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Bikash Joshi, the IMF Representative to the Russian Federation
The world economy steps into a new stage, when developed economies are gradually improving, while the growth in economies with forming markets is slowing down.
In our report, the expected growth of the world economy decreased a bit - 2,9% in 2013, 3,6% in 2014. This is less than our prediction in July.
For the developed countries, the July prediction is valid - 1,2% in 2013 and 2% in 2014.
The forming markets are in the decreasing part of the economic cycle, so they have smaller growth rates - 4.5% in 2013, 5,1% in 2014.
The situation in the U.S. will be important for the world economy.
Even though in the euro area the period of negative growth has ended, the growth in the European countries is predicted to be insignificant, and it cannot provide strong support to the economies with forming markets.
In this context I suggest a consideration of the new forecast by IMF on Russia: at the moment we predict that the growth of the Russian economy will remain at the level of 1.5% in 2013 and 3% in 2014.
The new forecast for 2013 differs from 2.5% which was predicted in July.
It reflects the slow growth in the first half of 2013 and corresponds to the consensus analysis of our analysts.
In the first half of the year consumption was supported by the dynamic growth of salaries and retail credits.
But weak investment activity, especially in processing industry and construction, prevented the growth.
Oil prices remain high, but the slowdown led to worsening external conditions.
In the second half of the year we expect exhilaration in the context of good harvest and some other factors, but it is not clear whether the scales of exhilaration will be good or not.
For Russia risks and predictions were shifted toward worsening.
Previously Russia experienced less discomfort from instability at financial markets, than other countries with developing market economies, considering its low involvement and significant reserves.
However, risks still appear.
Even though oil prices reduced from their highest levels in March 2012, they still remain high.
Reduction of oil and gas prices which could be caused by the shale revolution could have serious consequences for the Russian budget, preventing the growth.
To shift to a higher level, Russia needs a new model of growth. The model of the recent decade, which is based on usage of uncommitted facilities, cannot be reproduced in the context of oil prices growth.
Even though, in recent years systems and institutes of monetary and budget policy have been improved, unfavorable business climate still prevents an inflow of investments which could intensify the process of diversification and contribute to the growth.
Whether Russian economy will get a new impact or continue stagnation, it will depend on decisions made by the authorities of the country, IMF thinks.
Russia needs a new model of growth which would use natural resources more effectively in the energy sphere and provide the growth and diversification of oil-and-gas segment of economy.
According to the basic scenario of IMF, the medium-term potential growth will reach 3.5% in the context of the restrictions.
To eliminate these restrictions, the country needs a structural reform.
However, to improve institutes, to overcome these restrictions, Russia should use the window of opportunities, which opens in the period of high oil prices, and implement the measures which will be effective in the medium-term period.