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>> WE'RE TALKING WATER NOW AND NEXT WEEK, AND NEXT MONTH.
WE DELIBERATELY WAITED TO START THE SERIES UNTIL FIRE
SEASON STARTED BECAUSE IT IS A TOPIC ON THE TIP OF MANY
TONGUES RIGHT NOW. SO, WHAT IS AHEAD FOR NEW
MEXICANS WHEN IT COMES TO HOT DRY EXISTENCE WE CARVED OUT
FOR OURSELVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WE BEGIN WITH THE AUTHOR OF THE BOOK "A GREAT ARIDNESS,"
WILLIAM DEBUYS. HER IS NMIF PRODUCER MATT
GRUBS. >> BILL, THE SITUATION SEEMS
PRETTY DIRE IF YOU PICK UP THE FIRST, AS I MENTIONED EARLIER,
50 PAGES OF THAT BOOK, THINGS DON'T LOOK SO GOOD IN THE
SOUTHWEST. >> WELL, I WISH THEY WERE
BETTER. I WISH I HAD WRITTEN A HAPPIER
STORY. I NEVER INTENDED TO BE THE
KIND OF JEREMIAH TALKING ABOUT THE SKY FALLING OR WHATEVER
BUT THINGS ARE VERY SERIOUS. AND THEY ARE GETTING MORE
SERIOUS. SINCE I WROTE THE BOOK, I
GUESS I FINISHED WRITING TWO OR THREE YEARS AGO, IT TAKES
AWHILE FOR A BOOK TO GET MANUFACTURED AND COME OUT.
NOTHING THAT HAS HAPPENED HAS CONTRADICTED ANY OF THE
CONCLUSIONS THAT I REACHED IN THE BOOK AND THE DATA THAT HAS
COME FROM THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, CONCLUSIONS
ANALYSES ARE, IF ANYTHING, BLEAKER NOW THAN THEY WERE A
FEW YEARS AGO. >> WHY IS IT SO HARD FOR US TO
PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SORT OF THING?
>> BOY, THAT IS THE JACKPOT QUESTION.
AND I DON'T REALLY HAVE THE ANSWER TO IT.
SOME PEOPLE SAY THAT PEOPLE ARE JUST NOT COGNITIVELY
EQUIPPED TO DEAL WITH SLOW MOVING THREATS THAT, YOU KNOW,
THE NASTY LOOKING GUY COMING OVER THE HILL WITH A CLUB IN
HIS HAND, WE CAN RESPOND TO THAT BECAUSE OUR ADRENAL
GLANDS GET US AROUSED AND PREPARE US TO DEAL WITH
IMMINENT THREAT. SLOW KIND OF THINGS LIKE
CLIMATE CHANGE ARE VERY DIFFICULT FOR US.
THAT IS ONE REASON. ANOTHER REASON IS THAT THE
VESTED ECONOMIC INTERESTS, BIG OIL AND BIG COAL, DON'T WANT
US TO LOOK THIS PROBLEM IN THE EYE AND DON'T WANT US TO TAKE
IT ON. WHEN THERE WAS ANOTHER WEAK
CAP AND TRADE BILL BEFORE CONGRESS IN, I THINK, 2010,
BIG OIL AND BIG COAL SPENT HALF A BILLION DOLLARS
LOBBYING AGAINST EVEN THAT. BUT, IF YOU PILE UP ALL THE
REASONS NOT TO DO SOMETHING, THEY ALL COME DOWN SORT OF TO
WHAT JOHN KENNETH GALBREATH SAID ONCE UPON A TIME WHICH IS
THAT, "FACED WITH THE NECESSITY OF CHANGING ONE'S
MIND OR PROVING THAT IT IS UNNECESSARY, NEARLY EVERYBODY
GETS BUSY ON THE PROOF," BUT THE FACT IS THAT ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE KNOWN ABOUT THIS PROBLEM, IN SOME DETAIL, SINCE AT LEAST
THE 1980'S, WE HAVE DONE REALLY NOTHING ABOUT IT.
