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>> POST 9/11...
POST BOSTON, ARE WE ANY CLOSER
TO UNDERSTANDING TERRORISTS?
ARE THEIR MOTIVATIONS POLITICAL
OR PERSONAL?
NEXT ON "GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES."
>> THIS IS
"GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES," WITH
PULITZER PRIZE-WINNING
COMMENTATOR JOHN BERSIA.
>> WELCOME TO
"GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES."
WHAT MAKES A TERRORIST A
TERRORIST?
EXCEPT FOR THE TRULY PSYCHOTIC,
IT APPEARS THEY HAVE TO BE MADE,
NOT BORN.
WE CAN ALMOST UNDERSTAND
INDIVIDUALS ENLISTING TO FIGHT
WHAT THEY SEE AS POLITICAL OR
RELIGIOUS REPRESSION, BUT WHAT
TURNS A BOSTON HIGH-SCHOOL KID
INTO A BOMBER?
COUNTERTERRORISM RESEARCHER
BERNARD FINEL THINKS IT OFTEN
COMES DOWN TO A PERSONAL CRISIS
THAT CAN MAKE AN INDIVIDUAL
ACTUALLY EAGER TO BE
MANIPULATED.
HE IS AN ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF
NATIONAL SECURITY AT THE
NATIONAL WAR COLLEGE IN
WASHINGTON, D.C.
WELCOME TO THE SHOW, BERNARD.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
>> YOU HAVE BEEN IMMERSED IN
TERRORISM STUDIES FOR YEARS.
TAKE US INTO THE MIND OF A
TERRORIST IN A VERY GENERAL WAY.
WHAT MAKES A TERRORIST?
>> WELL, THAT'S A TOUGH QUESTION
BECAUSE MOST OF WHAT WE THINK
ABOUT CAUSING TERRORISM ARE
THESE MACRO-PHENOMENONS -- BIG
THINGS, POVERTY, AMERICAN
FOREIGN POLICY, IDEOLOGY --
THINGS WHICH AFFECT MILLIONS AND
MILLIONS OF PEOPLE.
AND, YET, IF YOU LOOK AT THE
NUMBER OF TERRORISTS OUT
THERE -- PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY GO
AHEAD AND USE VIOLENCE, KILL
INNOCENT PEOPLE -- IT'S A VERY
SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE.
AND SO TRYING TO EXPLAIN SORT OF
MICRO-PHENOMENON -- RIGHT? --
PHENOMENON INVOLVING A SMALL
NUMBER OF PEOPLE USING THESE
BIG, BROAD TRENDS -- IS
ANALYTICALLY DIFFICULT.
I MEAN, BY THE LOGIC OF THE
SITUATION, IF IDEOLOGY WEREN'T A
BIG PROBLEM, YOU SHOULD SEE
MILLIONS OF PEOPLE FIGHTING IN
GROUPS LIKE AL-QAEDA INSTEAD OF
THE HUNDREDS THAT YOU ACTUALLY
SEE IN REAL LIFE.
SO, IT STRIKES ME THAT THE LOGIC
OF THAT SUGGESTS THAT,
FUNDAMENTALLY, IT'S ABOUT SOME
SORT OF PERSONALITY CRISIS.
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT PEOPLE WHO
HAVE CERTAIN KINDS OF EMOTIONAL
NEEDS WHO VERY OFTEN HAVE SEEN
SOME SORT OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE
WAY THAT THEIR LIVES ARE
RUNNING.
YOU KNOW, YOU OFTEN SEE
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN COUNTRIES
WHERE YOU SEE PEOPLE BEING
SELF-RADICALIZED.
THAT OFTEN COMES AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF FAILED
RELATIONSHIPS, BANKRUPTCIES, JOB
LOSSES, LOSSES OF FAMILY
MEMBERS -- PARENTS AND OTHER
THINGS -- THAT DISRUPT THE DAILY
LIVES AND PATTERNS THAT PEOPLE
HAVE BUILT UP AND THEN MAKE THEM
VULNERABLE TO THIS KIND OF
EXTREMIST BEHAVIOR.
>> WOULD POLITICALLY VIOLENT
GROUPS HAVE THE CAPACITY TO
ABSORB MILLIONS OF PEOPLE?
>> NO, AND I THINK THAT'S ONE OF
THE THINGS WE NEED TO KEEP IN
MIND, IS THAT THIS ISN'T A MASS
MOVEMENT.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE PEOPLE WHO
BECOME MEMBERS OF VARIOUS
RADICAL ISLAMIST GROUPS, IN
PARTICULAR, IT'S OFTEN A VERY
CLOSE-KNIT COMMUNITY.
IT'S PEOPLE WHO ARE JOINING THE
GROUP BECAUSE THEIR UNCLE IS A
MEMBER OR THEIR BROTHER OR
THERE'S SOME SORT OF A LONG-TERM
FAMILY CONNECTION.
YOU VERY OFTEN SEE NEIGHBORHOOD
CLUSTERS, WHERE YOU'LL SEE A
VERY SMALL NEIGHBORHOOD WILL
PRODUCE 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 PEOPLE
WHO JOIN THE MOVEMENT.
THAT'S BECAUSE THEY ALL KNOW
EACH OTHER.
THEY WALK IN THE SAME CIRCLES.
