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Hello, this is Adam Baker, Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Peachtree
City with your weather briefing for the week of May 30th.
Well, many are probably wondering how long this pleasant weather will continue. As you
can see here in this map of surface features from the Weather Prediction Center, a persistent
ridge of high pressure has been situated across the southeast coast. South to southeasterly
flow of enhanced moisture around the high pressure system (marked by the blue arrow)
has been building into the area, and as this feature weakens and pushes farther east over
the next several days, we will likely see a slight to low chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms returning to the western and northern portions of the area... mainly Friday
and Saturday.
On the heels of the weakening high, there is a change coming to the current pattern
with an approaching frontal system. Shown here are forecast locations from the Weather
Prediction Center of a relatively slow-moving cold front beginning to influence the area
from the northwest on Sunday... then gradually push southeastward through the next several
days, before finally exiting the southeast portion of central Georgia by Tuesday.
The forecast models are in pretty good agreement with the timing and positioning of the front.
Shown here is the GFS solution on the left and the European solution on the right for
the surface features on Sunday morning. Simulated precipitation is shown as the shaded region.
Notice the wind shift in the plotted barbs along the front and area of precip draped
across the Tennessee valley as the system approaches NW Georgia.
By Monday morning, the models agree with the front nearly bisecting our forecast area as
it pushes into central Georgia.
Then exiting toward the far southeastern portion of central Georgia by Tuesday.
Overall we are expected relatively weak wind shear as the stronger dynamics remain north
of the area, though there will be decent moisture and instability along and ahead of this system.
With such an environment, we can expect the main impacts to be widespread showers and
thunderstorms along with isolated strong storms possible. The potential for strong storms
will be area-wide Sunday afternoon into evening with the main threats being gusty winds, small
hail, and brief heavy rain. Frequent lightning is also a threat. The greatest coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will be slowly shifting southeastward through Monday, and is forecast
to exit much of the area by Tuesday.
The 48-hour rainfall forecast valid Sunday through Monday night from the Weather Prediction
Center calls for near 0.75-1 inch across north GA, and 0.5-0.75 inch for central GA. While
this does not currently appear to be a significant rain event, there could be isolated higher
amounts with any storm development.
So in summary, the main impacts with the front will be widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Isolated strong storms are possible (mainly Sunday afternoon into evening) with the main
threats being frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rain. Total rainfall
amounts look to range from 3 quarters to 1 inch for north Georgia and half to 3 quarters
of an inch across central Georgia.
Behind the front, a weak high pressure system to the north will keep isolated precipitation
chances limited to the far southern portion of the area for midweek. Then a return of
south to southeasterly flow will allow for isolated afternoon storm potential next Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures are forecast to remain near normal through the forecast period...
with daytime highs staying mainly in the low 80s north to upper 80s south, and overnight
lows generally in the low 60s north to upper 60s south.
Now going beyond our main forecast period...
You may be wondering why I am showing the recent location of tropical depression Barbara,
the most recent storm to impact the central Pacific and far southeastern Mexico. Specialists
at the National Hurricane Center are forecasting this system to weaken and dissipate through
the end of the week, though continue to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to southeast Mexico.
Storm totals in excess of 25 inches are possible along with flash flooding and mudslides.
The long term models agree on the system lingering across the southern Gulf, shown here initially
with the GFS solution Friday morning. Notice the associated weak upper low pressure and
enhanced moisture field in the south.
By next Wednesday, the system continues to hang around the Yucatan Peninsula and crosses
into the Gulf...
Though the models diverge by next weekend as the GFS shows a stronger system pushing
into the Southeast and impacting our forecast area.
This contrasts greatly to the European solution, which typically verifies better in the long
term, as the system is much weaker and the moisture stays farther south across Florida.
Nonetheless, we will be monitoring future runs to see if guidance reaches better consistency.
Much could change this far into the forecast period, so please stay up to date!
Again, to recap... the main feature in the forecast period will be a slow-moving cold
front bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday through Monday night. Isolated
strong storms will be possible with gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rain along
with frequent lightning. And there remains uncertainty with a potential Gulf system near
the end of next week.
Thank you for viewing this week's webinar, and we'll see you next week!