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Perfect. Thanks, Bob, and thanks to
Rob Fatland for his visual
presentation. I obviously
do not have cool visualizations for you like he does but
will work on it. We do have some cool weather for you today.
I know it's like this here all the time
just like it's like this in Alaska all the time and so we can thank
our meteorologist-in-charge of the Seattle forecast office, Brad
Colman, for perfect providing this wonderful weather we have here today so
Brad, take credit for the good weather -- come on now. [applause]
So it's my pleasure to be here. There were several people that
twisted my arm a little bit.
The first email I had was from Jack Dunnigan.
He wanted me to come here and speak to you all and then Zdenka Willis
and Jan Newton as well so they didn't have to twist my arm very hard at all.
I've been involved in IOOC basically since its inception
and I was a little nervous at first not understanding what IOOC was all about
but as soon as Admiral Lautenbacher put out his annual guidance memorandum
saying that IOOC was cool
and something that we should really do
helping us take the pulse of the planet
and so I I understood what was going on. The next thing I met Molly McCammon and
I was hooked. I was on the AOOS -- the Alaska Ocean Observing -- board and
everything else is is history so thanks to Molly for encouraging me
to go to D.C. when that opportunity came forth, too. I don't
know if she was tired of me or
thought maybe I could help a little bit more in D.C.
Our hosts -- thank you very much Microsoft Research -- what a beautiful
campus you have here.
It's a great place to be.
And also the co-sponsors again I'd like to thank the co-sponsors:
Sea-Bird Electronics,
Sonardyne International,
Reed Exhibitions, and of course NANOOS, the Northwest Association of
Networked Ocean Observing Systems. Much easier to say NANOOS and IOOC
and then we all joke about the "oozing" of all the regional associations, right?
So we are facing
interesting times and we are increasing our understanding of the oceans, the
atmosphere, the land all the time and this has led to
excellent advances in our ability to forecast and warn
the oceanic whether and the atmospheric weather for you all.
But we don't always get things right
When I was in alaska I always had the weather right though, because we hardly
had any verification observations out there so the weather was always right.
Days like today though make me think of when I was an aviation forecaster in Alaska
and the photographers would call and say "here's the weather I need"
and I would say "well here's the weather you're going to get"
and they would say "well here's the weather I need." So
we continue to struggle with knowing exactly what's going to happen with the
weather
but partnerships like you all and through IOOC
definitely has helped us advance our our ability to forecast the weather.
Two weeks ago
Brad was not being applauded and clapped for
when the when the Seattle area was hit with the winter storm and the ice storm --
snow on Wednesday and turning over to
ice on Thursday.
The storm actually was in a surprise though.
We were doing webinars and briefings over the weekend before the
storm actually hit.
There was uncertainty and in the amount of ice we were going to receive and that
was really what the surprise was -- the magnitude of the storm
and how long the storm is actually going to last.
Our forecast models didn't anticipate, again, the magnitude of the ice,
so the ice is what really fooled us, the private meteorologists and researchers.
We did get back on track quickly
using our real-time observations, the profiler, our new coastal radar.
Exciting to have that coastal radar out there showing us what was going on.
And then of course the Automated Surface Observing Systems.
We worked with Puget Sound Energy and that's important to work with folks like
Puget Sound Energy
to make sure that their
folks who are out trying to restore the power
could do that in a safe manner, as well.
So they were facing dangerous high winds as the worked to restore the power to
the thousands of customers who were out of power.
It's always difficult to forecast here
just like in Alaska with the the coastal terrain and
the mountains. Back east they say it's hard to forecast as well because of all
those -- well, they call them mountains, but
they're kind of like those rounded hills they have back there.
It's definitely a challenge as well, particularly when you have storms
coming off of the ocean -- the nor'easters we have back in the east. And so again,
pinpointing those temperatures and other factors --
whether you'll get ice, snow or wind -- it's really important to have an
understanding of what's going on
over the ocean.
Over the past couple of decades investments in science, technology,
strategic partnerships
have enabled us to overcome some of the obstacles
and greatly improve our forecasting.
For example, IOOC and NANOOS
now have in the water
a tremendous amount of information that's fed to our National Data Buoy Center
in Stennis.
