROYED.
BUT THE U.S. AIR FORCE AND THE C.I.A.
DID NOT KNOW ABOUT THE TACTICAL NUCLEAR MISSILES.
AND THEY WEREN'T TARGETED.
AND SO, THEY WERE STILL THERE WHEN THE DUST SETTLED.
Narrator: HUNDREDS OF SOVIET TROOPS ON THE GROUND
HAVE BEEN KILLED
AND SOVIET COMMANDERS IN CUBA
WOULD THINK THE AIR STRIKE MEANS ONLY ONE THING --
A FULL-SCALE INVASION IS ON THE WAY.
Greenfield: THE PROBLEM IS THAT, IF YOU'RE ON THE GROUND IN CUBA,
IT'S A LITTLE HARD TO DISTINGUISH
BETWEEN A SURGICAL STRIKE AND AN ALL-OUT BOMBING.
AND THAT'S ONE OF THE MISCALCULATIONS
THAT LEADS TO DISASTER.
Narrator: SOVIET FIELD COMMANDERS HAVE THE AUTHORITY
TO DEFEND THEMSELVES USING ALL WEAPONS AT THEIR DISPOSAL.
AND THE ONE TARGET THAT WAS SITTING THERE
THAT THEY COULD RETALIATE AGAINST
AND SENDS A BIG MESSAGE
WAS THE AMERICAN NAVAL BASE AT GUANTANAMO
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA.
Narrator: THE SOVIET COMMANDER ORDERS THE FIRING
OF SIX TACTICAL NUCLEAR MISSILES AT GUANTANAMO,
HOME OF 9,500 SAILORS AND MARINES.
Gresham: THIS WOULD HAVE GONE AND LAID WASTE
TO THE ENTIRE AREA,
AND VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE ROUGHLY 9,500
MARINE, NAVY, AND OTHER PERSONNEL THAT WERE THERE
WOULD HAVE DIED.
THE CASUALTY RATE WOULD HAVE BEEN ALMOST 100%.
GUANTANAMO WOULD HAVE BEEN ERADICATED
FROM THE FACE OF THE PLANET.
Narrator: THE GUANTANAMO ATTACK WOULD MARK THE ONLY USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
SINCE THE U.S. BOMBING OF JAPAN AT THE END OF WORLD WAR II.
IN REALITY,
JOHN KENNEDY WASN'T ASSASSINATED IN DECEMBER OF 1960,
AND HE DID EVERYTHING IN HIS POWER
TO AVOID A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE.
Naftali: IN THE BACK OF HIS MIND FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE CRISIS,
KENNEDY UNDERSTOOD THAT HE MIGHT HAVE TO DO A DEAL.
THAT SHOWS HOW UNWILLING HE WAS TO TAKE THE FIRST STEP
ON THE LADDER OF ESCALATION THAT COULD LEAD TO NUCLEAR WAR.
Gresham: JOHN KENNEDY ALWAYS WANTED TO FIND A WAY TO DO THINGS
WITHOUT DIRECT CONFRONTATION.
HE REALIZED WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT TWO SIDES,
EACH WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS,
PLAYING CHICKEN IS A BAD THING.
Narrator: BEHIND THE SCENES,
KENNEDY AND SOVIET PREMIER KHRUSHCHEV
INDIRECTLY ENGAGED IN SECRET NEGOTIATIONS.
KENNEDY WAS NO SOVIET SYMPATHIZER,
BUT HE BELIEVED THAT THE SOVIETS SHARED WITH THE UNITED STATES
A DESIRE TO SURVIVE.
THE PRESIDENT HAD ESTABLISHED HIS BROTHER,
ATTORNEY GENERAL ROBERT KENNEDY,
AS A BACK CHANNEL OF COMMUNICATION TO KHRUSHCHEV.
THE REASON WHY BOBBY KENNEDY WAS SO IMPORTANT IS,
EVERYBODY UNDERSTOOD THAT IT WAS LIKE TALKING TO THE PRESIDENT.
THERE WAS NO ONE ELSE THAT COULD HAVE BEEN PICKED
IN WHICH THE SOVIETS WOULD HAVE ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENCE
THAT THEY WERE HEARING
WHAT THE PRESIDENT WANTED THEM TO HEAR.
Narrator: THE SOVIETS AGREED TO DISMANTLE THE MISSILE SITES.
