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Hi, this is Linda Cheng with the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, Utah. This is
the weekly fire weather briefing, created on Monday September 2nd, 2013.
Let’s start with the weather pattern over the area today. We have high pressure remaining
east of the area with a weak weather disturbance lifting across northern Utah through
early this afternoon. This will keep the north active with scattered thunderstorms through
this afternoon. Meanwhile, southern Utah will be slightly less active due to a somewhat
drier and more stable airmass.
Now let’s look at the midweek period. Although high pressure will remain to our east, it will
shift slightly farther north and become more elongated. What this means is that instead of
drawing moist southerly flow into the area, we will start to see drier air from the Great
Plains and from the southwest spreading into the area.
For the weekend, the latest models show a pattern change with high pressure being
replace by a trough. This pattern would bring a stronger drying trend to the area,
beginning over the north as moisture becomes increasingly confined to the far south.
So here is a summary of the weather that we will be seeing for the next few days.
we can expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of
the fire district, with the greatest coverage across the mountains as well as northern
and western Utah. For Tuesday through Thursday, expect a gradual
the area. Thunderstorms will become increasingly confined to the high terrain.
change is currently forecast for the weekend which could result in a stronger drying
trend.
As far as the confidence level of our forecast, we have high confidence that daily showers
and thunderstorms will continue through late this week despite the drying trend. Although the
areal extent of thunderstorms should gradually decrease each day, we only have medium
confidence in this happening. Lower confidence is assigned to the strong drying
trend for the weekend since there is a chance that the pattern change might not occur
or be delayed.
Thanks for watching! If you have any questions feel free to send an email to the email address
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