In fact, I was down there visiting them last year and the amount of data they
have now is unbelievable
and has improved significantly since the Indian Ocean Tsunami
of December 2004.
Another great example, again, is the installation of the Northwest's
new coastal radar last fall.
I saw some of the advances at Brad's office yesterday. I went to the
Weather Forecast Office and saw
how that was able to show really where the rain and snow line
was in the exact position. Unfortunately that's the real time data,
rather than
being able to help us forecast it
hours and days in advance.
We've come a long way,
but we have a long way to go.
What else might have helped us with that ice storm?
One thing we found almost immediately in the assessment that Brad his office did
was that our models did not capture the extent of the precipitation that formed
over the Pacific Ocean.
It would help immensely to improve our atmospheric observations over the ocean.
One of our major challenges is to integrate the ocean, the atmosphere and
our coastal observations at all scales.
The new Doppler radar on the coast here provides advanced technologies and data
collection.
However the radar
can only see a few hundred miles out
and as you know, those storms are often developing
and moving in from thousands of miles away out at sea.
Integrating these multiple collection platforms --
satellites ocean observing systems,
coastal buoys,
high-frequency radar --
that would significantly improve our predictive capabilities.
Our partnerships
have enabled us to integrate these capabilities, particularly the mutual
benefits of our IOOC partnerships,
and what that can bring to us in the future.
There are strong national and international needs, as well.
You know, last year we experienced the "Year of Extremes" we were calling it.
Over a thousand lives were lost.
So we had fourteen
individual billion-dollar events
related to whether.
And those economic losses totaled fifty billion dollars.
Even though in the weather enterprise we are performing well, Joplin was really
the catalyst for us in regards to developing
an initiative called our Weather-Ready Nation.
We did a great job of forecasting the tornado that impacted the Joplin area. In
fact they had twenty four minutes of lead time,
but still a hundred and sixty people perished.
So why are people still dying if our forecasts are so good?
The strategic alignment of partners, like you all,
will be able to better get the information of these forecasts and
warnings to the last mile. How can we communicate the information
appropriately
and minimize the loss of life and property?
None of us can improve
and provide the Weather-Ready Nation initiative alone
so we've got to
value our collaboration and the partnerships.
The private sector research and innovation that Rob talked about,
investments in new technologies and research institutions,
all that add value to the work that we need to do
again to build this Weather-Ready Nation.
I know that oceanographers often envy the meteorologists'
wealth of observations.
But meteorologists, particularly marine meteorologists,
are always observation-starved.
We want more observations
and the more we can get the better our forecasts and warnings will be.
We have a couple paths to take.
One is to continue doing what we're doing now --
doing the same things.
Ironically, it is Groundhog Day today
and so Bill Murray may have had a right.
But those of us that are here in this room,
we're not going to accept
doing the same things over and over every day.
We're going to choose another path and push forward
to continue to improve,
despite the constraints imposed upon us in these difficult economic times.
We are all observation-starved,
but observing systems are expensive.
That makes our partnerships all the more important,
where we're not only leveraging each other's expertise,
we're also eliminating redone nazi reducing uncertainty
and ensuring the maximum value for each system.
So where are we now?
Our current capabilities were fueled by your visionary decisions made in the past.
Strategic partnerships and sophisticated instrumentation
have resulted in our greater understanding of the interactions
between the oceans in the atmosphere.
And I'm so thankful that I'm talking to such a diverse group of individuals out
here. Typically I'm talking to a bunch of neurologists. Sorry, Brad.
But that's really what we've got to do -- we've all got to come together
beyond just the meteorology community
and make sure that these partnerships are leveraged
and we're
understanding better the linkages among the land,
the atmosphere and the oceans
and how these influence each other.
IOOC observations provide data
that enable the Weather Service to run models and create marine forecasts,
advisories and warnings.
In some regions of the country
all we have are wave observations the forecast offices
are provided by IOOC.
Overall NOAA National Weather Service platforms operated by IOOC partners and
NOAA's National Ocean Service
provide seventy eight percent of the data that the National Data Buoy has.
So it's pretty amazing
the amount of information we're able to compile and pull together.
