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PILOT DID, TAKEN THE PLANE OFF
FOR WHATEVER NEFARIOUS REASONS
IT MAY BE?
>> YES, IT'S WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY.
WITHOUT SOME GROUND-BASED NAV
AID THIS WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO
DO.
TWO DISCOURAGING PROBLEMS HERE.
ONE OF THEM IS, IF EVENTUALLY
THEY RECOVER THE COCKPIT VOICE
RECORDER IT MAY BE OF NO USE
WHATSOEVER.
IT'S A TWO-HOUR LOOP.
WHAT YOU WANT TO KNOW IS WHAT
WAS HAPPENING WHEN THE PLANE
MADE THAT LEFT TURN AND LEFT ITS
ASSIGNED FLIGHT PATH.
THAT'S GOING TO BE LONG GONE
BECAUSE IT WILL BE ERASED OVER
BY SUBSEQUENT CONVERSATION IF
THERE WAS ANY.
THAT'S PROBLEM NUMBER ONE.
PROBLEM NUMBER TWO IS, IF YOU
EVENTUALLY FIND FLOATING
WRECKAGE, IT'S BEEN IN THE WATER
FOR A WEEK.
IF IT'S MOVING AT 2 KNOTS IT'S
GOING TO BE HUNDREDS OF MILES
FROM WHERE IT STARTED.
YOU'VE GOT TO GO BACK AND BACK
CALCULATE WHERE TO LOOK ON THE
OCEAN FLOOR.
SO THIS GETS HARDER AND HARDER.
IN ADDITION, THE PINGERS ON THE
BLACK BOXES ARE SUPPOSED TO LAST
30 DAYS GIVE OR TAKE.
SEVEN OF THOSE DAYS ARE GONE.
CONFIDENCE THAT WE'RE GOING TO
FIGURE OUT PRECISELY WHAT HAPPEN
HERE IS DECLINING.
>> SO MATTHEW WALD, FASCINATING
ANALYSIS THERE.
BUT WHAT IS YOUR GUT FEELING
WITH A LOT OF EXPERTISE IN YOUR
LOCKER ABOUT WHAT YOU THINK IS
PROBABLY HAPPENED HERE?
>> WE HAVE INCREASINGLY DETAILED
THEORIES BASED ON VERY LITTLE
INFORMATION.
IT'S VERY HARD TO SAY.
IT IS EASY TO RECONCILE THE
CHANGES IN ALTITUDE GIVEN THE
LACK OF FIDELITY OF THE RA
RADAR.
THE MALAYSIANS WON'T SAY HOW
GOOD THEIR RADAR IS.
THAT'S A DEFENSE SECRET.
IT'S HARDER TO RECONCILE THE