AND, VERY OFTEN, THAT'S WHAT
MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR US
TO ENGAGE IN COUNTERTERRORISM
BECAUSE PENETRATING THESE GROUPS
IS VERY, VERY DIFFICULT BECAUSE
IT'S NOT SOME SORT OF A MASS
RECRUITMENT.
IT'S A VERY TARGETED,
PERSONALITY, RELATIONSHIP-BASED
KIND OF SITUATION.
AND SO, THERE PROBABLY ARE OUT
THERE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WHO
MIGHT BE WILLING, UNDER THE
RIGHT CIRCUMSTANCES, TO JOIN A
TERRORIST ORGANIZATION.
BUT TERRORIST GROUPS DON'T HAVE
THE CAPACITY OR, FRANKLY, THE
INTEREST IN TRYING TO BRING IN
THAT MANY PEOPLE.
THAT JUST DOESN'T SERVE THEIR
PURPOSES, EITHER.
>> YOU USED TO WRITE A VERY
USEFUL ANNUAL PUBLICATION CALLED
"ARE WE WINNING?" WHICH GAVE A
LOT OF US INSIGHTS INTO WHERE WE
WERE RELATIVE TO THE TERRORISTS
AND THE STRUGGLE, OR WHAT USED
TO BE CALLED "THE WAR."
ARE WE GETTING BETTER AT
ASSESSING TERRORIST CAPABILITIES
OR WORSE?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S
INTERESTING IS THAT, YOU KNOW,
THE FARTHER WE GET AWAY FROM
9/11, THE MORE DIFFICULT IT IS
TO GET SUFFICIENT RESOURCES TO
ACTUALLY KEEP TRACK OF THE
PROBLEM.
WE STILL SPEND A GREAT DEAL, OF
COURSE, ON COUNTERTERRORISM
ACTIVITIES.
THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY IS
DRAMATICALLY LARGER THAN IT WAS
BEFORE 9/11, BUT A LOT OF THE
PUBLIC RESOURCES HAVE SORT OF
DIMINISHED.
THE GOVERNMENT USED TO PUT OUT A
REAL-TIME DATABASE, THE
WORLDWIDE INCIDENTS TRACKING
SYSTEM, PUBLISHED BY THE NCTC,
THE NATIONAL
COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER, THAT
NO LONGER IS BEING UPDATED FOR
BUDGETARY REASONS.
AND, SIMILARLY, IF YOU LOOK AT
FUNDING FROM PRIVATE FOUNDATIONS
TO DO THIS KIND OF RESEARCH,
IT'S ALSO DIMINISHED TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT.
PEOPLE HAVE, I GUESS, TERRORISM
FATIGUE, AND SO IT'S SURPRISING,
BUT OVER THE LAST THREE OR FOUR
YEARS, I'D SAY, THE RESOURCES
AVAILABLE TO INDEPENDENT
TERRORISM RESEARCHERS TO
ACTUALLY GET US INTO THE TRENDS,
IN PARTICULAR THE ARROGATE
TRENDS, HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY.
>> IS IT GONNA TAKE ANOTHER
9/11-TYPE CATASTROPHE TO REMIND
US THAT THIS TYPE OF RESEARCH IS
NOT JUST INTERESTING, BUT
ESSENTIAL?
>> IT MAY, BUT, YOU KNOW,
HOPEFULLY, YOU KNOW, THAT'S NOT
THE KIND OF TRADE-OFF THAT'S
CERTAINLY WORTH IT BY ANY
STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.
YOU KNOW, WE DO HAVE THE ABILITY
TO MAKE SOME JUDGMENTS, RIGHT,
IN THE SENSE THAT THERE'S
CERTAIN KINDS OF ATTACKS THAT
WE'RE REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT AND
OTHERS THAT WE ARE MUCH LESS
CONCERNED ABOUT.
AND THAT'S ALWAYS BEEN ONE OF
THE CHALLENGES BECAUSE WHEN YOU
LOOK AT SORT OF THE BROAD
TERRORISM DATABASES, THEY
CAPTURE ALL KINDS OF THINGS
FROM, YOU KNOW, AN ASSASSINATION
OF A MINOR PROVINCIAL OFFICIAL
SOMEWHERE IN AFGHANISTAN TO A
MAJOR ATTACK IN A WESTERN CITY.
AND THESE ARE VERY DIFFERENT
ANIMALS IN TERMS OF THE THREAT
THEY POSE TO THE UNITED STATES
IN PARTICULAR, TO OUR WAY OF
LIFE, AND TO OUR ALLIES.
AND SO, IF WE'RE LOOKING AT
TRACKING SORT OF THE BIG EVENTS,
THOSE ARE PRETTY VISIBLE.
YOU CAN SEE THEM ANYWAY.
YOU CAN SORT OF AGGREGATE THEM
INDIVIDUALLY, AND FROM THAT WE
DO HAVE AN ABILITY TO MAKE A
JUDGMENT THAT PERHAPS AL-QAEDA'S
CAPACITY TO WAGE THESE KIND OF
ATTACKS -- LAUNCH ATTACKS --
AGAINST HARD TARGETS IN THE
WESTERN CITIES, IN WESTERN
COUNTRIES SEEMS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED.
AT THE VERY LEAST, WE'RE NOT
SEEING VERY MANY OF THESE
ATTACKS.