We in the weather enterprise are keenly appreciative of how knowledge of oceans
has improved the meteorological modeling and forecasting.
For example, Hurricane Irene --
our track forecast was right on the money.
We have greater lead time in understanding
and detecting the storm development.
In fact the storm actually made landfall near Morehead City, North Carolina, on Saturday.
On Monday we were trying to get
Dr. Hayes on the flight of the P-3 that would penetrate the storm
and I actually had to go on the website -- the hurricane center website -- and say
um...
it looks like the storm might be named Irene. I think you're going to
be flying into Irene on Friday, Jack.
That was the storm he flew so that's pretty amazing that we knew that storm
was out there seven days in advance and
pretty close, almost right on track, to wear made landfall.
Now in 1999 I was the warning coordination meteorologist in
Morehead City. That's when Hurricane
Dennis, Floyd and Irene --
Devastation has kind of followed me so it's not really
my performance, it's just that
devastation as followed me along my career. At any rate,
Hurricane Floyd in '99 took
almost at the same
path Irene took
but unfortunately we evacuated
Florida, Atlanta,
South Carolina, North Carolina -- all up the eastern seaboard
we evacuated.
Thankfully Irene -- we knew she was gonna pretty much go
right into North Carolina so the number of evacuations
was considerably less, based on
our ability to forecast the track, again, 7-8 days in advance.
Another extremely important benefit
is that we are able to ut avoid those unnecessary evacuations.
Think about how information increases people's safety.
Not only are we providing more time to prepare for storms that hit,
we're avoiding, again, those unnecessary evacuations that are so costly.
In addition to quickly-developing weather events,
oceanic information is also helping us understand longer-range phenomena.
Our knowledge of El Nino and La Nina events,
for example, is helping with predictions and with connecting individual weather
patterns.
These events that we've seen here in the Northwest
are very typical of the La Nina event that we've been in for a year now and we
are expecting to continue.
The IOOC community in the Pacific Northwest have provided significant help
regarding coastal hazards through the
high-frequency radar network and other observation platforms. These observations,
in conjunction with the National Weather Service meteoorlogical data,
give us improved capability to predict the fate and transport of hazardous spills
and improve the forecast for Puget Sound
for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Columbia River.
We still have to build
these already strong partnerships.
As we increase our knowledge of systemic influences we also look at how
we can optimize the mix of the observations.
Currently IOOC brings partners together
to enable access to buoy and meteorological data
from academics, commercial,
and other local providers.
This happens partially through federal dollars,
but it also
leverages a variety of other funding sources, so it's not just federal dollars.
This, of course, decreases the costs of our work,
but again,
provides that valuable information so we can have accurate forecasts and warnings.
We capitalize on this even further.
For instance, with the investment in IOOC,
buoys can be supported in strategic locations of key modelers.
So when I was in Alaska Region, with the partnership that we had with Molly McCammon,
we were able to move one of the buoys to Prince William Sound and make
it a multi-sensor platform.
Now granted,
that costs a little bit and so we can't do that throughout the entire network,
but it is something to continue to think about.
I find it fascinating
then in the future our model forecasts may be improved by physical and chemical
oceanagraphic observations brought to us by fleets of...
salmon,
seals,
sea lions --
amazing technological breakthroughs
that we had never thought of before.
Effective work in our partnerships can also help us understand and mitigate the
impact of weather phenomenon on coastal ecosystems and economies.
So our current need?
I think out current need is still this vision of a Weather-Ready Nation.
We're always looking at how we can do better, no matter how well we're doing,
because we recognize the impacts
the weather forecasting have
on people, and our infrastructure.
The ice storm caused power outages,
canceled flights -- which I think Zdenka was prepared to sleep on the floor here
in Seattle, she said --
business closures, etc.
People looking to the forecast to make decisions affecting their safety and
their livelihoods
we're excited about our partnership with IOOC, what it's done and what it can
do for helping us build a Weather-Ready Nation.
The end goal is to help people make better decisions
with better information so, again, we can save lives and livelihoods.
The Weather Service part is to provide accurate information
and help people act on it
to make communities resilient to whether an environmental impacts.
