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on the phone it's a pleasure to welcome back to this program
that may be may be the first guest ever i think we may have been the very first
guess before
before even i started in radio he was the first gets a little bit early use in
our practice session
uh... from the uh...
the wilbur blog and
daily coz
marcus brutus welcome to the program our conf
uh... elizabeth you're samosa buck and that's the way the ears is i've been
uh... eight plus years now
is seven months
and five decades
to stop the government
uh...
cell archaic
so give us a sense of of let's start uh... with the basically what i want to
do is i want to start with what your senses
uh... what we should be looking for in the presidential election what's going
to what's going to happen
who's gonna win by how much
as i raced to trade sports to cash in on this
uh... and then we'll look at some of the uh... the state races and then we'll
talk about how much we anticipate
the right wing uh... freaking out tomorrow
um... or i should say wednesday
what
who said doesn't give us a sense of what was this presidential election year come
down to
case i mean there
to me as far as i was concerned as races bent over him
and that's what obama had massive leads
in uh... in all the key states
that mattered and uh... axi had factored in the possibility of a disaster
happening that would not go bomb a dime indicated that it was that first debate
the fact is that obama never has
lopez trails in this in this race in and nothing in the last couple days it's has
indicated as any sort of momentum
in fact any momentum rodney hampton at risk of being has really been gone for
the last few weeks later what they said
and
it's what i've been said that act republicans you to say
it different than it was that the independent undecided voters believe
breaker miranti
actually was in the opposite racine undecided voters now pray programa
and even the most recent bellingham undecided voters they like obama more so
obama has more outside with those voters so it's it's gonna be it's i don't
particularly pink it gives me a lot of suspense in the presidential
lesson i think that
early in the night it's virginia gets called now for a bomb ultimate first
couple hours i think that's it at the ohio really clinch it does i'm not
seeing a lot of now
a lot of drama no i ran out
so uh... okay so uh... we're looking at the uh...
from electoral standpoint
it's virginia and ohio and
does a president obama need new hampshire and they tell us what your
what your map looks like some people want to
are following this thing tomorrow on the night
hi imagine you do too but i attract um...
people just don't like you're insane
i will have the there's no way that uh... obama's going ot in tomorrow
and i wanted to let you know on and on
what to to alleviate their anxiety so they should be watching for virginia
how does that what what what is the recipe there we've got
uh... carries states in two thousand four plus what
uh...
basically i mean you have to actually start the novel document for may have to
be relevant to has to be a lot of crazies they find does win that
ain't gonna happen
uh... so we have to section nine
gonna really decided selection so where are you had to go as
ivan sweated i think it's going to go bomb a but
not very relevant state
but first back to states are going to be at any time in poll closing right in the
virginia north carolina florida
all three of them are likely to be
too close to call
so they're gonna sit
icy florida rain out
obama is uh...
stats late in the head of coca process not a couple of calling a couple of the
composite fell justin gate which by allied
i think of my average amounts
lawyers basically type
now given the boating shenanigans in south florida where we're bowlers were
turned away from early balloting over the weekend
uh... back to be enough to turn l accidents that so i would have been
fairly optimistic
except that our people are being allowed the boats out
florida again uh... a florida itzkoff rebound against it's over silly rodney
king world cup florida ibridge in its call for obama again personally
ronteltap virginia collects a worst-case scenario virginia north carolina florida
goes for around me
then you have age
like when you get a look at the air about tonight
you haven't run a two hundred and forty-eight
electoral votes
he still
needs
even ohio gets in the two sixty six
again ohio is not going to go around me in the polls show anywhere between eight
thirty in five point lead right now for for obama
and again it's one of the stage for the numbers are trending opal misdirection
that the other way around so i'd like to see i'm not so much trauma uh...
democratic call it all began oksana ka literally just because it's not gonna
look at it and i wanna wait a while but
after that they are looking at michigan
uh... pennsylvania supposedly but it's not compatibility colorless
uh... wisconsin iowa colorado nevada
the final
back to states the brought up by a wisconsin and the kings solidly
in a lump in obama's hands
so that's a worst case scenario a high of pos to obama them to rummy
at two fifty sixteen exp dot one of the other states
and most likely be colorado that someone is so it looks
pre tied down again undecided seem to be breaking a promise direction
but as a vehicle state republicans have done very well in the early voting so
i would say that that's the one of the more likely states to read this cycle
it's it's did that
well in iran would have to really relieved on the map if we're looking at
that point right now and look and uh... certainly voting and whatnot
obama's bedouin virginia
florida has a fifty fifty north carolina
but we will go brownie
although
we can actually kickin it killing in the early voting
and uh... and beyond that
wisconsin that some of the uh... safely obama pilots safely obama
that donald safely obama so it's it's a map
data
isn't to be as god is that was in two thousand eight
but still amadee
about sending you the season yet the winded and bassett and then they make
sure they were lockdown even after that first debate when his natural numbers
fell
obama held steady in the battle grounds
and i were heading into election date with a great deal of muslim momentum
real momentum estate
supplement about mentally connection to see in the data
right so there you have folks
um... now you can uh... now you know well well how how far that you don't
need to freak out
until uvm
heee unless i guess uh... uh ohio that's when people should get nervous if uh...
