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thereafter no marks out of hurricane track dot com here with an off-season
addition
the hurricane opal video
i'm going to produce this
at least once a week
during the off-season between now and may
to keep you informed on
different things going on related to the upcoming hurricane season
as well as keeping you informed about
disruptive weather for the lower forty-eight
and
other tropical cyclone activity around the globe will take a look at that in a
minute
we did have an area of interest in as many one l
out of the atlantic
now has become much more from former major in control
atacama shape to it
once in a while you get these low pressures of develop here in the sub
profits
out of little pieces of energy the rotate around these high-pressure sales
sitting above the atlantic
and they can't rather choir tropical characteristics from time to time
this one gave it a shot
but it has run out of time and is now much more frontal in nature
more typical of a mid-level to storm than anything tropical
one of the things that will be keeping our eye on the off season
is the sea surface temperature anomaly abap
the atlantic basin here we see very warm sea surface temperatures relative to
normal
all running at least degree or so celsius above normal
from africa overthrew the eastern carribean
want to see if this holds third next year we have a long way to go obviously
this is one of the easier
climate signals that we contract
in addition we can see what's going on here in the pacific ocean
with the el nino southern oscillation phenomenon are
in so
will there be an el nino where the water out here is warmer than normal
which is where we were looking like we were headed this past season
or
will we see more of this blue coloring show up and
expand adhere to the west with time
indicating a more la nina type pattern or an abnormal cooling
of the pacific
we'll just have to wait and see but the good thing is we can track this
on a weekly and monthly basis
this is the sea surface temperatures subsurface
analysis is back in july
surfaces of the of the top
and the bottom of each particular windows about three or four hundred
meters
then you have the east pacific and the west pacific
previously rather warm pool of water covered most of the pacific ocean back
in the summer
by august though
once we got to august the started to relax a little bit
and then in september we lost a lot of that warmth in the upper
ocean in the tropical pacific
then finally in october we started to really lose
that warmth and cold anomaly started the show up
with only a very limited area
of warmer than normal subsurface e surface
subsurface temperatures
in the ocean
in the tropical pacific
november's analysis hasn't come out yet to my knowledge
maybe next week when under the video blog next monday it will
and i can show you but this is something that we can track
uh... regularly
as well as what's called the SOI, or the southern oscillation index
typically when you see it negatively we do here this is, of course, zero or neutral
what's a goes below zero and stays there
uh... this is the pressure pattern between Tahiti and Darwin
indicating what the pressures or
uh... the air flow patterns like in the tropical pacific
so when we have a strongly negative SOI
that's typical of a el nino situation
who have strongly positive like we did
last season
uh... and
through 2010 as well and typically have
cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the pacific
due to the way the trade winds react.
A negative SOI typically relaxes the trade winds in the tropical pacific
and you warm
the area along the equator and you get sort of an el nino taking place
and right now
the SOI, is at positive, there it is, right there,
positive
four
point four
so we are not anywhere near el nino category threshold
there it is there the last thirty days have been pretty steady
no wild swings up or down
this too, something that we can track
in the off season which will shape
what next year's atlantic hurricane season
has in store
in terms of overall activity
so we'll check on that once a week as well
in the pacific the western pacific
we do have a typhoon a super typhoon
i believe you pronounce it bo-f-a the ph
is silent so there's no f sounds just bh-o-fa
and
top winds are a hundred sixty miles per hour
and it's headed right for the southern philippines is going to be
is very very bad situation for these folks
uh... looking at the satellite picture the very latest, a
very well-defined
eye around central dense overcast associated with this thing
that's gonna move right in here over the next few hours into the southern
philippines
bringing a lot of moisture even on the north side of the flooding
storm surge here is waves
in this area get a lot bigger waves in the pacific these tyson's
due to the very deep water
very well-established outflow
we could see it has that tropical storm symbol to it
look at that
very well-defined tropical cyclone typhoon in this case
at a typhoon is the same thing as a hurricane it just has the name of tyson
it's no different
counter-clockwise rotation because it's
north of the equator
it's just call the typhoon
in that part of the world to be a real big disaster here
uh... they're a little bit more prepared over all the infrastructure because
they're dealing with these things are a regular basis
there it is a lot more vulnerable populations part of the world
in some areas as well
solution to the best is this pushes off
and across the philippines it'll be disrupted
significantly as it does uh... in the lower forty-eight the weather
fairly calm for most of the country
with the exception of the pacific northwest
we're pretty potent storm system is prompting all kinds of watches and
warnings
here is the pacific
northwestern here california the bottle
just to get your bearings
storm after storm after storm coming in
as low pressure in the upper atmosphere is setting off the
pacific northwest coast
driving that energy yet on the surface it looks like this
uses low-pressure area coming and spreading
it's preset into
um... western parts of canada
and washington oregon northern california the upper levels look like
this
uh... here's the pacific
west coast
there you go like that
so you got all this energy diving and carving out
others deep trough but uh... very sharp
lots of energy in here
driving all that preset them to the west meanwhile on the east
very warm
because of in increase
in the heights of the atmosphere
ridge sitting out here of the east
and everything has to tell you about another that for now
and the next eight days the g f s indicating
paid very deep trough to begin
the nation's midsection this will still keep the east
nice and warm
well it's a pretty deep trough of the nation's midsection
could have some very cold air travel geranium
uh... in about the next week to ten days
down the nation's heartland will have to wait and see
so that's a look at all things going on in the western pacific
couples snapshots of what to look forward to
azar track a few of the climate pieces
um... the larger climate signals in the off season in the atlantic in the
pacific
then of course are lower forty-eight whether that's what we'll do
once a week hopefully every monday but at least once a week
or a regular basis check the ap
hurricane hurricane h_d_ for the latest video blog
and i'll do my best to keep you informed
without this kind of information and they all season
again i'll mark sort of hurricane track back on my website
eliza
privilege and a pleasure to produce these videos for you
i'll be back with another one for you next week