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Is a rainy weather pattern set to move back into the area? That is the question we'll
address in this morning's weather video briefing from the National Weather Service in Tallahassee.
This video was recorded around 5 AM on August 10th.
Right now, the jet stream is positioned well northwest of our area, as indicated by this
map. Tallahassee is the red star in the Florida Panhandle. The jet stream is a belt of faster
winds aloft that helps steer weather systems. Changes in the jet stream can allow large
air masses to shift. Meanwhile, over the southeastern United States, a ridge of high pressure has
kept daily thunderstorms a bit more sporadic as of late.
However, the jet stream should develop a large dip in the central and eastern United States
by late next week. This sort of feature is commonly referred to as a trough. This pattern
change could bring more active weather to the area.
Why is that exactly? If you split the trough into two halves, you can make some generalizations
about the weather patterns that you might see in certain areas. Since we will be out
ahead of the trough, we will focus on that region. In general, out ahead of a large trough
you will see increasing moisture, and conditions will be more favorable for vertical motion
in the atmosphere. The combination of moisture and rising motion favors greater amounts of
clouds and precipitation.
Therefore, you can probably already guess what we are going to tell you about how the
weather will shape up for late next week. Let's look at the period from Thursday to
next Monday, or August 15th to the 19th. The NWS Climate Prediction Center, which issues
long range forecasts, is calling for a 68% chance of ABOVE normal precipitation in the
days that we have listed. Or in other words, it is likely we will get into another rainy
pattern in about 5 days or so.
Here are the basic things that you can take away from this briefing. First, storm coverage
will increase gradually from this weekend through Tuesday. Second, a rainy weather pattern
is likely from the middle of the week into next weekend. And finally, it is too early
for specifics, such as exact rainfall amounts or the possibility of flooding. At this point,
keep an eye on the forecast, and if you are looking to make outdoor plans this week you
may want to schedule them earlier in the week.
Thank you for watching. Find us on the web at weather [dot] gov [slash] tallahassee,
on Twitter at NWSTallahassee, or on Facebook by searching for US National Weather Service
Tallahassee.