BUT WHAT WE DON'T HAVE IS A
SENSE OF WHAT IS THE OVERALL
HEALTH OF THE ISLAMIST MOVEMENT
BROADLY.
I MEAN, YOU KNOW, THE SIZE OF
THE INSURGENCIES THAT ARE
OPERATING NOW, INCREASINGLY IN,
SAY, WEST AFRICA AND IN THE
MAGHREB REGION -- THAT'S THE
KIND OF DATA WHICH WOULD BE SORT
OF INTERESTING TO HAVE A SENSE
ABOUT THE BASE LINE ABOUT HOW
MUCH ACTIVITY'S OUT THERE.
AND THAT'S A LITTLE HARDER TO
GET A HANDLE ON.
>> WE SEEM TO FIND THAT THE
PRESENCE OF THESE ORGANIZATIONS
AND MANY OF THE REVOLUTIONS THAT
ARE TAKING PLACE IN THE ARAB
WORLD, HAS THE ARAB SPRING BEEN
USEFUL FOR THESE ORGANIZATIONS
AS FAR AS GETTING INTO THE
CONVERSATION, OR HAS IT CAUSED
MORE DISRUPTION THAN BENEFIT?
>> THAT'S A HARD QUESTION TO
ANSWER.
I THINK PART OF THE ANSWER HAS
TO BE, "WE'LL SEE OVER A PERIOD
OF TIME," BECAUSE, IN PART, IT'S
GONNA DEPEND ON WHAT THE
ARAB SPRING TURNS INTO IN TERMS
OF POLITICAL CHANGE.
DO WE END UP WITH JUST MORE
REPRESSION?
DO WE END UP WITH BROKEN STATES?
OR DO WE END UP OVER A PERIOD OF
TIME WITH SOME SORT OF
DEMOCRATIC SYSTEMS EMERGING THAT
ARE STABLE, THAT REFLECT POPULAR
WILL, AND THAT, AS A CONSEQUENCE
OF THAT, PERHAPS ARE LESS
CORRUPT, MORE PRONE TO ECONOMIC
GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY.
ALL THOSE KINDS OF THINGS WOULD
BE GOOD LONG-TERM BENEFITS,
CERTAINLY.
IN THE SHORT RUN, THOUGH, WHAT
WE'VE SEEN IN VARIOUS PLACES IS
A BREAKDOWN OF THE STATE
SECURITY APPARATUS.
IN FACT, THE SECURITY APPARATUS
IN MANY ARAB COUNTRIES, EVEN
THOUGH IT WAS AUTHORITARIAN, WAS
ALSO ANTI-ISLAMIST AND
ANTI-AL-QAEDA-TYPE GROUPS.
AND SO, THERE IS CLEARLY AN
OPENING THAT'S EMERGED, AND YOU
SEE IT MOST CLEARLY IN PLACES
LIKE LIBYA AND SYRIA WHERE UNDER
THE GUISE OF, YOU KNOW, FIRST
THE REGIME CHANGE AND NOW, IN
SYRIA, A CIVIL WAR, WE'VE SEEN
A SORT OF DRAMATIC UPTAKE IN THE
ACTIVITIES OF RADICAL
AL-QAEDA-AFFILIATE OR
AL-QAEDA-INSPIRED KIND OF
MOVEMENTS AND GROUPS.
>> LET'S GO BACK TO THE THREAT
ISSUE.
AFTER 9/11, EVERYONE SEEMED TO
BE KEEN ON ANALYZING THE THREAT,
KEEPING ABREAST OF DEVELOPMENTS
IN OTHER COUNTRIES, TRYING TO
UNDERSTAND MORE THAN EVER WHAT
WAS GOING ON AROUND THE WORLD.
ARE WE AT RISK OF LULLING
OURSELVES INTO A FALSE SENSE OF
SECURITY AGAIN?
INTO THINKING THAT THE THREAT
HAS DIMINISHED TO THE POINT
THAT WE NO LONGER NEED TO WORRY
ABOUT IT?
>> NOW, THE CHALLENGE WITH
MEASURING THE THREAT IS AT --
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT A VERY
SMALL NUMBER OF EVENTS.
AND THEY'RE VERY DEVASTATING
WHEN THEY DO OCCUR.
I MEAN, 9/11, OF COURSE, YOU
KNOW, SHAPES IN MANY WAYS OUR
FOREIGN POLICY FOR A DECADE,
SHAPES THE WAY WE STILL INTERACT
WITH OUR GOVERNMENT.
IT'S DRAMATICALLY CHANGED OUR
NOTIONS OF PRIVACY DOMESTICALLY.
IT PLAYS A ROLE EVERY SINGLE DAY
IN OUR LIVES STILL TO THIS DAY.
TREMENDOUS IMPACT OF A SINGLE
EVENT -- 19 MEN WITH BOX
CUTTERS -- AND MAKING THE
CONNECTION BETWEEN THOSE TWO AND
SAYING, "WELL, IS IT WORTH IT?
ARE WE SPENDING TOO MUCH OR TOO
LITTLE?" THAT'S REALLY A VERY
DIFFICULT QUESTION TO JUDGE.
IT'S POSSIBLE TO ARGUE THAT WE
AREN'T PAYING ENOUGH ATTENTION
TO THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF A
GROUP FROM OUTSIDE ATTACKING US
AT HOME.
