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When President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty this week annexing Crimea to great fanfare
in the Kremlin and anger in the West, a trusted lieutenant was making his way to Asia to shore
up ties with Russia's eastern allies. Forcing home the symbolism of his trip, Igor
Sechin gathered media in Tokyo the next day to warn Western governments that more sanctions
over Moscow's seizure of the Black Sea peninsula from Ukraine would be counter-productive.
The underlying message from the head of Russia's biggest oil company, Rosneft, was clear: If
Europe and the United States isolate Russia, Moscow will look East for new business, energy
deals, military contracts and political alliances. The Holy Grail for Moscow is a natural gas
supply deal with China that is apparently now close after years of negotiations. If
it can be signed when Putin visits China in May, he will be able to hold it up to show
that global power has shifted eastwards and he does not need the West.
"The worse Russia's relations are with the West, the closer Russia will want to be to
China. If China supports you, no one can say you're isolated," said Vasily Kashin, a China
expert at the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) think thank.
Some of the signs are encouraging for Putin. Last Saturday China abstained in a U.N. Security
Council vote on a draft resolution declaring invalid the referendum in which Crimea went
on to back union with Russia. Although China is nervous about referendums
in restive regions of other countries which might serve as a precedent for Tibet and Taiwan,
it has refused to criticize Moscow. The support of Beijing is vital for Putin.
Not only is China a fellow permanent member of the U.N. Security Council with whom Russia
thinks alike, it is also the world's second biggest economy and it opposes the spread
of Western-style democracy. Little wonder, then, that Putin thanked China
for its understanding over Ukraine in a Kremlin speech on Tuesday before signing the treaty
claiming back Crimea, 60 years after it was handed to Ukraine by Soviet leader Nikita
Khrushchev. Chinese President Xi Jinping showed how much
he values ties with Moscow, and Putin in particular, by making Russia his first foreign visit as
China's leader last year and attending the opening of the Winter Olympics in Sochi last
month. Many Western leaders did not go to the Games
after criticism of Russia's record on human rights. By contrast, when Putin and Xi discussed
Ukraine by telephone on March 4, the Kremlin said their positions were "close".
A strong alliance would suit both countries as a counterbalance to the United States.