IN RETURN, THE U.S. PROMISED NOT TO INVADE CUBA
AND TO REMOVE NATO'S JUPITER MISSILES FROM TURKEY.
KHRUSHCHEV DIDN'T BAT IT AWAY AND SAY, "WELL, PROVE IT TO ME."
HE ACCEPTED IT.
HE REALIZED THAT THE KENNEDYS,
THAT'S THE WAY THEY DID BUSINESS.
Narrator: AT KENNEDY'S INSISTENCE,
KHRUSHCHEV AGREED TO KEEP THE TURKEY CONCESSION A SECRET.
Naftali: THAT'S THE REAL KENNEDY,
AND IT'S ONLY SOMEBODY WITH INCREDIBLE SELF-CONFIDENCE
ABOUT THE WAY THE WORLD WORKS
WHO COULD UNDERTAKE THAT KIND OF SECRET INITIATIVE.
Narrator: AFTER 13 DAYS
TEETERING ON THE BRINK OF NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE,
THE MISSILE CRISIS WAS RESOLVED
WITHOUT ANOTHER SHOT BEING FIRED.
BUT IN OUR ALTERNATE SCENARIO,
JOHN F. KENNEDY ISN'T THERE TO GUIDE THE COUNTRY.
Naftali: LYNDON JOHNSON DID NOT SET UP A BACK CHANNEL WITH THE SOVIETS.
SO, THERE WAS NO BASIS FOR BELIEVING
THAT THIS KIND OF DEAL COULD OCCUR.
AND JOHNSON HIMSELF WAS UNLIKELY TO OFFER SUCH A DEAL.
Narrator: FEARING AN AMERICAN INVASION,
SOVIET COMMANDERS IN CUBA LAUNCH A NUCLEAR ATTACK ON GUANTANAMO,
KILLING 9,500 U.S. SAILORS AND MARINES
AND THOUSANDS OF CUBAN NATIONALS.
Swedin: THE LUCKY ONES
ARE THE ONES THAT ARE GOING TO BE KILLED IMMEDIATELY.
THE UNLUCKY ONES ARE THE ONES THAT ARE BURIED IN THE RUBBLE,
HAVE BEEN HURT,
OR HAVE BEEN EXPOSED DIRECTLY TO RADIATION
AND WILL DIE AGONIZING DEATHS WITHIN A MATTER OF DAYS.
Narrator: IN WASHINGTON,
PRESIDENT JOHNSON AND HIS TEAM ARE STUNNED
THAT THE SOVIETS USED NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAINST THEM
AND NOW THEY CONFRONT THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO
FEARED FOR SO MANY YEARS.
THERE IS NO WAY THAT THE UNITED STATES
IS GOING TO ABSORB A NUCLEAR ATTACK ON ITS FACILITY
THAT KILLS ALMOST 10,000 U.S. MILITARY PERSONNEL
AND SIT SILENTLY.
IT SIMPLY IS UNREALISTIC.
Narrator: AMERICAN BOMBERS ARE ALREADY IN THE AIR.
Swedin: THE UNITED STATES IS NOT GOING TO ALLOW ITSELF
TO LOOK LIKE A LOSER IN THIS SITUATION.
AND SO, FOR 9,500 MARINES AND SAILORS DEAD,
THEY'RE GONNA WANT APPROPRIATE PAYBACK.
THE AMERICAN MILITARY IS GONNA SAY,
"WE DIDN'T START THIS.
"WE DIDN'T ESCALATE AND START USING THESE TYPE OF WEAPONS,
BUT WE'RE GONNA FINISH IT."
Narrator: UP NEXT...
A DIFFERENT REALITY WHERE MISCALCULATION
COULD LEAD TO THE END OF THE WORLD.
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING THAT IS SO HORRIFIC
THAT IT'S HARD TO US TO MENTALLY COMPREHEND IT.
Narrator: IN OUR ALTERNATE WORLD,
THE U.S. NAVAL BASE AT GUANTANAMO
IS REDUCED TO RUBBLE
BY SIX SOVIET TACTICAL NUCLEAR MISSILES.
THE JOINT CHIEFS TELL PRESIDENT JOHNSON
THAT THE ATTACK CANNOT GO UNANSWERED.
"THEY'VE COME AFTER US WITH A NUCLEAR WEAPON, MR. PRESIDENT.
WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU WAITING FOR?"
YOU JUST LOST 9,500 TROOPS,
AND THE ENEMY HAS REALLY POWERFUL, EFFECTIVE WEAPONS.
AND SO, YOUR REACTION IS TO ELIMINATE
THE ABILITY OF THE ENEMY TO USE THOSE WEAPONS.
Narrator: JOHNSON WOULD LIKELY SEE
NO ALTERNATIVE TO ESCALATION
AND AUTHORIZE NUCLEAR-EQUIPPED BOMBERS
TO ATTACK ANYTHING OF MILITARY IMPORTANCE ON CUBAN SOIL.
THE RESULTS WOULD BE DEVASTATING.
Gresham: A COUPLE OF DOZEN NUCLEAR WEAPONS OF VARIOUS SIZES
WOULD HAVE TAKEN OUT VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING OF VALUE.
AND THAT WOULD HAVE, OF COURSE, INCLUDED THE OLD CITY OF HAVANA
AND THE ROUGHLY ONE MILLION OCCUPANTS THERE.
Narrator: AN ATTACK ON CUBA
WOULD CAUSE A SIGHT UNSEEN IN HUMAN HISTORY,
MULTIPLE NUCLEAR BOMBS EXPLODING IN THE OPEN AIR.
Swedin: YOU WOULD PROBABLY LITERALLY SEE,
DEPENDING WHERE YOU WERE ON THE ISLAND,
SEVERAL MUSHROOM CLOUDS GOING INTO THE SKY.
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING THAT IS SO HORRIFIC
THAT IT'S HARD FOR US TO MENTALLY COMPREHEND IT.
Narrator: ALTHOUGH SOVIET FORCES IN CUBA
WOULD BE DECIMATED BY THE NUCLEAR BLASTS,
POCKETS OF TROOPS COULD HAVE SURVIVED,
INCLUDING A LIGHT BOMBER UNIT
CONCEALED NEAR A SUGAR PLANTATION.
YOU'RE A LONE PILOT.
YOU'RE THE ONLY SURVIVOR OF YOUR UNIT.
YOU LOOK OVER AND YOU SEE A COUPLE OF MUSHROOM CLOUDS
OVER HAVANA IN THE DISTANCE.
YOU ASSUME THE WORLD IS COMING TO AN END,
AND YOU WANT TO GET ONE PUNCH IN FOR YOUR SIDE.
Narrator: THE BOMBER PILOT HAS LOST COMMUNICATION
WITH HIS COMMANDERS.
THE LAST ORDERS HE RECEIVED WERE TO FLY A BOMBING MISSION
OVER THE AMERICAN MAINLAND.
Naftali: NEITHER CAPITAL, MOSCOW OR WASHINGTON,
WAS UNDER THE CONTROL OF WARMONGERS.
NOBODY WANTED BLOOD.
THE OUTCOME OF THIS CRISIS WAS UNPREDICTED
AND UNWANTED BY EVERYONE.
Swedin: YOU HAVE AN EXPANDING BALL OF HEAT,
AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO IT,
IT WILL LITERALLY MELT EVERYTHING.
AND THEN YOU ALSO HAVE THE BLAST EFFECT,
WHICH IS THE EQUIVALENT OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
OR EVEN STRONGER WINDS PUSHING AND BLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN.
Narrator: BUILDINGS THROUGHOUT NEW ORLEANS
WOULD COLLAPSE LIKE THEY WERE MADE OF PAPER.
IT WOULD HAVE DEVASTATED THE INLAND PORT.
THERE WERE ALSO LARGE NUMBERS OF TROOPS BEING LOADED
AT THE INLAND PORT FACILITIES THERE IN NEW ORLEANS.
THOSE AND THE SHIPS THEY WERE LOADED ON
WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTROYED.
Narrator: WHAT ISN'T WIPED OUT BY THE FORCE OF THE EXPLOSION
WOULD BE CONSUMED BY THE MASSIVE FIRES THAT FOLLOWED.
200,000 PEOPLE DIE
FROM THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE NUCLEAR BLAST.
PRESIDENT JOHNSON AND HIS CABINET ARE STUNNED.
THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN THE TRIPWIRE TO LET LOOSE HELL.