ON THE OTHER HAND, ONE COULD
ALSO ARGUE THAT EVEN AFTER 13
YEARS, WE'RE STILL SPENDING SO
MANY MORE RESOURCES -- WE STILL
HAVE SUCH A LARGE
COUNTERTERRORISM KIND OF
PRESENCE TRAINING AT LOCAL
ORGANIZATION -- LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT ARE FOCUSED ON THIS
MUCH MORE THAN THEY WERE BEFORE
9/11.
THE INTEL COMMUNITY'S MUCH
LARGER AND MUCH MORE FOCUSED ON
THESE ISSUES.
ANYWAY, THE POINT IS THAT WE MAY
ALREADY -- EVEN IF WE WERE TO
LULL A LITTLE BIT AND BECOME
LESS FOCUSED ON IT, WE MAY
ALREADY STILL BE OVER INVESTING
IN COUNTERTERRORISM AT HOME BY
SOME METRICS.
>> THESE SELF-RADICALIZED
INDIVIDUALS -- DO YOU SEE THAT
AS A GROWING THREAT IN THE
UNITED STATES?
>> WELL, AGAIN, IT'S ONE OF
THESE THINGS WHICH IS HARD
BECAUSE YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT A
VERY SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE, BUT
ANY TIME THAT THEY END UP
ACTING, IT'S INHERENTLY
DEVASTATING.
SO, IS IT A GROWING THREAT?
I DON'T KNOW.
IT IS A THREAT?
ABSOLUTELY.
AND IT'S A THREAT WHICH IS JUST
VERY, VERY HARD TO GET A HANDLE
ON BECAUSE, AS A PRACTICAL
MATTER, SELF-RADICALIZATION IS
RELATIVELY EASY.
YOU GET SOME SORT OF A LIFE
CRISIS.
AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, YOU
KNOW, A BROKEN MARRIAGE, A
BANKRUPTCY, A LOST JOB, AND
SUDDENLY, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE WHO
WERE ON THE FRINGES BECOME MORE
RADICALIZED.
THEY BECOME, YOU KNOW -- THEY
BEGIN TO LOOK FOR REASONS AND
JUSTIFICATIONS AND MEANING FOR
THEIR LIVES.
AND THERE'S TONS OF MATERIAL OUT
THERE.
IT'S NOT AS IF THERE ARE MANY
ACTIVE AL-QAEDA RECRUITERS IN
NEIGHBORHOODS AND COMMUNITIES,
BUT ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS GO
ONLINE AND FIND PLENTY OF
RESOURCES THAT ARE GOING TO
EXPLAIN, "WELL, IT WASN'T REALLY
YOUR FAULT.
YOU KNOW, YOUR MARRIAGE BROKE
DOWN BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW,
WESTERN -- THE BREAKDOWN OF
WESTERN VALUES THAT MADE IT
IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A MARRIAGE.
YOUR LIFE IS FALLING APART
BECAUSE OF SOME SORT OF
PREDATORY STRUCTURE OF THE
AMERICAN GOVERNMENT."
ANYWAY, THERE'S LOTS OF THINGS
WHICH ARE EXCUSED, EXPLAIN AWAY
THE PROBLEMS THAT PEOPLE HAVE.
AND SO, IT'S A PROBLEM, BUT I'M
NOT SURE IT'S A PROBLEM THAT'S
ANY LARGER THAN ANY OTHER
PROBLEM THAT YOU SEE
DOMESTICALLY.
WE'VE SEEN A NUMBER OF INSTANCES
OF GUN VIOLENCE -- MASS
SHOOTINGS AND SO ON.
I'M NOT SURE THERE'S ANY
PARTICULAR REASON TO TREAT THOSE
AS SORT OF FUNDAMENTALLY
DIFFERENT FROM A PUBLIC POLICY
OR, IN SOME WAYS, A
PUBLIC-HEALTH KIND OF
PERSPECTIVE.
>> HOW DO DEVELOPMENTS SUCH AS
9/11 OR THE USE OF DRONES
AGAINST TERRORISTS IN SOUTHEAST
ASIA -- SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ASIA -- HOW DO THOSE PLAY INTO
THE MAKING OF TERRORISTS?
>> THERE'S KIND OF A
DEMONSTRATION EFFECT, AND, YOU
KNOW, YOU DO SEE AN UPTICK IN
TERRORIST RECRUITMENT AND
ACTIVITIES WHENEVER YOU SEE AN
ATTACK.
A SUCCESSFUL ATTACK ALWAYS MAKES
OTHER PEOPLE THINK, "WELL, WE
COULD DO THAT, TOO.
WE COULD ACCOMPLISH THAT, AS
WELL."
AND SO, YOU GET THIS KIND OF
DEMONSTRATION EFFECT AND
COPYCATS, FRANKLY, IS WHAT'S
GOING ON IN MANY CASES.
THE BIGGER ISSUE, I THINK,
REGARDING 9/11 IS THE ISSUE OF
TRANSNATIONAL NETWORKS, WHERE
YOU HAVE SOME SORT OF A
COMMAND-AND-CONTROL STRUCTURE
WHERE THERE IS SOMEONE -- A
BIN LADEN, FOR EXAMPLE -- WHO IS
STANDING THERE AND ACTUALLY
ALLOCATING RESOURCES, BRINGING
PEOPLE TOGETHER TO TRAIN THEM,
AUTHORIZING PLOTS, CALLING UPON
RESOURCES FROM A VARIETY OF
PARTS OF THE WORLD AND USING
THEM IN A VERY TARGETED MANNER.
