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So good afternoon, I am here with Richard Laurendeau. He's the managing broker of RE/MAX
west coast which covers the Richmond market. RE/MAX west coast has been servicing the real
estate market since the late 1990's. I understand Richard that you also live and work in Richmond
and have for a number of years. So that's wonderful. So we're hoping to get some insight
from you on the Richmond market. Maybe we can talk about what's happened over 2013 and
just looking back on what surprised you, what did you see happen last year that you weren't
expecting.
I think we can it look back at 2013 and say it was a fair year. If we measure it by the
activity level. Sometimes from a homeowner's perspective it is measured by how well did
my home do in terms of appreciation. There were no great stories to tell there. It was
a generally level year. I think statistically we would say it ended up with slight gains
but the market is varied so much by location. I can share stories with you of some loss
and of upsides - blended, slight increases over the year. The health of the market we
measure more by the activity level as opposed to prices moving up or down. And from that
perspective it was a fair year.
And is that compared over a 10 yr average or did you find that over 2012.
Up over 2012, it would have been on the lower side of some previous times. But some of those
years. When you bring up the 10 year average, we have to put a perspective in place that
our market and West Vancouver's market between 2000 and 2008 enjoyed some spectacular times.
Both in terms of activity level and price appreciation. So we haven't met the mark in
that perspective. But when we were in those times, we understood them to be banner years
that didn't represent the norm. So today sometimes you'll hear some stats that say it's off from
the 10 year average. But really we have to put some perspective 2013 was a fine year,
numbers wise. Could it have been a little better? Sure. But it was a fine year.
So what were some of the surprises that came out of that year?
I don't know that I had surprises. I was pleased by the price bands that we saw being active.
We didn't expect in the Richmond market place, single family homes at $700,000 to $1.7 million
category. Very healthy in terms of sales. We're reasonably seeing price points break
the $2million mark like we've never had before in Richmond. That might be a surprise. I had
one gentleman observe to me that he was "in awe of the price points the premium end had
in our marketplace". The consistent theme in that is that people are looking for exceptional
quality. They're looking for high end finishing. They've got the money, they want to enjoy
the lifestyle.
So for 2014, coming off of a fairly stable year. What do you see happening for prices?
Within the regional RE/MAX system we're expecting modest gains coupled with moderate increase
in activity level units of sales across the lower mainland.
How do you see the pricing impacting the listings and perhaps the sales in Richmond?
We anticipate unit of sales to increase. That will require an increase in inventory. There
shouldn't be an overly large influx of inventory because that gives a downward pressure on
price. Simple economics. But there should be a fair number of listings available. Probably
an increase over what we saw this year. But the demand should help pace that and allow
us to enjoy modest gains. Modest in my world comes between 2 - 4 points.
Where do you see some of the hot spots in Richmond?
The activity level will remain in $700,000 to $1million category. But within that I think
the fun areas to look at are going to be new projects. This is not new stuff, in terms
of the aging population, and maybe they're leaving the homes and going in to the strata
lifestyle. Close the door and enjoy life and perhaps more travel. A little bit of a snowbird.
And certainly this may not have happened to the extend we thought it was going to be.
People are staying in the home longer, maybe because they want the home to entertain the
family. Maybe because they like the kids coming back. I'm not sure what that mix is. But when
they have been making those moves, it hasn't been what we traditionally thought it was
going to be. Because the aging population is not new to us. We've known it was coming
for a long time. This bubble that everyone talks about moving through the economy. And
in our case, the real estate system. That they're going to want to leave the big homes
and get to the condo lifestyle. When we thought they were going to do that we thought they'd
cash in equity. But we're finding that they're not doing that. Whether it is the $800,000
home or the $1.5million home we're finding they're taking that money and putting it into
the condo. Not necessarily looking to put money in their pockets. And as a result, they're
buying the higher end finishing.
So the downsizer is really
not downsizing just shifting to a less maintenance lifestyle. So it'll be interesting to see
that. What do you think will happen along the Olympic Oval area, there is a lot of new
home development out there. How do you think that might impact the condo market in Richmond?
That's probably the big wild card. Because there is such a phenomenal growth in that
whole strata segment in the core of Richmond. The volume would suggest to us that the market
is confident it will absorb it. But it makes me cautious to whether there will be any appreciable
gains in value until the absorption is all addressed. So lots of choose from. It also
means the consumer doesn't need to worry about "I'm going to pay more in 6 months than today
because of the shortage of inventory." They can take their time, be selective, take advantage
of the incentives that developers may have to offer. And make choices that work for them
in the long run. As opposed to, pre-2008. The buyer was at the table with a sense of
rush. "I have to make a decision, I have to make it now because there are 10 other people
behind me." And we heard all the time, people paying more than asking price. Buyers are
going to love it. That's not usually the case today.
So it sounds like it's a good time to come into Richmond, take your time, look around
and pick something that gives you the features and luxury lifestyle that you want.