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>> >>JOANNE: A STUDY BY THE SAN DIEGO REGIONAL CHAMBER OF COMMERCE FOUND THE WORST OF THE
RECESSION MAY BE OVER FOR SAN DIEGO, BUT IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ECONOMY
TO RURVE R RETURN TO PRE RECESSION LEVELS. JOINING ME TO GIVE US A STATUS REPORT ON THE
ECONOMY IS MARNY ***, CHIEF OF COMMERCE SANDAG. DID THE REPORT GET IT RIGHT, IS OUR ECONOMY
LOOKING BETTER AND BRIGHTER? >> >>JENNIFER TRACY: I THINK IT'S HEADED IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION, BUT I WOULDN'T GO SO FAR AS TO SAY WE'RE ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY.
A GOOD WAY TO FINALIZE THAT WOULD BE WHAT RATE OF GROWTH WE NEED TO ACHIEVE BEFORE WE'RE
SURE THE ECONOMY WILL RECEIVE A PRE RECESSION LEVEL WITHIN A SPECIFIC PERIOD OF TIME.
THAT'S ABOUT AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL, A 3ĘPERCENT RATE OF GROWTH CONSISTENTLY YEAR AFTER YEAR,
LOCALLY IT'S ABOUT A 4 TO 5ĘPERCENT RATE OF GROWTH.
WE'RE RUNNING AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL, ONE TO TWO PIRS AND LOCALLY SUB 3.
WE'RE NOT ON THE ROAD TO RECOVERY QUITE YET, AND WE CAN'T BE SURE AT THE RATES WE ARE ACHIEVING,
THAT THEY'LL RETURN TO THE PRE RECESSION LEVELS OR ANY TIME SOON.
>> >>JOANNE: LET'S TALK ABOUT THE MEASURES. WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND HOW WE
MEASURE T, WHAT ARE WE LOOKING AT? >> >>MARNEY ***: THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, RIGHT,
AND HOW IT'S DOING, HOW WE'RE ACHIEVING. A COUPLE THINGS STL, THE CHAIM CHAMBERS REPORT
MADE MENTION THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REES PTLY DECLINED SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT'S AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE THAT'S THAT'S SIEGE NLY ADJUSTED.
EVERY YEAR AROUND THIS TIME, THE INDUSTRIES HIRE PEOPLE.
IF YOU GO BACK THIS HAPPENS EVERY YEAR AT THIS TIME.
SO YOU HAVE TO BE CARE THAT MAJOR MOVEMENTS IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AREN'T A FUNCTION
OF SOMETHING THAT OCCURS EVERY YEAR. ANOTHER EXAMPLE MIGHT BE THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT SAN DIEGO'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS BEEN BELOW THE NATION.
SAN DIEGO I THINK BENEFITS AS WELL AS ORANGE COUNTY FROM A UNIQUE CONDITION.
A LOT OF THE PEOPLE WHO WERE EMPLOYED IN SAN DIEGO AND LOST THEIR JOBS WERE LIVING IN RIVERSIDE
OR MEXICO, THEY BECOME UNEMPLOYED AND GO HOME, WHERE THEY'RE COUNTED AS OPPOSED TO LEER IN
SAN DIEGO. BOTH ORANGE COUNTY AND SAN DIEGO'S UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE HAS BEEN BELOW THE NATIONAL LEVEL FOR THOSE TWO REASONS.
>> >>JOANNE: I NOTICED IN THE REPORT WHERE WE SAW JOB GROWTH AND WHERE WE SAW JOB LOSS.
I WAS A LITTLE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT IT SAID STATE AND LOCAL JOBS WERE INCREASED WHEREAS
FEDERAL JOBS DECREASED IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR. REALLY, AN INCREASE IN STATE AND LOCAL JOBS?
>> >>MARNEY ***: YEAH, THE STATE AND LOCAL JOBS ALLOT OF THOSE ARE TEACHERS, RIGHT? SO
AGAIN YOU'RE GOING TO SEE INCREASES THERE AT CERTAIN POINTS IN TIME.
SUMMER TIME YOU'RE GOING TO SEE DECREASES, AGAIN YOU HAVE TO GO BACK TO SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT.
ANOTHER PART OF JOB GROWTH WE NEED TO LOOK AT HERE, IS THAT THE JOB GROWTH HAS RECENTLY
OCCURRED, FOR EXAMPLE IN THE FIRST QUARTER, THEY MAKE A BIG DEAL OUT OF YEAR OR YEAR BEING
ABOUT 9,000 JOBS OR SO. LAST YEAR, 2011, WE WERE TRACKING AT ABOUT
20,000 JOB INCREASE. EACH YEAR, THE EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT,
THE KEEPER OF THE NUMBERS SURVEYS BUSINESSES AT THE END OF THE YEAR, USUALLY MARCH, AND
ASKS HOW THE YEAR WENT. AND WHEN THE NUMBERS CAME BACK, WE ACTUALLY
WERE ONLY UP 8,400 JOBS INSTEAD OF 20,000 JOBS.
DURING THE THIRD QUARTER WE SAW NEGATIVE EMPLOYMENT, ACTUALLY LOST JOBS.
BUT YOU NEVER READ THAT ANYWHERE. SO THIS NEXT YEAR, MARCH OF 2013, WHEN THE
2012 NUMBERS ARE REVISED I EXPECT THE SAME THING, WHAT LOOKS LIKE A ROSY OUT PUT TODAY
WILL BE LESS THAN BY THE TIME THOSE ARE ADJUSTED. >> >>JOANNE: I WANT TO TOUCH ON THE HOUSING
MARKET. I THINK FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE WE TEND TO MEASURE
OUR OWN PERSONAL WEALTH RELATIVE TO HOW OUR HOUSE PRICE IS.
WHAT DOES THE HOUSING MARKET LOOK LIKE? >> >>MARNEY ***: I THINK IT IS STABILIZED.
I'M STILL EXPECTING SOMEWHERE AROUND ZERO TO THREE TO FIVE PERCENT DECLINE FOR HOME
PRICES OVERALL FOR THIS YEAR, BUT THE MOST RECENT INDICATORS SHOW THAT HOME PRICES PR
BEGINNING TO PICK UP A LITTLE BIT ABOVE LAST YEAR'S LEVEL.
SO I MAY BE WRONG, BUT THE GROWTH RATE IN HOME PRICES WILL PROBABLY BE RELATIVELY SMALL,
ONE OR TWO PERCENT, SOMEWHERE IN THERE. THE IMPORTANT THING IS WE HAVEN'T MADE ANY
HEADWAY AT ALL ON THE EQUITY COMPONENT. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE STILL UNDER WATER, DON'T
HAVE NEAR THE EQUITY THEY DID BEFORE THE RECESSION STARTED.
THAT HAS A TENDENCY TO WAY ON PEOPLE'S EXPENDITURE PATTERNS, HOW COMFORTABLE ARE THEY THEY'LL
HAVE CUSHION TO FALL BACK IN TERMS OF HOME EQUITY.
I THINK THAT KEEPS CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES LOW PEOPLE FEAR NOT HAVING EQUITY IN THEIR
HOME. >> >>JOANNE: I WANT TO SEND PEOPLE TO KPBS.ORG,
WE HAVE LINKS TO THIS REPORT AND A MUCH LONGER CONVERSATION WITH YOU FROM MID DAY TODAY.