I THINK IN SOME WAYS WE'VE SEEN
A REDUCTION IN THAT SIMPLY
BECAUSE THOSE NETWORKS ARE
HARDER TO MAINTAIN IN A MUCH
MORE HOSTILE COUNTERTERRORISM
ENVIRONMENT, WHERE THE
UNITED STATES IS PAYING MUCH
MORE ATTENTION, USING A LOT OF
STATE RESOURCES TO TRACK AND
MONITOR THE ACTIVITIES OF
POTENTIAL TERRORISTS BUT IN ALSO
USING TARGETED KILLINGS TO KILL
LARGE NUMBERS OF THEM.
AND WHILE ANY ONE TERRORIST, OF
COURSE, IS REPLACEABLE, EVERY
TIME ONE OF THEM DIES, IT MAKES
THINGS A LITTLE BIT MORE
DIFFICULT FOR THEM.
IT BREAKS DOWN THAT NETWORK THAT
WAS BUILT UP AROUND THAT PERSON.
THE PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS THAT
WERE SO IMPORTANT TO MAKING THAT
ORGANIZATION FUNCTION -- THAT
CELL FUNCTION -- FRAY.
IT INDUCES THESE ORGANIZATIONS
TO BE MUCH MORE PARANOID, MUCH
MORE CAUTIOUS.
THEY CAN'T USE THE SAME KIND OF
COMMUNICATIONS NETWORKS THAT
THEY WERE IN THE PAST.
THEY HAVE TO RELY ON
FACE-TO-FACE MEETINGS, WHICH,
AGAIN, MAKES THEM EASIER TO
TRACK IN SOME WAYS -- COURIERS,
WHICH MAKES IT HARDER FOR THEM
TO COMMUNICATE ACROSS BORDERS.
IT JUST MAKES IT HARDER FOR THEM
TO BE ABLE TO PULL ALL THEIR
PLOTS TOGETHER, WHICH I THINK IS
ONE REASON WHY WHAT WE'VE SEEN
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS HAS
BEEN THE INCREASING
FRAGMENTATION OF AL-QAEDA, WHERE
THERE IS NO LONGER, REALLY, AS
FAR AS I CAN TELL, AN AL-QAEDA
CENTRAL THAT'S ABLE TO ACTUALLY
ISSUE BINDING ORDERS AND MAKE
PLOTS ACTUALLY COME TO FRUITION.
INSTEAD, WHAT IT SEEMS IS EVERY
ONCE IN A WHILE, YOU GET A
CAPTURED MESSAGE THAT BECOMES
PUBLIC, LIKE THE ONE THAT CAUSED
OUR EMBASSIES TO SHUT DOWN
EARLIER THIS YEAR, THAT MAKE IT
SEEM AS IF THERE WAS AN ORDER
GIVEN FROM AL-QAEDA CENTRAL TO
ATTACK.
AND YOU REALIZE, WELL, NOTHING
HAPPENS.
WHY HAS NOTHING HAPPENED?
BECAUSE THEY'RE PUSHING A
STRING.
THEY HAVE ACTUALLY NO COMMAND
AND CONTROL.
BUT THAT SAID, WHAT THAT MEANS
IS THAT YOU HAVE LOTS OF LOCAL
ORGANIZATIONS, SMALLER GROUPS,
THAT ARE NOW SORT OF FREE
AGENTS, AND AS FREE AGENTS,
THEY'RE COMPETING WITH EACH
OTHER FOR RESOURCES, FOR
PRESTIGE.
THEY WANT TO BE THE TOP DOG,
SAY, IN THE MAGHREB.
THEY WANT TO BE THE TOP DOG,
SAY, IN WEST AFRICA OR
EAST AFRICA.
AND SO, IT CREATES A DANGEROUS
DYNAMIC WHERE THESE
ORGANIZATIONS ARE TRYING TO
PROVE THAT THEY ARE, YOU KNOW,
THE TRUE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
MOVEMENT.
>> BUT THEY'RE MORE LIKELY TO BE
A THREAT IN A PARTICULAR COUNTRY
OR A REGION THAN TO THE ENTIRE
WORLD.
>> EXACTLY, AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE
SEEING A LOT OF THIS GOING ON,
WHERE YOU'RE SEEING LOCALIZED
ATTACKS.
AND, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE WILL POINT
OUT, FOR EXAMPLE, THE ATTACK ON
THE BENGHAZI CONSULATE AS BEING
A SIGN OF THE RESILIENCE AND
CAPACITY OF AL-QAEDA.
IN SOME WAYS, IT IS, OR OF
AL-QAEDA-INSPIRED GROUPS, BUT
YOU'RE STILL TALKING ABOUT, AT
THAT POINT, A COUPLE OF DOZEN
MEN WITH SMALL ARMS ATTACKING AN
ISOLATED, POORLY DEFENDED
OUTPOST OF AMERICAN POWER.