for some reason that the higher heads to
prometheus presuming of course that people are
that uh... and i don't want to offend all of the thousands of romney voters
who i know this into this program above
ants
um...
now so give us a sense of two cents
this is you know
still years ago everybody was talking about and i certainly was one of those
people saying
there's every reason to believe the democrats again lose the senate they had
uh... three times or
three times as many
uh... candidates up for reelection
uh... war uh... you seats i should say democratic helps ease that we're going
to be uh... contested
as opposed to republicans and it doesn't look like it's gonna check out that way
yet republicans we're defending had seats never pay for defending thirty-one
and thirty seats
uh... it was what was as if the republicans for defending were in red
areas physical at the end of mississippi uh... wyoming idle
uh... utah
took a look
the kind of environment where we're going to make gains in fact
the discussion was can we hold their ground chemical the senate and
particularly since this is a two thousand class of two thousand six if
you recall in two thousand six we won uh... the majority that year
and winning elastase by
ten thousand votes twenty thousand votes i mean virginia in montana and israelis
rollins singly tight state so we have to hold the state and again is david
virginia
montana
missouri that actually had not been tougher for democrats and using yourself
basically bleak
and an amazing thing happen is is that republicans nominated a bunch of crazies
st dot really uh... godaddy
incredibly happening coming in indiana and in big mother
in theory about crazy act you got a text
by you had a opinion we had a retirement in state republican seats only became a
play
you have any evidence to asian rabbits
closest races
exactly half of them five of them are actually republicans we may actually
picked up
patrick embedded in arizona indiana main massachusetts thoughts
was that one territory
and the fact
um...
that was completely almost impossible before the election began on the flip
side budget
democratic seasoned tough states like west virginia
and florida
and that'll high up
which would look belly difficult suddenly are actually fairly safe and
and and lock down the and despite heart attack a case
it's super tax conservative billionaires who spent over thirty million dollars
enough on china a nicer brown the democrat he's a freshman is actually a
liberal firebrand in a state that's clearly not a liberal state it's a it's
a middle-of-the-road downtown st
anybody wasn't being
secret baptists and united
unni would've been shown brown
it said were seen him back to beirut resilient and headed towards an easy
reelection subs
we have any situational privately lose christina basta
we're probably gonna lose sound uh... likely lose seats in in uh... north
dakota
and uh... what you want in a
i would be tester
yet and that's a lot and
although the
people bid up in two thousand six and so you have ec seven were a plausible you
were looking at community called the senate
right now the worst case for democrats is that the we have a status quo
and actually just
thirty three forty seven
at the end of the election because we're going to get this evening within a peek
at the scene massachusetts
and it looks
and i want to use it but it looks like in the exit at the scene in indiana
thanks to you at which america murdoch's um...
tolerate being a gift from god so
weeping gifted
this is or
republic
uh... after candidates and as a whole horrible republican message and hispanic
got sent to us
and we may
actually come out of his best case scenario you may come out of this with
uh... plus four
uh... eight fifty seven twenty three senate now latitude
dot right that it happened and
uh... a mechanic
on my best guess right now so they didn't aplenty every bit of
fifty four forty six which given the map that we have and the pre-election
picture
we'd only seats would be insanely
will credited for the democrats
well what's what do you think uh... i do think there's a good chance for tammy
duckworth and uh... in wisconsin where you think that worksheet would come and
give me a massachusetts
uh... potentially indiana
uh...
do you think uh...
it's a it's at
at the parliament
in nineteen always going to attend
it seems like a pretty good for that we already have that seats that senate pick
up as one of those difficult holds
uh...
and
fingers crossed by republicans in the recall right so uh...