SO, NOW WE HAVE GOT OURSELVES PAINTED INTO A RATHER TIGHT
CORNER AND OUR OPPORTUNITIES FOR DECISIVE ACTION, ACTION
THAT REALLY WOULD REMEDY THE SITUATION OR IMPROVE THE
SITUATION MATERIALLY, OUR OPTIONS ARE GETTING FEWER AND
FEWER. OUR DECISION SPACE IS NARROWER
AND NARROWER. >> WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME
OR IT IS HAPPENING FASTER THAN WE THOUGHT.
>> YOU KNOW, THE MODELS THAT PREDICT HOW CLIMATE CHANGE IS
GOING TO MOVE HAVE PROVED TO BE VERY ROBUST.
THEIR PREDICTIONS ARE HOLDING UP EXTREMELY WELL EXCEPT IN
ONE MAJOR RESPECT. AND THAT IS THAT THE CHANGES
ARE HAPPENING FASTER THAN THE MODELS PREDICTED.
>> YOU SAID, IN YOUR BOOK, "A GREAT ARIDNESS," THAT AS HUMAN
BEINGS, YOU KNOW, IF SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN, WE HAVE
THIS KNACK FOR MAKING IT HAPPEN A LOT SOONER.
>> OUR IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT IS IN MANY
INSTANCES NOT DETERMINATIVE BUT MORE SYNERGISTIC.
WE CAUSE THINGS TO HAPPEN MORE QUICKLY OR WITH GREATER FORCE
THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.
>> THAT IS SOMETHING THAT PERHAPS COMES CLOSEST TO
REPRESENTING THE GUY COMING OVER THE HILL WITH THE CLUB,
ARE THE INTENSITY OF WHAT IS HAPPENING.
WE LOOKED RECENTLY TO THE STORM IN OKLAHOMA.
WE LOOK TO SANDY HURRICANE ON THE EAST COAST, JUST ABOUT
EVERY AREA HAS SOMETHING TO POINT TO SAY, WOW, THAT DIDN'T
SEEM TO USED TO HAPPEN SO MUCH.
>> YEAH, THERE ARE LOTS OF BIG STORMS AND DROUGHTS AND SO
FORTH THAT HAVE HAPPENED IN RECENT YEARS THAT IF THEY
WEREN'T CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN THEIR MAGNITUDE OR
SEVERITY, THEY AT LEAST FIT THE PATTERN OF WHAT WE EXPECT
FROM THE MODELS OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
SO FOR A LONG TIME, SCIENTISTS WERE CAREFUL ABOUT WHAT THEY
COULD SAY. THEY WOULD SAY THAT MAYBE
CLIMATE CHANGE DIDN'T CAUSE THIS BUT IT FITS OUR
EXPECTATIONS OF WHAT CLIMATE CHANGE WILL DO.
THERE IS AN INCREASING SORT OF SUBAREA OF ACTIVITY IN CLIMATE
CHANGE SCIENCE RIGHT NOW WHICH ARE CALLED ATTRIBUTION STUDIES
WHICH ACTUALLY MAKE THE CAUSAL LINK BETWEEN THIS DROUGHT AND
CLIMATE CHANGE. AND, AN EXAMPLE IS THE SEVERE
DROUGHT IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA IN 2011.
IT WAS SO SEVERE THAT IT ACTUALLY DOESN'T FIT ANY OF
THE MODELS FOR THE NATURAL RANGE OF VARIABILITY FOR THOSE
AREAS AND IT APPEARS TO BE -- THE DROUGHT ITSELF IS NOT THE
RESULT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, BECAUSE DROUGHTS ARE NATURAL
TO THAT REGION, BUT THE SEVERITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO
CLIMATE CHANGE BECAUSE THE SEVERITY WAS SO MUCH GREATER
THAN ANYTHING WE CAN EXPLAIN OTHERWISE.
>> THE WAY, IN PARTICULAR, THAT THE SOUTHWEST
DEMONSTRATES CLIMATE CHANGE, WHAT GRABBED YOU ABOUT THAT
FOR THE BOOK? >> WELL, I GOT STARTED ON THE
BOOK WHEN I WAS SITTING IN A HOTEL ROOM AT A CONFERENCE IN
ALBUQUERQUE AND I SAW A MAN, A CLIMATE SCIENTIST PUT A MAP UP
ON THE SCREEN THAT WAS A MAP OF PREDICTED CHANGES IN WATER
AVAILABILITY, BASICALLY. AND THE SOUTHWEST, MY BELOVED
SOUTHWEST, MY HOMELAND, WAS BRIGHT RED.
IT WAS IN THIS PREDICTION ONE OF THE BIG LOSERS ON WATER AND
I THOUGHT, I WANT TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF THAT MAP.
I WANT TO TALK TO THE MAN WHO MADE IT.
I WANT TO TALK TO THE PEOPLE BEHIND THE SCIENCE THAT
PRODUCED THAT MAP. AND I DID AND THE STORIES
BEHIND THAT ARE IN THE BOOK THAT I WROTE, "A GREAT
ARIDNESS." THE SOUTHWEST ALREADY HOT AND
DRY IS GOING TO GET A LOT HOTTER AND A LOT DRIER.
AS JONATHAN OVERPECK OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA SAYS,
THERE ARE GOING TO BE WINNERS AND LOSERS IN CLIMATE CHANGE
AND THE SOUTHWEST IS GOING TO BE A LOSER.
>> WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR OUR DAILY LIFE, 20 YEARS DOWN THE
ROAD, 10 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD, THIS SUMMER?
>> I AM NOT ALL THAT GOOD AT LOOKING INTO CRYSTAL BALLS, I
DON'T THINK, BUT I DO BELIEVE THE SOUTHWEST IS GOING TO HAVE
TO SHRINK IN SOME WAYS AND CERTAINLY THE AGRICULTURAL
SECTOR IS GOING TO SHRINK A GOOD DEAL.
RANCHING, FARMING. WITHOUT WATER WE ARE NOT GOING
TO BE ABLE TO RANCH AND FARM AS MUCH AS WE DO NOW.
IN THE YEARS AHEAD, WE'LL SEE A LOT OF TRANSFERS OF WATER OR
LEASE ARRANGEMENTS OF WATER FROM AGRICULTURE WHICH STILL
CONTROLS MOST OF THE WATER IN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA AND OUR
NEIGHBORING STATES. THERE IS GOING TO BE A LOT OF
MOVEMENT OF WATER FROM AGRICULTURE TO MUNICIPAL AND
INDUSTRIAL USES. AND THAT IS GOING TO MEAN THAT
THE AG SECTOR IS GOING TO SHRINK.