THAT'S A FAR CRY FROM A
9/11-STYLE PLOT WHERE YOU HAVE
CELLS OPERATING IN HAMBURG AND
JAKARTA, THEY'RE IN FLORIDA,
THEY'RE IN NEW YORK, THEY'RE
COORDINATING MULTIPLE PLANES,
THEY HAVE BANK ACCOUNTS WHERE
$500,000-ISH OF MONEY ARE
FLOWING AROUND, THEY'RE RENTING
APARTMENTS.
IT'S VERY DIFFERENT TO GATHER
TWO DOZEN OF YOUR ARMED BUDDIES
AND GO ATTACK AN ISOLATED SPOT,
AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT WE'RE
SEEING MORE OF.
AND THAT'S VERY DANGEROUS WHEN
PEOPLE HAPPEN TO BE THERE, AND
BECAUSE THE UNITED STATES HAS
GLOBAL INTERESTS AND OUR
CORPORATIONS HAVE GLOBAL
INTERESTS, IT DOES MEAN THAT
THERE ARE WESTERN TARGETS --
WESTERN DIPLOMATS.
IT MEANS THAT THERE ARE WESTERN
BUSINESSMEN, WESTERN WORKERS,
AND A VARIETY OF OTHER PEOPLE
WHO ARE VERY MUCH AT RISK, AND
FOR THEM, IT DOESN'T MATTER,
RIGHT?
I MEAN, IT'S JUST AS BAD A
PROBLEM IF YOU ARE WORKING IN AN
OIL FIELD IN LIBYA AND YOU GET
ATTACKED OR KIDNAPPED.
FOR YOU, FOR YOUR FAMILY, THAT'S
AS BAD AS IF YOU WERE KILLED AT
THE FINISH LINE OF THE BOSTON
MARATHON OR ANYWHERE ELSE.
>> WHAT IS YOUR ASSESSMENT OF
HOW POLITICALLY VIOLENT GROUPS
VIEW THE UNITED STATES?
THERE WAS A TIME WHEN THOSE
GROUPS USED TO, I THINK,
MISINTERPRET THE CAPABILITIES
AND LIKELY RESPONSE OF THE
UNITED STATES TO TERRORIST
ATTACKS, BUT IT SEEMS THAT WE'VE
REALLY GOTTEN THEIR ATTENTION
WITH THE USE OF DRONES.
THE DRONES SEEM TO BE SOMETHING
THAT DISTURB AND INTIMIDATE THEM
MORE SO THAN PAST EFFORTS.
>> WELL, IT'S PERSISTENT, AND IT
CAN HAPPEN ANY TIME, AND I THINK
CERTAINLY, YOU KNOW, THERE'S
ALWAYS BEEN THIS DEBATE OVER
WHETHER WE WERE ATTACKED ON 9/11
BECAUSE WE WERE SEEN AS BEING
WEAK, RIGHT?
THAT WE FAILED TO RESPOND IN THE
PAST AND WE TEMPTED AGGRESSION
BY FAILING TO BE SUFFICIENTLY
PROACTIVE IN OUR RESPONSES TO
TERRORISM.
BUT THE COUNTERARGUMENT, OF
COURSE, IS THAT IF YOU ACTUALLY
ASK, YOU KNOW, THE PEOPLE WHO
ARE IN JIHADIST ORGANIZATIONS,
"WHY DO YOU HATE AMERICA?"
THEY DON'T SAY IT'S BECAUSE
WE'RE WEAK.
THEY ALWAYS SAY, "WELL, IT'S
BECAUSE YOU'RE AN OCTOPUS.
YOU'RE TOO STRONG.
YOU'RE CONSTANTLY GETTING
INVOLVED IN OUR LIVES.
YOU'RE PROPPING UP REGIMES.
YOU ARE LEADING TO OPPRESSION IN
OUR COUNTRIES.
YOU'RE TOO INVOLVED."
THAT SAID, I THINK AT THE VERY
LEAST, THERE WAS ALWAYS A SENSE
THAT AMERICAN RESPONSES WOULD BE
PUNCTUATED, RIGHT?
THAT THERE MIGHT BE A U.S.
RETALIATION FOR SOME SORT OF ACT
OF VIOLENCE, BUT IT WOULD BE
SORT OF PREDICTABLE.
THERE WOULD BE A BUILDUP, AN
ANNOUNCEMENT.
IT WOULD HAPPEN, THEN YOU'D HAVE
TO WEATHER THE STORM FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME, AND THEN IT
WOULD END AND YOU'D GO BACK TO
YOUR ORIGINAL PLOTTING.
AND I THINK THAT WAS EASIER FOR
THOSE ORGANIZATIONS TO DEAL WITH
AS OPPOSED TO SORT OF WHAT WE'RE
SEEING NOWADAYS WHICH IS THAT
IT'S THIS SORT OF GRINDING,
PERVASIVE, CONTINUAL THREAT THAT
THEY FEEL THAT THEY'RE UNDER AND
ARE, IN FACT, UNDER.
SO, THERE'S CERTAINLY SOME
BENEFITS TO THAT.
BUT BY THE SAME TOKEN, THIS SORT
OF PERSISTENT AMERICAN RESPONSE,
THE FACT THAT AT ANY MOMENT A
DRONE MIGHT LAUNCH A MISSILE,
DROP A BOMB, ON A TARGET OR THAT
SPECIAL FORCES MIGHT ARRIVE AND
SHOOT UP A HOUSE -- THAT CREATES
ALSO THIS SENSE OF PERVASIVE
INSECURITY.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE PUBLIC
OPINION POLLS IN PLACES LIKE
PAKISTAN, YEMEN, ELSEWHERE,
PEOPLE WILL SAY THAT THAT IS ONE
OF THE MAJOR REASONS THAT THEY
ARE ANTI-AMERICAN, THAT THEY
RESENT AMERICAN POWER, AMERICAN
INFLUENCE, AMERICAN BEHAVIOR.