IF AN AMERICAN CITY HAS JUST GONE UP
AS A RESULT OF A NUCLEAR ATTACK FROM THE SOVIET UNION,
WHETHER IT WAS A ROGUE OR AN ORDERED STRIKE,
STRATEGIC AIR COMMAND IS GONNA GET THE WORD
AND THE SIOP IS GOING TO BE EXECUTED.
Narrator: SIOP -- SINGLE INTEGRATED OPERATIONAL PLAN
IS THE AMERICAN MILITARY'S TACTICAL PLAN
FOR WAGING FULL-SCALE NUCLEAR WAR.
Greenfield: AND IT IS ESSENTIALLY,
"EMPTY THE MISSILE SILOS, SEND THE BOMBERS,
TAKE OUT EVERYTHING."
Gresham: VIRTUALLY EVERY POPULATION CENTER OVER 10,000,
EVERY MILITARY BASE, EVERY INDUSTRIAL FACILITY,
EVERY PORT,
VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING WOULD HAVE AT LEAST ONE WEAPON
DROPPED ON IT OR FIRED AT IT.
WE LIKE TO BELIEVE THAT A WAR WITH NUKES
IS SO INCONCEIVABLE
THAT NO RATIONAL PERSON WOULD EVER DO IT.
BUT PEOPLE, WHEN IT COMES TO WARFARE,
IN VERY RATIONAL WAYS, MAKE CHOICES
THAT IN RETROSPECT ARE COMPLETELY HORRIFIC.
MAN HAS MANAGED TO MAKE SOMETHING,
CREATE SOMETHING, THAT HE CAN NO LONGER CONTROL.
THIS WAS A SOBERING, PAINFUL LESSON FOR EVERYBODY.
THERE WERE NO WINNERS.
THERE WERE NO WINNERS IN THIS.
Narrator: IN REALITY,
LYNDON JOHNSON NEVER CAME TO BLOWS
WITH THE SOVIET UNION.
HE WAS PRESIDENT FOR SIX YEARS
DURING THE ESCALATION OF THE WAR IN VIETNAM.
PERHAPS HIS CROWNING ACHIEVEMENT WAS SIGNING INTO LAW
THE LANDMARK CIVIL RIGHTS ACT OF 1964.
Greenfield: JOHN KENNEDY DIDN'T GET KILLED IN PALM BEACH, FLORIDA.
BY A WEIRD, TINY TWIST OF FATE, HIS LIFE WAS SPARED.
AND WHAT THE COUNTRY WAS SPARED,
WELL, YOU CAN BEGIN TO IMAGINE.
BIZARRE AS IT MAY SEEM,
IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO ARGUE
THAT THE FACT THAT JACQUELINE KENNEDY
CAME TO THE DOOR OF THAT PALM BEACH HOUSE
SAVED THE WORLD FROM AN UNIMAGINABLE DISASTER.
Narrator: RICHARD PAVLICK WAS ARRESTED FOUR DAYS LATER
WHILE STAKING OUT ST. EDWARD'S CHURCH.
CHARGES AGAINST HIM WERE EVENTUALLY DROPPED
WHEN HE WAS FOUND INCOMPETENT TO STAND TRIAL.
HE REMAINED INSTITUTIONALIZED UNTIL DECEMBER OF 1966.
JFK WENT ON TO HANDLE THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS
WITH A BRILLIANT MIX OF TOUGHNESS AND DIPLOMACY.
BY GOING AND HOLDING SHORT OF USING ARMED FORCE,
BY NOT PULLING EVEN A TRIGGER ON A RIFLE,
HE KEPT THE OPTION OF DIALOGUE OPEN.
Narrator: HIS DECISION TO EMPLOY A BLOCKADE
RATHER THAN AN AIR STRIKE OR INVASION
IS CREDITED BY MANY
WITH AVERTING A POSSIBLE NUCLEAR WAR.
KENNEDY UNDERSTOOD THE FOLLY OF MANKIND,
THAT EVEN PEOPLE IMBUED WITH THE BEST OF INTENTIONS
CAN MAKE STUPID MISTAKES THAT LEAD TO ENORMOUS HARM.
Narrator: 13 MONTHS LATER, JOHN KENNEDY WOULD BE DEAD,
THE VICTIM OF AN ASSASSIN'S BULLET IN DALLAS,
LEAVING AMERICA AND THE WORLD TO WONDER IN A VERY REAL SENSE
WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN.