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Scientists from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service have issued
NOAAs 2013 Hurricane Season Outlook for the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Gulf of
Mexico and Caribbean Sea. This outlook is a general guide to the expected nature of
the upcoming hurricane season. The 2013 NOAA Hurricane Outlook for the Atlantic
Basin calls for a 70% chance of an above normal season, a 25% chance of a near normal season,
and a 5% chance of a below normal season. There is a 70 percent probability of 13 to
20 named tropical storms, 7 to 11 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes of category 3,
4 or 5 intensity. The seasonal number of tropical cyclones is expected to fall within these
ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those
expected this year.
Looking at previous Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone seasons, dating back to 1950, it is
apparent that the Atlantic Basin has been in an active era since 1995, with an average
of 15 named tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes per year. This is above
the long term averages of 12 named tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes
per year. It is important to remember that this is NOT
a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined when the storm is within
several days of making landfall, as their track is largely determined by weather patterns
in place at that time. Hurricane disasters can occur whether the season is active or
relatively quiet. A key point to keep in mind is that it only takes one hurricane, or even
a tropical storm, to cause a disaster; being prepared is the best way to stay safe before,
during, and after a storm. It is important to remember to prepare for hurricanes the
same way each and every year, regardless of seasonal forecasts issued by NOAA or others.
As with any forecast, there will always be some type of associated uncertainty. For seasonal
outlooks, predicting El Nino and La Nina impacts is an ongoing scientific challenge facing
climate scientists today. These forecasts generally have limited skill during the spring.
One cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be linked to a specific
storm pattern, such as several, short-lived storms or fewer, more intense, longer-lived
storms. Predictions of sea-surface temperatures, vertical wind shear, moisture, and stability
have limited skill this far in advance of the peak months (August-October) of hurricane
season. Weather patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop
and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting the nature of hurricane season.
National Hurricane Preparedness Week is from May 26th through June 1st. For daily preparedness
videos, please visit the Florida Keys National Weather Service Internet site at: www.weather.gov/keywest.