SO, IT'S VERY HARD TO
DISENTANGLE THAT.
PEOPLE DON'T LIKE IT.
IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH OF AN
AFFECT IT HAS ON MACRO PUBLIC
OPINION.
CLEARLY, IT SERVES TO DISCOURAGE
AT LEAST SOME KINDS OF BEHAVIOR
AND ORGANIZATIONS,
ORGANIZATIONAL FUNCTIONS BY
TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS.
BUT BY THE SAME TOKEN, IT MAY
ALSO SORT OF JUSTIFY THEIR
EXISTENCE BECAUSE THEY SAY,
"LOOK, AFTER ALL, WE'RE
CONSTANTLY UNDER ATTACK.
HOW CAN YOU DENY US OUR RIGHT TO
SELF-DEFENSE?"
>> DO YOU FEEL THAT COMMUNITIES
IN THE UNITED STATES ARE
ADEQUATELY PREPARED TO DEAL WITH
POLITICALLY VIOLENT ACTS?
WE HAD THE CASE OF
THE BOSTON MARATHON, BUT DOES IT
VARY FROM CITY TO CITY OR IN
GENERAL WHETHER IT'S BOSTON,
ATLANTA, LOS ANGELES, CHICAGO,
ARE WE BETTER ABLE TO DEAL WITH
THESE THREATS THAN WE WERE
BEFORE 9/11?
>> I THINK SO.
AND WE'VE SEEN MUCH BETTER
TRAINING OF FIRST RESPONDERS,
YOU KNOW, PEOPLE WHO MUCH MORE
SORT OF AWARENESS OF CHEMICAL,
BIOLOGICAL KIND OF THREATS SO
THAT YOU DON'T GET THE POTENTIAL
OF MASS CASUALTIES.
YOU'RE ABLE TO CONTAIN THOSE
KIND OF THREATS MUCH MORE
QUICKLY.
ALMOST ALL MAJOR POLICE
DEPARTMENTS HAVE
COUNTERTERRORISM SQUADS.
THEY'RE LIASING QUITE CLOSELY
WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.
I'D SAY THE ONE THING ABOUT
PREPARATION, THOUGH, IS THAT, IN
SOME WAYS, THERE'S BEEN A
STRANGE ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES.
AND THIS IS THE NATURE OF OUR
GOVERNMENTAL SYSTEM, OUR FEDERAL
SYSTEM, IS THAT THE MINUTE THAT
THERE'S A PROGRAM, EVERYONE
WANTS A PIECE OF THE PIE.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE MANY,
MANY TOWNS IN THE UNITED STATES
WHICH HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACQUIRE
VARIOUS KINDS OF
COUNTERTERRORISM FUNDING, WHICH
PROBABLY AREN'T ON ANYONE'S MOST
LIKELY -- 100 MOST LIKELY
TERRORIST TARGETS, YOU KNOW?
AND SO, THERE'S ALMOST CERTAINLY
A MISALLOCATION OF RESOURCES AS
WELL, WHERE FOR MANY YEARS,
ALMOST ANYBODY WHO WANTED TO GET
A FEDERAL GRANT TO DO SOMETHING,
WHATEVER IT WAS, WOULD SLAP THE
LABEL "COUNTERTERRORISM" OR
"DOMESTIC PREPAREDNESS" ON IT
AND, AS A RESULT, GET FUNDING
FOR PROGRAMS WHICH MAY OR MAY
NOT, IN FACT, CONTRIBUTE TO AN
OVERALL PUBLIC SAFETY BECAUSE
THEY JUST DON'T DEAL WITH WHERE
THE THREATS REALLY EXIST.
>> MM-HMM.
I'D LIKE TO GO BACK TO SOMETHING
YOU REFERENCED EARLIER.
WE WERE TALKING ABOUT RESEARCH
NOT BEING AS READILY AVAILABLE
ON THE SUBJECT AS BEFORE.
IS THAT PUTTING US AT A
DISADVANTAGE AND TO THE EXTENT
THAT SOME OF THIS IS CAUSED BY
BUDGETARY PROBLEMS AND
GOVERNMENT OPENINGS AND
CLOSINGS?
ARE WE REALLY SHOOTING OURSELVES
IN THE FOOT?
>> I THINK CERTAINLY WE ARE IN
SORT OF A MACRO SENSE.
I MEAN, THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT
ALL OF OUR BUDGET SQUABBLES
HAVE -- BECAUSE OF HOW
DISORGANIZED THEY ARE, YOU KNOW,
ABOUT -- YOU GET SEQUESTER GOING
ON AND ACROSS-THE-BOARD CUTS.
THERE'S NO STRATEGY.
THERE'S NO REAL WEIGHING OF
WHERE RESOURCES OUGHT TO GO.
AND I THINK CERTAINLY THAT'S A
MAJOR PROBLEM THAT WE AS A
NATION FACE.
I DON'T THINK IT'S LIMITED,
HOWEVER, TO THE COUNTERTERRORISM
FIELD.