IT MAY MEAN THAT THE AG LANDOWNERS WHO TEND TO BE THE
AG WATER RIGHT OWNERS, MAY NOT SUFFER, YOU KNOW, THEY I'LL BE
COMPENSATED FOR THOSE TRANSFERS BUT ALL THE REST OF
THE SECTOR, THE TRUCK DRIVERS AND THE FARM HANDS AND THE
FERTILIZER SALESMEN AND THE GUY WHO SELLS THE TRUCKS AND
THE SCHOOLS THAT ARE SUPPORTED BY TAXES THAT COME OUT OF
AGRICULTURAL AREAS, THESE PLACES ARE ALL GOING TO BE
PRETTY HARD HIT. IMPACTS ON THE CITIES, I
THINK, ARE MUCH, MUCH HARDER TO FORECAST BECAUSE CITIES ARE
SO MUCH MORE FLEXIBLE AND SO MUCH MORE, IN A WAY, COMPLEX
SO I DON'T REALLY KNOW BUT I THINK THAT A PLACE LIKE
PHOENIX, FOR INSTANCE, WHICH IS ALREADY A VERY HOT PLACE,
AS IT GETS HOTTER AND HOTTER, YOU JUST WONDER, WHERE IS THE
LIMIT? HOW HOT CAN IT GET BEFORE IT
BECOMES VIRTUALLY UNLIVABLE. IT IS ALREADY UNLIVABLE
WITHOUT ELECTRICITY. AND SO, POWER IS GOING TO BE
THE KEY, AIR CONDITIONING IS GOING TO BE THE KEY FOR MANY
OF OUR DESERT CITIES AND THERE IS A TIGHT LINK BETWEEN POWER
GENERATION AND WATER. IT TAKES A LOT OF WATER TO
GENERATE POWER, WHETHER IT IS A COAL FIRED PLANT OR A HYDRO
PLANT OR A NUCLEAR PLANT. AND SO, AS LONG AS WE REMAIN
IN THE KIND OF GENERATION SYSTEM THAT WE'RE IN TODAY,
THAT LINK -- POWER IS GOING TO MAKE BIG DEMAND ON THE WATER
SUPPLIES WHICH WILL BE DWINDLING AND UNDER BIG DEMAND
FROM OTHER SECTORS, FOR OTHER USES AT THE SAME TIME.
SO, HOW THAT WORKS OUT IS ANYBODY'S GUESS, BUT IT IS
GOING TO BE THE GAME OF THE CENTURY.
>> WHAT ABOUT SMALLER PLAYERS IN THE UPPER BASIN, NEW MEXICO
IN PARTICULAR. YOU LOOK AT GROWTH OF
ALBUQUERQUE ON THE WESTSIDE, RIO RANCHO, LAS CRUCES.
THESE ARE FAST GROWING CITIES HERE IN DRY SPOTS AND YET THE
HOUSING INDUSTRY, EVERYTHING THAT GOES ALONG WITH THAT,
CONSTRUCTION OF ROADS AND ALL THAT INFRASTRUCTURE, THAT IS
WHAT WE THINK OF AS GROWTH AND A POSITIVE ECONOMIC DRIVER.
ARE WE THINKING ABOUT THAT THE WRONG WAY?
>> ULTIMATELY WE HAVE TO FIND A WAY TO SUPPORT AN ECONOMY
THAT ISN'T BASED ON CONTINUOUS GROWTH.
THERE IS NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT. WE HAVE GOT TO FIND A WAY TO
ACHIEVE A KIND OF STEADY STATE ECONOMY.
WE'RE A LONG WAY FROM THAT RIGHT NOW.
BUT, WE DON'T HAVE THE WATER TO KEEP GROWING INFINITELY.
>> AS YOU DIG INTO THE BOOK, YOU SEE THAT DROUGHT IS LIKELY
GOING TO COME MORE FREQUENTLY AND IT IS GOING TO BE DEEPER
AND WE'RE GOING TO GET A NEW NORMAL.
SO THE IMPORTANCE OF THAT RESILIENCY IS REALLY
UNDERSCORED BY WHAT YOU FOUND. >> THAT IS RIGHT AND IN A
SENSE, MAYBE WE'RE NOT IN A DROUGHT RIGHT NOW.
MAYBE THIS IS THE NEW NORMAL. THAT IS WHAT SOME OF THE
MODELING INDICATES THAT THE NEW NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHWEST
IS GOING TO BE WHAT THE DROUGHT OF THE 1950'S OR THE
1930'S WAS. BUT, FOR INSTANCE, WE DON'T
SAY THAT THE SAHARA DESERT IS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT.
DROUGHT IS SOMETHING EXCEPTIONAL, SAHARA IS DRY BY
NATURE. WHAT WE'RE DEALING WITH HERE
TODAY IS PROBABLY THE BEGINNING OF AN ERA WHERE THE
DRYNESS, THE ARIDITY, THE INTENSIFIED ARIDITY WE'RE
EXPERIENCING IS NOT REALLY A DROUGHT.