where where do you think we'll put that up there for three
are pa possibilities any right now
mean is into paper entities as in
at st
battle offsets we're gonna be partly offset by the bhaskar
ginny by this one
after that were actually very competitive and remain seats we may have
seen a couple of north dakota
it's close enough
and the uh... democratic and it is good enough for a minute we may actually
whole itself
that may actually be one of the the almost like being
out one of the most likely next where
we lose the faster we pick up maybe pick a massachusetts
now you may pick up in vienna i'm feeling pretty good about indiana
and i'm not going to be about north dakota again at least as its plus one
sub of those areas are actually quite possible
i think as i was getting away from a semester will pick up arizona
uh... in nevada
upon
but i'll close tricky states
the last three cycles the point has been horribly off because they don't know how
to a poll
and it's just
uh... going into the two thousand an election
senate majority leader carrie meek was supposed to lose by about two to three
quarters of the points etc
he won by five
at now
our candidate nevada
eyesight berkeley is losing by two to three points
does that mean that
destroying disaster will repeat itself until when
you know past performance is no guarantee of future acts
uh... what happens in the future so
other constituency that was a rugby ken but they have been run some cautiously
optimistic about it the rain on submitted date i would have to see that
we're not going to win it
but again the biggest in
or earlier on in about a quickly cycles in a row
all right so let's uh... let's move to the house briefly there's uh...
there's little chance the democrats if any they're going to uh...
uh... pickup
uh... coordinate take control of the house i think at this point
and the question is and
will the pick up any seats at all
what's your sense and that we talked about the reasons
quite a bit on this program i think the overriding one is probably the
redistricting that took place
into half on the two thousand ten census there's also i guess uh...
part of that is also we've lost some opportunities in california with a new
primary system uh...
in a sense if you think there are other reasons
uh... if the uh... did the deed triple ceded a decent job and and what you
think the outlook looks like
it's been one of those of the year
the house has been very strange because the scene i've seen a senate we've seen
that the numbers will be a democratic direction
honesty about that very well over the summer uni's
hicfa after the first debate but he's rebounded
uh... he's had to what it looks like a comfortable re-election victory
the house to look at the house generically at what you ask
holding up
but your point
eight about for the benefit of the republican dennis pinpricks deadlock to
a very slight democratic advantage the entire cycle
to pick up
bs
house we would have to have to have about a five to ten point lead
in internet calling
we haven't at best
and i'm not quite sure i understand by or or or quite grasping
what the dynamics are there but part of it is redistricting obviously
the shorter most
audible incumbents
uh...
part of it is actually a king sitting out of money
to protect money
doesn't have a lot of fact the presidential level we haven't seen it
have a lot of the fact that the senate level
i actually do you think it's having an effect down about where people art as
well-known in obviously
congressmen are and women are very well-known mysore
bummed out
putting money has affected it right now i would say maybe but it can well t
if i was saying that there wasn't any gains
uh... there's this
and at that but that
use you is uh... but we need to twenty-five we're not gonna get twenty
five
right and uh... what about uh... what about michelle bachman
your two cents way way way she is going to exit uh...
stage at this right stage crazy crazy girl
that's it's really a m
out
it's it's it's a conservative district
it's a republican district the fact that that raises even competitive just shows
how terrible
either candidate she has become a part of touchy as their district there were
tapes clearly see cover
enough to overcome the republican toby that district
justice a black
i gotta stay down
there's a ton of money pouring into that this trip from both sides in the us it
is
republicans dot please feel the heat i would give the x_-two to bachmann just
based on under demographics of the district but the fact that this thing is
you don't competitive makes me think makes the ballot
late-night like addiction it
it can very well she cannot that legacy here knocked out speaking in iowa
uh... unless it's lowered a
and that joel osteen illinois job losses a goner
allah blessed this request
every six fifty fifty minutes that's not that i haven't seen any never thought of
that i what
uh... race but those facts
christine though samia
and kings
apso amount
sure what's going on there but given that the numbers and iowa in general are
tenants with obama's traction that exceeded *** and hopefully about if we
were able to knock out the and as far as that'd be a successful attorney
do you do you think i mean when i do and i think of what surprises me about uh...
congress even knowing that this sort of uh... the structural
difficulties that democrats face
in in uh... in this election you know
the redistricting accepted and and also the
i think you're actually write about the uh...
citizens united money i think it makes them
much bigger impact in these races you know you can come in with a million
dollars you can buy all sorts of that time and and a lot of these districts
uh... you can really just uh...
just inundate people with it
do you think that there was
it seems to me
that part of the problem was
that paul ryan was not nationalized enough like some of the catholic
medicare and so security which seemed to me to be the most sort of
bread-and-butter
uh...