I THINK THAT THIS IS ONE OF THE
PROBLEMS THAT WE ARE DEALING
WITH AS A COUNTRY WHERE THIS
LACK OF CONSENSUS ON HOW TO GO
FORWARD ABOUT SPENDING IN
GENERAL, TAXES IN GENERAL, LEADS
TO A LOT OF IRRATIONALITIES OF
VARIOUS SORTS.
SO, I THINK, YOU KNOW, THE
BIGGEST VALUE TO AN INFORMED
PUBLIC AND TO ACCESS TO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF RESEARCH WAS ALWAYS TO
BE ABLE TO SAY, "HEY, WE DON'T
JUST NEED TO TAKE THE WORD OF
THE ADMINISTRATION IN POWER, IN
OFFICE AT THE TIME, AS
DEFINITIVE.
WE CAN HOLD THEM TO SOME MORE
OBJECTIVE STANDARDS."
AND AS A RESULT, WE CAN TRY TO
DE-POLITICIZE JUDGMENTS ABOUT
WHERE COUNTERTERRORISM MEASURES
ARE EFFECTIVE OR NOT.
THE LESS RESEARCH THERE IS
AVAILABLE, THE LESS PUBLIC
DEBATE THERE IS AVAILABLE, THE
MORE TEMPTING IT IS GOING TO BE
FOR ANY GIVEN ADMINISTRATION TO
SPIN RECENT RESULTS IN
POLITICALLY CONVENIENT WAYS.
AND THERE WILL BE NO ABILITY FOR
THE MEDIA, FOR INDEPENDENT
SCHOLARS, FOR THE PUBLIC IN
GENERAL TO HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE
AND SAY, "WELL, HOLD ON A
MINUTE.
IF WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS TRUE,
THEN HOW COME 'X,' 'Y,' OR 'Z'
HAS OCCURRED?"
>> AT LEAST ONE EXPLANATION FOR
9/11 WAS THAT THE TERRORISTS
PERCEIVED US TO BE STRONG.
DO YOU THINK THEY STILL PERCEIVE
US TO BE STRONG AS WE GO THROUGH
THIS PERIOD OF INDECISION,
INEFFECTIVENESS, ET CETERA, ET
CETERA?
>> YOU KNOW, YOU'RE TALKING
ABOUT RADICALS, RIGHT, WHO ARE
LIVING IN THEIR OWN LITTLE
BUBBLE.
THEY RELY UPON THEIR OWN SELF
FOR THEIR NEWS SOURCES.
THEY'RE VERY INSULAR.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, WHAT THEY
THINK AT ANY GIVEN TIME MAY NOT
REALLY BE REFLECTIVE OF -- THERE
ARE PEOPLE WHO VERY OFTEN ARE
VERY TIED INTO VARIOUS
CONSPIRACY THEORIES.
SO, YOU KNOW, HOW THE WORLD
ACTUALLY IS OPERATING AND HOW
THEY PERCEIVE IT TO BE OPERATING
ARE OFTEN QUITE AT ODDS.
AND SO, I'M ALWAYS SORT OF
SKEPTICAL ABOUT PEOPLE WHO SAY,
"WELL, YOU KNOW, OUR
GOVERNMENTAL SHUTDOWN, THAT SENT
A SIGNAL THAT WE'RE NOT
CREDIBLE, THAT WE'RE WEAK TO THE
TERRORISTS."
YOU KNOW, THESE GUYS THINK THAT
THEY ARE LIVING DAY TO DAY FOR
GOD'S WILL, AND, YOU KNOW,
THEY'RE NOT REALLY -- THEIR
NARRATIVES, RIGHT, THE STORIES
THEY TELL ABOUT US AND ABOUT
THEMSELVES, ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT.
THEY'RE NOT REALLY THAT MUCH
AFFECTED BY DAY-TO-DAY EVENTS.
THEY'RE GOING TO TAKE WHATEVER
WE DO AS AN INDICATOR THAT
SUPPORTS THEIR PRE-EXISTING
PREFERENCES AND POSITIONS.
SO, YOU'RE RIGHT.
IF THE GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN,
THEY'LL SAY, "HA!
WE SHOWED THEM.
THE AMERICANS ARE WEAK.
OUR STRATEGY'S SUCCESSFUL."
IF WE DIDN'T SHUT DOWN BUT
INSTEAD EXPANDED OUR ACTIVITIES,
BECAME, YOU KNOW, MORE EFFECTIVE
IN LAUNCHING MORE, THEY'D SAY,
"HA! SEE?
THE AMERICANS ARE RUNNING SCARED
AND NOW THEY'RE USING MORE
VIOLENCE AGAINST US."
NO MATTER WHAT WE DO, THEY'RE
GOING TO SPIN IT IN A WAY THAT
SAYS THEY WERE RIGHT THE WHOLE
TIME AND THEY NEED TO KEEP UP
THE STRUGGLE.
THAT'S THE WAY THEIR MENTAL MAP
IS WORKING.
>> WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH,
BERNARD FINEL, FOR JOINING US
TODAY.
>> WELL, THANK YOU FOR HAVING
ME.
IT WAS A PLEASURE.
>> AND THANK YOU.
FROM "GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES," I'M
JOHN BERSIA, AND WE'LL SEE YOU
NEXT TIME.