IT IS THE NEW NORMAL. >> YET, STILL, WHEN I THINK
BACK TO THE 2012 ELECTION, IT IS ALMOST THAT TABOO IN THE
REPUBLICAN PARTY TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE IMPACT OF
HUMANS ON THE CLIMATE AND TO SAY THAT WE CAUSED THAT SORT
OF THING. IS THERE A GAP BETWEEN THAT
OPINION AND THE SCIENCE THAT IS OUT THERE?
>> THIS IS ONE OF THE GREAT TRAGEDIES OF THE UNITED STATES
AND REALLY OF THE GLOBE TODAY THAT IN SO MANY AREAS, AND
PARTICULARLY IN AMERICA, IN OUR POLITICS, CLIMATE CHANGE
HAS BECOME A KIND OF IDEOLOGICAL FOOTBALL THAT GETS
PASSED BACK AND FORTH, AND PEOPLE HAVE ATTACHED
THEMSELVES SO MUCH TO THEIR POSITIONS THAT THEY HAVE LOST
SIGHT OF THEIR INTERESTS AND THE DENIAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IN OUR POLITICAL SPHERE BY SO MANY OF SO MANY MEMBERS OF
CONGRESS, SO MANY INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE, IS GOING TO BRING THE
COUNTRY TO GREAT WOE, THERE IS NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT.
ONE WAY TO THINK ABOUT IT IS CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE MOST
INTERGENERATIONAL CRIME IN THE HISTORY OF HUMAN KIND.
THE PEOPLE WHO ARE THE BIGGEST LOSERS IN THIS ARE NOT PEOPLE
MY AGE, NOT PEOPLE YOUR AGE, BUT THE PEOPLE AT THE AGE OF
OUR CHILDREN AND OUR GRANDCHILDREN.
THEY ARE GOING TO INHERENT AN EARTH THAT IS MUCH LESS
SUPPORTIVE, MUCH LESS LIVABLE THAN THE BEAUTIFUL PLANET WE
HAVE BEEN ENJOYING. >> DO YOU SEE REASON FOR HOPE?
DO YOU SEE OPTIMISM AND IF NOT, THE WAY THE CLIMATE IS
CHANGING, THE WAY THEY ARE HANDLING IT.
>> ALL WAYS. WE COULD GET DOWN TO BUSINESS
AND MAKE SOME REAL CHANGES, BUT I'LL JUST MENTION ONE MORE
TRAGEDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THAT IS TECHNICALLY,
TECHNOLOGICALLY, WE HAVE THE MEANS TO SHIFT OUR ECONOMY.
WE CAN MOVE AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS.
WE CAN DO THAT WITHOUT DEPRESSING THE ECONOMY BECAUSE
WE'LL BE GROWING IN SO MANY AREAS AS WE KIND OF SHRINK
OTHER AREAS. WE CAN DO THIS STUFF.
PART OF THE TRAGEDY IS THAT WE CAN DO IT BUT WE AREN'T DOING
IT. WE CAN STILL GET STARTED AND
WE NEED TO GET STARTED. THERE IS ALWAYS SO MUCH GREAT
WORK TO BE DONE. I MEAN, I GET UP EVERY MORNING
AND I LOOK OUT THE WINDOW AND THINK, WHAT A BEAUTIFUL LAND
THIS IS, WHAT A BEAUTIFUL PLACE THIS IS, AND AS LONG AS
THERE IS THAT BEAUTY OUT THERE, FOR ME, THERE IS
SOMETHING TO WORK ON. THERE IS SOMETHING TO DEFEND,
SOMETHING TO TRY TO PROTECT, SOMETHING TO TRY TO HOLD ON
TO. AND, SO, THAT KIND OF EFFORT,
AT LEAST FOR ME, GIVES MEANING AND AS LONG AS THERE IS
MEANING, I THINK THOSE THINGS ARE INHERENTLY OPTIMISTIC.
THERE IS ALWAYS SOMETHING GOOD THAT WE CAN ACHIEVE RIGHT NOW
AND TOMORROW.