most easily digestible issues
or people running for congress
were not exploited
paul ryan was just simply not exploited enough
and perhaps by present old bomber it for it to filter down to the congressional
races
ear not clearly that didn't happen and the fact that
democrats have an advantage on medicare but it's on a major damage is part of
the problem and indeed a should have been able to write it
the reality though and uh... in
this is profiting and as a liberal
is that
one of the democratic super tax priorities that a focus group
and he basically told me attendees
but the right and what's
he said
doubt he said at mit romney
but we know he supports all others
and the focus group recipients
dot it was sold
ludicrous that the refused to believe that
they treated as just as a political nonsense lies
good it was so crazy at them
it they just did not believe it was chips
but i suspect this is what's happening in the least essentially democrats talk
about them and that's why not
wanna eliminate medicare
and people think that's just such a cruel resi being
that nobody would actually want to get rid of medicare
but they refused to believe it
and again and republicans have done
decent job of muddying the waters with that
eight thousand times really claimed democrats cutting back medicare by seven
and eight billion dollars bottle by race
so they have ninety muddy the water and democrats had seen that that often
taking at the side of your falling
the focus feels that people just want buying it
and needed a temperature damaged by a
clearly
big into the job in communicating that to to uh...
two dollars and if there's one big failure
in independent bank strategy this year that is exactly and i think you can put
it i would i would add that you know we had like a week after paul ryan was
picked
joe biden got out there wasn't a was in a couple inhibit this twice in one day
who's in a couple cafes i think it was in all hi al
uh... i've matured maybe was pennsylvania
and he obey sickly said
hike down to you
hard ministration will not make any cuts whatsoever disor security idea flat-out
guarantee you he said
and since that day those words have not been repeated
we've heard
um... we will not privatize that we've heard we have no difference between it
hyped-up with them
massive failure and it it's also a scary failure going for it because i think
the only reason why you don't exploit that in the campaign is if you have a
weird integrity uh... to the idea that you're going do you need to create some
space
to actually go ahead and makes them
two weeks uh... to you know cut five or ten fifteen twenty percent of
uh... in old person's pension uh... down the road
uh... it seems to me which is
which i think
there's a real electoral prize that it's gonna be paid at very least on the house
level i think because of it and i think uh...
uh... it's uh... it it should be it should set up alarm bells for everybody
but
uh... beyond that
tomorrow
you are
i don't know how you know i know people there are people who who are
more into the numbers into the uh... to actions today and has some idea but
uh... most of them got their started your site anyways uh... so
who will you be following tomorrow
of course we've got a and live lives that daily cuz
but what waiters feeds
what uh... sites would you be following uh... tomorrow
catalytic prototype time
incredible role
uh... then
and
many are grand isle and and use it for details
uh... dot ralston in nevada as a couple local journalists in some of these key
states that connects eerily
kids some context
so the numbers
but i gotta say the elections demand and that the elections in the daily coz is
sort of the all-star of bunch of people on the web that were really good
elections
in approaching
severely because elections uh... whenever assets impasse and the people
in that respect ceasefire dot barely dispatch economy company numbers
and in doing projections based on those numbers on where we stayed too tall
so when we were not quite the right the act
of people
at the spot
but uh...
obviously at at the most part
ivory on twitter and and uh... s_a_t_ the history makes antibodies present
here's the gist of the d_n_a_ comes out on that sock
have been putting a lot of the best activity
greg road sure allston as they said
that detail
puking
dances
technical
list
now people don't realize this but uh...
uh...
exhale t_v_a_ and you go
and uh... great we've got that would be but realize that um...
uh...
that uh...
that makes over gotta start it uh... daily counts is uh... poblano doing the
same type and number crunching
it's their cousins i have'nt part numbers is that seems to me that's why
because of that reality based community because
when i go out and that feeling here is it based on the data
my certainty
doesn't make some uncertainty is based on numbers now there's always
that off chance that every poll is wrong and considers i write that everybody's
wrong
not really likely because
access to the that
and it's it's it's i've got in trouble
in my lap election pronounced occasions
one x across the data and i try to grab rationalize twice that look and it's
good for democrats
they don't exactly everything that they run in the past ratcheted up none of
these unit data interface uh... actor of tomorrow
how
crazy do you think the right wing is going to become
uh... thursday
i mean assuming assuming that we have results uh... by tuesday
into wednesday there in shock i guess you know like that you have like a
twenty four-hour period where i think like you're just total shock
how crazy do you think they're going to come on thursday because this is
i mean this is
i remember how crushing
uh... two thousand four was
uh... we all anticipated that carrie was gonna win
they were exit poll
we were convinced of it uh... maybe this is what you're pointing to in terms of
data because now i go back and i look at those polls i go that billy
and look that good knows only three polls that i must have ignored every
other paul
uh... back but he might have that
and trouble
uh...