Being a Weather-Ready Nation goes beyond preparedness for
storms and climate issues.
A high portion of the U.S. population, as you well know,
live along the coast now.
I think it's fifty one percent of the population live within seventeen
percent of our land.
It's clear that we need more information,
more observations from oceans in order to protect lives and livelihoods.
A Weathre-Ready Nation initiative enables integrated environmental
services that support both healthy communities,
ecosystems,
in the support of NOAA's vision of resilient ecosystems, communities and
economies.
The National Weather Service and other NOAA line officers are working in
partnership with IOOC to address weather-dependent events that impact
the public,
the public health,
the coastal ecosystem
and coastal commerce.
Harmful algal blooms and hypoxia threaten aquaculture
and commercial fisheries.
Pathogens threaten our health, recreation and public safety.
So as I heard yesterday, let's get that beach closure out the day that we need
the beach closure,
not the day after we need the beach closure.
These hazards, combined with other ecosystem stressors, such as climate
change and ocean acidification,
threaten our lives and livelihood.
IOOC partnerships contribute critical infrastructure and observing capabilities
that address these issues
on the local,
regional, national and even international scales.
An IOOC coastal observing model testbed is under development
with the aim to accelerate the transition of science and technology
in the coastal hazard prediction.
Life, health, property and the environment can be better protected against storm surge,
harmful algal blooms and hypoxia
as the testbed helps us put knowledge into operational services.
Last week I was in New Orleans at the American Meteorological Society --
so that's like our weather geek convention of the year -- it is really cool.
But I prefer the diverse community that I have here today.
But, seriously, New Orleans is still recovering
not only from Katrina, but also now from the Deepwater Horizon
Gulf oil spill.
During Deepwater Horizon, clean up made very clear the cross influences of
whether, water and the influences on people and the ecosystems.
In fact the Coast Guard said that weather drove their operations. The first
thing they need to know was what the weather was
so they could then
determine what operations they took throughout the day
to incorporate the rest of your expertise.
The situation had major impacts on ecosystems affecting commerce,
tourism and health.
The cleanup required great efforts from a large number of partners.
Workers capping the leak needed weather forecasts for lightning storms,
hurricanes and even severe heat.
IOOC provided the high-frequency radar
to track the movement of oil on surface currents.
Industries produced innovations, such as the underwater gliders that we saw in
the demonstration,
provided data to track the movement of the oil through the water column.
All this information was vital to effective decision making during the
spill.
The National Weather Service is eager to continue this partnership.
We also need our system partners, so I'm looking forward to this workshop to
provide key information that will help us get closer to the vision of a
Weather-Ready Nation.
A Weather-Ready Nation requires regionally-scaled collaborations
and observations, data delivery and product development.
The needs don't stop at the regional or national levels.
As I mentioned, we recognize the need for more data
in the atmospheric observations over the oceans.
Our National Centers for Environmental Prediction -- which is where the IOOC
testbed will be --
they are performing global ocean and atmospheric modeling and real-time data
dissemination
that enables IOOC research and regional and local
modeling efforts.
We continue to establish international partnerships as well
for remotely-sensed ocean data.
The better our global observations, the better the benefits throughout the world,
again, taking that pulse of our planet.
So in closing, the IOOC partnership has provided us with extremely valuable data.
Maintaining the system and pushing improvements forward are important.
Our collaboration is strong.
Our partnerships include those with IOOC in the industry,
giving us observations and together
creating effectiveness in meeting our regional stakeholder needs.
Most of the IOOC regional associations -- of which I know there are eleven --
work with the National Weather Service forecasts offices.
These collaborations provide data and model output for our forecasts, the
delivery of buoye data
through the National Data Buoy Center, and the joint development of products
and services.
IOOC is a strong partner and we're pleased to kick off this workshop
explore how it
and, regionally, NANOOS can strengthen and optimize our efforts.
I'm excited about this workshop and what it can accomplish to push our already
strong collaboration
and introduce new facets.
I'm looking forward to finding new ways we can work
collaboratively to build a Weather-Ready Nation.
And we need you to help us.
Thanks again for allowing me this opportunity to speak with you this
morning and I look forward to building a Weather-Ready Nation.
Thank you.