there are already kind of crazy and i i don't you think you have apparently got
some really cute eighty percent above romney voters are convinced he's going
away
yet another trouble
and uh... in tibet saint anne's occurs between us into that support message
wasn't anything we knew we were going to lose in two thousand targeting try to
rationalize it away are creating all to reality
any acted as intense acts
item we got the next day crashed
and i knew it was coming who are prepared so they're not prepared for
what's covered up which is gonna make it more time and enjoy it while i say
candidates and sadistic pleasure out of that
but they are ready
making excuses any eta ready titles arcane
it's um... that's a hurricane
it so that he saw as a red state that you c_n_n_ that series on c_n_n_
ise everyone because the uh... pressures coming
i saw that fifty thousand feet i got a behavior data fifty thousand the looking
down
uh... practice that is ok areas
uh... and that yet people at because i a cone
whitmore issue of those cells there can be at the
the secret police
with the ones who both all polls
rallying one and a landslide nineteen stating
and of course he planing he's blaming us
uh... sandy just like a lot of these other people at the site at
heads because it got out of this land
in did not do they're gonna get sign off and he did stick
doughnuts i mean even if by some miracle ronnie meticulous opulent evil inside
each is no way in hell it's gonna happen so
uh... they have to start walking back but the crazies online and he's talking
about the was front c_n_n_ m and antiseptic as a possible answer
she worked as online
uh...
they are absolutely presenting themselves
i'm i'm looking forward to the civil war looking forward to the uh...
to being romney um...
was too
to uh... liberal ya even released a minute
turkey has never on the in the polls when he was the last
we have been killed
when is a severe conservative is only the first debate was all about mit
romney finally making that turn
to the center he'd actually got to the left on that president obama couple of
things
and that there's no doubt in my mind that they're going to move further to
the right
let me ask you this quickly
jump right in again the other day
repeated what president obama said uh... has said multiple times he said it
before the two thousand ten election he said it again
and that is
when the republicans when they're going to realize that now they have to deal
do you think that's the case and i'm very i'm very uptight about the uh...
but uh... the the grand bargain
and that uh...
i'm not gonna talk too much about it now because uh... what plane time to talk
about in the next few days
affects our civil war
a and exactly and
and of
why do you think joe biden says that he's just because
they they think to the extent that they re any
and undecided voters out there they wanted here this notion that we can get
along after the election
yet people like that bipartisan crap yet is that it was steeple who don't pay
attention in the shade so they don't know but there are two sides that are
completely percent
uh... opposing one-sided specs insane they don't know itself
n eyes realized this and this is
liaising with ticket did you watch the debate at the c_n_n_ bio focus groups
alright everytime
either by you
or
obama extract
or even bromley for that matter
the numbers without any sort undecided voters rights
it's lucky
and days what everybody catalog they can't be bothered it does you know it's
happening and again for whatever reason some of his legitimate people are having
difficult lives when i see that whenever there's conflict it means that they
actually have to engage more
and they are definitional e people who don't want to gage in politics
so that you have a situation where that two three percent by percent undecided
at this point
that's the top
you know what is your tax i want to hear about how we're all gonna get alliance
income but yene be wonderful
which is why run he's been talking about how bipartisan ears even those record of
that is you know
uh...
in that file alarming binary because the abuser last
that crappy don't wanna hear complex you can't get into anything
and at this point if you don't have your bases with you unite europe s allows he
better have your bases with you you know so that we have to go out and other
yes about
bipartisanship
about what they understand part of combat aside last four years that she
believed that and i'm hoping that the new his second term obama
is going to be less uh...
less uh...
mei about republicans wanting to work with them
uh... well
and think
uh... help that now you can stay on the house of summaries uh... his political
leanings
have also gone away but i know i'm not so convinced about that but we shall see
we will uh... will we will plan i suspect
uh... you're right said that there will be a bit of
and at the very least it's civil console in the context of those of us
on the left with this whole grand bargain thing but uh...
that uh... that uh... we've got plenty of time to to save our picky park powder
dry for that
uh... tomorrow be that
the very day
um... but um... marcus thank you so much for joining
riser thanks so much
margaritas folks you check out the daily karo has are you will find there
all sorts of it really is
they they're just their obsessive the that they've got to know if there was
spreadsheets and whatnot and
uh... you know who will seem to go to unsecured polls on skewed police dot com